[TSFH Fan]

Sorry, sorry, sorry, I fail at multi-tasking.
Yeah, if they get top 3 they keep it. Otherwise they lose it.

Once again, my apologies.

Damn, I wasn't even drinking. Maybe I should do more drunk posting. I'd probably make more sense.

[Edit: Dammit, drinking while posting is multi-tasking. It could get real, real dangerous for me.]

[snackdaddy]

they have to win one of the top three picks in the lottery

Yes, winning one of the top three means they lose it -- the pick determines, not the actual W-L record.

LOL now I'm really confused... So you are saying if they actually get one of the top 3 picks in the lottery then they lose the pick? Otherwise they keep it? I thought the protection was the reverse.

I think he means the Lakers don't lose it in the next draft if their pick is top 3. At first I thought they would lose it next draft. But the way they look now, top 3 is possible. So far the youngsters are looking like the inexperienced players they are. Will it get better? I don't know. Its possible, but if the vets they have aren't able to carry the team while the rooks go through their learning curve, they may struggle for 25 wins. If they're sitting at less than 15 wins by the all star break, its possible they can keep that pick one more year.

[kayfabe]

The NBA lottery actually makes it more complicated; in fact if the Lakers finish with the 3rd worst record they'd surprisingly
be favored to relinquish their pick (see below; I just wrote a bit of code and simulated 10000 lottery outcomes; 3rd worst record
means they're only 46.9% to keep the pick, 53.1% to relinquish). And even if they finish with something like the 5th worst
record they'll still be about a 30% favorite to hold onto their draft pick...

Which makes Friday's next game vs. The Nets absolutely fascinating, since the Nets are in a worse boat than the Lakers: an early
battle of 0-4 teams, but the Nets have to give up their first round pick next year to the Celtics no matter what!

And BTW to keep up on the latest tanking odds in the NBA I've found the site http://www.tankathon.com to be quite a valuable resource.
http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds gives you the latest lottery chances (note: I have no financial or other interest in that site). So the
odds below are just what the end of season will look like, once all the pre-lottery draft slots are set --

WHAT TOP THREE PROTECTED REALLY MEANS ==
If Lakers finish with worst record --
25.0% chance of picking 1st, 21.5% chance of picking 2nd, 17.8% chance of picking third, 35.8% chance of picking fourth (i.e., so 64.2% to keep pick, 35.8% to relinquish)

If Lakers finish with second worst record --
19.9% chance of picking 1st, 18.8% chance of picking 2nd, 17.1% chance of picking third, 44.2% chance of picking fourth or fifth (i.e., so 55.8% to keep pick, 44.2% to relinquish)

If Lakers finish with third worst record --
15.6% chance of picking 1st, 15.8% chance of picking 2nd, 15.6% chance of picking third, 53.1% chance of picking fourth or fifth or sixth (i.e., so 46.9% to keep pick, 53.1% to relinquish)

If Lakers finish with fourth worst record --
11.9% chance of picking 1st, 12.6% chance of picking 2nd, 13.3% chance of picking third, 62.2% chance of picking fourth or later (i.e., so 37.8% to keep pick, 62.2% to relinquish)

If Lakers finish with fifth worst record --
8.8% chance of picking 1st, 9.7% chance of picking 2nd, 10.7% chance of picking third, 70.8% chance of picking fourth or later (i.e., so 29.2% to keep pick, 70.8% to relinquish)

If Lakers finish with sixth worst record --
6.3% chance of picking 1st, 7.1% chance of picking 2nd, 8.1% chance of picking third, 78.5% chance of picking fourth or later (i.e., so 21.5% to keep pick, 78.5% to relinquish)

If Lakers finish with seventh worst record --
4.3% chance of picking 1st, 4.9% chance of picking 2nd, 5.8% chance of picking third, 85.0% chance of picking fourth or later (i.e., so 15.0% to keep pick, 85.0% to relinquish)

If Lakers finish with eighth worst record --
2.8% chance of picking 1st, 3.3% chance of picking 2nd, 3.9% chance of picking third, 89.0% chance of picking fourth or later (i.e., so 11.0% to keep pick, 89.0% to relinquish)

If Lakers finish with ninth worst record --
1.7% chance of picking 1st, 2.0% chance of picking 2nd, 2.4% chance of picking third, 93.9% chance of picking fourth or later (i.e., so 6.1% to keep pick, 93.9% to relinquish)

If Lakers finish with tenth worst record --
1.1% chance of picking 1st, 1.3% chance of picking 2nd, 1.6% chance of picking third, 96.0% chance of picking fourth or later (i.e., so 4.0% to keep pick, 96.0% to relinquish)

[Rams Dominate]

Lakers @ 4:30 vs the Heat, I can see progress with this team but 1-5 is 1-5, & the way they lose is hard to watch, led the Knicks virtually the whole game only to watch the Knicks go on a 16-4 run in closing minutes of the 4th qtr. for the victory, 99-95 Knicks...Kobe inexplicably in crunch time lately couldn't hit the broadside of a barn standing inside it, this is a back to back game tonite so maybe he sits this one out... Quiet as its kept World Peace is playing pretty well & still plays pretty good defense & for most of the game against the Knicks the Lakers team defense was much better but this Knicks team isn't going to the playoffs anytime soon either, so is the defense improved, really?

[Rams Dominate]

Lakers 88 Heat 101, Lakers had a good 1st half, Heat 50 Lakers 49 at halftime, unfortunately they have to play 4 qtrs. & the Lakers 17 point effort in the 3rd qtr won't win many games...This Lakers team isn't very aggressive, 7 trips to the free throw line won't do it, nor do they rebound very well, I believe they've been out rebounded in every game so far in this young season & they are 1-6...

[Rams Dominate]

Lakers 88 Heat 101, Lakers had a good 1st half, Heat 50 Lakers 49 at halftime, unfortunately they have to play 4 qtrs. & the Lakers 17 point effort in the 3rd qtr won't win many games...This Lakers team isn't very aggressive, 7 trips to the free throw line all nite won't do it, nor do they rebound very well, I believe they've been out rebounded in every game so far in this young season & they are 1-6...

[snackdaddy]

Well, we just might get to keep that pick after all. Tied with a few teams for worst record in the league so far. Watching this team so far it looks like a disorganized pickup game. I thought Scott was a better coach than that. And defense is an afterthought. Surprised Kobe doesn't get on them more for that.

[Rams Dominate]

Totally agree with your take sd, my wife was flabbergasted that I wouldn't even watch the Lakers/Magic game (Magic 101 Lakers 99) 1-7 is a record I never thought I'd see for the purple & gold...I'm not a frontrunner fan but bad basketball, whoever the team is, isn't my cup of tea...Also agree about Kobe not taking these guys to task for their lackadaisical play, I'm used to Magic Johnson, Worthy , Cooper, Rambis etc. getting in guys faces, I don't even see the coach doing it & Scott was on those great teams...Maybe they just need time...

[SoCalRam78]

Tanking for a top 3 pick is pointless because unless you finish dead last, the chances of losing the pick are greater than 50%. Having said that, only Brooklyn and Philadelphia are teams that can out crap the Lakers this year. This season should be about developing Russell, Clarkson and Randle so that when free agency rolls around, a young nucleus is envisioned by prospective free agents.

The Lakers can then attempt to sign two max FAs and have them pick their coach as BS needs to go after this year.

[Rams Dominate]

This post directed at me SCR78 ? No ones talking about tanking if it was, matter of fact I agree with your post...The last 2 games these young Lakers are even playing some defense & lets not leave Nance Jr. out of the conversation, do you agree, he has size & plays hard... I like the guy & he's getting more playing time lately...
I'm a SoCal guy (San Pedro),where in SoCal are you from?