by moklerman 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 7680 Joined: Apr 17 2015 Bakersfield, CA Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #451 10 games in a row! Love seeing that 10-0 in the L10 column of the box score. Bellinger another multi-homer game<yawn>. by Hacksaw_64 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 2686 Joined: Sep 08 2015 Inglewood, CA Moderator The Dodgers POST #452 69superbowl liked this post 2017 Dodgers Prospects: Best ToolsDustin Nosler 04/12/2017To be eligible, the player must be prospect-eligible for 2017. This includes Andrew Toles, who I didn’t have in my Top 100 because there was confusion about his service time. He appears multiple times here.Best Hitter for AverageThis is not only the best bat-to-ball hitter, but it also factors in on-base and ability to take a walk.CandidatesWillie Calhoun (.254 AVG/.318 OBP)Yusniel Diaz (.267 AVG/.326 OBP)Omar Estevez (.255 AVG/.298 OBP)Keibert Ruiz (.374 AVG/.412 OBP)Andrew Toles (.331 AVG/.374 OBP)Alex Verdugo (.311 AVG/.340 OBP)Calhoun’s numbers don’t look overly impressive, but he has some of the best contact ability in the system. Diaz projects to be a good contact hitter, but it hasn’t all come together just yet. Estevez might ultimately be the best bat-to-ball guy in the system. Ruiz is a sleeper for this title. But this really comes down to Toles and Verdugo. While Toles showed well in his short MLB debut, Verdugo’s ability to make consistent contact and limit strikeouts gives him the edge.Best Hitter: VerdugoBest Hitter for PowerDingers! Dongers! Ding Dongers! This factors in-game and raw power.CandidatesCody Bellinger (26 HR/.236 ISO)Willie Calhoun (27 HR/.215 ISO)Ibandel Isabel (12 HR/.262 ISO)Johan Mieses (28 HR/.263 ISO)DJ Peters (13 HR/.264 ISO)Carlos Rincon (13 HR/.333 ISO)Edwin Rios (27 HR/.266 ISO)Calhoun, despite being 4 1/2 feet tall, has immense power. He didn’t get the moniker “Laser Show” for nothing. Isabel has a ton of raw power (perhaps the most in the system), but it hasn’t fully translated to game action just yet. Mieses led the org in homers last season. Peters burst onto the scene after being a 4th-round draft pick, but he did his damage in Ogden. Rincon has already shown his power this season and is a sleeper to top this list at some point. But this comes down to two powerful lefties in Bellinger and Rios. While Rios has some of the best raw power in the system, he did a lot of his damage last season outside of Double-A. Bellinger lit up the Texas League and even popped three home runs in six Pacific Coast League games.Best Hitter for Power: BellingerBest Strike Zone DisciplineThis isn’t just about walks but the ability to recognize pitches and work counts.CandidatesMike Ahmed (55/110 BB/K, .376 OBP)Matt Beaty (40/74 BB/K, .352 OBP)Willie Calhoun (45/65 BB/K, .318 OBP)Saige Jenco (29/41 BB/K, .395 OBP)Will Smith (29/50 BB/K, .355 OBP)Brandon Trinkwon (46/58 BB/K, .326 OBP)Alex Verdugo (44/67 BB/K, .336 OBP)Ahmed has a bit too much swing-and-miss, but he can walk. Beaty is a more polished hitter without a ton of upside. Calhoun is here because he limits his strikeouts. Jenco had a solid debut and can work the count. Smith’s advanced discipline and pitch recognition make him one of the best here. Trinkwon fell back a bit overall in 2016, but still showed good ability to work the count. Verdugo might control the zone better than any other prospect in the org. Smith’s advanced approach just edges Verdugo’s zone control.Best Strike Zone Discipline: SmithBest SpeedPretty self-explainatory.CandidatesDrew Jackson (16 SB/8 CS)Saige Jenco (22 SB/1 CS)Erick Mejia (24 SB/15 CS)Daniel Padilla (21 SB/8 CS)Andrew Toles (24 SB/12 CS)Jenco has sneaky good speed, as does Mejia. Both are better underway rather than being pure base stealers. Padilla is athletic, raw and fast. Toles has almost double-plus speed but hasn’t figured out how to use it on the base paths. Newcomer Jackson (who would have ranked in the mid-teens in my Top 100) has legitimate 70-grade speed that, like many others, hasn’t translated to stolen bases.Best Speed: JacksonBest AthleteSome solid candidates, but no Trayce Thompsons this season.CandidatesCody BellingerDrew JacksonGavin LuxDaniel PadillaDJ PetersAndrew TolesAlex VerdugoBellinger is one of the most athletic first basemen in the game, evidenced by the fact he can probably play a fringe-average-to-average center field at the big league level. Lux isn’t the most athletic shortstop, but he’s not a statue, either. Padilla is a guy not a lot know about, but it’s fun to dream on the athleticism. Peters is the biggest guy on this list (6’6, 225 pounds) who is incredibly athletic. Toles and Verdugo can both play center field, with Toles being the more athletic of the two. But Jackson’s pure athleticism wins out. He has the ability to play all three up-the-middle positions and should be a super utility guy in the majors.Best Athlete: JacksonBest Fastball“Forget about the curveball. Give ’em the heater, Ricky.” – Lou BrownCandidates (sitting velo; top velo)Yadier Alvarez (92-97 MPH; 101 MPH)Francis Cespedes (93-95 MPH; 98 MPH)Walker Buehler (94-96 MPH; 99 MPH)Jordan Sheffield (93-96 MPH; 98 MPH)Mitchell White (93-96 MPH; 97 MPH)Aneurys Zabala (94-97 MPH; 100 MPH)Cespedes has a ton of arm talent and velo from the left side, but he has a hard time controlling/commanding it. Buehler recently touched 99 MPH in a minor-league game. Sheffield, despite his size, can run it up there in the mid-90s. White might have the best chance of sustaining this velocity. Zabala (who would have been in the 31-40 range in my Top 100) can hit triple digits out of the bullpen. But Alvarez’s ability to produce velocity so effortlessly and the fact he topped 100 MPH last year gives him the edge.Best Fastball: AlvarezBest CurveballNo lefties, no Clayton Kershaw, but still some good candidates.CandidatesYadier Alvarez (76-80 MPH, 11-5 break)Walker Buehler (77-79 MPH, 11-5 break)Jordan Sheffield (77-80, 11-5 break)Mitchell White (77-81 MPH, 12-6 break)Buehler’s curve is strong and the most slider-like of the three. Sheffield’s curve is developing but still behind the other two. White’s curveball is a true swing-and-miss pitch and should serve him well going forward.Best Curveball: WhiteBest SliderOne starter and three relievers.CandidatesYadier Alvarez (84-86 MPH, 11-5 break)Grant Dayton (81-84 MPH; 2-8 break)Josh Sborz (82-85 MPH, 11-5 break)Yaisel Sierra (83-86 MPH, 11-5 break)Dayton’s best offspeed pitch is his slider that induces some swinging strikes. Sborz’s best non-fastball is his low-80s slider that should get some whiffs. Sierra’s slider has a chance to be the best in the system, but he needs to improve the command on it. Alvarez has a wipeout slider to go along with his near-elite fastball and strong curveball.Best Slider: AlvarezBest ChangeupLove the changeup and would like to see more same-handed changeup usage.CandidatesLeonardo Crawford (80-82 MPH)Brock Stewart (79-82 MPH)Jordan Sheffield (80-83 MPH)Crawford’s changeup helps keep hitters off his average fastball and slurvy breaking pitch. Stewart’s changeup has already performed at the MLB level, but its ceiling is a bit limited. Sheffield’s changeup is his bread and butter and should end up being devastating against lefties.Best Changeup: SheffieldBest SinkerA pitch that seems to be making a comeback in the system.CandidatesCaleb Ferguson (90-93 MPH, 1.64 GO/AO)Dennis Santana (91-94 MPH, 1.51 GO/AO)Trevor Oaks (90-93 MPH, 2.44 GO/AO)Ferguson’s sinker gets good run away from righties, but he leaves it up in the zone too much. Santana’s sinker has good potential but is still a little rough around the edges. Oaks’ sinker is what’s going to get him to the majors — and keep him there.Best Sinker: OaksBest Command/ControlAll guys without premium stuff — not surprising.CandidatesIsaac Anderson (5.0 BB%)Caleb Ferguson (1.9 BB%)Trevor Oaks (3.5 BB%)Andrew Sopko (6.2 BB%)Brock Stewart (4.1 BB%)Anderson is a pitchability guy who lives on the corners. Ferguson’s command, on paper, looks better than it is (and it’s still pretty good). Oaks commands his sinker as well as any pitcher commands any pitch in the system. Sopko is like Anderson, but has a little more “stuff” than Ike. Stewart showed amazing command/control of three pitches last season, so he gets the nod.Best Command/Control: StewartBest Defensive CatcherWho’s the next Russell Martin?CandidatesKyle FarmerKeibert RuizWill SmithFarmer’s transition to catcher has gone relatively well, but he’s been playing a lot more third base of late. Ruiz, for being 18, is pretty advanced and athletic behind the plate. Smith is athletic, advanced at handling pitching staffs and is a good framer. He’s the best here.Best Defensive Catcher: SmithBest Defensive InfielderAll shortstops … except for one.CandidatesErisbel ArruebarrenaCody BellingerRonny BritoGavin LuxErrol RobinsonArruebarrena should get this honor, but who knows what his baseball future even holds. He’s mentioned for no other reason than he’s still, technically, in the system. Brito could be a plus-defender at shortstop, and that could play up if he has to move to second base. Lux projects to be a plus-defender at shortstop, while Robinson (2016 6th-rounder) could also be a strong shortstop. But Bellinger’s 70-grade defense at first base wins out here.Best Defensive Infielder: BellingerBest Infield ArmWho has the best infield hose?CandidatesErisbel ArruebarrenaRonny BritoMoises PerezEdwin RiosEA is good at throwing the ball hard and accurately, but he isn’t good at actually, you know, staying on the field. Brito’s arm is sneaky strong and could get better as he matures. Perez has a solid arm that probably plays better at second base. But despite being a big and generally unathletic guy, Rios’ arm strength is second to none in the system.Best Infield Arm: RiosBest Defensive OutfielderThe options here were, surprisingly, lacking.CandidatesYusniel DiazJohan MiesesAriel SandovalAlex VerdugoDiaz could play center field, but I still think left field is more likely for him. Mieses and Sandoval can play all three spots, with each fitting better in a corner than the other. Verdugo is probably average in center field who could be plus to plus-plus in right field.Best Defensive Outfielder: VerdugoBest Outfield ArmWho has the best outfield hose?CandidatesJohan MiesesDJ PetersAndrew TolesAlex VerdugoMieses’ arm is plenty strong for right field. Peters’ arm projects to be above-average in center field. Toles showed off his arm last season in the majors, but Verdugo’s arm is tops here. He was looked at by most as a pitcher before the Dodgers drafted him as an outfielder.Best Outfield Arm: VerdugoBest 5-Tool ProspectNo Joc Pederson or Yasiel Puig‘s here.CandidatesJohan MiesesAlex VerdugoThe shortest competition, with Mieses having the edge on power over Verdugo. But his inability to make consistent contact, coupled with his poor approach make it likely that he never hits for a high enough average to claim this. Verdugo might not ever hit 20 home runs in a Major League season, but he’ll do everything else well enough.Best 5-Tool Prospect: VerdugoTools PlayerBest Hitter for Average Alex VerdugoBest Power Hitter Cody BellingerBest Strike Zone Discipline Will SmithFastest Baserunner Drew JacksonBest Athlete Drew JacksonBest Fastball Yadier AlvarezBest Curveball Mitchell WhiteBest Slider Yadier AlvarezBest Changeup Jordan SheffieldBest Sinker Trevor OaksBest Command/Control Brock StewartBest Defensive Catcher Will SmithBest Defensive Infielder Cody BellingerBest Infield Arm Edwin RiosBest Defensive Outfielder Alex VerdugoBest Outfield Arm Alex VerdugoBest 5-Tool Prospect Alex Verdugohttp://dodgersdigest.com/2017/04/12/201 ... est-tools/ 1 by Hacksaw_64 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 2686 Joined: Sep 08 2015 Inglewood, CA Moderator The Dodgers POST #453 by snackdaddy 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #454 TOPIC AUTHOR Kershaw being Kershaw. Most dominant pitcher in the league. If the Dodgers are sitting with a nice division lead in September I'd consider limiting his pitch count. Maybe even skip a start to keep him fresher for the post season. He's so good you know he'll go 7 innings plus most games. I'd worry about a tired arm in October. by snackdaddy 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #455 TOPIC AUTHOR 69superbowl liked this post Dodgers still trucking along. Another win streak at 4. I believe they're something like 37-11 since they were sitting at 22-18. Last year the Cubs looked like the stacked team with their combination of hitting and pitching. This year the Dodgers are a top 5 scoring team. Best in the league in team ERA. They appear to be the stacked team. Best record in NL by 5.5 games. Swept both teams that are challenging them for the division and best record. They seem to have what a good team needs. Elite starting pitcher. Elite closer. High scoring offense with power. Solid bullpen. The only thing that concerns me is the starting pitching after Kershaw. When you get in the playoffs runs are harder to come by because pitching is always tougher. You have to have the pitching to match theirs. Wood is having a Kershaw type season. His numbers are actually better than Kershaw's. But he's stepping into new territory for him. He's had his moments before this season but can he sustain it into October? If he can I gotta think the Dodgers will be in the best position they've been in to get to the World Series. So the question remains, what do they do before the trade deadline? I can't see them making any changes by giving up a position player and breaking up a good team chemistry. So their outfield/infield should remain intact. Do they trade prospects for another top end starting pitcher? Or is what they have good enough? I'm of the belief that you can't have enough starters. I wouldn't mind another starter to bolster the depth. Maeda and Hill pitched well the past times they were out there. But they're also capable of putting up some stinkers too. To go with them in the post season as the 3rd and 4th starters is iffy. I would mind another starter and moving Maeda to long relief. All in all I like the Dodgers chances this year. Kershaw is starting to pitch the post season like the regular season. I think he learned some things about the post season over the years. He could easily do what Bumgarner did for SF. All they need is someone else to step up. The Dodgers have been knocking on the door for several years. Its time the knock the damn thing down. 1 by Hacksaw 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 24523 Joined: Apr 15 2015 AT THE BEACH Moderator The Dodgers POST #456 snackdaddy wrote:Kershaw being Kershaw. Most dominant pitcher in the league. If the Dodgers are sitting with a nice division lead in September I'd consider limiting his pitch count. Maybe even skip a start to keep him fresher for the post season. He's so good you know he'll go 7 innings plus most games. I'd worry about a tired arm in October.Good call as long as #2 & #3 can keep up the mo.@snackdaddy, this team has the mojo. I could see us easily advancing in the playoffs after taking the NLW enant GO RAMS !!! GO DODGERS !!! GO LAKERS !!!THE GREATEST SHOW ON TURF,, WAS by snackdaddy 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #457 TOPIC AUTHOR Hacksaw wrote:Good call as long as #2 & #3 can keep up the mo.@snackdaddy, this team has the mojo. I could see us easily advancing in the playoffs after taking the NLW enantDodgers haven been a regular playoff contestant for several years now. They've been knocking on the door. Could this be the year they kick it down? Last year it was clear the Cubs were better. This year the Dodgers are looking like that team. I'd still feel better about their chances if they acquired one more high end starter for the rotation. Dodgers have a good offense but the playoffs are about pitching. Good pitching stops good hitting most the time. by snackdaddy 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #458 TOPIC AUTHOR 69superbowl liked this post This guy says the Dodgers and Astros are in the best position to take home the title. At the end he seems to think the Dodgers are the favorites:http://m.mlb.com/news/article/241739968 ... s-of-2017/By Mike Petriello / MLB.com | @mike_petriello | 12:44 AM ET + 53 COMMENTSIf we can take just a moment to look past Aaron Judge's ongoing home run heroics, there's another potentially historic story brewing in Major League Baseball. The Dodgers (61-29) and the Astros (60-29) are each on pace to win 109 games. This year marks the first time since 1969 that two teams have hit 60 wins by the break.None of this is to say both the Astros and Dodgers will reach 109 wins, of course. As we've noted previously, if you could simply double first-half stats, Alex Wood would go 20-0. (He won't.) But even if both clubs slow down and reach "only" 105 wins, well, only 24 teams have done even that in baseball history. Only once have we ever had two teams do it in the same season, and as noted, the 1998 Yankees and Braves had newly minted expansion teams to feast on. So regardless of whether they end up with 101 or 107 or 109 wins (or more), these are two teams that are not only all but guaranteed to be playing October baseball, but are likely to add even more talent before the July 31 non-waiver Trade Deadline. They're the class of baseball in 2017, led by analytically minded front offices and young, respected managers. But which one is better?Astros' midseason momentsAstros' midseason momentsCarlos Correa and George Springer are key contributors for the Astros in the first half of the 2017 seasonIt's the kind of question many of us would like to see answered on the field in late October. For now, the best we can do is to compare each roster and make some judgment calls. Spoiler: They're both really, really good.(For ease of comparison, we'll use Weighted Runs Created Plus, or wRC+, a park-adjusted hitting stat that sets "100" as league-average. A 120 wRC+, for example, can be read as "20 points above league average.")CatcherDodger catchers Yasmani Grandal and Austin Barnes have combined to hit .272/.343/.489 (121 wRC+). Astros catchers Brian McCann and Evan Gattis have combined to hit .271/.340/.475 (117 wRC+), and that's about as close to being even as you can get. Grandal and Barnes each rate more highly at pitch framing than McCann and Gattis do, but even so, these are two similarly talented backstop duos. We'll call this one a draw. First baseStatcast: Bellinger's two homersStatcast: Bellinger's two homersStatcast measures the exit velocity, launch angle and projected distance of Cody Bellinger's two early homers against Zack WheelerAlthough Cody Bellinger (.261/.342/.619, 145 wRC+) has started more games in the outfield, we'll count him at first, because he's been almost exclusively starting there since Adrian Gonzalez hurt his back, and he'll probably stay there for the foreseeable future since Gonzalez may not return until September, and even then perhaps only as a pinch-hitter. Even if Bellinger doesn't quite maintain this pace, he's got a sizable edge on both sides of the ball over Yuli Gurriel (.297/.321/.491, 115 wRC+). Second baseSome of these are going to be extremely close, and some -- all due respect to Logan Forsythe, who is better than he's shown -- are not. After a poor start to the year, Forsythe (.249/.369/.345, 101 wRC+) has clawed back to league average, and that's something. Of course, Houston doesn't just have baseball's best all-around second baseman in Jose Altuve (.347/.417/.551, 161 wRC+), it also has a superstar who may be one of the game's five best players. It's an easy call here.ShortstopIn the world of extremely talented young shortstops, Carlos Correa (23 in September) and Corey Seager (who turned 23 in April) shine the brightest. Correa (.325/.402/.577, 161 wRC+) is outslugging Seager (.298/.395/.502, 139 wRC+) this year, but Seager was on top last year, and advanced metrics prefer him on defense. Pick either one you like; there's no wrong answer here. Third baseTurner on chances to hit .400Turner on chances to hit .400First-time All-Star Justin Turner talks about the company on the NL team as well as the chances to hit .400 this seasonIf he weren't just a handful of at-bats short of qualifying, Justin Turner (.377/.473/.583, 183 wRC+) would have the second-best line in baseball behind only Judge, and he adds value with the glove as well. Meanwhile, the future remains bright for young Alex Bregman (.256/.338/.419, 104 wRC+) but he hasn't quite put it all together just yet. Left fieldIf we're considering Bellinger a first baseman, we're left with a position that seems very likely to be upgraded by the Deadline for the Dodgers, given that both Andrew Toles and Andre Ethier have had their seasons destroyed by injury. Chris Taylor (.285/.365/.480, 127 wRC+) has been one of baseball's best out-of-nowhere stories, but he has little track record and may function best off the bench (he's started at second, third, short, left and center). That said, Houston's primary left fielder has been Norichika Aoki (.264/.316/.331, 75 wRC+), in the midst of his worst season. Both teams could make moves here.Center fieldStatcast: Springer's 456-ft. HRStatcast: Springer's 456-ft. HRStatcast measures George Springer's 456-ft. home run that left the bat at 107.9 mph and with a launch angle of 25 degreesGeorge Springer (.310/.380/.613, 164 wRC+) complicates this a bit by splitting his time between center and right, but since he's made 52 starts in center as opposed to only 29 in right, we'll keep him here. And like Altuve, he's become one of the game's best players. Joc Pederson (.241/.361/.466, 122 wRC+, with some questionable defensive metrics) has been more "good" than "great," and while he's not the only face you'll see out here, we'll get back to that in the "Bench" section. Right fieldWith Springer in center, former Dodger Josh Reddick is in right, and his first half (.313/.365/.515, 134 wRC+) puts him on track for the best season of his career. (He's hit like Anthony Rizzo and Miguel Sano so far this year.) Yasiel Puig (.251/.324/.453, 104 wRC+), who was briefly demoted to the Minors last year when Reddick arrived in Los Angeles, remains a valuable defender, but as a league-average hitter, his overall value is limited.BenchGonzalez's two-run homerGonzalez's two-run homerMarwin Gonzalez hammers a two-run home run to right field to give the Astros a 4-3 lead in the bottom of the 4th inningPerhaps more than any other teams in the game, these rosters are built around depth. While both have stars, both clubs could survive without them, because there's just so much talent here. For example, we've talked about Barnes, Gattis, and Taylor, but haven't yet mentioned Marwin Gonzalez, having an out-of-nowhere great season (.308/.391/.576, 158 wRC+) while starting at five spots. Or Jake Marisnick, having a similarly impressive year (.248/.320/.504, 119 wRC+) while adding defensive value in the outfield. Or Enrique Hernandez, who exists to crush lefties (.250/.344/.607, 144 wRC+, against southpaws) while starting at seven spots.Need "veteran presence?" Neither 38-year-old Chase Utley (.226/.326/.390, 95 wRC+) nor 40-year-old Carlos Beltran (.227/.284/.406, 82 wRC+, mostly as Houston's DH) hit anymore like they did in their youth, but both teams swear by them in the clubhouse. Any changes here would be on the fringes; both clubs are so deep. This one is a push. Starting pitchingSo far, none of these calls is all that controversial. Let's go ahead and change that right now, by giving the edge to the Dodgers, despite how talented the Astros' rotation is. That's in large part due to Clayton Kershaw, who remains baseball's best pitcher despite the attempts of others to take the throne. While Dallas Keuchel is a stud and was off to a great start, he's also coming off a poor 2016 and has been out of action with a neck issue for more than a month, so it's hard to argue he's quite there with Kershaw.Beyond their aces, the Dodgers' rotation has a better ERA (3.24 to 3.82), has baseball's second-highest whiff rate (25.4 percent), and has induced the weakest quality contact of anyone. But for both of these teams, it comes down to health. Can you really rely on Wood, Rich Hill and Brandon McCarthy being there in three months? Or Keuchel, Lance McCullers Jr. or Charlie Morton? Or Brad Peacock (who's been great) to last all year in the rotation? One of these teams is going to get a Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray or Marco Estrada -- perhaps both.BullpenDodgers' bullpen dominatesDodgers' bullpen dominatesThe Dodgers' bullpen proves to be clutch, with Kenley Jansen leading the wayAt first glance, this might not seem so close, given that Houston's bullpen has a 4.09 ERA and Los Angeles has a 2.99 mark, the second best in baseball, but we know that ERA is a very imperfect way to measure relievers. Beyond that, we know that the depth relievers you need to get through a season aren't likely to impact the club so much in October, so it may not matter that someone like Sergio Romo has a 6.12 ERA right now. As we've noted before, the Astros' 'pen can be great.Knowing that additions are likely to come, let's take six top Dodgers relievers (Kenley Jansen, Pedro Baez, Brandon Morrow, Luis Avilan, Ross Stripling and Josh Fields) and six top Astros relievers (Ken Giles, Chris Devenski, Peacock, Will Harris, Luke Gregerson and Michael Feliz) and compare what they've done. The six Dodgers have a 2.82 FIP; the six Astros have a 2.90 FIP. The six Dodgers have a .261 xwOBA, which measures quality of contact (exit velocity plus launch angle), along with strikeouts; the six Astros have a .262 xwOBA. Close enough for you?Los Angeles doesn't have a multi-inning weapon like Devenski, but Houston doesn't have a shutdown closer like Jansen. These are both strong units, and neither has a clear edge.So, overall, which team is the best? They're both great, of course, and this could potentially be one of the most interesting World Series matchups in years if we get that far, though you'll note that the 2001 Mariners and the 1969 Cubs did not reach the Fall Classic. But as things stand today, no team is in better position than the Dodgers, who have to be considered the favorites to end what's nearly a three-decade title drought.Mike Petriello is an analyst for MLB.com and the host of the Statcast podcast. He has previously written for ESPN Insider and FanGraphs. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs. 1 by snackdaddy 7 years 3 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #459 TOPIC AUTHOR Well, the injury bug had to happen. Kershaw out 4 to 6 weeks. Fortunately they have a big lead and they're still talented enough to win regular season games without him. But they're not talented enough to get through the post season without him. Maybe this is a blessing in disguise. If he returns in time to pitch a few games in September he should be well rested for October. The only concern would be if his back is worse than originally thought. I don't think he's seen a back specialist yet. You never know with a back injury. by PARAM 7 years 3 months ago Total posts: 12560 Joined: Jul 15 2015 Just far enough North of Philadelphia Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #460 The Dodgers are en fuego!! 42 games over .500 is unreal!! Winning 70% of your games will get you a long way. A 5 game series; 3.5 wins. A 7 game series 4.9 wins. So going into the postseason, they have to be favored no worse than winning the first round in 4 games and the NLCS in 6. The Series? They'll be favored in that too. Obviously, it's a good time to be a Dodger fan. Been following the horns since the Coliseum had a Roman playing there. McVay: 77-49, 2 Superbowls, 1 Lombardi............Doubt at your own peril Reply 46 / 82 1 46 82 Display: All posts1 day7 days2 weeks1 month3 months6 months1 year Sort by: AuthorPost timeSubject Sort by: AscendingDescending Jump to: Forum Rams/NFL Other Sports Rams Fans United Q&A's Board Business 819 posts Nov 21 2024 FOLLOW US @RAMSFANSUNITED Who liked this post
by Hacksaw_64 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 2686 Joined: Sep 08 2015 Inglewood, CA Moderator The Dodgers POST #452 69superbowl liked this post 2017 Dodgers Prospects: Best ToolsDustin Nosler 04/12/2017To be eligible, the player must be prospect-eligible for 2017. This includes Andrew Toles, who I didn’t have in my Top 100 because there was confusion about his service time. He appears multiple times here.Best Hitter for AverageThis is not only the best bat-to-ball hitter, but it also factors in on-base and ability to take a walk.CandidatesWillie Calhoun (.254 AVG/.318 OBP)Yusniel Diaz (.267 AVG/.326 OBP)Omar Estevez (.255 AVG/.298 OBP)Keibert Ruiz (.374 AVG/.412 OBP)Andrew Toles (.331 AVG/.374 OBP)Alex Verdugo (.311 AVG/.340 OBP)Calhoun’s numbers don’t look overly impressive, but he has some of the best contact ability in the system. Diaz projects to be a good contact hitter, but it hasn’t all come together just yet. Estevez might ultimately be the best bat-to-ball guy in the system. Ruiz is a sleeper for this title. But this really comes down to Toles and Verdugo. While Toles showed well in his short MLB debut, Verdugo’s ability to make consistent contact and limit strikeouts gives him the edge.Best Hitter: VerdugoBest Hitter for PowerDingers! Dongers! Ding Dongers! This factors in-game and raw power.CandidatesCody Bellinger (26 HR/.236 ISO)Willie Calhoun (27 HR/.215 ISO)Ibandel Isabel (12 HR/.262 ISO)Johan Mieses (28 HR/.263 ISO)DJ Peters (13 HR/.264 ISO)Carlos Rincon (13 HR/.333 ISO)Edwin Rios (27 HR/.266 ISO)Calhoun, despite being 4 1/2 feet tall, has immense power. He didn’t get the moniker “Laser Show” for nothing. Isabel has a ton of raw power (perhaps the most in the system), but it hasn’t fully translated to game action just yet. Mieses led the org in homers last season. Peters burst onto the scene after being a 4th-round draft pick, but he did his damage in Ogden. Rincon has already shown his power this season and is a sleeper to top this list at some point. But this comes down to two powerful lefties in Bellinger and Rios. While Rios has some of the best raw power in the system, he did a lot of his damage last season outside of Double-A. Bellinger lit up the Texas League and even popped three home runs in six Pacific Coast League games.Best Hitter for Power: BellingerBest Strike Zone DisciplineThis isn’t just about walks but the ability to recognize pitches and work counts.CandidatesMike Ahmed (55/110 BB/K, .376 OBP)Matt Beaty (40/74 BB/K, .352 OBP)Willie Calhoun (45/65 BB/K, .318 OBP)Saige Jenco (29/41 BB/K, .395 OBP)Will Smith (29/50 BB/K, .355 OBP)Brandon Trinkwon (46/58 BB/K, .326 OBP)Alex Verdugo (44/67 BB/K, .336 OBP)Ahmed has a bit too much swing-and-miss, but he can walk. Beaty is a more polished hitter without a ton of upside. Calhoun is here because he limits his strikeouts. Jenco had a solid debut and can work the count. Smith’s advanced discipline and pitch recognition make him one of the best here. Trinkwon fell back a bit overall in 2016, but still showed good ability to work the count. Verdugo might control the zone better than any other prospect in the org. Smith’s advanced approach just edges Verdugo’s zone control.Best Strike Zone Discipline: SmithBest SpeedPretty self-explainatory.CandidatesDrew Jackson (16 SB/8 CS)Saige Jenco (22 SB/1 CS)Erick Mejia (24 SB/15 CS)Daniel Padilla (21 SB/8 CS)Andrew Toles (24 SB/12 CS)Jenco has sneaky good speed, as does Mejia. Both are better underway rather than being pure base stealers. Padilla is athletic, raw and fast. Toles has almost double-plus speed but hasn’t figured out how to use it on the base paths. Newcomer Jackson (who would have ranked in the mid-teens in my Top 100) has legitimate 70-grade speed that, like many others, hasn’t translated to stolen bases.Best Speed: JacksonBest AthleteSome solid candidates, but no Trayce Thompsons this season.CandidatesCody BellingerDrew JacksonGavin LuxDaniel PadillaDJ PetersAndrew TolesAlex VerdugoBellinger is one of the most athletic first basemen in the game, evidenced by the fact he can probably play a fringe-average-to-average center field at the big league level. Lux isn’t the most athletic shortstop, but he’s not a statue, either. Padilla is a guy not a lot know about, but it’s fun to dream on the athleticism. Peters is the biggest guy on this list (6’6, 225 pounds) who is incredibly athletic. Toles and Verdugo can both play center field, with Toles being the more athletic of the two. But Jackson’s pure athleticism wins out. He has the ability to play all three up-the-middle positions and should be a super utility guy in the majors.Best Athlete: JacksonBest Fastball“Forget about the curveball. Give ’em the heater, Ricky.” – Lou BrownCandidates (sitting velo; top velo)Yadier Alvarez (92-97 MPH; 101 MPH)Francis Cespedes (93-95 MPH; 98 MPH)Walker Buehler (94-96 MPH; 99 MPH)Jordan Sheffield (93-96 MPH; 98 MPH)Mitchell White (93-96 MPH; 97 MPH)Aneurys Zabala (94-97 MPH; 100 MPH)Cespedes has a ton of arm talent and velo from the left side, but he has a hard time controlling/commanding it. Buehler recently touched 99 MPH in a minor-league game. Sheffield, despite his size, can run it up there in the mid-90s. White might have the best chance of sustaining this velocity. Zabala (who would have been in the 31-40 range in my Top 100) can hit triple digits out of the bullpen. But Alvarez’s ability to produce velocity so effortlessly and the fact he topped 100 MPH last year gives him the edge.Best Fastball: AlvarezBest CurveballNo lefties, no Clayton Kershaw, but still some good candidates.CandidatesYadier Alvarez (76-80 MPH, 11-5 break)Walker Buehler (77-79 MPH, 11-5 break)Jordan Sheffield (77-80, 11-5 break)Mitchell White (77-81 MPH, 12-6 break)Buehler’s curve is strong and the most slider-like of the three. Sheffield’s curve is developing but still behind the other two. White’s curveball is a true swing-and-miss pitch and should serve him well going forward.Best Curveball: WhiteBest SliderOne starter and three relievers.CandidatesYadier Alvarez (84-86 MPH, 11-5 break)Grant Dayton (81-84 MPH; 2-8 break)Josh Sborz (82-85 MPH, 11-5 break)Yaisel Sierra (83-86 MPH, 11-5 break)Dayton’s best offspeed pitch is his slider that induces some swinging strikes. Sborz’s best non-fastball is his low-80s slider that should get some whiffs. Sierra’s slider has a chance to be the best in the system, but he needs to improve the command on it. Alvarez has a wipeout slider to go along with his near-elite fastball and strong curveball.Best Slider: AlvarezBest ChangeupLove the changeup and would like to see more same-handed changeup usage.CandidatesLeonardo Crawford (80-82 MPH)Brock Stewart (79-82 MPH)Jordan Sheffield (80-83 MPH)Crawford’s changeup helps keep hitters off his average fastball and slurvy breaking pitch. Stewart’s changeup has already performed at the MLB level, but its ceiling is a bit limited. Sheffield’s changeup is his bread and butter and should end up being devastating against lefties.Best Changeup: SheffieldBest SinkerA pitch that seems to be making a comeback in the system.CandidatesCaleb Ferguson (90-93 MPH, 1.64 GO/AO)Dennis Santana (91-94 MPH, 1.51 GO/AO)Trevor Oaks (90-93 MPH, 2.44 GO/AO)Ferguson’s sinker gets good run away from righties, but he leaves it up in the zone too much. Santana’s sinker has good potential but is still a little rough around the edges. Oaks’ sinker is what’s going to get him to the majors — and keep him there.Best Sinker: OaksBest Command/ControlAll guys without premium stuff — not surprising.CandidatesIsaac Anderson (5.0 BB%)Caleb Ferguson (1.9 BB%)Trevor Oaks (3.5 BB%)Andrew Sopko (6.2 BB%)Brock Stewart (4.1 BB%)Anderson is a pitchability guy who lives on the corners. Ferguson’s command, on paper, looks better than it is (and it’s still pretty good). Oaks commands his sinker as well as any pitcher commands any pitch in the system. Sopko is like Anderson, but has a little more “stuff” than Ike. Stewart showed amazing command/control of three pitches last season, so he gets the nod.Best Command/Control: StewartBest Defensive CatcherWho’s the next Russell Martin?CandidatesKyle FarmerKeibert RuizWill SmithFarmer’s transition to catcher has gone relatively well, but he’s been playing a lot more third base of late. Ruiz, for being 18, is pretty advanced and athletic behind the plate. Smith is athletic, advanced at handling pitching staffs and is a good framer. He’s the best here.Best Defensive Catcher: SmithBest Defensive InfielderAll shortstops … except for one.CandidatesErisbel ArruebarrenaCody BellingerRonny BritoGavin LuxErrol RobinsonArruebarrena should get this honor, but who knows what his baseball future even holds. He’s mentioned for no other reason than he’s still, technically, in the system. Brito could be a plus-defender at shortstop, and that could play up if he has to move to second base. Lux projects to be a plus-defender at shortstop, while Robinson (2016 6th-rounder) could also be a strong shortstop. But Bellinger’s 70-grade defense at first base wins out here.Best Defensive Infielder: BellingerBest Infield ArmWho has the best infield hose?CandidatesErisbel ArruebarrenaRonny BritoMoises PerezEdwin RiosEA is good at throwing the ball hard and accurately, but he isn’t good at actually, you know, staying on the field. Brito’s arm is sneaky strong and could get better as he matures. Perez has a solid arm that probably plays better at second base. But despite being a big and generally unathletic guy, Rios’ arm strength is second to none in the system.Best Infield Arm: RiosBest Defensive OutfielderThe options here were, surprisingly, lacking.CandidatesYusniel DiazJohan MiesesAriel SandovalAlex VerdugoDiaz could play center field, but I still think left field is more likely for him. Mieses and Sandoval can play all three spots, with each fitting better in a corner than the other. Verdugo is probably average in center field who could be plus to plus-plus in right field.Best Defensive Outfielder: VerdugoBest Outfield ArmWho has the best outfield hose?CandidatesJohan MiesesDJ PetersAndrew TolesAlex VerdugoMieses’ arm is plenty strong for right field. Peters’ arm projects to be above-average in center field. Toles showed off his arm last season in the majors, but Verdugo’s arm is tops here. He was looked at by most as a pitcher before the Dodgers drafted him as an outfielder.Best Outfield Arm: VerdugoBest 5-Tool ProspectNo Joc Pederson or Yasiel Puig‘s here.CandidatesJohan MiesesAlex VerdugoThe shortest competition, with Mieses having the edge on power over Verdugo. But his inability to make consistent contact, coupled with his poor approach make it likely that he never hits for a high enough average to claim this. Verdugo might not ever hit 20 home runs in a Major League season, but he’ll do everything else well enough.Best 5-Tool Prospect: VerdugoTools PlayerBest Hitter for Average Alex VerdugoBest Power Hitter Cody BellingerBest Strike Zone Discipline Will SmithFastest Baserunner Drew JacksonBest Athlete Drew JacksonBest Fastball Yadier AlvarezBest Curveball Mitchell WhiteBest Slider Yadier AlvarezBest Changeup Jordan SheffieldBest Sinker Trevor OaksBest Command/Control Brock StewartBest Defensive Catcher Will SmithBest Defensive Infielder Cody BellingerBest Infield Arm Edwin RiosBest Defensive Outfielder Alex VerdugoBest Outfield Arm Alex VerdugoBest 5-Tool Prospect Alex Verdugohttp://dodgersdigest.com/2017/04/12/201 ... est-tools/ 1 by Hacksaw_64 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 2686 Joined: Sep 08 2015 Inglewood, CA Moderator The Dodgers POST #453 by snackdaddy 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #454 TOPIC AUTHOR Kershaw being Kershaw. Most dominant pitcher in the league. If the Dodgers are sitting with a nice division lead in September I'd consider limiting his pitch count. Maybe even skip a start to keep him fresher for the post season. He's so good you know he'll go 7 innings plus most games. I'd worry about a tired arm in October. by snackdaddy 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #455 TOPIC AUTHOR 69superbowl liked this post Dodgers still trucking along. Another win streak at 4. I believe they're something like 37-11 since they were sitting at 22-18. Last year the Cubs looked like the stacked team with their combination of hitting and pitching. This year the Dodgers are a top 5 scoring team. Best in the league in team ERA. They appear to be the stacked team. Best record in NL by 5.5 games. Swept both teams that are challenging them for the division and best record. They seem to have what a good team needs. Elite starting pitcher. Elite closer. High scoring offense with power. Solid bullpen. The only thing that concerns me is the starting pitching after Kershaw. When you get in the playoffs runs are harder to come by because pitching is always tougher. You have to have the pitching to match theirs. Wood is having a Kershaw type season. His numbers are actually better than Kershaw's. But he's stepping into new territory for him. He's had his moments before this season but can he sustain it into October? If he can I gotta think the Dodgers will be in the best position they've been in to get to the World Series. So the question remains, what do they do before the trade deadline? I can't see them making any changes by giving up a position player and breaking up a good team chemistry. So their outfield/infield should remain intact. Do they trade prospects for another top end starting pitcher? Or is what they have good enough? I'm of the belief that you can't have enough starters. I wouldn't mind another starter to bolster the depth. Maeda and Hill pitched well the past times they were out there. But they're also capable of putting up some stinkers too. To go with them in the post season as the 3rd and 4th starters is iffy. I would mind another starter and moving Maeda to long relief. All in all I like the Dodgers chances this year. Kershaw is starting to pitch the post season like the regular season. I think he learned some things about the post season over the years. He could easily do what Bumgarner did for SF. All they need is someone else to step up. The Dodgers have been knocking on the door for several years. Its time the knock the damn thing down. 1 by Hacksaw 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 24523 Joined: Apr 15 2015 AT THE BEACH Moderator The Dodgers POST #456 snackdaddy wrote:Kershaw being Kershaw. Most dominant pitcher in the league. If the Dodgers are sitting with a nice division lead in September I'd consider limiting his pitch count. Maybe even skip a start to keep him fresher for the post season. He's so good you know he'll go 7 innings plus most games. I'd worry about a tired arm in October.Good call as long as #2 & #3 can keep up the mo.@snackdaddy, this team has the mojo. I could see us easily advancing in the playoffs after taking the NLW enant GO RAMS !!! GO DODGERS !!! GO LAKERS !!!THE GREATEST SHOW ON TURF,, WAS by snackdaddy 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #457 TOPIC AUTHOR Hacksaw wrote:Good call as long as #2 & #3 can keep up the mo.@snackdaddy, this team has the mojo. I could see us easily advancing in the playoffs after taking the NLW enantDodgers haven been a regular playoff contestant for several years now. They've been knocking on the door. Could this be the year they kick it down? Last year it was clear the Cubs were better. This year the Dodgers are looking like that team. I'd still feel better about their chances if they acquired one more high end starter for the rotation. Dodgers have a good offense but the playoffs are about pitching. Good pitching stops good hitting most the time. by snackdaddy 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #458 TOPIC AUTHOR 69superbowl liked this post This guy says the Dodgers and Astros are in the best position to take home the title. At the end he seems to think the Dodgers are the favorites:http://m.mlb.com/news/article/241739968 ... s-of-2017/By Mike Petriello / MLB.com | @mike_petriello | 12:44 AM ET + 53 COMMENTSIf we can take just a moment to look past Aaron Judge's ongoing home run heroics, there's another potentially historic story brewing in Major League Baseball. The Dodgers (61-29) and the Astros (60-29) are each on pace to win 109 games. This year marks the first time since 1969 that two teams have hit 60 wins by the break.None of this is to say both the Astros and Dodgers will reach 109 wins, of course. As we've noted previously, if you could simply double first-half stats, Alex Wood would go 20-0. (He won't.) But even if both clubs slow down and reach "only" 105 wins, well, only 24 teams have done even that in baseball history. Only once have we ever had two teams do it in the same season, and as noted, the 1998 Yankees and Braves had newly minted expansion teams to feast on. So regardless of whether they end up with 101 or 107 or 109 wins (or more), these are two teams that are not only all but guaranteed to be playing October baseball, but are likely to add even more talent before the July 31 non-waiver Trade Deadline. They're the class of baseball in 2017, led by analytically minded front offices and young, respected managers. But which one is better?Astros' midseason momentsAstros' midseason momentsCarlos Correa and George Springer are key contributors for the Astros in the first half of the 2017 seasonIt's the kind of question many of us would like to see answered on the field in late October. For now, the best we can do is to compare each roster and make some judgment calls. Spoiler: They're both really, really good.(For ease of comparison, we'll use Weighted Runs Created Plus, or wRC+, a park-adjusted hitting stat that sets "100" as league-average. A 120 wRC+, for example, can be read as "20 points above league average.")CatcherDodger catchers Yasmani Grandal and Austin Barnes have combined to hit .272/.343/.489 (121 wRC+). Astros catchers Brian McCann and Evan Gattis have combined to hit .271/.340/.475 (117 wRC+), and that's about as close to being even as you can get. Grandal and Barnes each rate more highly at pitch framing than McCann and Gattis do, but even so, these are two similarly talented backstop duos. We'll call this one a draw. First baseStatcast: Bellinger's two homersStatcast: Bellinger's two homersStatcast measures the exit velocity, launch angle and projected distance of Cody Bellinger's two early homers against Zack WheelerAlthough Cody Bellinger (.261/.342/.619, 145 wRC+) has started more games in the outfield, we'll count him at first, because he's been almost exclusively starting there since Adrian Gonzalez hurt his back, and he'll probably stay there for the foreseeable future since Gonzalez may not return until September, and even then perhaps only as a pinch-hitter. Even if Bellinger doesn't quite maintain this pace, he's got a sizable edge on both sides of the ball over Yuli Gurriel (.297/.321/.491, 115 wRC+). Second baseSome of these are going to be extremely close, and some -- all due respect to Logan Forsythe, who is better than he's shown -- are not. After a poor start to the year, Forsythe (.249/.369/.345, 101 wRC+) has clawed back to league average, and that's something. Of course, Houston doesn't just have baseball's best all-around second baseman in Jose Altuve (.347/.417/.551, 161 wRC+), it also has a superstar who may be one of the game's five best players. It's an easy call here.ShortstopIn the world of extremely talented young shortstops, Carlos Correa (23 in September) and Corey Seager (who turned 23 in April) shine the brightest. Correa (.325/.402/.577, 161 wRC+) is outslugging Seager (.298/.395/.502, 139 wRC+) this year, but Seager was on top last year, and advanced metrics prefer him on defense. Pick either one you like; there's no wrong answer here. Third baseTurner on chances to hit .400Turner on chances to hit .400First-time All-Star Justin Turner talks about the company on the NL team as well as the chances to hit .400 this seasonIf he weren't just a handful of at-bats short of qualifying, Justin Turner (.377/.473/.583, 183 wRC+) would have the second-best line in baseball behind only Judge, and he adds value with the glove as well. Meanwhile, the future remains bright for young Alex Bregman (.256/.338/.419, 104 wRC+) but he hasn't quite put it all together just yet. Left fieldIf we're considering Bellinger a first baseman, we're left with a position that seems very likely to be upgraded by the Deadline for the Dodgers, given that both Andrew Toles and Andre Ethier have had their seasons destroyed by injury. Chris Taylor (.285/.365/.480, 127 wRC+) has been one of baseball's best out-of-nowhere stories, but he has little track record and may function best off the bench (he's started at second, third, short, left and center). That said, Houston's primary left fielder has been Norichika Aoki (.264/.316/.331, 75 wRC+), in the midst of his worst season. Both teams could make moves here.Center fieldStatcast: Springer's 456-ft. HRStatcast: Springer's 456-ft. HRStatcast measures George Springer's 456-ft. home run that left the bat at 107.9 mph and with a launch angle of 25 degreesGeorge Springer (.310/.380/.613, 164 wRC+) complicates this a bit by splitting his time between center and right, but since he's made 52 starts in center as opposed to only 29 in right, we'll keep him here. And like Altuve, he's become one of the game's best players. Joc Pederson (.241/.361/.466, 122 wRC+, with some questionable defensive metrics) has been more "good" than "great," and while he's not the only face you'll see out here, we'll get back to that in the "Bench" section. Right fieldWith Springer in center, former Dodger Josh Reddick is in right, and his first half (.313/.365/.515, 134 wRC+) puts him on track for the best season of his career. (He's hit like Anthony Rizzo and Miguel Sano so far this year.) Yasiel Puig (.251/.324/.453, 104 wRC+), who was briefly demoted to the Minors last year when Reddick arrived in Los Angeles, remains a valuable defender, but as a league-average hitter, his overall value is limited.BenchGonzalez's two-run homerGonzalez's two-run homerMarwin Gonzalez hammers a two-run home run to right field to give the Astros a 4-3 lead in the bottom of the 4th inningPerhaps more than any other teams in the game, these rosters are built around depth. While both have stars, both clubs could survive without them, because there's just so much talent here. For example, we've talked about Barnes, Gattis, and Taylor, but haven't yet mentioned Marwin Gonzalez, having an out-of-nowhere great season (.308/.391/.576, 158 wRC+) while starting at five spots. Or Jake Marisnick, having a similarly impressive year (.248/.320/.504, 119 wRC+) while adding defensive value in the outfield. Or Enrique Hernandez, who exists to crush lefties (.250/.344/.607, 144 wRC+, against southpaws) while starting at seven spots.Need "veteran presence?" Neither 38-year-old Chase Utley (.226/.326/.390, 95 wRC+) nor 40-year-old Carlos Beltran (.227/.284/.406, 82 wRC+, mostly as Houston's DH) hit anymore like they did in their youth, but both teams swear by them in the clubhouse. Any changes here would be on the fringes; both clubs are so deep. This one is a push. Starting pitchingSo far, none of these calls is all that controversial. Let's go ahead and change that right now, by giving the edge to the Dodgers, despite how talented the Astros' rotation is. That's in large part due to Clayton Kershaw, who remains baseball's best pitcher despite the attempts of others to take the throne. While Dallas Keuchel is a stud and was off to a great start, he's also coming off a poor 2016 and has been out of action with a neck issue for more than a month, so it's hard to argue he's quite there with Kershaw.Beyond their aces, the Dodgers' rotation has a better ERA (3.24 to 3.82), has baseball's second-highest whiff rate (25.4 percent), and has induced the weakest quality contact of anyone. But for both of these teams, it comes down to health. Can you really rely on Wood, Rich Hill and Brandon McCarthy being there in three months? Or Keuchel, Lance McCullers Jr. or Charlie Morton? Or Brad Peacock (who's been great) to last all year in the rotation? One of these teams is going to get a Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray or Marco Estrada -- perhaps both.BullpenDodgers' bullpen dominatesDodgers' bullpen dominatesThe Dodgers' bullpen proves to be clutch, with Kenley Jansen leading the wayAt first glance, this might not seem so close, given that Houston's bullpen has a 4.09 ERA and Los Angeles has a 2.99 mark, the second best in baseball, but we know that ERA is a very imperfect way to measure relievers. Beyond that, we know that the depth relievers you need to get through a season aren't likely to impact the club so much in October, so it may not matter that someone like Sergio Romo has a 6.12 ERA right now. As we've noted before, the Astros' 'pen can be great.Knowing that additions are likely to come, let's take six top Dodgers relievers (Kenley Jansen, Pedro Baez, Brandon Morrow, Luis Avilan, Ross Stripling and Josh Fields) and six top Astros relievers (Ken Giles, Chris Devenski, Peacock, Will Harris, Luke Gregerson and Michael Feliz) and compare what they've done. The six Dodgers have a 2.82 FIP; the six Astros have a 2.90 FIP. The six Dodgers have a .261 xwOBA, which measures quality of contact (exit velocity plus launch angle), along with strikeouts; the six Astros have a .262 xwOBA. Close enough for you?Los Angeles doesn't have a multi-inning weapon like Devenski, but Houston doesn't have a shutdown closer like Jansen. These are both strong units, and neither has a clear edge.So, overall, which team is the best? They're both great, of course, and this could potentially be one of the most interesting World Series matchups in years if we get that far, though you'll note that the 2001 Mariners and the 1969 Cubs did not reach the Fall Classic. But as things stand today, no team is in better position than the Dodgers, who have to be considered the favorites to end what's nearly a three-decade title drought.Mike Petriello is an analyst for MLB.com and the host of the Statcast podcast. He has previously written for ESPN Insider and FanGraphs. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs. 1 by snackdaddy 7 years 3 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #459 TOPIC AUTHOR Well, the injury bug had to happen. Kershaw out 4 to 6 weeks. Fortunately they have a big lead and they're still talented enough to win regular season games without him. But they're not talented enough to get through the post season without him. Maybe this is a blessing in disguise. If he returns in time to pitch a few games in September he should be well rested for October. The only concern would be if his back is worse than originally thought. I don't think he's seen a back specialist yet. You never know with a back injury. by PARAM 7 years 3 months ago Total posts: 12560 Joined: Jul 15 2015 Just far enough North of Philadelphia Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #460 The Dodgers are en fuego!! 42 games over .500 is unreal!! Winning 70% of your games will get you a long way. A 5 game series; 3.5 wins. A 7 game series 4.9 wins. So going into the postseason, they have to be favored no worse than winning the first round in 4 games and the NLCS in 6. The Series? They'll be favored in that too. Obviously, it's a good time to be a Dodger fan. Been following the horns since the Coliseum had a Roman playing there. McVay: 77-49, 2 Superbowls, 1 Lombardi............Doubt at your own peril Reply 46 / 82 1 46 82 Display: All posts1 day7 days2 weeks1 month3 months6 months1 year Sort by: AuthorPost timeSubject Sort by: AscendingDescending Jump to: Forum Rams/NFL Other Sports Rams Fans United Q&A's Board Business 819 posts Nov 21 2024 FOLLOW US @RAMSFANSUNITED Who liked this post
by Hacksaw_64 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 2686 Joined: Sep 08 2015 Inglewood, CA Moderator The Dodgers POST #453 by snackdaddy 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #454 TOPIC AUTHOR Kershaw being Kershaw. Most dominant pitcher in the league. If the Dodgers are sitting with a nice division lead in September I'd consider limiting his pitch count. Maybe even skip a start to keep him fresher for the post season. He's so good you know he'll go 7 innings plus most games. I'd worry about a tired arm in October. by snackdaddy 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #455 TOPIC AUTHOR 69superbowl liked this post Dodgers still trucking along. Another win streak at 4. I believe they're something like 37-11 since they were sitting at 22-18. Last year the Cubs looked like the stacked team with their combination of hitting and pitching. This year the Dodgers are a top 5 scoring team. Best in the league in team ERA. They appear to be the stacked team. Best record in NL by 5.5 games. Swept both teams that are challenging them for the division and best record. They seem to have what a good team needs. Elite starting pitcher. Elite closer. High scoring offense with power. Solid bullpen. The only thing that concerns me is the starting pitching after Kershaw. When you get in the playoffs runs are harder to come by because pitching is always tougher. You have to have the pitching to match theirs. Wood is having a Kershaw type season. His numbers are actually better than Kershaw's. But he's stepping into new territory for him. He's had his moments before this season but can he sustain it into October? If he can I gotta think the Dodgers will be in the best position they've been in to get to the World Series. So the question remains, what do they do before the trade deadline? I can't see them making any changes by giving up a position player and breaking up a good team chemistry. So their outfield/infield should remain intact. Do they trade prospects for another top end starting pitcher? Or is what they have good enough? I'm of the belief that you can't have enough starters. I wouldn't mind another starter to bolster the depth. Maeda and Hill pitched well the past times they were out there. But they're also capable of putting up some stinkers too. To go with them in the post season as the 3rd and 4th starters is iffy. I would mind another starter and moving Maeda to long relief. All in all I like the Dodgers chances this year. Kershaw is starting to pitch the post season like the regular season. I think he learned some things about the post season over the years. He could easily do what Bumgarner did for SF. All they need is someone else to step up. The Dodgers have been knocking on the door for several years. Its time the knock the damn thing down. 1 by Hacksaw 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 24523 Joined: Apr 15 2015 AT THE BEACH Moderator The Dodgers POST #456 snackdaddy wrote:Kershaw being Kershaw. Most dominant pitcher in the league. If the Dodgers are sitting with a nice division lead in September I'd consider limiting his pitch count. Maybe even skip a start to keep him fresher for the post season. He's so good you know he'll go 7 innings plus most games. I'd worry about a tired arm in October.Good call as long as #2 & #3 can keep up the mo.@snackdaddy, this team has the mojo. I could see us easily advancing in the playoffs after taking the NLW enant GO RAMS !!! GO DODGERS !!! GO LAKERS !!!THE GREATEST SHOW ON TURF,, WAS by snackdaddy 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #457 TOPIC AUTHOR Hacksaw wrote:Good call as long as #2 & #3 can keep up the mo.@snackdaddy, this team has the mojo. I could see us easily advancing in the playoffs after taking the NLW enantDodgers haven been a regular playoff contestant for several years now. They've been knocking on the door. Could this be the year they kick it down? Last year it was clear the Cubs were better. This year the Dodgers are looking like that team. I'd still feel better about their chances if they acquired one more high end starter for the rotation. Dodgers have a good offense but the playoffs are about pitching. Good pitching stops good hitting most the time. by snackdaddy 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #458 TOPIC AUTHOR 69superbowl liked this post This guy says the Dodgers and Astros are in the best position to take home the title. At the end he seems to think the Dodgers are the favorites:http://m.mlb.com/news/article/241739968 ... s-of-2017/By Mike Petriello / MLB.com | @mike_petriello | 12:44 AM ET + 53 COMMENTSIf we can take just a moment to look past Aaron Judge's ongoing home run heroics, there's another potentially historic story brewing in Major League Baseball. The Dodgers (61-29) and the Astros (60-29) are each on pace to win 109 games. This year marks the first time since 1969 that two teams have hit 60 wins by the break.None of this is to say both the Astros and Dodgers will reach 109 wins, of course. As we've noted previously, if you could simply double first-half stats, Alex Wood would go 20-0. (He won't.) But even if both clubs slow down and reach "only" 105 wins, well, only 24 teams have done even that in baseball history. Only once have we ever had two teams do it in the same season, and as noted, the 1998 Yankees and Braves had newly minted expansion teams to feast on. So regardless of whether they end up with 101 or 107 or 109 wins (or more), these are two teams that are not only all but guaranteed to be playing October baseball, but are likely to add even more talent before the July 31 non-waiver Trade Deadline. They're the class of baseball in 2017, led by analytically minded front offices and young, respected managers. But which one is better?Astros' midseason momentsAstros' midseason momentsCarlos Correa and George Springer are key contributors for the Astros in the first half of the 2017 seasonIt's the kind of question many of us would like to see answered on the field in late October. For now, the best we can do is to compare each roster and make some judgment calls. Spoiler: They're both really, really good.(For ease of comparison, we'll use Weighted Runs Created Plus, or wRC+, a park-adjusted hitting stat that sets "100" as league-average. A 120 wRC+, for example, can be read as "20 points above league average.")CatcherDodger catchers Yasmani Grandal and Austin Barnes have combined to hit .272/.343/.489 (121 wRC+). Astros catchers Brian McCann and Evan Gattis have combined to hit .271/.340/.475 (117 wRC+), and that's about as close to being even as you can get. Grandal and Barnes each rate more highly at pitch framing than McCann and Gattis do, but even so, these are two similarly talented backstop duos. We'll call this one a draw. First baseStatcast: Bellinger's two homersStatcast: Bellinger's two homersStatcast measures the exit velocity, launch angle and projected distance of Cody Bellinger's two early homers against Zack WheelerAlthough Cody Bellinger (.261/.342/.619, 145 wRC+) has started more games in the outfield, we'll count him at first, because he's been almost exclusively starting there since Adrian Gonzalez hurt his back, and he'll probably stay there for the foreseeable future since Gonzalez may not return until September, and even then perhaps only as a pinch-hitter. Even if Bellinger doesn't quite maintain this pace, he's got a sizable edge on both sides of the ball over Yuli Gurriel (.297/.321/.491, 115 wRC+). Second baseSome of these are going to be extremely close, and some -- all due respect to Logan Forsythe, who is better than he's shown -- are not. After a poor start to the year, Forsythe (.249/.369/.345, 101 wRC+) has clawed back to league average, and that's something. Of course, Houston doesn't just have baseball's best all-around second baseman in Jose Altuve (.347/.417/.551, 161 wRC+), it also has a superstar who may be one of the game's five best players. It's an easy call here.ShortstopIn the world of extremely talented young shortstops, Carlos Correa (23 in September) and Corey Seager (who turned 23 in April) shine the brightest. Correa (.325/.402/.577, 161 wRC+) is outslugging Seager (.298/.395/.502, 139 wRC+) this year, but Seager was on top last year, and advanced metrics prefer him on defense. Pick either one you like; there's no wrong answer here. Third baseTurner on chances to hit .400Turner on chances to hit .400First-time All-Star Justin Turner talks about the company on the NL team as well as the chances to hit .400 this seasonIf he weren't just a handful of at-bats short of qualifying, Justin Turner (.377/.473/.583, 183 wRC+) would have the second-best line in baseball behind only Judge, and he adds value with the glove as well. Meanwhile, the future remains bright for young Alex Bregman (.256/.338/.419, 104 wRC+) but he hasn't quite put it all together just yet. Left fieldIf we're considering Bellinger a first baseman, we're left with a position that seems very likely to be upgraded by the Deadline for the Dodgers, given that both Andrew Toles and Andre Ethier have had their seasons destroyed by injury. Chris Taylor (.285/.365/.480, 127 wRC+) has been one of baseball's best out-of-nowhere stories, but he has little track record and may function best off the bench (he's started at second, third, short, left and center). That said, Houston's primary left fielder has been Norichika Aoki (.264/.316/.331, 75 wRC+), in the midst of his worst season. Both teams could make moves here.Center fieldStatcast: Springer's 456-ft. HRStatcast: Springer's 456-ft. HRStatcast measures George Springer's 456-ft. home run that left the bat at 107.9 mph and with a launch angle of 25 degreesGeorge Springer (.310/.380/.613, 164 wRC+) complicates this a bit by splitting his time between center and right, but since he's made 52 starts in center as opposed to only 29 in right, we'll keep him here. And like Altuve, he's become one of the game's best players. Joc Pederson (.241/.361/.466, 122 wRC+, with some questionable defensive metrics) has been more "good" than "great," and while he's not the only face you'll see out here, we'll get back to that in the "Bench" section. Right fieldWith Springer in center, former Dodger Josh Reddick is in right, and his first half (.313/.365/.515, 134 wRC+) puts him on track for the best season of his career. (He's hit like Anthony Rizzo and Miguel Sano so far this year.) Yasiel Puig (.251/.324/.453, 104 wRC+), who was briefly demoted to the Minors last year when Reddick arrived in Los Angeles, remains a valuable defender, but as a league-average hitter, his overall value is limited.BenchGonzalez's two-run homerGonzalez's two-run homerMarwin Gonzalez hammers a two-run home run to right field to give the Astros a 4-3 lead in the bottom of the 4th inningPerhaps more than any other teams in the game, these rosters are built around depth. While both have stars, both clubs could survive without them, because there's just so much talent here. For example, we've talked about Barnes, Gattis, and Taylor, but haven't yet mentioned Marwin Gonzalez, having an out-of-nowhere great season (.308/.391/.576, 158 wRC+) while starting at five spots. Or Jake Marisnick, having a similarly impressive year (.248/.320/.504, 119 wRC+) while adding defensive value in the outfield. Or Enrique Hernandez, who exists to crush lefties (.250/.344/.607, 144 wRC+, against southpaws) while starting at seven spots.Need "veteran presence?" Neither 38-year-old Chase Utley (.226/.326/.390, 95 wRC+) nor 40-year-old Carlos Beltran (.227/.284/.406, 82 wRC+, mostly as Houston's DH) hit anymore like they did in their youth, but both teams swear by them in the clubhouse. Any changes here would be on the fringes; both clubs are so deep. This one is a push. Starting pitchingSo far, none of these calls is all that controversial. Let's go ahead and change that right now, by giving the edge to the Dodgers, despite how talented the Astros' rotation is. That's in large part due to Clayton Kershaw, who remains baseball's best pitcher despite the attempts of others to take the throne. While Dallas Keuchel is a stud and was off to a great start, he's also coming off a poor 2016 and has been out of action with a neck issue for more than a month, so it's hard to argue he's quite there with Kershaw.Beyond their aces, the Dodgers' rotation has a better ERA (3.24 to 3.82), has baseball's second-highest whiff rate (25.4 percent), and has induced the weakest quality contact of anyone. But for both of these teams, it comes down to health. Can you really rely on Wood, Rich Hill and Brandon McCarthy being there in three months? Or Keuchel, Lance McCullers Jr. or Charlie Morton? Or Brad Peacock (who's been great) to last all year in the rotation? One of these teams is going to get a Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray or Marco Estrada -- perhaps both.BullpenDodgers' bullpen dominatesDodgers' bullpen dominatesThe Dodgers' bullpen proves to be clutch, with Kenley Jansen leading the wayAt first glance, this might not seem so close, given that Houston's bullpen has a 4.09 ERA and Los Angeles has a 2.99 mark, the second best in baseball, but we know that ERA is a very imperfect way to measure relievers. Beyond that, we know that the depth relievers you need to get through a season aren't likely to impact the club so much in October, so it may not matter that someone like Sergio Romo has a 6.12 ERA right now. As we've noted before, the Astros' 'pen can be great.Knowing that additions are likely to come, let's take six top Dodgers relievers (Kenley Jansen, Pedro Baez, Brandon Morrow, Luis Avilan, Ross Stripling and Josh Fields) and six top Astros relievers (Ken Giles, Chris Devenski, Peacock, Will Harris, Luke Gregerson and Michael Feliz) and compare what they've done. The six Dodgers have a 2.82 FIP; the six Astros have a 2.90 FIP. The six Dodgers have a .261 xwOBA, which measures quality of contact (exit velocity plus launch angle), along with strikeouts; the six Astros have a .262 xwOBA. Close enough for you?Los Angeles doesn't have a multi-inning weapon like Devenski, but Houston doesn't have a shutdown closer like Jansen. These are both strong units, and neither has a clear edge.So, overall, which team is the best? They're both great, of course, and this could potentially be one of the most interesting World Series matchups in years if we get that far, though you'll note that the 2001 Mariners and the 1969 Cubs did not reach the Fall Classic. But as things stand today, no team is in better position than the Dodgers, who have to be considered the favorites to end what's nearly a three-decade title drought.Mike Petriello is an analyst for MLB.com and the host of the Statcast podcast. He has previously written for ESPN Insider and FanGraphs. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs. 1 by snackdaddy 7 years 3 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #459 TOPIC AUTHOR Well, the injury bug had to happen. Kershaw out 4 to 6 weeks. Fortunately they have a big lead and they're still talented enough to win regular season games without him. But they're not talented enough to get through the post season without him. Maybe this is a blessing in disguise. If he returns in time to pitch a few games in September he should be well rested for October. The only concern would be if his back is worse than originally thought. I don't think he's seen a back specialist yet. You never know with a back injury. by PARAM 7 years 3 months ago Total posts: 12560 Joined: Jul 15 2015 Just far enough North of Philadelphia Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #460 The Dodgers are en fuego!! 42 games over .500 is unreal!! Winning 70% of your games will get you a long way. A 5 game series; 3.5 wins. A 7 game series 4.9 wins. So going into the postseason, they have to be favored no worse than winning the first round in 4 games and the NLCS in 6. The Series? They'll be favored in that too. Obviously, it's a good time to be a Dodger fan. Been following the horns since the Coliseum had a Roman playing there. McVay: 77-49, 2 Superbowls, 1 Lombardi............Doubt at your own peril Reply 46 / 82 1 46 82 Display: All posts1 day7 days2 weeks1 month3 months6 months1 year Sort by: AuthorPost timeSubject Sort by: AscendingDescending Jump to: Forum Rams/NFL Other Sports Rams Fans United Q&A's Board Business 819 posts Nov 21 2024 FOLLOW US @RAMSFANSUNITED Who liked this post
by snackdaddy 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #454 TOPIC AUTHOR Kershaw being Kershaw. Most dominant pitcher in the league. If the Dodgers are sitting with a nice division lead in September I'd consider limiting his pitch count. Maybe even skip a start to keep him fresher for the post season. He's so good you know he'll go 7 innings plus most games. I'd worry about a tired arm in October. by snackdaddy 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #455 TOPIC AUTHOR 69superbowl liked this post Dodgers still trucking along. Another win streak at 4. I believe they're something like 37-11 since they were sitting at 22-18. Last year the Cubs looked like the stacked team with their combination of hitting and pitching. This year the Dodgers are a top 5 scoring team. Best in the league in team ERA. They appear to be the stacked team. Best record in NL by 5.5 games. Swept both teams that are challenging them for the division and best record. They seem to have what a good team needs. Elite starting pitcher. Elite closer. High scoring offense with power. Solid bullpen. The only thing that concerns me is the starting pitching after Kershaw. When you get in the playoffs runs are harder to come by because pitching is always tougher. You have to have the pitching to match theirs. Wood is having a Kershaw type season. His numbers are actually better than Kershaw's. But he's stepping into new territory for him. He's had his moments before this season but can he sustain it into October? If he can I gotta think the Dodgers will be in the best position they've been in to get to the World Series. So the question remains, what do they do before the trade deadline? I can't see them making any changes by giving up a position player and breaking up a good team chemistry. So their outfield/infield should remain intact. Do they trade prospects for another top end starting pitcher? Or is what they have good enough? I'm of the belief that you can't have enough starters. I wouldn't mind another starter to bolster the depth. Maeda and Hill pitched well the past times they were out there. But they're also capable of putting up some stinkers too. To go with them in the post season as the 3rd and 4th starters is iffy. I would mind another starter and moving Maeda to long relief. All in all I like the Dodgers chances this year. Kershaw is starting to pitch the post season like the regular season. I think he learned some things about the post season over the years. He could easily do what Bumgarner did for SF. All they need is someone else to step up. The Dodgers have been knocking on the door for several years. Its time the knock the damn thing down. 1 by Hacksaw 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 24523 Joined: Apr 15 2015 AT THE BEACH Moderator The Dodgers POST #456 snackdaddy wrote:Kershaw being Kershaw. Most dominant pitcher in the league. If the Dodgers are sitting with a nice division lead in September I'd consider limiting his pitch count. Maybe even skip a start to keep him fresher for the post season. He's so good you know he'll go 7 innings plus most games. I'd worry about a tired arm in October.Good call as long as #2 & #3 can keep up the mo.@snackdaddy, this team has the mojo. I could see us easily advancing in the playoffs after taking the NLW enant GO RAMS !!! GO DODGERS !!! GO LAKERS !!!THE GREATEST SHOW ON TURF,, WAS by snackdaddy 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #457 TOPIC AUTHOR Hacksaw wrote:Good call as long as #2 & #3 can keep up the mo.@snackdaddy, this team has the mojo. I could see us easily advancing in the playoffs after taking the NLW enantDodgers haven been a regular playoff contestant for several years now. They've been knocking on the door. Could this be the year they kick it down? Last year it was clear the Cubs were better. This year the Dodgers are looking like that team. I'd still feel better about their chances if they acquired one more high end starter for the rotation. Dodgers have a good offense but the playoffs are about pitching. Good pitching stops good hitting most the time. by snackdaddy 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #458 TOPIC AUTHOR 69superbowl liked this post This guy says the Dodgers and Astros are in the best position to take home the title. At the end he seems to think the Dodgers are the favorites:http://m.mlb.com/news/article/241739968 ... s-of-2017/By Mike Petriello / MLB.com | @mike_petriello | 12:44 AM ET + 53 COMMENTSIf we can take just a moment to look past Aaron Judge's ongoing home run heroics, there's another potentially historic story brewing in Major League Baseball. The Dodgers (61-29) and the Astros (60-29) are each on pace to win 109 games. This year marks the first time since 1969 that two teams have hit 60 wins by the break.None of this is to say both the Astros and Dodgers will reach 109 wins, of course. As we've noted previously, if you could simply double first-half stats, Alex Wood would go 20-0. (He won't.) But even if both clubs slow down and reach "only" 105 wins, well, only 24 teams have done even that in baseball history. Only once have we ever had two teams do it in the same season, and as noted, the 1998 Yankees and Braves had newly minted expansion teams to feast on. So regardless of whether they end up with 101 or 107 or 109 wins (or more), these are two teams that are not only all but guaranteed to be playing October baseball, but are likely to add even more talent before the July 31 non-waiver Trade Deadline. They're the class of baseball in 2017, led by analytically minded front offices and young, respected managers. But which one is better?Astros' midseason momentsAstros' midseason momentsCarlos Correa and George Springer are key contributors for the Astros in the first half of the 2017 seasonIt's the kind of question many of us would like to see answered on the field in late October. For now, the best we can do is to compare each roster and make some judgment calls. Spoiler: They're both really, really good.(For ease of comparison, we'll use Weighted Runs Created Plus, or wRC+, a park-adjusted hitting stat that sets "100" as league-average. A 120 wRC+, for example, can be read as "20 points above league average.")CatcherDodger catchers Yasmani Grandal and Austin Barnes have combined to hit .272/.343/.489 (121 wRC+). Astros catchers Brian McCann and Evan Gattis have combined to hit .271/.340/.475 (117 wRC+), and that's about as close to being even as you can get. Grandal and Barnes each rate more highly at pitch framing than McCann and Gattis do, but even so, these are two similarly talented backstop duos. We'll call this one a draw. First baseStatcast: Bellinger's two homersStatcast: Bellinger's two homersStatcast measures the exit velocity, launch angle and projected distance of Cody Bellinger's two early homers against Zack WheelerAlthough Cody Bellinger (.261/.342/.619, 145 wRC+) has started more games in the outfield, we'll count him at first, because he's been almost exclusively starting there since Adrian Gonzalez hurt his back, and he'll probably stay there for the foreseeable future since Gonzalez may not return until September, and even then perhaps only as a pinch-hitter. Even if Bellinger doesn't quite maintain this pace, he's got a sizable edge on both sides of the ball over Yuli Gurriel (.297/.321/.491, 115 wRC+). Second baseSome of these are going to be extremely close, and some -- all due respect to Logan Forsythe, who is better than he's shown -- are not. After a poor start to the year, Forsythe (.249/.369/.345, 101 wRC+) has clawed back to league average, and that's something. Of course, Houston doesn't just have baseball's best all-around second baseman in Jose Altuve (.347/.417/.551, 161 wRC+), it also has a superstar who may be one of the game's five best players. It's an easy call here.ShortstopIn the world of extremely talented young shortstops, Carlos Correa (23 in September) and Corey Seager (who turned 23 in April) shine the brightest. Correa (.325/.402/.577, 161 wRC+) is outslugging Seager (.298/.395/.502, 139 wRC+) this year, but Seager was on top last year, and advanced metrics prefer him on defense. Pick either one you like; there's no wrong answer here. Third baseTurner on chances to hit .400Turner on chances to hit .400First-time All-Star Justin Turner talks about the company on the NL team as well as the chances to hit .400 this seasonIf he weren't just a handful of at-bats short of qualifying, Justin Turner (.377/.473/.583, 183 wRC+) would have the second-best line in baseball behind only Judge, and he adds value with the glove as well. Meanwhile, the future remains bright for young Alex Bregman (.256/.338/.419, 104 wRC+) but he hasn't quite put it all together just yet. Left fieldIf we're considering Bellinger a first baseman, we're left with a position that seems very likely to be upgraded by the Deadline for the Dodgers, given that both Andrew Toles and Andre Ethier have had their seasons destroyed by injury. Chris Taylor (.285/.365/.480, 127 wRC+) has been one of baseball's best out-of-nowhere stories, but he has little track record and may function best off the bench (he's started at second, third, short, left and center). That said, Houston's primary left fielder has been Norichika Aoki (.264/.316/.331, 75 wRC+), in the midst of his worst season. Both teams could make moves here.Center fieldStatcast: Springer's 456-ft. HRStatcast: Springer's 456-ft. HRStatcast measures George Springer's 456-ft. home run that left the bat at 107.9 mph and with a launch angle of 25 degreesGeorge Springer (.310/.380/.613, 164 wRC+) complicates this a bit by splitting his time between center and right, but since he's made 52 starts in center as opposed to only 29 in right, we'll keep him here. And like Altuve, he's become one of the game's best players. Joc Pederson (.241/.361/.466, 122 wRC+, with some questionable defensive metrics) has been more "good" than "great," and while he's not the only face you'll see out here, we'll get back to that in the "Bench" section. Right fieldWith Springer in center, former Dodger Josh Reddick is in right, and his first half (.313/.365/.515, 134 wRC+) puts him on track for the best season of his career. (He's hit like Anthony Rizzo and Miguel Sano so far this year.) Yasiel Puig (.251/.324/.453, 104 wRC+), who was briefly demoted to the Minors last year when Reddick arrived in Los Angeles, remains a valuable defender, but as a league-average hitter, his overall value is limited.BenchGonzalez's two-run homerGonzalez's two-run homerMarwin Gonzalez hammers a two-run home run to right field to give the Astros a 4-3 lead in the bottom of the 4th inningPerhaps more than any other teams in the game, these rosters are built around depth. While both have stars, both clubs could survive without them, because there's just so much talent here. For example, we've talked about Barnes, Gattis, and Taylor, but haven't yet mentioned Marwin Gonzalez, having an out-of-nowhere great season (.308/.391/.576, 158 wRC+) while starting at five spots. Or Jake Marisnick, having a similarly impressive year (.248/.320/.504, 119 wRC+) while adding defensive value in the outfield. Or Enrique Hernandez, who exists to crush lefties (.250/.344/.607, 144 wRC+, against southpaws) while starting at seven spots.Need "veteran presence?" Neither 38-year-old Chase Utley (.226/.326/.390, 95 wRC+) nor 40-year-old Carlos Beltran (.227/.284/.406, 82 wRC+, mostly as Houston's DH) hit anymore like they did in their youth, but both teams swear by them in the clubhouse. Any changes here would be on the fringes; both clubs are so deep. This one is a push. Starting pitchingSo far, none of these calls is all that controversial. Let's go ahead and change that right now, by giving the edge to the Dodgers, despite how talented the Astros' rotation is. That's in large part due to Clayton Kershaw, who remains baseball's best pitcher despite the attempts of others to take the throne. While Dallas Keuchel is a stud and was off to a great start, he's also coming off a poor 2016 and has been out of action with a neck issue for more than a month, so it's hard to argue he's quite there with Kershaw.Beyond their aces, the Dodgers' rotation has a better ERA (3.24 to 3.82), has baseball's second-highest whiff rate (25.4 percent), and has induced the weakest quality contact of anyone. But for both of these teams, it comes down to health. Can you really rely on Wood, Rich Hill and Brandon McCarthy being there in three months? Or Keuchel, Lance McCullers Jr. or Charlie Morton? Or Brad Peacock (who's been great) to last all year in the rotation? One of these teams is going to get a Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray or Marco Estrada -- perhaps both.BullpenDodgers' bullpen dominatesDodgers' bullpen dominatesThe Dodgers' bullpen proves to be clutch, with Kenley Jansen leading the wayAt first glance, this might not seem so close, given that Houston's bullpen has a 4.09 ERA and Los Angeles has a 2.99 mark, the second best in baseball, but we know that ERA is a very imperfect way to measure relievers. Beyond that, we know that the depth relievers you need to get through a season aren't likely to impact the club so much in October, so it may not matter that someone like Sergio Romo has a 6.12 ERA right now. As we've noted before, the Astros' 'pen can be great.Knowing that additions are likely to come, let's take six top Dodgers relievers (Kenley Jansen, Pedro Baez, Brandon Morrow, Luis Avilan, Ross Stripling and Josh Fields) and six top Astros relievers (Ken Giles, Chris Devenski, Peacock, Will Harris, Luke Gregerson and Michael Feliz) and compare what they've done. The six Dodgers have a 2.82 FIP; the six Astros have a 2.90 FIP. The six Dodgers have a .261 xwOBA, which measures quality of contact (exit velocity plus launch angle), along with strikeouts; the six Astros have a .262 xwOBA. Close enough for you?Los Angeles doesn't have a multi-inning weapon like Devenski, but Houston doesn't have a shutdown closer like Jansen. These are both strong units, and neither has a clear edge.So, overall, which team is the best? They're both great, of course, and this could potentially be one of the most interesting World Series matchups in years if we get that far, though you'll note that the 2001 Mariners and the 1969 Cubs did not reach the Fall Classic. But as things stand today, no team is in better position than the Dodgers, who have to be considered the favorites to end what's nearly a three-decade title drought.Mike Petriello is an analyst for MLB.com and the host of the Statcast podcast. He has previously written for ESPN Insider and FanGraphs. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs. 1 by snackdaddy 7 years 3 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #459 TOPIC AUTHOR Well, the injury bug had to happen. Kershaw out 4 to 6 weeks. Fortunately they have a big lead and they're still talented enough to win regular season games without him. But they're not talented enough to get through the post season without him. Maybe this is a blessing in disguise. If he returns in time to pitch a few games in September he should be well rested for October. The only concern would be if his back is worse than originally thought. I don't think he's seen a back specialist yet. You never know with a back injury. by PARAM 7 years 3 months ago Total posts: 12560 Joined: Jul 15 2015 Just far enough North of Philadelphia Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #460 The Dodgers are en fuego!! 42 games over .500 is unreal!! Winning 70% of your games will get you a long way. A 5 game series; 3.5 wins. A 7 game series 4.9 wins. So going into the postseason, they have to be favored no worse than winning the first round in 4 games and the NLCS in 6. The Series? They'll be favored in that too. Obviously, it's a good time to be a Dodger fan. Been following the horns since the Coliseum had a Roman playing there. McVay: 77-49, 2 Superbowls, 1 Lombardi............Doubt at your own peril Reply 46 / 82 1 46 82 Display: All posts1 day7 days2 weeks1 month3 months6 months1 year Sort by: AuthorPost timeSubject Sort by: AscendingDescending Jump to: Forum Rams/NFL Other Sports Rams Fans United Q&A's Board Business 819 posts Nov 21 2024 FOLLOW US @RAMSFANSUNITED Who liked this post
by snackdaddy 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #455 TOPIC AUTHOR 69superbowl liked this post Dodgers still trucking along. Another win streak at 4. I believe they're something like 37-11 since they were sitting at 22-18. Last year the Cubs looked like the stacked team with their combination of hitting and pitching. This year the Dodgers are a top 5 scoring team. Best in the league in team ERA. They appear to be the stacked team. Best record in NL by 5.5 games. Swept both teams that are challenging them for the division and best record. They seem to have what a good team needs. Elite starting pitcher. Elite closer. High scoring offense with power. Solid bullpen. The only thing that concerns me is the starting pitching after Kershaw. When you get in the playoffs runs are harder to come by because pitching is always tougher. You have to have the pitching to match theirs. Wood is having a Kershaw type season. His numbers are actually better than Kershaw's. But he's stepping into new territory for him. He's had his moments before this season but can he sustain it into October? If he can I gotta think the Dodgers will be in the best position they've been in to get to the World Series. So the question remains, what do they do before the trade deadline? I can't see them making any changes by giving up a position player and breaking up a good team chemistry. So their outfield/infield should remain intact. Do they trade prospects for another top end starting pitcher? Or is what they have good enough? I'm of the belief that you can't have enough starters. I wouldn't mind another starter to bolster the depth. Maeda and Hill pitched well the past times they were out there. But they're also capable of putting up some stinkers too. To go with them in the post season as the 3rd and 4th starters is iffy. I would mind another starter and moving Maeda to long relief. All in all I like the Dodgers chances this year. Kershaw is starting to pitch the post season like the regular season. I think he learned some things about the post season over the years. He could easily do what Bumgarner did for SF. All they need is someone else to step up. The Dodgers have been knocking on the door for several years. Its time the knock the damn thing down. 1 by Hacksaw 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 24523 Joined: Apr 15 2015 AT THE BEACH Moderator The Dodgers POST #456 snackdaddy wrote:Kershaw being Kershaw. Most dominant pitcher in the league. If the Dodgers are sitting with a nice division lead in September I'd consider limiting his pitch count. Maybe even skip a start to keep him fresher for the post season. He's so good you know he'll go 7 innings plus most games. I'd worry about a tired arm in October.Good call as long as #2 & #3 can keep up the mo.@snackdaddy, this team has the mojo. I could see us easily advancing in the playoffs after taking the NLW enant GO RAMS !!! GO DODGERS !!! GO LAKERS !!!THE GREATEST SHOW ON TURF,, WAS by snackdaddy 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #457 TOPIC AUTHOR Hacksaw wrote:Good call as long as #2 & #3 can keep up the mo.@snackdaddy, this team has the mojo. I could see us easily advancing in the playoffs after taking the NLW enantDodgers haven been a regular playoff contestant for several years now. They've been knocking on the door. Could this be the year they kick it down? Last year it was clear the Cubs were better. This year the Dodgers are looking like that team. I'd still feel better about their chances if they acquired one more high end starter for the rotation. Dodgers have a good offense but the playoffs are about pitching. Good pitching stops good hitting most the time. by snackdaddy 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #458 TOPIC AUTHOR 69superbowl liked this post This guy says the Dodgers and Astros are in the best position to take home the title. At the end he seems to think the Dodgers are the favorites:http://m.mlb.com/news/article/241739968 ... s-of-2017/By Mike Petriello / MLB.com | @mike_petriello | 12:44 AM ET + 53 COMMENTSIf we can take just a moment to look past Aaron Judge's ongoing home run heroics, there's another potentially historic story brewing in Major League Baseball. The Dodgers (61-29) and the Astros (60-29) are each on pace to win 109 games. This year marks the first time since 1969 that two teams have hit 60 wins by the break.None of this is to say both the Astros and Dodgers will reach 109 wins, of course. As we've noted previously, if you could simply double first-half stats, Alex Wood would go 20-0. (He won't.) But even if both clubs slow down and reach "only" 105 wins, well, only 24 teams have done even that in baseball history. Only once have we ever had two teams do it in the same season, and as noted, the 1998 Yankees and Braves had newly minted expansion teams to feast on. So regardless of whether they end up with 101 or 107 or 109 wins (or more), these are two teams that are not only all but guaranteed to be playing October baseball, but are likely to add even more talent before the July 31 non-waiver Trade Deadline. They're the class of baseball in 2017, led by analytically minded front offices and young, respected managers. But which one is better?Astros' midseason momentsAstros' midseason momentsCarlos Correa and George Springer are key contributors for the Astros in the first half of the 2017 seasonIt's the kind of question many of us would like to see answered on the field in late October. For now, the best we can do is to compare each roster and make some judgment calls. Spoiler: They're both really, really good.(For ease of comparison, we'll use Weighted Runs Created Plus, or wRC+, a park-adjusted hitting stat that sets "100" as league-average. A 120 wRC+, for example, can be read as "20 points above league average.")CatcherDodger catchers Yasmani Grandal and Austin Barnes have combined to hit .272/.343/.489 (121 wRC+). Astros catchers Brian McCann and Evan Gattis have combined to hit .271/.340/.475 (117 wRC+), and that's about as close to being even as you can get. Grandal and Barnes each rate more highly at pitch framing than McCann and Gattis do, but even so, these are two similarly talented backstop duos. We'll call this one a draw. First baseStatcast: Bellinger's two homersStatcast: Bellinger's two homersStatcast measures the exit velocity, launch angle and projected distance of Cody Bellinger's two early homers against Zack WheelerAlthough Cody Bellinger (.261/.342/.619, 145 wRC+) has started more games in the outfield, we'll count him at first, because he's been almost exclusively starting there since Adrian Gonzalez hurt his back, and he'll probably stay there for the foreseeable future since Gonzalez may not return until September, and even then perhaps only as a pinch-hitter. Even if Bellinger doesn't quite maintain this pace, he's got a sizable edge on both sides of the ball over Yuli Gurriel (.297/.321/.491, 115 wRC+). Second baseSome of these are going to be extremely close, and some -- all due respect to Logan Forsythe, who is better than he's shown -- are not. After a poor start to the year, Forsythe (.249/.369/.345, 101 wRC+) has clawed back to league average, and that's something. Of course, Houston doesn't just have baseball's best all-around second baseman in Jose Altuve (.347/.417/.551, 161 wRC+), it also has a superstar who may be one of the game's five best players. It's an easy call here.ShortstopIn the world of extremely talented young shortstops, Carlos Correa (23 in September) and Corey Seager (who turned 23 in April) shine the brightest. Correa (.325/.402/.577, 161 wRC+) is outslugging Seager (.298/.395/.502, 139 wRC+) this year, but Seager was on top last year, and advanced metrics prefer him on defense. Pick either one you like; there's no wrong answer here. Third baseTurner on chances to hit .400Turner on chances to hit .400First-time All-Star Justin Turner talks about the company on the NL team as well as the chances to hit .400 this seasonIf he weren't just a handful of at-bats short of qualifying, Justin Turner (.377/.473/.583, 183 wRC+) would have the second-best line in baseball behind only Judge, and he adds value with the glove as well. Meanwhile, the future remains bright for young Alex Bregman (.256/.338/.419, 104 wRC+) but he hasn't quite put it all together just yet. Left fieldIf we're considering Bellinger a first baseman, we're left with a position that seems very likely to be upgraded by the Deadline for the Dodgers, given that both Andrew Toles and Andre Ethier have had their seasons destroyed by injury. Chris Taylor (.285/.365/.480, 127 wRC+) has been one of baseball's best out-of-nowhere stories, but he has little track record and may function best off the bench (he's started at second, third, short, left and center). That said, Houston's primary left fielder has been Norichika Aoki (.264/.316/.331, 75 wRC+), in the midst of his worst season. Both teams could make moves here.Center fieldStatcast: Springer's 456-ft. HRStatcast: Springer's 456-ft. HRStatcast measures George Springer's 456-ft. home run that left the bat at 107.9 mph and with a launch angle of 25 degreesGeorge Springer (.310/.380/.613, 164 wRC+) complicates this a bit by splitting his time between center and right, but since he's made 52 starts in center as opposed to only 29 in right, we'll keep him here. And like Altuve, he's become one of the game's best players. Joc Pederson (.241/.361/.466, 122 wRC+, with some questionable defensive metrics) has been more "good" than "great," and while he's not the only face you'll see out here, we'll get back to that in the "Bench" section. Right fieldWith Springer in center, former Dodger Josh Reddick is in right, and his first half (.313/.365/.515, 134 wRC+) puts him on track for the best season of his career. (He's hit like Anthony Rizzo and Miguel Sano so far this year.) Yasiel Puig (.251/.324/.453, 104 wRC+), who was briefly demoted to the Minors last year when Reddick arrived in Los Angeles, remains a valuable defender, but as a league-average hitter, his overall value is limited.BenchGonzalez's two-run homerGonzalez's two-run homerMarwin Gonzalez hammers a two-run home run to right field to give the Astros a 4-3 lead in the bottom of the 4th inningPerhaps more than any other teams in the game, these rosters are built around depth. While both have stars, both clubs could survive without them, because there's just so much talent here. For example, we've talked about Barnes, Gattis, and Taylor, but haven't yet mentioned Marwin Gonzalez, having an out-of-nowhere great season (.308/.391/.576, 158 wRC+) while starting at five spots. Or Jake Marisnick, having a similarly impressive year (.248/.320/.504, 119 wRC+) while adding defensive value in the outfield. Or Enrique Hernandez, who exists to crush lefties (.250/.344/.607, 144 wRC+, against southpaws) while starting at seven spots.Need "veteran presence?" Neither 38-year-old Chase Utley (.226/.326/.390, 95 wRC+) nor 40-year-old Carlos Beltran (.227/.284/.406, 82 wRC+, mostly as Houston's DH) hit anymore like they did in their youth, but both teams swear by them in the clubhouse. Any changes here would be on the fringes; both clubs are so deep. This one is a push. Starting pitchingSo far, none of these calls is all that controversial. Let's go ahead and change that right now, by giving the edge to the Dodgers, despite how talented the Astros' rotation is. That's in large part due to Clayton Kershaw, who remains baseball's best pitcher despite the attempts of others to take the throne. While Dallas Keuchel is a stud and was off to a great start, he's also coming off a poor 2016 and has been out of action with a neck issue for more than a month, so it's hard to argue he's quite there with Kershaw.Beyond their aces, the Dodgers' rotation has a better ERA (3.24 to 3.82), has baseball's second-highest whiff rate (25.4 percent), and has induced the weakest quality contact of anyone. But for both of these teams, it comes down to health. Can you really rely on Wood, Rich Hill and Brandon McCarthy being there in three months? Or Keuchel, Lance McCullers Jr. or Charlie Morton? Or Brad Peacock (who's been great) to last all year in the rotation? One of these teams is going to get a Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray or Marco Estrada -- perhaps both.BullpenDodgers' bullpen dominatesDodgers' bullpen dominatesThe Dodgers' bullpen proves to be clutch, with Kenley Jansen leading the wayAt first glance, this might not seem so close, given that Houston's bullpen has a 4.09 ERA and Los Angeles has a 2.99 mark, the second best in baseball, but we know that ERA is a very imperfect way to measure relievers. Beyond that, we know that the depth relievers you need to get through a season aren't likely to impact the club so much in October, so it may not matter that someone like Sergio Romo has a 6.12 ERA right now. As we've noted before, the Astros' 'pen can be great.Knowing that additions are likely to come, let's take six top Dodgers relievers (Kenley Jansen, Pedro Baez, Brandon Morrow, Luis Avilan, Ross Stripling and Josh Fields) and six top Astros relievers (Ken Giles, Chris Devenski, Peacock, Will Harris, Luke Gregerson and Michael Feliz) and compare what they've done. The six Dodgers have a 2.82 FIP; the six Astros have a 2.90 FIP. The six Dodgers have a .261 xwOBA, which measures quality of contact (exit velocity plus launch angle), along with strikeouts; the six Astros have a .262 xwOBA. Close enough for you?Los Angeles doesn't have a multi-inning weapon like Devenski, but Houston doesn't have a shutdown closer like Jansen. These are both strong units, and neither has a clear edge.So, overall, which team is the best? They're both great, of course, and this could potentially be one of the most interesting World Series matchups in years if we get that far, though you'll note that the 2001 Mariners and the 1969 Cubs did not reach the Fall Classic. But as things stand today, no team is in better position than the Dodgers, who have to be considered the favorites to end what's nearly a three-decade title drought.Mike Petriello is an analyst for MLB.com and the host of the Statcast podcast. He has previously written for ESPN Insider and FanGraphs. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs. 1 by snackdaddy 7 years 3 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #459 TOPIC AUTHOR Well, the injury bug had to happen. Kershaw out 4 to 6 weeks. Fortunately they have a big lead and they're still talented enough to win regular season games without him. But they're not talented enough to get through the post season without him. Maybe this is a blessing in disguise. If he returns in time to pitch a few games in September he should be well rested for October. The only concern would be if his back is worse than originally thought. I don't think he's seen a back specialist yet. You never know with a back injury. by PARAM 7 years 3 months ago Total posts: 12560 Joined: Jul 15 2015 Just far enough North of Philadelphia Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #460 The Dodgers are en fuego!! 42 games over .500 is unreal!! Winning 70% of your games will get you a long way. A 5 game series; 3.5 wins. A 7 game series 4.9 wins. So going into the postseason, they have to be favored no worse than winning the first round in 4 games and the NLCS in 6. The Series? They'll be favored in that too. Obviously, it's a good time to be a Dodger fan. Been following the horns since the Coliseum had a Roman playing there. McVay: 77-49, 2 Superbowls, 1 Lombardi............Doubt at your own peril Reply 46 / 82 1 46 82 Display: All posts1 day7 days2 weeks1 month3 months6 months1 year Sort by: AuthorPost timeSubject Sort by: AscendingDescending Jump to: Forum Rams/NFL Other Sports Rams Fans United Q&A's Board Business 819 posts Nov 21 2024
by Hacksaw 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 24523 Joined: Apr 15 2015 AT THE BEACH Moderator The Dodgers POST #456 snackdaddy wrote:Kershaw being Kershaw. Most dominant pitcher in the league. If the Dodgers are sitting with a nice division lead in September I'd consider limiting his pitch count. Maybe even skip a start to keep him fresher for the post season. He's so good you know he'll go 7 innings plus most games. I'd worry about a tired arm in October.Good call as long as #2 & #3 can keep up the mo.@snackdaddy, this team has the mojo. I could see us easily advancing in the playoffs after taking the NLW enant GO RAMS !!! GO DODGERS !!! GO LAKERS !!!THE GREATEST SHOW ON TURF,, WAS by snackdaddy 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #457 TOPIC AUTHOR Hacksaw wrote:Good call as long as #2 & #3 can keep up the mo.@snackdaddy, this team has the mojo. I could see us easily advancing in the playoffs after taking the NLW enantDodgers haven been a regular playoff contestant for several years now. They've been knocking on the door. Could this be the year they kick it down? Last year it was clear the Cubs were better. This year the Dodgers are looking like that team. I'd still feel better about their chances if they acquired one more high end starter for the rotation. Dodgers have a good offense but the playoffs are about pitching. Good pitching stops good hitting most the time. by snackdaddy 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #458 TOPIC AUTHOR 69superbowl liked this post This guy says the Dodgers and Astros are in the best position to take home the title. At the end he seems to think the Dodgers are the favorites:http://m.mlb.com/news/article/241739968 ... s-of-2017/By Mike Petriello / MLB.com | @mike_petriello | 12:44 AM ET + 53 COMMENTSIf we can take just a moment to look past Aaron Judge's ongoing home run heroics, there's another potentially historic story brewing in Major League Baseball. The Dodgers (61-29) and the Astros (60-29) are each on pace to win 109 games. This year marks the first time since 1969 that two teams have hit 60 wins by the break.None of this is to say both the Astros and Dodgers will reach 109 wins, of course. As we've noted previously, if you could simply double first-half stats, Alex Wood would go 20-0. (He won't.) But even if both clubs slow down and reach "only" 105 wins, well, only 24 teams have done even that in baseball history. Only once have we ever had two teams do it in the same season, and as noted, the 1998 Yankees and Braves had newly minted expansion teams to feast on. So regardless of whether they end up with 101 or 107 or 109 wins (or more), these are two teams that are not only all but guaranteed to be playing October baseball, but are likely to add even more talent before the July 31 non-waiver Trade Deadline. They're the class of baseball in 2017, led by analytically minded front offices and young, respected managers. But which one is better?Astros' midseason momentsAstros' midseason momentsCarlos Correa and George Springer are key contributors for the Astros in the first half of the 2017 seasonIt's the kind of question many of us would like to see answered on the field in late October. For now, the best we can do is to compare each roster and make some judgment calls. Spoiler: They're both really, really good.(For ease of comparison, we'll use Weighted Runs Created Plus, or wRC+, a park-adjusted hitting stat that sets "100" as league-average. A 120 wRC+, for example, can be read as "20 points above league average.")CatcherDodger catchers Yasmani Grandal and Austin Barnes have combined to hit .272/.343/.489 (121 wRC+). Astros catchers Brian McCann and Evan Gattis have combined to hit .271/.340/.475 (117 wRC+), and that's about as close to being even as you can get. Grandal and Barnes each rate more highly at pitch framing than McCann and Gattis do, but even so, these are two similarly talented backstop duos. We'll call this one a draw. First baseStatcast: Bellinger's two homersStatcast: Bellinger's two homersStatcast measures the exit velocity, launch angle and projected distance of Cody Bellinger's two early homers against Zack WheelerAlthough Cody Bellinger (.261/.342/.619, 145 wRC+) has started more games in the outfield, we'll count him at first, because he's been almost exclusively starting there since Adrian Gonzalez hurt his back, and he'll probably stay there for the foreseeable future since Gonzalez may not return until September, and even then perhaps only as a pinch-hitter. Even if Bellinger doesn't quite maintain this pace, he's got a sizable edge on both sides of the ball over Yuli Gurriel (.297/.321/.491, 115 wRC+). Second baseSome of these are going to be extremely close, and some -- all due respect to Logan Forsythe, who is better than he's shown -- are not. After a poor start to the year, Forsythe (.249/.369/.345, 101 wRC+) has clawed back to league average, and that's something. Of course, Houston doesn't just have baseball's best all-around second baseman in Jose Altuve (.347/.417/.551, 161 wRC+), it also has a superstar who may be one of the game's five best players. It's an easy call here.ShortstopIn the world of extremely talented young shortstops, Carlos Correa (23 in September) and Corey Seager (who turned 23 in April) shine the brightest. Correa (.325/.402/.577, 161 wRC+) is outslugging Seager (.298/.395/.502, 139 wRC+) this year, but Seager was on top last year, and advanced metrics prefer him on defense. Pick either one you like; there's no wrong answer here. Third baseTurner on chances to hit .400Turner on chances to hit .400First-time All-Star Justin Turner talks about the company on the NL team as well as the chances to hit .400 this seasonIf he weren't just a handful of at-bats short of qualifying, Justin Turner (.377/.473/.583, 183 wRC+) would have the second-best line in baseball behind only Judge, and he adds value with the glove as well. Meanwhile, the future remains bright for young Alex Bregman (.256/.338/.419, 104 wRC+) but he hasn't quite put it all together just yet. Left fieldIf we're considering Bellinger a first baseman, we're left with a position that seems very likely to be upgraded by the Deadline for the Dodgers, given that both Andrew Toles and Andre Ethier have had their seasons destroyed by injury. Chris Taylor (.285/.365/.480, 127 wRC+) has been one of baseball's best out-of-nowhere stories, but he has little track record and may function best off the bench (he's started at second, third, short, left and center). That said, Houston's primary left fielder has been Norichika Aoki (.264/.316/.331, 75 wRC+), in the midst of his worst season. Both teams could make moves here.Center fieldStatcast: Springer's 456-ft. HRStatcast: Springer's 456-ft. HRStatcast measures George Springer's 456-ft. home run that left the bat at 107.9 mph and with a launch angle of 25 degreesGeorge Springer (.310/.380/.613, 164 wRC+) complicates this a bit by splitting his time between center and right, but since he's made 52 starts in center as opposed to only 29 in right, we'll keep him here. And like Altuve, he's become one of the game's best players. Joc Pederson (.241/.361/.466, 122 wRC+, with some questionable defensive metrics) has been more "good" than "great," and while he's not the only face you'll see out here, we'll get back to that in the "Bench" section. Right fieldWith Springer in center, former Dodger Josh Reddick is in right, and his first half (.313/.365/.515, 134 wRC+) puts him on track for the best season of his career. (He's hit like Anthony Rizzo and Miguel Sano so far this year.) Yasiel Puig (.251/.324/.453, 104 wRC+), who was briefly demoted to the Minors last year when Reddick arrived in Los Angeles, remains a valuable defender, but as a league-average hitter, his overall value is limited.BenchGonzalez's two-run homerGonzalez's two-run homerMarwin Gonzalez hammers a two-run home run to right field to give the Astros a 4-3 lead in the bottom of the 4th inningPerhaps more than any other teams in the game, these rosters are built around depth. While both have stars, both clubs could survive without them, because there's just so much talent here. For example, we've talked about Barnes, Gattis, and Taylor, but haven't yet mentioned Marwin Gonzalez, having an out-of-nowhere great season (.308/.391/.576, 158 wRC+) while starting at five spots. Or Jake Marisnick, having a similarly impressive year (.248/.320/.504, 119 wRC+) while adding defensive value in the outfield. Or Enrique Hernandez, who exists to crush lefties (.250/.344/.607, 144 wRC+, against southpaws) while starting at seven spots.Need "veteran presence?" Neither 38-year-old Chase Utley (.226/.326/.390, 95 wRC+) nor 40-year-old Carlos Beltran (.227/.284/.406, 82 wRC+, mostly as Houston's DH) hit anymore like they did in their youth, but both teams swear by them in the clubhouse. Any changes here would be on the fringes; both clubs are so deep. This one is a push. Starting pitchingSo far, none of these calls is all that controversial. Let's go ahead and change that right now, by giving the edge to the Dodgers, despite how talented the Astros' rotation is. That's in large part due to Clayton Kershaw, who remains baseball's best pitcher despite the attempts of others to take the throne. While Dallas Keuchel is a stud and was off to a great start, he's also coming off a poor 2016 and has been out of action with a neck issue for more than a month, so it's hard to argue he's quite there with Kershaw.Beyond their aces, the Dodgers' rotation has a better ERA (3.24 to 3.82), has baseball's second-highest whiff rate (25.4 percent), and has induced the weakest quality contact of anyone. But for both of these teams, it comes down to health. Can you really rely on Wood, Rich Hill and Brandon McCarthy being there in three months? Or Keuchel, Lance McCullers Jr. or Charlie Morton? Or Brad Peacock (who's been great) to last all year in the rotation? One of these teams is going to get a Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray or Marco Estrada -- perhaps both.BullpenDodgers' bullpen dominatesDodgers' bullpen dominatesThe Dodgers' bullpen proves to be clutch, with Kenley Jansen leading the wayAt first glance, this might not seem so close, given that Houston's bullpen has a 4.09 ERA and Los Angeles has a 2.99 mark, the second best in baseball, but we know that ERA is a very imperfect way to measure relievers. Beyond that, we know that the depth relievers you need to get through a season aren't likely to impact the club so much in October, so it may not matter that someone like Sergio Romo has a 6.12 ERA right now. As we've noted before, the Astros' 'pen can be great.Knowing that additions are likely to come, let's take six top Dodgers relievers (Kenley Jansen, Pedro Baez, Brandon Morrow, Luis Avilan, Ross Stripling and Josh Fields) and six top Astros relievers (Ken Giles, Chris Devenski, Peacock, Will Harris, Luke Gregerson and Michael Feliz) and compare what they've done. The six Dodgers have a 2.82 FIP; the six Astros have a 2.90 FIP. The six Dodgers have a .261 xwOBA, which measures quality of contact (exit velocity plus launch angle), along with strikeouts; the six Astros have a .262 xwOBA. Close enough for you?Los Angeles doesn't have a multi-inning weapon like Devenski, but Houston doesn't have a shutdown closer like Jansen. These are both strong units, and neither has a clear edge.So, overall, which team is the best? They're both great, of course, and this could potentially be one of the most interesting World Series matchups in years if we get that far, though you'll note that the 2001 Mariners and the 1969 Cubs did not reach the Fall Classic. But as things stand today, no team is in better position than the Dodgers, who have to be considered the favorites to end what's nearly a three-decade title drought.Mike Petriello is an analyst for MLB.com and the host of the Statcast podcast. He has previously written for ESPN Insider and FanGraphs. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs. 1 by snackdaddy 7 years 3 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #459 TOPIC AUTHOR Well, the injury bug had to happen. Kershaw out 4 to 6 weeks. Fortunately they have a big lead and they're still talented enough to win regular season games without him. But they're not talented enough to get through the post season without him. Maybe this is a blessing in disguise. If he returns in time to pitch a few games in September he should be well rested for October. The only concern would be if his back is worse than originally thought. I don't think he's seen a back specialist yet. You never know with a back injury. by PARAM 7 years 3 months ago Total posts: 12560 Joined: Jul 15 2015 Just far enough North of Philadelphia Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #460 The Dodgers are en fuego!! 42 games over .500 is unreal!! Winning 70% of your games will get you a long way. A 5 game series; 3.5 wins. A 7 game series 4.9 wins. So going into the postseason, they have to be favored no worse than winning the first round in 4 games and the NLCS in 6. The Series? They'll be favored in that too. Obviously, it's a good time to be a Dodger fan. Been following the horns since the Coliseum had a Roman playing there. McVay: 77-49, 2 Superbowls, 1 Lombardi............Doubt at your own peril Reply 46 / 82 1 46 82 Display: All posts1 day7 days2 weeks1 month3 months6 months1 year Sort by: AuthorPost timeSubject Sort by: AscendingDescending Jump to: Forum Rams/NFL Other Sports Rams Fans United Q&A's Board Business 819 posts Nov 21 2024
by snackdaddy 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #457 TOPIC AUTHOR Hacksaw wrote:Good call as long as #2 & #3 can keep up the mo.@snackdaddy, this team has the mojo. I could see us easily advancing in the playoffs after taking the NLW enantDodgers haven been a regular playoff contestant for several years now. They've been knocking on the door. Could this be the year they kick it down? Last year it was clear the Cubs were better. This year the Dodgers are looking like that team. I'd still feel better about their chances if they acquired one more high end starter for the rotation. Dodgers have a good offense but the playoffs are about pitching. Good pitching stops good hitting most the time. by snackdaddy 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #458 TOPIC AUTHOR 69superbowl liked this post This guy says the Dodgers and Astros are in the best position to take home the title. At the end he seems to think the Dodgers are the favorites:http://m.mlb.com/news/article/241739968 ... s-of-2017/By Mike Petriello / MLB.com | @mike_petriello | 12:44 AM ET + 53 COMMENTSIf we can take just a moment to look past Aaron Judge's ongoing home run heroics, there's another potentially historic story brewing in Major League Baseball. The Dodgers (61-29) and the Astros (60-29) are each on pace to win 109 games. This year marks the first time since 1969 that two teams have hit 60 wins by the break.None of this is to say both the Astros and Dodgers will reach 109 wins, of course. As we've noted previously, if you could simply double first-half stats, Alex Wood would go 20-0. (He won't.) But even if both clubs slow down and reach "only" 105 wins, well, only 24 teams have done even that in baseball history. Only once have we ever had two teams do it in the same season, and as noted, the 1998 Yankees and Braves had newly minted expansion teams to feast on. So regardless of whether they end up with 101 or 107 or 109 wins (or more), these are two teams that are not only all but guaranteed to be playing October baseball, but are likely to add even more talent before the July 31 non-waiver Trade Deadline. They're the class of baseball in 2017, led by analytically minded front offices and young, respected managers. But which one is better?Astros' midseason momentsAstros' midseason momentsCarlos Correa and George Springer are key contributors for the Astros in the first half of the 2017 seasonIt's the kind of question many of us would like to see answered on the field in late October. For now, the best we can do is to compare each roster and make some judgment calls. Spoiler: They're both really, really good.(For ease of comparison, we'll use Weighted Runs Created Plus, or wRC+, a park-adjusted hitting stat that sets "100" as league-average. A 120 wRC+, for example, can be read as "20 points above league average.")CatcherDodger catchers Yasmani Grandal and Austin Barnes have combined to hit .272/.343/.489 (121 wRC+). Astros catchers Brian McCann and Evan Gattis have combined to hit .271/.340/.475 (117 wRC+), and that's about as close to being even as you can get. Grandal and Barnes each rate more highly at pitch framing than McCann and Gattis do, but even so, these are two similarly talented backstop duos. We'll call this one a draw. First baseStatcast: Bellinger's two homersStatcast: Bellinger's two homersStatcast measures the exit velocity, launch angle and projected distance of Cody Bellinger's two early homers against Zack WheelerAlthough Cody Bellinger (.261/.342/.619, 145 wRC+) has started more games in the outfield, we'll count him at first, because he's been almost exclusively starting there since Adrian Gonzalez hurt his back, and he'll probably stay there for the foreseeable future since Gonzalez may not return until September, and even then perhaps only as a pinch-hitter. Even if Bellinger doesn't quite maintain this pace, he's got a sizable edge on both sides of the ball over Yuli Gurriel (.297/.321/.491, 115 wRC+). Second baseSome of these are going to be extremely close, and some -- all due respect to Logan Forsythe, who is better than he's shown -- are not. After a poor start to the year, Forsythe (.249/.369/.345, 101 wRC+) has clawed back to league average, and that's something. Of course, Houston doesn't just have baseball's best all-around second baseman in Jose Altuve (.347/.417/.551, 161 wRC+), it also has a superstar who may be one of the game's five best players. It's an easy call here.ShortstopIn the world of extremely talented young shortstops, Carlos Correa (23 in September) and Corey Seager (who turned 23 in April) shine the brightest. Correa (.325/.402/.577, 161 wRC+) is outslugging Seager (.298/.395/.502, 139 wRC+) this year, but Seager was on top last year, and advanced metrics prefer him on defense. Pick either one you like; there's no wrong answer here. Third baseTurner on chances to hit .400Turner on chances to hit .400First-time All-Star Justin Turner talks about the company on the NL team as well as the chances to hit .400 this seasonIf he weren't just a handful of at-bats short of qualifying, Justin Turner (.377/.473/.583, 183 wRC+) would have the second-best line in baseball behind only Judge, and he adds value with the glove as well. Meanwhile, the future remains bright for young Alex Bregman (.256/.338/.419, 104 wRC+) but he hasn't quite put it all together just yet. Left fieldIf we're considering Bellinger a first baseman, we're left with a position that seems very likely to be upgraded by the Deadline for the Dodgers, given that both Andrew Toles and Andre Ethier have had their seasons destroyed by injury. Chris Taylor (.285/.365/.480, 127 wRC+) has been one of baseball's best out-of-nowhere stories, but he has little track record and may function best off the bench (he's started at second, third, short, left and center). That said, Houston's primary left fielder has been Norichika Aoki (.264/.316/.331, 75 wRC+), in the midst of his worst season. Both teams could make moves here.Center fieldStatcast: Springer's 456-ft. HRStatcast: Springer's 456-ft. HRStatcast measures George Springer's 456-ft. home run that left the bat at 107.9 mph and with a launch angle of 25 degreesGeorge Springer (.310/.380/.613, 164 wRC+) complicates this a bit by splitting his time between center and right, but since he's made 52 starts in center as opposed to only 29 in right, we'll keep him here. And like Altuve, he's become one of the game's best players. Joc Pederson (.241/.361/.466, 122 wRC+, with some questionable defensive metrics) has been more "good" than "great," and while he's not the only face you'll see out here, we'll get back to that in the "Bench" section. Right fieldWith Springer in center, former Dodger Josh Reddick is in right, and his first half (.313/.365/.515, 134 wRC+) puts him on track for the best season of his career. (He's hit like Anthony Rizzo and Miguel Sano so far this year.) Yasiel Puig (.251/.324/.453, 104 wRC+), who was briefly demoted to the Minors last year when Reddick arrived in Los Angeles, remains a valuable defender, but as a league-average hitter, his overall value is limited.BenchGonzalez's two-run homerGonzalez's two-run homerMarwin Gonzalez hammers a two-run home run to right field to give the Astros a 4-3 lead in the bottom of the 4th inningPerhaps more than any other teams in the game, these rosters are built around depth. While both have stars, both clubs could survive without them, because there's just so much talent here. For example, we've talked about Barnes, Gattis, and Taylor, but haven't yet mentioned Marwin Gonzalez, having an out-of-nowhere great season (.308/.391/.576, 158 wRC+) while starting at five spots. Or Jake Marisnick, having a similarly impressive year (.248/.320/.504, 119 wRC+) while adding defensive value in the outfield. Or Enrique Hernandez, who exists to crush lefties (.250/.344/.607, 144 wRC+, against southpaws) while starting at seven spots.Need "veteran presence?" Neither 38-year-old Chase Utley (.226/.326/.390, 95 wRC+) nor 40-year-old Carlos Beltran (.227/.284/.406, 82 wRC+, mostly as Houston's DH) hit anymore like they did in their youth, but both teams swear by them in the clubhouse. Any changes here would be on the fringes; both clubs are so deep. This one is a push. Starting pitchingSo far, none of these calls is all that controversial. Let's go ahead and change that right now, by giving the edge to the Dodgers, despite how talented the Astros' rotation is. That's in large part due to Clayton Kershaw, who remains baseball's best pitcher despite the attempts of others to take the throne. While Dallas Keuchel is a stud and was off to a great start, he's also coming off a poor 2016 and has been out of action with a neck issue for more than a month, so it's hard to argue he's quite there with Kershaw.Beyond their aces, the Dodgers' rotation has a better ERA (3.24 to 3.82), has baseball's second-highest whiff rate (25.4 percent), and has induced the weakest quality contact of anyone. But for both of these teams, it comes down to health. Can you really rely on Wood, Rich Hill and Brandon McCarthy being there in three months? Or Keuchel, Lance McCullers Jr. or Charlie Morton? Or Brad Peacock (who's been great) to last all year in the rotation? One of these teams is going to get a Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray or Marco Estrada -- perhaps both.BullpenDodgers' bullpen dominatesDodgers' bullpen dominatesThe Dodgers' bullpen proves to be clutch, with Kenley Jansen leading the wayAt first glance, this might not seem so close, given that Houston's bullpen has a 4.09 ERA and Los Angeles has a 2.99 mark, the second best in baseball, but we know that ERA is a very imperfect way to measure relievers. Beyond that, we know that the depth relievers you need to get through a season aren't likely to impact the club so much in October, so it may not matter that someone like Sergio Romo has a 6.12 ERA right now. As we've noted before, the Astros' 'pen can be great.Knowing that additions are likely to come, let's take six top Dodgers relievers (Kenley Jansen, Pedro Baez, Brandon Morrow, Luis Avilan, Ross Stripling and Josh Fields) and six top Astros relievers (Ken Giles, Chris Devenski, Peacock, Will Harris, Luke Gregerson and Michael Feliz) and compare what they've done. The six Dodgers have a 2.82 FIP; the six Astros have a 2.90 FIP. The six Dodgers have a .261 xwOBA, which measures quality of contact (exit velocity plus launch angle), along with strikeouts; the six Astros have a .262 xwOBA. Close enough for you?Los Angeles doesn't have a multi-inning weapon like Devenski, but Houston doesn't have a shutdown closer like Jansen. These are both strong units, and neither has a clear edge.So, overall, which team is the best? They're both great, of course, and this could potentially be one of the most interesting World Series matchups in years if we get that far, though you'll note that the 2001 Mariners and the 1969 Cubs did not reach the Fall Classic. But as things stand today, no team is in better position than the Dodgers, who have to be considered the favorites to end what's nearly a three-decade title drought.Mike Petriello is an analyst for MLB.com and the host of the Statcast podcast. He has previously written for ESPN Insider and FanGraphs. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs. 1 by snackdaddy 7 years 3 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #459 TOPIC AUTHOR Well, the injury bug had to happen. Kershaw out 4 to 6 weeks. Fortunately they have a big lead and they're still talented enough to win regular season games without him. But they're not talented enough to get through the post season without him. Maybe this is a blessing in disguise. If he returns in time to pitch a few games in September he should be well rested for October. The only concern would be if his back is worse than originally thought. I don't think he's seen a back specialist yet. You never know with a back injury. by PARAM 7 years 3 months ago Total posts: 12560 Joined: Jul 15 2015 Just far enough North of Philadelphia Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #460 The Dodgers are en fuego!! 42 games over .500 is unreal!! Winning 70% of your games will get you a long way. A 5 game series; 3.5 wins. A 7 game series 4.9 wins. So going into the postseason, they have to be favored no worse than winning the first round in 4 games and the NLCS in 6. The Series? They'll be favored in that too. Obviously, it's a good time to be a Dodger fan. Been following the horns since the Coliseum had a Roman playing there. McVay: 77-49, 2 Superbowls, 1 Lombardi............Doubt at your own peril Reply 46 / 82 1 46 82 Display: All posts1 day7 days2 weeks1 month3 months6 months1 year Sort by: AuthorPost timeSubject Sort by: AscendingDescending Jump to: Forum Rams/NFL Other Sports Rams Fans United Q&A's Board Business 819 posts Nov 21 2024
by snackdaddy 7 years 4 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #458 TOPIC AUTHOR 69superbowl liked this post This guy says the Dodgers and Astros are in the best position to take home the title. At the end he seems to think the Dodgers are the favorites:http://m.mlb.com/news/article/241739968 ... s-of-2017/By Mike Petriello / MLB.com | @mike_petriello | 12:44 AM ET + 53 COMMENTSIf we can take just a moment to look past Aaron Judge's ongoing home run heroics, there's another potentially historic story brewing in Major League Baseball. The Dodgers (61-29) and the Astros (60-29) are each on pace to win 109 games. This year marks the first time since 1969 that two teams have hit 60 wins by the break.None of this is to say both the Astros and Dodgers will reach 109 wins, of course. As we've noted previously, if you could simply double first-half stats, Alex Wood would go 20-0. (He won't.) But even if both clubs slow down and reach "only" 105 wins, well, only 24 teams have done even that in baseball history. Only once have we ever had two teams do it in the same season, and as noted, the 1998 Yankees and Braves had newly minted expansion teams to feast on. So regardless of whether they end up with 101 or 107 or 109 wins (or more), these are two teams that are not only all but guaranteed to be playing October baseball, but are likely to add even more talent before the July 31 non-waiver Trade Deadline. They're the class of baseball in 2017, led by analytically minded front offices and young, respected managers. But which one is better?Astros' midseason momentsAstros' midseason momentsCarlos Correa and George Springer are key contributors for the Astros in the first half of the 2017 seasonIt's the kind of question many of us would like to see answered on the field in late October. For now, the best we can do is to compare each roster and make some judgment calls. Spoiler: They're both really, really good.(For ease of comparison, we'll use Weighted Runs Created Plus, or wRC+, a park-adjusted hitting stat that sets "100" as league-average. A 120 wRC+, for example, can be read as "20 points above league average.")CatcherDodger catchers Yasmani Grandal and Austin Barnes have combined to hit .272/.343/.489 (121 wRC+). Astros catchers Brian McCann and Evan Gattis have combined to hit .271/.340/.475 (117 wRC+), and that's about as close to being even as you can get. Grandal and Barnes each rate more highly at pitch framing than McCann and Gattis do, but even so, these are two similarly talented backstop duos. We'll call this one a draw. First baseStatcast: Bellinger's two homersStatcast: Bellinger's two homersStatcast measures the exit velocity, launch angle and projected distance of Cody Bellinger's two early homers against Zack WheelerAlthough Cody Bellinger (.261/.342/.619, 145 wRC+) has started more games in the outfield, we'll count him at first, because he's been almost exclusively starting there since Adrian Gonzalez hurt his back, and he'll probably stay there for the foreseeable future since Gonzalez may not return until September, and even then perhaps only as a pinch-hitter. Even if Bellinger doesn't quite maintain this pace, he's got a sizable edge on both sides of the ball over Yuli Gurriel (.297/.321/.491, 115 wRC+). Second baseSome of these are going to be extremely close, and some -- all due respect to Logan Forsythe, who is better than he's shown -- are not. After a poor start to the year, Forsythe (.249/.369/.345, 101 wRC+) has clawed back to league average, and that's something. Of course, Houston doesn't just have baseball's best all-around second baseman in Jose Altuve (.347/.417/.551, 161 wRC+), it also has a superstar who may be one of the game's five best players. It's an easy call here.ShortstopIn the world of extremely talented young shortstops, Carlos Correa (23 in September) and Corey Seager (who turned 23 in April) shine the brightest. Correa (.325/.402/.577, 161 wRC+) is outslugging Seager (.298/.395/.502, 139 wRC+) this year, but Seager was on top last year, and advanced metrics prefer him on defense. Pick either one you like; there's no wrong answer here. Third baseTurner on chances to hit .400Turner on chances to hit .400First-time All-Star Justin Turner talks about the company on the NL team as well as the chances to hit .400 this seasonIf he weren't just a handful of at-bats short of qualifying, Justin Turner (.377/.473/.583, 183 wRC+) would have the second-best line in baseball behind only Judge, and he adds value with the glove as well. Meanwhile, the future remains bright for young Alex Bregman (.256/.338/.419, 104 wRC+) but he hasn't quite put it all together just yet. Left fieldIf we're considering Bellinger a first baseman, we're left with a position that seems very likely to be upgraded by the Deadline for the Dodgers, given that both Andrew Toles and Andre Ethier have had their seasons destroyed by injury. Chris Taylor (.285/.365/.480, 127 wRC+) has been one of baseball's best out-of-nowhere stories, but he has little track record and may function best off the bench (he's started at second, third, short, left and center). That said, Houston's primary left fielder has been Norichika Aoki (.264/.316/.331, 75 wRC+), in the midst of his worst season. Both teams could make moves here.Center fieldStatcast: Springer's 456-ft. HRStatcast: Springer's 456-ft. HRStatcast measures George Springer's 456-ft. home run that left the bat at 107.9 mph and with a launch angle of 25 degreesGeorge Springer (.310/.380/.613, 164 wRC+) complicates this a bit by splitting his time between center and right, but since he's made 52 starts in center as opposed to only 29 in right, we'll keep him here. And like Altuve, he's become one of the game's best players. Joc Pederson (.241/.361/.466, 122 wRC+, with some questionable defensive metrics) has been more "good" than "great," and while he's not the only face you'll see out here, we'll get back to that in the "Bench" section. Right fieldWith Springer in center, former Dodger Josh Reddick is in right, and his first half (.313/.365/.515, 134 wRC+) puts him on track for the best season of his career. (He's hit like Anthony Rizzo and Miguel Sano so far this year.) Yasiel Puig (.251/.324/.453, 104 wRC+), who was briefly demoted to the Minors last year when Reddick arrived in Los Angeles, remains a valuable defender, but as a league-average hitter, his overall value is limited.BenchGonzalez's two-run homerGonzalez's two-run homerMarwin Gonzalez hammers a two-run home run to right field to give the Astros a 4-3 lead in the bottom of the 4th inningPerhaps more than any other teams in the game, these rosters are built around depth. While both have stars, both clubs could survive without them, because there's just so much talent here. For example, we've talked about Barnes, Gattis, and Taylor, but haven't yet mentioned Marwin Gonzalez, having an out-of-nowhere great season (.308/.391/.576, 158 wRC+) while starting at five spots. Or Jake Marisnick, having a similarly impressive year (.248/.320/.504, 119 wRC+) while adding defensive value in the outfield. Or Enrique Hernandez, who exists to crush lefties (.250/.344/.607, 144 wRC+, against southpaws) while starting at seven spots.Need "veteran presence?" Neither 38-year-old Chase Utley (.226/.326/.390, 95 wRC+) nor 40-year-old Carlos Beltran (.227/.284/.406, 82 wRC+, mostly as Houston's DH) hit anymore like they did in their youth, but both teams swear by them in the clubhouse. Any changes here would be on the fringes; both clubs are so deep. This one is a push. Starting pitchingSo far, none of these calls is all that controversial. Let's go ahead and change that right now, by giving the edge to the Dodgers, despite how talented the Astros' rotation is. That's in large part due to Clayton Kershaw, who remains baseball's best pitcher despite the attempts of others to take the throne. While Dallas Keuchel is a stud and was off to a great start, he's also coming off a poor 2016 and has been out of action with a neck issue for more than a month, so it's hard to argue he's quite there with Kershaw.Beyond their aces, the Dodgers' rotation has a better ERA (3.24 to 3.82), has baseball's second-highest whiff rate (25.4 percent), and has induced the weakest quality contact of anyone. But for both of these teams, it comes down to health. Can you really rely on Wood, Rich Hill and Brandon McCarthy being there in three months? Or Keuchel, Lance McCullers Jr. or Charlie Morton? Or Brad Peacock (who's been great) to last all year in the rotation? One of these teams is going to get a Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray or Marco Estrada -- perhaps both.BullpenDodgers' bullpen dominatesDodgers' bullpen dominatesThe Dodgers' bullpen proves to be clutch, with Kenley Jansen leading the wayAt first glance, this might not seem so close, given that Houston's bullpen has a 4.09 ERA and Los Angeles has a 2.99 mark, the second best in baseball, but we know that ERA is a very imperfect way to measure relievers. Beyond that, we know that the depth relievers you need to get through a season aren't likely to impact the club so much in October, so it may not matter that someone like Sergio Romo has a 6.12 ERA right now. As we've noted before, the Astros' 'pen can be great.Knowing that additions are likely to come, let's take six top Dodgers relievers (Kenley Jansen, Pedro Baez, Brandon Morrow, Luis Avilan, Ross Stripling and Josh Fields) and six top Astros relievers (Ken Giles, Chris Devenski, Peacock, Will Harris, Luke Gregerson and Michael Feliz) and compare what they've done. The six Dodgers have a 2.82 FIP; the six Astros have a 2.90 FIP. The six Dodgers have a .261 xwOBA, which measures quality of contact (exit velocity plus launch angle), along with strikeouts; the six Astros have a .262 xwOBA. Close enough for you?Los Angeles doesn't have a multi-inning weapon like Devenski, but Houston doesn't have a shutdown closer like Jansen. These are both strong units, and neither has a clear edge.So, overall, which team is the best? They're both great, of course, and this could potentially be one of the most interesting World Series matchups in years if we get that far, though you'll note that the 2001 Mariners and the 1969 Cubs did not reach the Fall Classic. But as things stand today, no team is in better position than the Dodgers, who have to be considered the favorites to end what's nearly a three-decade title drought.Mike Petriello is an analyst for MLB.com and the host of the Statcast podcast. He has previously written for ESPN Insider and FanGraphs. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs. 1 by snackdaddy 7 years 3 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #459 TOPIC AUTHOR Well, the injury bug had to happen. Kershaw out 4 to 6 weeks. Fortunately they have a big lead and they're still talented enough to win regular season games without him. But they're not talented enough to get through the post season without him. Maybe this is a blessing in disguise. If he returns in time to pitch a few games in September he should be well rested for October. The only concern would be if his back is worse than originally thought. I don't think he's seen a back specialist yet. You never know with a back injury. by PARAM 7 years 3 months ago Total posts: 12560 Joined: Jul 15 2015 Just far enough North of Philadelphia Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #460 The Dodgers are en fuego!! 42 games over .500 is unreal!! Winning 70% of your games will get you a long way. A 5 game series; 3.5 wins. A 7 game series 4.9 wins. So going into the postseason, they have to be favored no worse than winning the first round in 4 games and the NLCS in 6. The Series? They'll be favored in that too. Obviously, it's a good time to be a Dodger fan. Been following the horns since the Coliseum had a Roman playing there. McVay: 77-49, 2 Superbowls, 1 Lombardi............Doubt at your own peril Reply 46 / 82 1 46 82 Display: All posts1 day7 days2 weeks1 month3 months6 months1 year Sort by: AuthorPost timeSubject Sort by: AscendingDescending Jump to: Forum Rams/NFL Other Sports Rams Fans United Q&A's Board Business 819 posts Nov 21 2024
by snackdaddy 7 years 3 months ago Total posts: 9842 Joined: May 30 2015 Merced California Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #459 TOPIC AUTHOR Well, the injury bug had to happen. Kershaw out 4 to 6 weeks. Fortunately they have a big lead and they're still talented enough to win regular season games without him. But they're not talented enough to get through the post season without him. Maybe this is a blessing in disguise. If he returns in time to pitch a few games in September he should be well rested for October. The only concern would be if his back is worse than originally thought. I don't think he's seen a back specialist yet. You never know with a back injury. by PARAM 7 years 3 months ago Total posts: 12560 Joined: Jul 15 2015 Just far enough North of Philadelphia Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #460 The Dodgers are en fuego!! 42 games over .500 is unreal!! Winning 70% of your games will get you a long way. A 5 game series; 3.5 wins. A 7 game series 4.9 wins. So going into the postseason, they have to be favored no worse than winning the first round in 4 games and the NLCS in 6. The Series? They'll be favored in that too. Obviously, it's a good time to be a Dodger fan. Been following the horns since the Coliseum had a Roman playing there. McVay: 77-49, 2 Superbowls, 1 Lombardi............Doubt at your own peril Reply 46 / 82 1 46 82 Display: All posts1 day7 days2 weeks1 month3 months6 months1 year Sort by: AuthorPost timeSubject Sort by: AscendingDescending Jump to: Forum Rams/NFL Other Sports Rams Fans United Q&A's Board Business 819 posts Nov 21 2024
by PARAM 7 years 3 months ago Total posts: 12560 Joined: Jul 15 2015 Just far enough North of Philadelphia Hall of Fame The Dodgers POST #460 The Dodgers are en fuego!! 42 games over .500 is unreal!! Winning 70% of your games will get you a long way. A 5 game series; 3.5 wins. A 7 game series 4.9 wins. So going into the postseason, they have to be favored no worse than winning the first round in 4 games and the NLCS in 6. The Series? They'll be favored in that too. Obviously, it's a good time to be a Dodger fan. Been following the horns since the Coliseum had a Roman playing there. McVay: 77-49, 2 Superbowls, 1 Lombardi............Doubt at your own peril Reply 46 / 82 1 46 82 Display: All posts1 day7 days2 weeks1 month3 months6 months1 year Sort by: AuthorPost timeSubject Sort by: AscendingDescending Jump to: Forum Rams/NFL Other Sports Rams Fans United Q&A's Board Business