[max]

And go back and look at the OL they took in the first round. GRob. Jason Smith. Higher round guarantees nothing.

But we weren't talking about the 5th, 6th and 7th rounds. Or the first round. We were talking about the 3rd round and I see 3rd rounders starting all over the NFL. So they can be had there. Can the Rams do it? Let's see what happens with Bruss next year.

There again, you are only looking at numerators.

Yes, 3rd rounders start all over the NFL. But how many 3rd rounders had to be drafted to get those starters?

That matters.

Going back to initial question, what is hit rate on 3rd rounders. I see no evidence that it’s at least 25%. That doesn’t mean Bruss won’t be a quality starter. But it is not likely.

My view is mcvay is a great HC, but he’s not a great drafter.

[69RamFan]

Ok,

I consider this season a lost with the OL we have,

I don't see us beating any of the top playoff defensive team.

Actually I don't see us making the playoff with this OL.

That being said,

We need a true LT.

Noteboom is not a true top LT, at best he is just a backup swing T.

I say we cut Noteboom after Jun 1st,

he would be 7/mil cap hit, but would be a cap saving of 8.5mil

Evans contract is up, bye bye.

Edwards had two Concussion and they were not far apart,

So I can't count on him either.

Then we have Shelton,

He is only a backup center IMO.

Allen and Shelton playing next to each other is too small for the OL middle IMO.

Now for our LT, I say we go after OBJ 2.0, Orlando Brown Jr.

He will be a FA after this season.

His asking price will be big, but thats up to our FO to handle that.

Our OL would be:

LT/OBJ 2.0, LG/AJax, C/Allen, RG/Bruss, RT/RHav

Our backup: , G/Anchrum, C/Shelton, G/Edwards

We also have T/AJ Acuri in the PS, who we drafted in the 7thrd in 2022.

Plus draft another one or two OLinemen in 2023

The reason why I say draft two, because once again,

I can't trust Edwards with his concussions,

The OL will always be banging heads.

Then draft with 2nd and 3rd rd picks for very good future OLinemen,

in those rounds, we should be able to find plug and play type players.

Our problems was not any of the skill players,

The problem was the OL,

They couldn't open up holes for the run game for the RBs.

The middle of the OL was always getting pushed back behind the LOS.

Then the pass protection gave Staff no time to scan the field,

Could only give time for his first option,

being a quick pass, screen plays, all the short stuff.

Our two fastest WR are VJ and Tutu,

but when our OL can't give Staff time,

Our deep threat is useless,

So the only thing available are short passes,

So for Tutu, that wouldn't be a good fit of a game plan for his size.

We need to build our OL so it can open up holes,

and give Staff protection time,

then we can spray the ball all over the field.

Any opinions from the board?

[PARAM]

There again, you are only looking at numerators.

Yes, 3rd rounders start all over the NFL. But how many 3rd rounders had to be drafted to get those starters?

That matters.

Going back to initial question, what is hit rate on 3rd rounders. I see no evidence that it’s at least 25%. That doesn’t mean Bruss won’t be a quality starter. But it is not likely.

My view is mcvay is a great HC, but he’s not a great drafter.

No, I'm looking at everything. NFL teams seem to believe OL can be found in the 3rd round. Otherwise, there wouldn't be 8 drafted each year. I'm looking at every year until I get bored with this exercise but what I've found so far is,

1. Teams don't hesitate to pick OL in the third round (8 in 2022, 8 in 2021, 8 in 2020, 7 in 2019, 8 in 2018). 28 of the 32 teams have taken at least 1 OL in the third round (2017-2022) with 11 taking more than one (that's a third of the NFL).

2. They find immediate starters (Luke Fortner, 2022 Jax; Nicholas Petit-Frere, 2022 Tenn; Abraham Lucas, 2022 Seattle; Dylan Parham, 2022, LAC; Kendrick Green, 2021 Pitt; Jalen Mayfield, 2021, Atl; Jonah Jackson, 2019 Det; Damien Lewis, 2019, Seattle; Lloyd Cushenberry, 2019 Den; Nate Davis; 2019 Tenn; Orlando Brown; 2018 Balt; Mason Cole; 2018 Pitt; Alex Cappa, 2018 TBay)............that's 13 (numerators) of 39 guys (denominator) 2018-2022, or 33%.

3. There are a lot of guys that end up being starters in year 2 or 3. (Brady Christianson, 2021 Car; Robert Hainsey, 2021, Tampa; Matt Hennessey 2020, Atlanta) etc....and there are more.

So I'd beg to differ with your opinion drafting O lineman in the third round is a 10% chance. And I don't believe the Rams "have ignored" the OL by drafting in the third round. After all, most years the third round is only our 2nd pick, sometimes our first pick.

One question: Your sentence...."that doesn't mean Bruss won't be a quality starter but it is not likely" is based on what? The 2022 preseason? The fact he's a third round pick? The fact the Rams picked him? I'd like to know.

[ramsman34]

Ok,

I consider this season a lost with the OL we have,

I don't see us beating any of the top playoff defensive team.

Actually I don't see us making the playoff with this OL.

That being said,

We need a true LT.

Noteboom is not a true top LT, at best he is just a backup swing T.

I say we cut Noteboom after Jun 1st,

he would be 7/mil cap hit, but would be a cap saving of 8.5mil

Evans contract is up, bye bye.

Edwards had two Concussion and they were not far apart,

So I can't count on him either.

Then we have Shelton,

He is only a backup center IMO.

Allen and Shelton playing next to each other is too small for the OL middle IMO.

Now for our LT, I say we go after OBJ 2.0, Orlando Brown Jr.

He will be a FA after this season.

His asking price will be big, but thats up to our FO to handle that.

Our OL would be:

LT/OBJ 2.0, LG/AJax, C/Allen, RG/Bruss, RT/RHav

Our backup: , G/Anchrum, C/Shelton, G/Edwards

We also have T/AJ Acuri in the PS, who we drafted in the 7thrd in 2022.

Plus draft another one or two OLinemen in 2023

The reason why I say draft two, because once again,

I can't trust Edwards with his concussions,

The OL will always be banging heads.

Then draft with 2nd and 3rd rd picks for very good future OLinemen,

in those rounds, we should be able to find plug and play type players.

Our problems was not any of the skill players,

The problem was the OL,

They couldn't open up holes for the run game for the RBs.

The middle of the OL was always getting pushed back behind the LOS.

Then the pass protection gave Staff no time to scan the field,

Could only give time for his first option,

being a quick pass, screen plays, all the short stuff.

Our two fastest WR are VJ and Tutu,

but when our OL can't give Staff time,

Our deep threat is useless,

So the only thing available are short passes,

So for Tutu, that wouldn't be a good fit of a game plan for his size.

We need to build our OL so it can open up holes,

and give Staff protection time,

then we can spray the ball all over the field.

Any opinions from the board?

While A Jax played RG, I see him as a Tackle. He is auditioning for LT. Watch him closely the rest of the year. I would draft at least 2 OL, jettison Skura, Oday, Evans and Boom unless he’s your swing tackle. Your backups are good to go. Then sign college and pro FAs to fill out the OL Room. Yes, if you can get FA studs at LT and OG, find a way. The knee injury to Allen is going to great shorten his career. I would replace

Jax/Pro FA - draft - pro FA/Trade - Bruss - Hav

[max]

No, I'm looking at everything. NFL teams seem to believe OL can be found in the 3rd round. Otherwise, there wouldn't be 8 drafted each year. I'm looking at every year until I get bored with this exercise but what I've found so far is,

1. Teams don't hesitate to pick OL in the third round (8 in 2022, 8 in 2021, 8 in 2020, 7 in 2019, 8 in 2018). 28 of the 32 teams have taken at least 1 OL in the third round (2017-2022) with 11 taking more than one (that's a third of the NFL).

2. They find immediate starters (Luke Fortner, 2022 Jax; Nicholas Petit-Frere, 2022 Tenn; Abraham Lucas, 2022 Seattle; Dylan Parham, 2022, LAC; Kendrick Green, 2021 Pitt; Jalen Mayfield, 2021, Atl; Jonah Jackson, 2019 Det; Damien Lewis, 2019, Seattle; Lloyd Cushenberry, 2019 Den; Nate Davis; 2019 Tenn; Orlando Brown; 2018 Balt; Mason Cole; 2018 Pitt; Alex Cappa, 2018 TBay)............that's 13 (numerators) of 39 guys (denominator) 2018-2022, or 33%.

3. There are a lot of guys that end up being starters in year 2 or 3. (Brady Christianson, 2021 Car; Robert Hainsey, 2021, Tampa; Matt Hennessey 2020, Atlanta) etc....and there are more.

So I'd beg to differ with your opinion drafting O lineman in the third round is a 10% chance. And I don't believe the Rams "have ignored" the OL by drafting in the third round. After all, most years the third round is only our 2nd pick, sometimes our first pick.

One question: Your sentence...."that doesn't mean Bruss won't be a quality starter but it is not likely" is based on what? The 2022 preseason? The fact he's a third round pick? The fact the Rams picked him? I'd like to know.

This is a good discussion. Thanks.

Question I have is how many of the 13 starters are actually quality starters? I don't know enough about those 13 players. I could look them up on PFF to see if they are decent or not. The idea is that a successful hit is based on more than a guy starting, he's got to be at least a decent starter.

I base my view on Bruss not likely to be a quality starter on 2 things.
The hit rate for a 3rd rounder. Let's say, for the purpose of this exercise that its 33% (best case), or 10% (worst case) thats somewhere between 90% and 67% that he doesn't make it. Then add to that, how bad he looked in TC and PS. That wasn't encouraging at all.

[PARAM]

This is a good discussion. Thanks.

Question I have is how many of the 13 starters are actually quality starters? I don't know enough about those 13 players. I could look them up on PFF to see if they are decent or not. The idea is that a successful hit is based on more than a guy starting, he's got to be at least a decent starter.

I base my view on Bruss not likely to be a quality starter on 2 things.
The hit rate for a 3rd rounder. Let's say, for the purpose of this exercise that its 33% (best case), or 10% (worst case) thats somewhere between 90% and 67% that he doesn't make it. Then add to that, how bad he looked in TC and PS. That wasn't encouraging at all.

There are 5 starting lineman on every team and let's say 4 backups. 9 lineman X 32 teams = 288 lineman, 160 of which are starters. Whether they're "quality starters" or there because nobody on the roster is better is up for discussion. I'm a Rams fan but I recognize names like Jonah Jackson, Lloyd Cushenberry (a guy a lot of Ram fans wanted them to draft), Nate Davis, Orlando Brown, Mason Cole and Alex Cappa. Those names don't ring a bell with you? Perhaps PFF could determine how good those 13 are but we're picking nits IMHO. Take a look at rosters and you'll see more than half of the starting OL were drafted from the 3rd round down, as opposed to 1st and 2nd round picks. The entire NFL can't have it wrong, can they?

BTW, yeah, good discussion.

[actionjack]

I think he has 2 more weeks he’s out on IR. Scheme will be tested this week, yet again.

Well they have matched up well in the past, will see. Tampa has very similar issues.

[Hacksaw]

I don’t see why the crap OL falls on MCV. It falls on Snead more so.

4 starters and the #1 backup injured. Who does that fall on, the football gods?

Sure, some will say, "they should have known Noteboom and Allen would always be injured" but that's fantasy. Guys are injured every year in the NFL. Some recover and go on to reasonably good health...as reasonable as is possible in a violent game. Going forward it might be reality but surely not at the start of 2022. I think Allen and his knee have shown he's going to be a huge problem. Swelling. Fluid. It sounds to me like we may want to replace him. Noteboom, I'm not so sure.

Unload Evans, maybe Edwards, Allen then draft another OL next year, sign a free agent and see what shakes out. Continuity is huge and we had absolutely zero this year because of injuries.

OL with promise? AJ Jackson, Anchrum, Arcuri?, Bruss? Havenstein is proven and Noteboom if he can stay healthy. Is Shelton going to be back? Certainly if Allen is gone. Or maybe they draft a C in the third round

EDIT: This post was originated by @PARAM

[actionjack]

Ok,

I consider this season a lost with the OL we have,

I don't see us beating any of the top playoff defensive team.

Actually I don't see us making the playoff with this OL.

That being said,

We need a true LT.

Noteboom is not a true top LT, at best he is just a backup swing T.

I say we cut Noteboom after Jun 1st,

he would be 7/mil cap hit, but would be a cap saving of 8.5mil

Evans contract is up, bye bye.

Edwards had two Concussion and they were not far apart,

So I can't count on him either.

Then we have Shelton,

He is only a backup center IMO.

Allen and Shelton playing next to each other is too small for the OL middle IMO.

Now for our LT, I say we go after OBJ 2.0, Orlando Brown Jr.

He will be a FA after this season.

His asking price will be big, but thats up to our FO to handle that.

Our OL would be:

LT/OBJ 2.0, LG/AJax, C/Allen, RG/Bruss, RT/RHav

Our backup: , G/Anchrum, C/Shelton, G/Edwards

We also have T/AJ Acuri in the PS, who we drafted in the 7thrd in 2022.

Plus draft another one or two OLinemen in 2023

The reason why I say draft two, because once again,

I can't trust Edwards with his concussions,

The OL will always be banging heads.

Then draft with 2nd and 3rd rd picks for very good future OLinemen,

in those rounds, we should be able to find plug and play type players.

Our problems was not any of the skill players,

The problem was the OL,

They couldn't open up holes for the run game for the RBs.

The middle of the OL was always getting pushed back behind the LOS.

Then the pass protection gave Staff no time to scan the field,

Could only give time for his first option,

being a quick pass, screen plays, all the short stuff.

Our two fastest WR are VJ and Tutu,

but when our OL can't give Staff time,

Our deep threat is useless,

So the only thing available are short passes,

So for Tutu, that wouldn't be a good fit of a game plan for his size.

We need to build our OL so it can open up holes,

and give Staff protection time,

then we can spray the ball all over the field.

Any opinions from the board?

I think Alaric fits the bill of a LT. I see it this way next year...

AJ LT , Noteboom LG, Allen C, Bruss/Anchrum RG, Haves RT
Sheldon as a backup

[PARAM]

I think Alaric fits the bill of a LT. I see it this way next year...

AJ LT , Noteboom LG, Allen C, Bruss/Anchrum RG, Haves RT
Sheldon as a backup

It's gonna be interesting.

OL under contract for 2023:
Noteboom
Allen
Shelton
Havenstein
Anchrum
AJ Jackson
Bruss

If Arcuri showed them anything they should be able to sign him. Surely they'll draft another OL and perhaps sign a free agent. The questions would be, how high a draft pick and what tier UFA?

Like I said, gonna be interesting. Maybe they'll feel 2022 and the injury big was an aberration. Or maybe they won't. Either way there's no way to be 9-10 deep with quality offensive line starters.