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Steven Jackson and Running Back Records

by CHASE STUART on JULY 2, 2014

One of my very first posts at Football Perspective looked at the weighted career winning percentages of various running backs. You can calculate a player’s weighted career winning percentage in lots of ways, but here’s what I did:
Calculate the percentage of yards from scrimmage a running back gained in each season as a percentage of his career yards from scrimmage. For example, if a player gained 10% of his yards from scrimmage in 1999 and the team went 15-1 that season, then 10% of the running back’s weighted winning percentage would be 0.9375. This is designed to align a running back’s best seasons with his team’s records in those years. For example, Emmitt Smith played 2 of his 15 seasons with the Cardinals. But since he gained only 6.5% of his career yards from scrimmage in Arizona, the Cardinals’ records those years count for only 6.5% — and not, say, 13.3% — of his career weighted winning percentage.
Add the weighted winning percentages from each season of the player’s career to get a career weighted winning percentage.
At the time, Steven Jackson had the lowest average adjusted winning percentage of any running back in my study. Since then, Jackson played for the 7-8-1 Rams in 2012 and the 4-12 Falcons in 2013. That upped his adjusted winning percentage from 0.292 to 0.307. Among the 129 running backs in NFL history with at least 7,000 yards from scrimmage, only James Wilder had a worse career adjusted winning percentage.

The running back with the highest adjusted winning percentage is Lawrence McCutcheon, who spent the majority of his career with the Rams before end-of-career cups of coffee with Denver, Seattle, and Buffalo. The table below shows the first and last year for each running back, the teams he played for, his career yards from scrimmage, and his adjusted winning percentage. McCutcheon played on those great Rams teams of the ’70s, gaining the bulk of his yards from ’73 to ’77. As a result, his adjusted winning % is an incredible 0.741:

Rk Name First Yr Last Yr Teams YFS Adj Win%
1 Lawrence McCutcheon 1972 1981 RAM-DEN-SEA-BUF 8377 0.741
2 Chuck Foreman 1973 1980 MIN-NWE 9106 0.733
3 Roger Craig 1983 1993 SFO-RAI-MIN 13100 0.723
4 Terrell Davis 1995 2001 DEN 8887 0.719
5 Franco Harris 1972 1984 PIT-SEA 14407 0.71
6 Jim Taylor 1958 1967 GNB-NOR 10353 0.709
7 Michael Turner 2004 2012 SDG-ATL 7866 0.708
8 Tony Nathan 1979 1987 MIA 7135 0.703
9 Tom Matte 1961 1972 BAL 7515 0.701
10 Alex Webster 1955 1964 NYG 7317 0.694
11 Jim Brown 1957 1965 CLE 14811 0.691
12 Mark van Eeghen 1974 1983 OAK-NWE 8234 0.686
13 Dorsey Levens 1994 2004 GNB-PHI-NYG-PHI 7289 0.686
14 Kevin Faulk 1999 2011 NWE 7308 0.683
15 Calvin Hill 1969 1981 DAL-WAS-CLE 8944 0.682
16 Tony Dorsett 1977 1988 DAL-DEN 16293 0.672
17 Robert Smith 1993 2000 MIN 8110 0.665
18 Thurman Thomas 1988 2000 BUF-MIA 16532 0.663
19 Leroy Kelly 1964 1973 CLE 9555 0.659
20 Frank Gifford 1952 1964 NYG 9043 0.656
21 Ray Rice 2008 2013 BAL 9214 0.655
22 Edgerrin James 1999 2009 IND-ARI-SEA 15610 0.651
23 Lenny Moore 1956 1967 BAL 11213 0.645
24 Marcus Allen 1982 1997 RAI-KAN 17654 0.645
25 Larry Brown Jr. 1969 1976 WAS 8360 0.644
26 Larry Csonka 1968 1979 MIA-NYG-MIA 8901 0.639
27 Eddie George 1996 2004 HOU-TEN-DAL 12668 0.625
28 Rick Casares 1955 1966 CHI-WAS-MIA 7385 0.619
29 Ahman Green 1998 2009 SEA-GNB-HOU-GNB 12088 0.617
30 Garrison Hearst 1993 2004 PHO-ARI-CIN-SFO-DEN 10031 0.606
31 Keith Byars 1986 1998 PHI-MIA-NWE-NYJ 8770 0.604
32 Brian Westbrook 2002 2010 PHI-SFO 10275 0.599
33 Shaun Alexander 2000 2008 SEA-WAS 10973 0.597
34 Ricky Watters 1992 2001 SFO-PHI-SEA 14891 0.593
35 Mike Garrett 1966 1973 KAN-SDG 7491 0.591
36 Wendell Tyler 1977 1986 RAM-SFO 8194 0.585
37 Neal Anderson 1986 1993 CHI 8929 0.584
38 Walter Payton 1975 1987 CHI 21264 0.582
39 Joe Perry 1948 1963 SFO-BAL-SFO 11744 0.581
40 Emmitt Smith 1990 2004 DAL-ARI 21579 0.579
41 LaDainian Tomlinson 2001 2011 SDG-NYJ 18456 0.577
42 Joe Cribbs 1980 1988 BUF-SFO-IND-MIA 7555 0.573
43 Wilbert Montgomery 1977 1985 PHI-DET 9291 0.572
44 Lydell Mitchell 1972 1980 BAL-SDG-RAM 9737 0.571
45 Duce Staley 1997 2006 PHI-PIT 8372 0.571
46 Earnest Byner 1984 1997 CLE-WAS-CLE-BAL 12866 0.563
47 John Riggins 1971 1985 NYJ-WAS 13442 0.563
48 Mike Alstott 1996 2006 TAM 7372 0.559
49 Curt Warner 1983 1990 SEA-RAM 8311 0.556
50 Jamal Lewis 2000 2009 BAL-CLE 12486 0.556
51 Stephen Davis 1996 2006 WAS-CAR-STL 9546 0.554
52 Curtis Martin 1995 2005 NWE-NYJ 17430 0.553
53 Matt Forte 2008 2013 CHI 9585 0.552
54 Antowain Smith 1997 2005 BUF-NWE-TEN-NOR 7863 0.55
55 Marshall Faulk 1994 2005 IND-STL 19154 0.549
56 Ken Willard 1965 1974 SFO-STL 8289 0.547
57 LeSean McCoy 2009 2013 PHI 7600 0.546
58 Marshawn Lynch 2007 2013 BUF-SEA 8921 0.546
59 Eric Dickerson 1983 1993 RAM-IND-RAM-IND-RAI-ATL 15396 0.543
60 Clem Daniels 1960 1968 DTX-OAK-SFO 8452 0.542
61 Warrick Dunn 1997 2008 TAM-ATL-TAM 15306 0.54
62 Terry Allen 1991 2001 MIN-WAS-NWE-NOR-BAL 10215 0.54
63 DeAngelo Williams 2006 2013 CAR 8204 0.538
64 Sam Cunningham 1973 1982 NWE 7358 0.538
65 Jerome Bettis 1993 2005 RAM-STL-PIT 15111 0.537
66 Priest Holmes 1997 2007 BAL-KAN 11134 0.537
67 Bill Brown 1961 1974 CHI-MIN 9021 0.534
68 Fred Taylor 1998 2010 JAX-NWE 14079 0.531
69 Tiki Barber 1997 2006 NYG 15632 0.527
70 Hugh McElhenny 1952 1964 SFO-MIN-NYG-DET 8528 0.526
71 Delvin Williams 1974 1981 SFO-MIA-GNB 7013 0.524
72 Freeman McNeil 1981 1992 NYJ 11035 0.524
73 Don Perkins 1961 1968 DAL 7527 0.523
74 Ricky Williams 1999 2011 NOR-MIA-BAL 12615 0.523
75 Chester Taylor 2002 2011 BAL-MIN-CHI-ARI 7064 0.523
76 Tony Collins 1981 1990 NWE-MIA 7003 0.519
77 Adrian Peterson 2007 2013 MIN 11812 0.517
78 James Brooks 1981 1992 SDG-CIN-CLE-TAM 11583 0.516
79 Clinton Portis 2002 2010 DEN-WAS 11941 0.515
80 Frank Gore 2005 2013 SFO 12739 0.515
81 Deuce McAllister 2001 2008 NOR 7816 0.513
82 Abner Haynes 1960 1967 DTX-KAN-DEN-MIA-NYJ 8165 0.511
83 Ronnie Harmon 1986 1997 BUF-SDG-HOU-CHI-TEN 8850 0.509
84 Chris Johnson 2008 2013 TEN 9968 0.508
85 William Andrews 1979 1986 ATL 8633 0.507
86 George Rogers 1981 1987 NOR-WAS 7544 0.507
87 Mike Pruitt 1976 1986 CLE-BUF-KAN 9238 0.506
88 Reggie Bush 2006 2013 NOR-MIA-DET 8404 0.506
89 Rodney Hampton 1990 1997 NYG 8206 0.503
90 John Henry Johnson 1954 1966 SFO-DET-PIT-HOU 8281 0.503
91 Thomas Jones 2000 2011 ARI-TAM-CHI-NYJ-KAN 12614 0.501
92 John Williams 1986 1995 SEA-PIT 9662 0.5
93 Willis McGahee 2004 2013 BUF-BAL-DEN-CLE 9813 0.498
94 Ottis Anderson 1979 1992 STL-NYG 13335 0.494
95 Billy Sims 1980 1984 DET 7178 0.494
96 Barry Sanders 1989 1998 DET 18190 0.493
97 Darrin Nelson 1982 1992 MIN-SDG-MIN 7001 0.488
98 Joe Washington 1977 1985 SDG-BAL-WAS-ATL 8252 0.486
99 James Stewart 1995 2002 JAX-DET 7556 0.474
100 Joe Morrison 1959 1972 NYG 7467 0.473
101 Earl Campbell 1978 1985 HOU-NOR-HOU-NOR 10213 0.473
102 Larry Johnson 2003 2011 KAN-CIN-KAN-WAS-MIA 7596 0.466
103 Chuck Muncie 1976 1984 NOR-SDG 9025 0.465
104 Ted Brown 1979 1986 MIN 7396 0.462
105 Donny Anderson 1966 1974 GNB-STL 7244 0.457
106 MacArthur Lane 1968 1978 STL-GNB-KAN 7442 0.456
107 John David Crow 1958 1968 CRD-STL-SFO 8662 0.456
108 Greg Pruitt 1973 1984 CLE-RAI 8741 0.454
109 Charlie Garner 1994 2004 PHI-SFO-OAK-TAM 10808 0.452
110 Eric Metcalf 1989 2002 CLE-ATL-SDG-ARI-CAR-WAS-GNB 7964 0.452
111 Ronnie Brown 2005 2013 MIA-PHI-SDG 7250 0.44
112 Michael Pittman 1998 2008 ARI-TAM-DEN 9139 0.439
113 Dick Bass 1960 1969 RAM 7258 0.438
114 Herschel Walker 1986 1997 DAL-MIN-PHI-NYG-DAL 13084 0.43
115 Timmy Brown 1959 1968 GNB-PHI-BAL 7261 0.423
116 Corey Dillon 1997 2006 CIN-NWE 13154 0.42
117 Jamaal Charles 2008 2013 KAN 7798 0.418
118 Travis Henry 2001 2007 BUF-TEN-DEN 7037 0.413
119 Tony Galbreath 1976 1987 NOR-MIN-NYG 8138 0.413
120 Maurice Jones-Drew 2006 2013 JAX 10944 0.41
121 Floyd Little 1967 1975 DEN 8741 0.407
122 Larry Centers 1990 2003 PHO-ARI-WAS-BUF-NWE 8985 0.406
123 Chris Warren 1990 2000 SEA-DAL-PHI 9631 0.403
124 Gerald Riggs 1982 1991 ATL-WAS 9704 0.38
125 O.J. Simpson 1969 1979 BUF-SFO 13378 0.374
126 Fred Jackson 2007 2013 BUF 7260 0.367
127 Ollie Matson 1952 1966 CRD-RAM-DET-PHI 8458 0.313
128 Steven Jackson 2004 2013 STL-ATL 14193 0.307
129 James Wilder 1981 1990 TAM-DET-WAS 9508 0.294

Among active runners with at least 7,000 yards from scrimmage, Ray Rice has the highest adjusted winning percentage at 0.655. The Ravens have posted a 62-34 record since Rice was drafted by Baltimore in 2008; that’s a winning percentage of 0.646. Rice’s adjusted winning percentage is slightly higher largely because Baltimore had a 0.594 winning percentage in ’08 and ’13, Rice’s two worst years.

Maurice Jones-Drew has an adjusted winning percentage of 0.410, which comes in at #120 on the list of 129 backs. Buffalo’s Fred Jackson has an adjusted winning percentage of 0.367, which ranks 126th. At least for me, that really puts in perspective how bad Steven Jackson’s teams have been: despite winning 6% fewer games, he only comes in two slots below Jackson.

Five running backs have 18,000 yards from scrimmage: Emmitt Smith, Walter Payton, Marshall Faulk, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Barry Sanders. You won’t be surprised to see Sanders have the lowest adjusted winning percentage in that group at 0.493. But Payton, Tomlinson, and Smith all have adjusted winning percentages of 58%, yet it seems as though only one of those players gets remembered as playing for dominant teams.

McCutcheon and Chuck Foreman each made 5 Pro Bowls; Roger Craig has been a Hall of Fame finalist, and Terrell Davis has a pretty strong HOF case, too. Those four backs also have the four highest adjusted winning percentages. That’s pretty interesting, although I’m not quite sure what it means. I do think each player has been a bit marginalized because they played for great teams, and I suppose the numbers here support that theory.

Thomas Jones has an adjusted winning percentage of 0.501, but that only places him at #91 on the list. The fact that 71% of the running backs with at least 7,000 yards from scrimmage had a career adjusted winning record says something, although it is probably too difficult to separate causation from correlation here.