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I calculated the statistical variance in passer rating for the following QBs in 2018.

Goff 993.16
Cousins 359.28
Luck 453.73
Ryan 428.05
Brady 405.01

Here's 2 more...

Mahomes 396.63
Roethlisberger 592.67

Goff has more than double the variance in his 2018 passer rating as those other 4 QBs. This clearly supports my argument that Goff has more variability in his performance than the top QBs.

I'd be happy to do any other QB upon request. And if anyone wants to know how this is calculated its as follows...

the variance combines all the values in a data set to produce a measure of spread. ... It is calculated as the average squared deviation of each number from the mean of a data set. For example, for the numbers 1, 2, and 3 the mean is 2 and the variance is 0.667.

[moklerman]

Plus the problem is that the mean excluces variations. Averages and means hide those things. If you ask, did Goff play at a consistenly high level for all of 2018? then the answer, quite simply, is no. He had a rough up and down patch at the end. Even if you exclude the Chicago game, that's 4 combined games with a completion percentage of 56.6%, 1 TD v 3 INTs, & an avg. qb rating of 69.2. Even setting aside the Chicago game, 4 below avg games out of 7 means inconsistent play. He did not sustain his best level play and did not play to his own mean in those 4 games.

You don't ignore big trends like that in talking about a football player's season.

Yeah, it's the timing of his bad games, IMO, that are more cause for concern. It isn't that he had a few bad games throughout the year, all QB's have those. It's that he was a much different QB after the bye than he was before. And that's not just last year. For pretty much all of 2017 and then the first 10 weeks of 2018 he was a dominant, elite level QB. Since the bye, his struggles have outweighed his successes. Even in the "good" games like AZ and SF, he didn't look like his previous self with timing and accuracy although he did put up good TD numbers.

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Yeah, it's the timing of his bad games, IMO, that are more cause for concern. It isn't that he had a few bad games throughout the year, all QB's have those. It's that he was a much different QB after the bye than he was before. And that's not just last year. For pretty much all of 2017 and then the first 10 weeks of 2018 he was a dominant, elite level QB. Since the bye, his struggles have outweighed his successes. Even in the "good" games like AZ and SF, he didn't look like his previous self with timing and accuracy although he did put up good TD numbers.

While I agree that his performance were on the whole worse after the bye, and that is supported by his negative trend line, I thought Goff played a whale of a game against the Saints in the NFCC game. So I'm not too concerned that he simply falls apart at the end of the year. I think its more a case of running into tougher defenses and McVay not having answers that would give Goff better options.

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The idea here is to have open minded discussions that considers not only the positives but also potential negatives.

Okay, let's have an open minded discussion. About that discrepancy between his highest QB rating and his lowest, do you stand by that being "an issue"?

[moklerman]

While I agree that his performance were on the whole worse after the bye, and that is supported by his negative trend line, I thought Goff played a whale of a game against the Saints in the NFCC game. So I'm not too concerned that he simply falls apart at the end of the year. I think its more a case of running into tougher defenses and McVay not having answers that would give Goff better options.

I wouldn't say he had a bad game against the Saints and he did do some good things and did them at key times. But those key times actually came when the honestly shouldn't have. Goff and the Rams did well to take advantage after they were given a huge gift but up to that point, Goff was still not quite himself IMO. Not bad but not looking quite right.

The comeback and win vs. the Saints was encouraging and I'd hoped that it would lead to him getting back on track with his pre-bye self. Unfortunately, he was as bad as ever in the next game.

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Okay, let's have an open minded discussion. About that discrepancy between his highest QB rating and his lowest, do you stand by that being "an issue"?

By itself its not an issue. That is, if he didn't have 4 games under a 60 rating, then I wouldn't be concerned by it. What it does is contribute to the measured inconsistency in his game in an extreme example.

Did you look at the variance stats that I posted? Thats what I'm concerned about. I want to see more consistency in his game.

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I wouldn't say he had a bad game against the Saints and he did do some good things and did them at key times. But those key times actually came when the honestly shouldn't have. Goff and the Rams did well to take advantage after they were given a huge gift but up to that point, Goff was still not quite himself IMO. Not bad but not looking quite right.

The comeback and win vs. the Saints was encouraging and I'd hoped that it would lead to him getting back on track with his pre-bye self. Unfortunately, he was as bad as ever in the next game.

I think you are way off in your assessment of his performance in the Saints game. Every football guy on the set in the Superdome, Strahan, Jimmy Johnson, Tony Gonzales, and Bradshaw was raving about Goff after the game. They were unanimous in their praise of how he performed in an extremely difficult environment.

[/zn/]

Yeah, it's the timing of his bad games, IMO, that are more cause for concern. It isn't that he had a few bad games throughout the year, all QB's have those. It's that he was a much different QB after the bye than he was before. And that's not just last year. For pretty much all of 2017 and then the first 10 weeks of 2018 he was a dominant, elite level QB. Since the bye, his struggles have outweighed his successes. Even in the "good" games like AZ and SF, he didn't look like his previous self with timing and accuracy although he did put up good TD numbers.

My own take on that is different. I see that kind of inconsistency as a product of being a young qb...and, the situation (as I keep saying) was not Goff alone. There were issues with the OL. And as they kind of confirmed this off-season, they need to tune the offense (and Goff's timing) so that there are more options and quicker processing when they find that the defense post-snap isn't what they expected. Plus of course getting the ball out more quickly helps with the OL too. So all told I just see it as something they will work on and grow out of.

Plus since my thing in the final 8 games is inconsistency, I am cognizant that being inconsistent includes good games. That's different from saying he was flat out bad. I agree with those for example who think he came through in the Saints game in challenging conditions. He was clutch in that game. That game was a beautiful example of why you want your qb to be a clutch performer.

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That game was a beautiful example of why you want your qb to be a clutch performer.

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Exactly.

[moklerman]

I think you are way off in your assessment of his performance in the Saints game. Every football guy on the set in the Superdome, Strahan, Jimmy Johnson, Tony Gonzales, and Bradshaw was raving about Goff after the game. They were unanimous in their praise of how he performed in an extremely difficult environment.

But "after the game" is the key. Under normal circumstances, I don't think he looked as sharp as his old self and under normal circumstances, the Rams would have lost that game.

Which would be unusual for Goff against the Saints. Even in his rookie year when he was generally struggling, he did well against 1 team: the Saints. Goff had played the Saints 3 previous times and had a 100+ career rating against them. That dropped to 83 in the playoff game. Yes, the stakes were different but it was the same team he had faced multiple times and had success each time.

So IMO, he had some good moments and got the win but he wasn't as good statistically as he'd been against them in the past. That doesn't mean he was bad or struggled but the point is that since the bye, he just hasn't been as good as he's shown he's capable of.