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Aaron Judge. But let me explain.

I know Altuve is the running favorite. I know he's a huge part of the Astros team.
I know Trout is a phenominal player. I know he's a huge part of the Angels team.

I've always been of the belief, unless a guy has unbelievable numbers, he needs to play on a playoff team to win it. There are certainly arguments to the contrary and I expect to read a couple. But without Trout, are the Angels still under .500 and out of the playoffs? Sure Trout has missed 50 games and had he not, the Angels might be in the postseason. Maybe.

With Altuve he's a spark plug. He's a terrific player. He 's the AL leader in WAR with a 8.2. That seems to be the measuring stick for media folks and sabermetric fans. He's the batting champion going away. But I had a hitting coach many years ago who had a very good rule for hitters. "Hits don't win ballgames. Runs win ballgames." Altuve had 196 hits, including 38 doubles, 4 triples and he's stolen 32 bases. Although he's the #3 hitter in a lineup loaded with guys having very good years....Reddick, Springer, Gurriel, Gonzalez and Bregman, not to mention Beltran and Correa.....he's scored 105 runs and driven in just 80. I'm not saying he doesn't deserve to be considered for the MVP, I'm just saying he's had ALOT more help than Judge.

The two best Yankee players after Judge are Sanchez and Gregorius and they both missed a month of the season. Judge had a great first half.....30 homers, 66 rbi, .329 average.....and many predicted he'd fall off a cliff because they would find his weakness and exploit it. He did in the second half of July and all of August. Collectively, he hit .185 with 7 homers, 16 rbi, and a .788 OPS. Ironically, he still got his share of walks (38) and runs scored (24). His OB% was .437.

But in September, the most important month of a stretch run when valuable guys have to be the most valuable, he's hitting .296, with 11 homers, 23 rbi, 23 runs scored, 20 walks, a .414 OB% and a .831 slug% for an OPS of 1.245. With all due respect to Jose Altuve, he can't touch that. And it's not like Altuve didn't have a drop off the second half of the season. After hitting .485 in July, which is phenominal, he hit .304 in August and is currently hitting .274 in September. Of course the Astros clinched the West over a week ago. But still, .274? He's dropped 22 points in batting average over the last 2 months of the season and that's a lot of drop after 400 at bats already in the book.

My vote is Judge. Sure I'm a Yankee fan. I don't believe the Yanks make the posteseason without him and they surely won't win much if he has another drop off. Jose Altuve is great. But I think the Astros still win with Correa, Springer, Beltran and Co. even if Altuve has a less productive year. They're 15-6 in September with Altuves slashing .274/.375/.468/.843 OPS.

The numbers for both:

Altuve 566 AB; 105 R; 196 H; 38 2B; 4 3B; 24 HR; 80 RBI; .346; 56 BB; .409 OB%; .555 Slg%; .964 OPS; 32 SB

Judge 523 AB; 122 R; 147 H; 22 2B; 3 3B; 48 HR; 105 RBI; .281; 119 BB; .416 OB%; .610 Slg%; 1.026 OPS; 8 SB

Runs win ballgames, not hits.

NL Rookie of the Year: Cody Bellinger
NL MVP: Cody Bellinger
NL CY Young: Clayton Kershaw

Good thing I'm not biased.

Last 21 games (down the stretch):

Altuve / 16 for 61 (.262), 14 RS, 9 RBI, 2 doubles, 3 homers, 10 walks, 11 K's, .366 OB%, .492 Slg%, .858 OPS

Judge / 22 for 65 (.338), 25 RS, 24 RBI, 5 doubles, 12 homers, 23 walks, 23 K's, .511 OB%, .969 Slg%, 1.480 OPS

Trout / 15 for 71 (.211), 14 RS, 9 RBI, 5 doubles, 4 homers, 16 walks, 10 K's, .356 OB%, .450 Slg%, .806 OPS

His final numbers for September:

28 for 90 (.311)
29 runs scored 32 rbi
15 HR, 28 BB
.475 OB%
.888 Slug%
1.363 OPS

The Yankees went 20-8

Fact: Only 2 rookies have scored 100+ runs, driven in 100+ runs and walked 100+ times. Ted Williams and Aaron Judge.

The most important consideration for MVP is, if the MVP weren't on the team would they have done as well? Would they have a winning record? Would they make the postseason? With Altuve my belief is no, Houston wouldn't have done as well. Yes they'd have a winning record. Yes they'd still make the postseason. With Judge my belief is, the Yankees wouldn't have done as well. They might have a winning record. And no, they don't make the postseason without Judge's 52 homers, 114 rbi, 128 runs scored, 127 walks and .422 OB%. Not to mention his baserunning and defensive play. JMHO, albeit biased opinion.

Wait a second, I said Aaron Judge should be MVP in a different thread and you argued with me....

Alltuve is a batting champ, nothing else

His job is to get on base and score runs. And he does a good job of it.
Judge's job is to drive in runs. Except not only does he do that, he gets on base more and scores more than Alltuve as well

dieterbrock wrote:Wait a second, I said Aaron Judge should be MVP in a different thread and you argued with me....

Alltuve is a batting champ, nothing else

His job is to get on base and score runs. And he does a good job of it.
Judge's job is to drive in runs. Except not only does he do that, he gets on base more and scores more than Alltuve as well

I don't remember arguing against Judge deserving MVP (or is that a dig at one of our fellow posters? agree in one thread, argue in another). Like I said in another post (referring to Altuve's great average and lesser run production vs. Judge's home runs and run production), I had a hitting coach many years ago who told me "hits don't win ballgames, runs win ball games". And if you look at the numbers, Judge is responsible for many more runs than Altuve. Not just the runs scored (128 to 112) and driven in (114 to 81) but in that sabermetric category, 'runs created' he's ahead of Altuve (137.9 to 127.0; a bigger difference between them than between Altuve and #3, Ramierez). What I did say is I worry voters will take into account his previous seasons and give it to Altuve. You know, the guys who will say 'he's had 200 hits four straight years' or 'he got beat out by Trout twice and Donaldson once, so with them having off years, it's his turn'. Judge is more valuable to the Yankees than Altuve is to the Astros and if it wasn't any clearer than Tuesday night, take a look at the records.

April 15-8 (Judge .303, 23 RS, 10 HR, 20 rbi)
May 15-12 (Judge .314, 17-7-17)
June 13-15 (Judge .324, 30-10-25) * 6/13 to 6/30 Judge was 15 for 60 with 7 HR/13 rbi and the Yankees were 5-11
July 14-12 (.230, 13-7-13)
August 14-15 (.185, 16-3-7)
September 20-8 (.311, 29-15-32)

As Tom Jackson used to say on ESPN, "come on man!!!" There's a direct correlation to Judge's performance and Yankee record, more than any other player on the team, by far.

PARAM wrote:I don't remember arguing against Judge deserving MVP (or is that a dig at one of our fellow posters? agree in one thread, argue in another). Like I said in another post (referring to Altuve's great average and lesser run production vs. Judge's home runs and run production), I had a hitting coach many years ago who told me "hits don't win ballgames, runs win ball games". And if you look at the numbers, Judge is responsible for many more runs than Altuve. Not just the runs scored (128 to 112) and driven in (114 to 81) but in that sabermetric category, 'runs created' he's ahead of Altuve (137.9 to 127.0; a bigger difference between them than between Altuve and #3, Ramierez). What I did say is I worry voters will take into account his previous seasons and give it to Altuve. You know, the guys who will say 'he's had 200 hits four straight years' or 'he got beat out by Trout twice and Donaldson once, so with them having off years, it's his turn'. Judge is more valuable to the Yankees than Altuve is to the Astros and if it wasn't any clearer than Tuesday night, take a look at the records.

April 15-8 (Judge .303, 23 RS, 10 HR, 20 rbi)
May 15-12 (Judge .314, 17-7-17)
June 13-15 (Judge .324, 30-10-25) * 6/13 to 6/30 Judge was 15 for 60 with 7 HR/13 rbi and the Yankees were 5-11
July 14-12 (.230, 13-7-13)
August 14-15 (.185, 16-3-7)
September 20-8 (.311, 29-15-32)

As Tom Jackson used to say on ESPN, "come on man!!!" There's a direct correlation to Judge's performance and Yankee record, more than any other player on the team, by far.

Same page entirely.
As I said elsewhere, Judge’s slump actually strengthens his case as mvp as it showed what happened to the team when he was in the tank. They lost like 21 out of 31 at one point.
Alas, it is ultimately a popularity contest, anti Yankee bias kicks in and the ludicrous “he should have won it already, let’s give it to him now” rears it’s ugly head.
Houston won their division by 21 games, wild card by 26.
Can’t convince me that they aren’t a playoff team without altuve, but unquestionably, the Yankees are without Judge

delete

dieterbrock wrote:Judge's job is to drive in runs. Except not only does he do that, he gets on base more and scores

A lot has been made of his strike outs and rightfully so. But take a look at his numbers in "crucial games" this postseason. In the postseason they're all "big games" but there are "crucial games" like when you're facing elimination or facing going down 3-0 or 3-1. In the 6 "crucial games" this postseason (vs Minnesota, Gms 3-5 vs Cleveland, and games 3 and 4 vs Houston) , he's 6 for 23 (.261) but he's scored 6 runs and driven in 9. He's got 2 doubles, 3 homers, 3 walks and yes, 14 strikeouts. His OB% is .346, his slugging is .739 and his OPS is 1.085.

Of course game 5 wasn't "crucial" but it was very important and he went 1 for 3, with a double, a run scored and a big rbi. He also walked once and K'd twice. Now I'd like him to play as well or better than that in game 6, a very big game, not an elimination game but a potential series clinching game. In other words, a clinching game while not facing elimination might not be crucial but it's pretty important. I want to see a couple of hits, an XB hit, a couple of rbi and a run scored or two. He can K the other two times, I don't care. I want to see him light up Verlander in his first at bat.