[max]

I'm having difficulty understanding your point.

On the one hand, you've stated a couple of times that you have an issue with the Rams going another year without a first round pick, then you criticize a recent second round pick by comparing him to a guy who was drafted in the 5th round.

2 different issues.

1st issue is that I don't like going year after year without a first round pick. That has nothing to do with how they handle their 2nd round pick. I just want first round picks to increase my chances of hitting on impact players. Our best players were all first round picks. Gurley, Donald, Goff.

My point with the 2nd round picks is that its easier to make mistakes with them as they did with Everett. So they can say they get more shots at the basket, but the shots from the first round are a lot close to the basket than the later rounds.

I think there is some math here that is pertinent (yes, there's some math in this thread!):

Let's say, for the sake of argument, that the odds of getting a Pro Bowl player with the 31st in Round 1 is 50%.

Now let's assume the overall odds of getting a Pro Bowl player on Day 2 of the draft is 33%.

If the goal is to obtain AT LEAST ONE Pro Bowl Player, the odds would actually be better if you trade the single #31 pick into two Day 2 picks (55.6%). Plus, you have the added benefit of an 11.1% chance that BOTH Day 2 picks will be Pro Bowl Players.

Of course, that's just a hypothetical, and I haven't run Pro Bowl %s by pick. Nonetheless, there are scenarios in which a trade down INCREASES the odds of obtaining elite players.

If trading down truly increased the odds of obtaining elite players EVERYBODY would be trading down. And that's not happening because its just not true.

[AvengerRam]

1st issue is that I don't like going year after year without a first round pick. That has nothing to do with how they handle their 2nd round pick. I just want first round picks to increase my chances of hitting on impact players. Our best players were all first round picks. Gurley, Donald, Goff.

Yes, but if you look at the NFL.com Top 100 from last year, 50% were NOT first round picks..

My point with the 2nd round picks is that its easier to make mistakes with them as they did with Everett. So they can say they get more shots at the basket, but the shots from the first round are a lot close to the basket than the later rounds.

Obviously the odds are better with a single first round pick vs. a single later round pick.
Multiple later round picks, however, may be better than a single first round pick in terms of odds of hitting at least once.

If trading down truly increased the odds of obtaining elite players EVERYBODY would be trading down. And that's not happening because its just not true.

Yes, if trading down ALWAYS increased the odds, then everyone would be doing it (assuming rational behavior). Again, that's not the argument. The argument is that trading down for extra picks SOMETIMES increases the odds of obtaining at least one elite player. Given the amount of elite players drafted in Round 2 and beyond, its beyond question that some trade down moves do increase those odds.

So the operative question here is... was a trade of the #31 pick and the #203 pick for the #45 and #79 pick a move that increased the odds of obtaining at least one elite player? (we can ask the same type of question for the other trade down moves)

Your anecdotal observation that the Rams have obtained some elite players in Round 1 in the past certainly does not disprove the assertion that the trades made last week increased the Rams' odds of success.

[AvengerRam]

Here's an interesting chart:


It shows the distribution of 2017 Pro Bowl players based upon draft position.

Looking at this data, one can easily see why picks #s 45 and 79 would be deemed a good return on a trade from pick #31 (along with the subsequent trades that lead to the Rams holding the #61 and #70 picks).

[PARAM]

I never said it was unreasonable. It’s reasonable, yet I don’t believe they can make a habit out of this approach, specifically not drafting in the first round, and maintain a championship level team.

A big reason why the Rams are NFC Champions is because of the guys who were drafted in the first round. I’m saying it’s not sustainable to continue to draft without picking in the first round.

It’s simply a warning, my hope is that they are well aware of that.

I wasn't putting words in your mouth Max. I was simply converting your concern. Yes a big reason they are NFC Champions are Goff, Gurley, Donald, Brockers (all first rounders), Whitworth, Saffold (both 2nd round picks), Talib, Peters, Cooks (all first round picks; acquired via trade) and Woods (2nd rounder). Plus let's not forget, picking 31st is 2 picks away from Round 2.

I think they're aware of that but I also think they believe they can harvest really good players out of the 2nd and 3rd round. They've acquired a lot of first rounders via trade so the draft picks used have to count for those. A first for Cooks, a 2nd for Peters and a 5th for Talib. Where are you going to find a Talib in the fifth round? What did they give up for Fowler? And now they've resigned him.

They've figured out something and as long as they keep playing well, they will be picking 29th - 32. Which again, is more near the second round than the 3/4's of the first round. So if they have to give up a first to get another pro bowl player, it's a very low first and not a top 10.

[max]

Let's not forget they used their 2018 1st round pick to get Brandin Cooks and their 2017 1st round pick as part of the deal to get Goff.

We've got a ridiculous amount of first round talent on this team, really doubt that's gonna be an issue...

Valid point.

I’m reacting to the perception that we had a great draft. We may have gotten the players we targeted but that’s only part of the equation.

[Elvis]

https://www.therams.com/news/inside-the ... reg-gaines

Inside the draft room: One last trade to pick up Greg Gaines

Myles Simmons
RAMS INSIDER

This is the final installment of our Inside the Draft Room series. If you missed them, catch up with Part I here and Part II here.

After a flurry of trades to pick four players on Friday night, there’s not much time before the Rams get back at it in the draft room on Saturday morning.

There are positives to living in pacific time during the draft. The first two nights start at 5 p.m. and 4 p.m., respectively — so you’re not picking players late into the night. But the drawback is that Saturday’s fourth-round proceedings begin at 9 a.m. It’s an early morning.

As the day begins, Los Angeles has four picks — No. 162, No. 167, No. 169, and No. 251. The first three are in the fifth round, and the final in the seventh.

Rams assistant director of college scouting Ted Monago enters the draft room at about 8:58, saying that this is the day where it’s time to find gold.

“You can always find gold,” he says.

In this case, that starts with the Rams finding a way to move up for defensive tackle Greg Gaines. General manager Les Snead would say later that afternoon at the post-draft press conference that acquiring Gaines was the team’s “first priority” for Saturday. According to Snead, he and McVay had met that morning, and came to the conclusion that Gaines would be the right fit to compete for the nose tackle spot vacated by the departed Ndamukong Suh in Los Angeles’ base 3-4 defense.

But because the Rams opened the day with selections toward the end of the fifth round, there was work to be done in order to make the priority reality.

Knowing this was the plan in retrospect fills in a few blanks as the fourth round plays out. Snead and McVay enter the draft room after ostensibly meeting about Gaines and stand in front of the defensive draft-board screen at the front of the room. After a while, it becomes clear that McVay has a player in mind who he believes can fill a specific role to help complete the makeup of Los Angeles’ defense. It also becomes clear that McVay feels like L.A. will have to trade up in order to get him.

Executive vice president of football operations Kevin Demoff and vice president of football and business administration Tony Pastoors are working the phones, and they discuss with Snead and McVay the potential trade options. Much like it happened on Friday night, some teams are willing to deal if a player they want to select comes off the board. But for a while, none of those deals come to fruition. Those in the room also discuss which teams they know Gaines has met with, just to make sure they’re ahead of any other club that might want him.

At one point, a team Snead had called about a potential swap calls the Rams’ GM back when that team is on the clock. But it’s a courtesy call, as that club’s time to make a selection is winding down — not a call to trade.

“I appreciate the call. I was just expecting you to pick and not call us,” Snead says — since that’s the way most of these non-trades have gone. “I’ll remember that.”

With the group of Snead, McVay, Demoff, and Pastoors in and out of the room, all working together to find a suitable partner, one proposal emerges that will clearly work around pick No. 132. As it turns out, it’s with the Patriots, who have back-to-back picks at No. 133 and 134. After both sides confirmed that New England didn’t plan on picking the player Los Angeles wanted at No. 134, McVay, who’s on the phone with the Pats, spells out the terms of the deal: L.A. gets No. 134 and No. 243 in exchange for No. 162 and No. 167.

Pastoors phones the league to officially execute the trade, and Los Angeles selects Gaines at No. 134.

The Rams have their nose tackle.

Following Snead, McVay, and defensive line coach Eric Henderson, defensive coordinator Wade Phillips gets on the phone with Gaines to welcome him to the team and says it outright — the Washington product has a chance to make an impact right away.

“It’s going great now, we’ve got you on our team!” Phillips says. “We’ve got a place for you — you konw, Ndamukong Suh left, so you’ve got a spot. We’re looking for you to get after it, OK?”

“Big shoes to fill — I’m up for it,” Gaines replies.

“Hey, you can do it,” Phillips says. “That’s why we got you now.”

As the pick is announced on NFL Network, the room applauds. Then there are a few hoots and hollers when a graphic displays the Rams’ defensive front: Clay Matthews, Michael Brockers, Greg Gaines, Aaron Donald, and Dante Fowler.

After selecting Gaines, the Rams now have a long time to wait for their next pick at No. 169. And, finally, it appears Los Angeles isn’t going to make a trade.

As the selections turn to the 160s, the discussion on who the Rams should pick centers around building depth at certain spots versus picking players who can definitely make the gameday roster. Both are important, and the Rams come up with a plan to select players who can, hopefully, check off both boxes.

In addition to the usual personnel staff, there are a few coaches in the room as the Rams come on the clock at No. 169.

“Anybody feel different than that?” McVay asks, as the group comes to a consensus on who to pick. No one does, and L.A. turns in the card for Wisconsin offensive tackle David Edwards.

When the sixth round becomes the seventh, scouts and assistant coaches essentially have to become recruiters. At one point, assistant head coach/linebackers coach Joe Barry jokes that it’s taking him back to his days as a coach for USC.

Coaches and the personnel staff go back and forth, in and out of the draft room throughout the final round of the draft. But in the lead up to No. 243, the Rams discuss a player special teams coordinator John “Bones” Fassel is particularly fond of. Penn State safety Nick Scott was apparently Fassel’s favorite special teams player in this draft, so he’s understandably quite happy when L.A. turns in the card for Scott at No. 243.

And to close out the Rams’ selections, Barry advocates for taking Texas Tech linebacker at No. 251, touting his quick-twitch movement and football instincts. And yes, he’s most known to the public as one of the stars of the Netflix show Last Chance U. But inside the draft room, the talk is more about his ability as a player and what he’s overcome to put himself in position to play in the NFL.

“Love the way you handled adversity,” McVay tells Allen when the Rams call him to tell him the good news.

That completes the Rams 2019 draft — six trades to net eight players. And while the selection process is done, each player’s NFL story is only beginning.

This is the final installment of our Inside the Draft Room series. If you missed them, catch up with Part I here and Part II here.

[ramsman34]

I never said it was unreasonable. It’s reasonable, yet I don’t believe they can make a habit out of this approach, specifically not drafting in the first round, and maintain a championship level team.

A big reason why the Rams are NFC Champions is because of the guys who were drafted in the first round. I’m saying it’s not sustainable to continue to draft without picking in the first round.

It’s simply a warning, my hope is that they are well aware of that.

I don't agree with this at all. First, the first round is not a top to bottom, who's who of Pro Bowlers. In fact, there are usually only 12-20 true blue chip players in EVERY draft. And then there are guys drafted long after the first round who are Hall of Fame players. So, since McVay arrived, we've had no first round picks: based on the Goff trade ('17), then traded a first for a "first round" WR (Cooks, '18), and had the 31st pick in the first round ('19) which was not a "blue chip" gathering slot. So, in this draft, we could have either traded up for one of those 3 mystical players, or trade down and get really good players - you know, the kind you need to fill the roster around the 3-6 Pro Bowl players you hopefully have. So trade down is what we did. SMART MOVE. QBs are the exception - we traded up to get one. We got Donald at 14, right on the fringe or the drop off - Gurley at 10. ALL of them were massive needs. Now, we have a very well built roster with reloads who are being developed, and Cooks, 1st round, traded for him. That is our first round offense. On D: Brockers, Donald - drafted high by us, because we SUCKED. Talib, Peters, Mathews, Fowler - all first rounders that we traded for/signed as F/As. The rest? second round all the way to UDFA. And we were in the Super Bowl that we could've, should've won. Many, many ways to skin the proverbial cat.

Bottom line is, if we are really good, we will be picking at the bottom of the first for a long time. In general, you either trade up or trade down after about pick 16-18. That is statistically/historically the way it is.

I think your concern is unwarranted.

[max]

This is the very obvious point that Max is missing. I get what he's saying... it's easier to find true difference makers in the first round... but winning teams are build in the mid-rounds, imo.
Also.. as Elvis said.. they used a first for cooks.
Also.. they used a 3rd for Fowler and a second for Peters. As bad as Peters was during parts of the season... he was ABSOLUTELY a difference maker in the playoffs.

If you're worried about the Rams lack of a first rounder this year and last... I think you're worrying needlessly.
Also.. for what it's worth... numerous mocks.. player ratings, etc.. had Rapp as a first rounder.

I'm well aware of where the Rams high picks went. They also went with a bunch of money attached. And that causes cap issues. You can't keep doing that either.

Lets keep an unbiased view on this. When you are not drafting close to the highest rated prospect at his position you are severely hindering your odds of hitting on a player.

For example, maybe David Long turns out to be a good player, he is getting all kinds of rave reviews, but he was the 9th CB taken.

Go back and look at past drafts and see how many times the 9th player taken at his position was a good player. Sure you can find some, but its a very low percentage.

The way I see this draft is pure depth, with an outside shot of any of them being a starter this year. Maybe Gaines starts, but that will be more out of necessity. He's not a special talent who gets plugged in from week one. He's not Haloti Ngata. Heck, Donald didn't even start the season his rookie year, and he's an all time great. Gaines may start but he will get a rude awakening against the big boys.

The biggest impact may come from Henderson. The expectation is that McVay will cut Gurley's workload and hopefully Henderson actually provides more juice to the offense. I'm optimistic, but still Henderson needs to show he is better than an undersized Dalvin Cook.

What I think we did was bolster our secondary with Rapp and Long, so thats good, but they aren't difference makers, hopefully they are nice players who will support a good secondary.

And as high as my expectations are for Kroemer to spin gold out of straw, the interior of our OL has not been reinforced with high quality talent. We have 3 spots that are big question marks in my mind. Evans and Edwards are not ready to be anything more than backups. There were 17 OL taken before Evans and 26 taken before Edwards. Good luck fellas.

[PARAM]

I'm well aware of where the Rams high picks went. They also went with a bunch of money attached. And that causes cap issues. You can't keep doing that either.

Lets keep an unbiased view on this. When you are not drafting close to the highest rated prospect at his position you are severely hindering your odds of hitting on a player.

For example, maybe David Long turns out to be a good player, he is getting all kinds of rave reviews, but he was the 9th CB taken.

Go back and look at past drafts and see how many times the 9th player taken at his position was a good player. Sure you can find some, but its a very low percentage.

The way I see this draft is pure depth, with an outside shot of any of them being a starter this year. Maybe Gaines starts, but that will be more out of necessity. He's not a special talent who gets plugged in from week one. He's not Haloti Ngata. Heck, Donald didn't even start the season his rookie year, and he's an all time great. Gaines may start but he will get a rude awakening against the big boys.

The biggest impact may come from Henderson. The expectation is that McVay will cut Gurley's workload and hopefully Henderson actually provides more juice to the offense. I'm optimistic, but still Henderson needs to show he is better than an undersized Dalvin Cook.

What I think we did was bolster our secondary with Rapp and Long, so thats good, but they aren't difference makers, hopefully they are nice players who will support a good secondary.

And as high as my expectations are for Kroemer to spin gold out of straw, the interior of our OL has not been reinforced with high quality talent. We have 3 spots that are big question marks in my mind. Evans and Edwards are not ready to be anything more than backups. There were 17 OL taken before Evans and 26 taken before Edwards. Good luck fellas.

As long as we're taking an unbiased view here, we have to remember it's not all about the talent of the player drafted. It's also about the developmental skills of the coaching staff as well as the system into which the player is inserted.

All the rookies need to prove themselves before they are of value to the Rams. Many of the veterans too, as it should be. I have no doubt, with his scheming and innovation, McVay will use his new toy early and often. The kid has receiving skills as well as being a breakaway runner.

On Kromer he had John Miller, 81st pick in the draft, starting in Buffalo his rookie year (12 G). In Chicago he had Kyle Long (20th pick; 16 GS) and Jordan Mills (163rd pick; 16 GS) starting on the right side in 2013. And in 2011 he had Brian De La Puente (UDFA; 12 GS) at center in New Orleans in 2011. So he's got a history of getting rookies up to speed and starting early. There's no reason to believe he's lost that ability.

Our two OL draft picks were taken #97 and #169. There are some experts who believe Evans could start inside, as well as McVay even saying Kromer will be cross training him for T/G. I wouldn't put anything out of reach when it comes to this staff identifying and then drafting talented players as well as developing those guys ahead of schedule.

And yes, we have question marks on the interior of our O line. Will Noteboom be a good LG? After watching him at LT last year, I'm not too worried. Will Allen be able to perform the duties of an NFL center? I trust Kromer (okay so allow me just a bit of biased reasoning. It's well founded when it comes to Kromer). Will one of the two rookies displace Blythe? Even if they don't we could do a lot worse than AB at RG.

[Elvis]

I'm well aware of where the Rams high picks went. They also went with a bunch of money attached. And that causes cap issues. You can't keep doing that either.

The Rams have certainly been unconventional. They gave up a 2 for Watkins, a 2 for Peters, a 1 for Cooks, a 3 for Fowler. But like i said earlier, we have a ton of first round talent on our team.

You see trouble ahead? Maybe, we're in kind of uncharted waters but the results have been excellent so far. Conventional wisdom is wrong a lot.

Lets keep an unbiased view on this. When you are not drafting close to the highest rated prospect at his position you are severely hindering your odds of hitting on a player.

For example, maybe David Long turns out to be a good player, he is getting all kinds of rave reviews, but he was the 9th CB taken.

Again, you're missing the point. The Rams traded a 2nd round pick for Peters, a probowler taken with the 18th pick in the draft. We're not lacking in first round talent on this team.

And as high as my expectations are for Kroemer to spin gold out of straw, the interior of our OL has not been reinforced with high quality talent. We have 3 spots that are big question marks in my mind. Evans and Edwards are not ready to be anything more than backups. There were 17 OL taken before Evans and 26 taken before Edwards. Good luck fellas.

You basically wanted Snead fired for not taking Forrest Lamp 2 years ago and yet our Oline play has been very high.

Maybe they know what they're doing? The results certainly say they do...