[max]

Two more games until the break, then after the bye, we have our 5 game stretch run to close out the regular season.

We should be either 9-2 or 10-1 at the break, simply based on expected results.

To me, the most important thing is to come out of the break healthy and fresh for those last 5 games. Also getting Talib back is huge, especially for the Eagles game.

I feel very good about the game in Detroit coming off our bye, and pretty good about the game in Chicago especially with Talib back. It’s the game against Philadelphia that worries me a bit. They may be hitting their stride late in the season with Wentz healthier and desperate for wins. We are gonna need Talib for that one for sure. The last 2 games against AZ and Niners will be wins unless McVay doesn’t care.

Tom Landry used to love playing Thanksgiving games back in the 70's. This was way before bye weeks existed. Landry said having the extra days off between Thanksgiving and their last 5 games gave them an edge and allowed him to prepare better for the stretch run.

I think the Rams have that same edge with their bye week coming during Thanksgiving weekend. As a result they have a good shot at winning their last 5 games, and can build momentum towards the playoffs.

In contrast to this, the Saints have had their bye and must play their last 8 games without a break. They have 3 tough division games, 2 against Carolina and 1 against an improving Falcons team. Those teams know each other very well and are usually very physical. Expect the Saints to incur some wounds from them. They also have games against the Steelers and Eagles that will further stress the Saints. And all this without a bye and late in the season when the bumps and bruises take a bigger toll.

In summary, I believe the Rams have a distinct schedule edge over the Saints. It will be extremely difficult for them to stay even with the Rams record. Odds are we finish at least a game ahead of them and secure HFA.

At this point the only person I’ve heard in the media who has said anything remotely indicating the Rams have this distinct advantage is Mike Lombardi. He recognized the how difficult it will be for the Saints to stay even with the Rams and expects the Rams to secure HFA. And let’s face it Lombardi is no Rams homer.

[PARAM]

The Eagles will be fighting for the NFC East down the stretch. They play Dallas, @ N. Orleans, Giants, Redskins, @ Dallas and then the Rams. They ought to be somewhat exhausted by the time they arrive in L.A. They're always a tough draw but I've watched them many times this year and they're not the same defense. They're going to have to keep pace with us to have a chance to win.

I'm interested to see the Seattle game and how we respond. Then if we respond well, the KC game should be a good one. Like you say, 9-2 or 10-1 going into the all important bye. Those two road games, although against inferior competition, will be tough. Then the Eagles. If we're 11-2 or 12-1 coming into that game, we're set. HFA. By then the Saints will be 9-4.

[max]

The Eagles will be fighting for the NFC East down the stretch. They play Dallas, @ N. Orleans, Giants, Redskins, @ Dallas and then the Rams. They ought to be somewhat exhausted by the time they arrive in L.A. They're always a tough draw but I've watched them many times this year and they're not the same defense. They're going to have to keep pace with us to have a chance to win.

I'm interested to see the Seattle game and how we respond. Then if we respond well, the KC game should be a good one. Like you say, 9-2 or 10-1 going into the all important bye. Those two road games, although against inferior competition, will be tough. Then the Eagles. If we're 11-2 or 12-1 coming into that game, we're set. HFA. By then the Saints will be 9-4.

Lombardi thinks the Saints will win 12 games. He said that will be a good result all things considered. I think we win 13 or 14.

[snackdaddy]

I think the schedule favors the Rams but the Saints game was not in our favor. Saints are very good at home and we just happened to play them there. We don't want to go there if we meet them in the playoffs. I think this is good for us. Things came too easy until the loss. Now they're not the team with the target on their backs.

[AvengerRam]

Before the season, I did a schedule evaluation based upon three categories: should win (75%), toss-up (50%) and long-shot (25%) games.

Both the Rams and the Saints are too good at the point to have any "long-shot" games, so here's how I'd rate their remaining schedules:

Rams (8-1)
Should-win: 5 (Seahawks, @Lions, Eagles, @Cardinals, 49ers) 3.75 expected wins
Toss-up: 2 (Chiefs, @Bears): 1.0 expected win
TOTAL EXPECTED WINS: 12.75

Saints (7-1)
Should-win: 6 (@Bengals, Eagles, @Cowboys, Falcons, @Bucs, Panthers) 4.5 expected wins
Toss-up: 2 (@Panthers, Steelers): 1.0 expected win
TOTAL EXPECTED WINS: 12.50

So... I'd say its too close to call.

It looks, though, like there is a good chance that both teams will be playing their starters in week 17.

[max]

Before the season, I did a schedule evaluation based upon three categories: should win (75%), toss-up (50%) and long-shot (25%) games.

Both the Rams and the Saints are too good at the point to have any "long-shot" games, so here's how I'd rate their remaining schedules:

Rams (8-1)
Should-win: 5 (Seahawks, @Lions, Eagles, @Cardinals, 49ers) 3.75 expected wins
Toss-up: 2 (Chiefs, @Bears): 1.0 expected win
TOTAL EXPECTED WINS: 12.75

Saints (7-1)
Should-win: 6 (@Bengals, Eagles, @Cowboys, Falcons, @Bucs, Panthers) 4.5 expected wins
Toss-up: 2 (@Panthers, Steelers): 1.0 expected win
TOTAL EXPECTED WINS: 12.50

So... I'd say its too close to call.

It looks, though, like there is a good chance that both teams will be playing their starters in week 17.

I see a couple of flaws in your approach.

There is a big difference between a should win against a team like the Cards or Niners and a should win against a team like the Falcons. Having them both the same (at 25%) is not accurate at all.

Also, I don't believe the Saints have a 37.5% chance of sweeping the Panthers and that's what you're saying when you factor both games at 75% and 50%. I think it's very likely that they split their 2 games.

[AvengerRam]

I see a couple of flaws in your approach.

Only a couple?

There is a big difference between a should win against a team like the Cards or Niners and a should win against a team like the Falcons. Having them both the same (at 25%) is not accurate at all.

My system is designed to aggregate. So, yes... I'd give the Rams more than a 75% chance of beating, say, the Cardinals. However, in the long run, teams occasionally lose games they should win. I've assigned a 25% likelihood of that happening - certainly one could argue that percentage is too high and that there should be more categories - but I'm just trying to keep it simple.

Also, I don't believe the Saints have a 37.5% chance of sweeping the Panthers and that's what you're saying when you factor both games at 75% and 50%. I think it's very likely that they split their 2 games.

I went back and forth on whether to put Panthers@Saints in the should-win or toss-up category. If you moved it to toss-up, the expected wins for the Saints would still be 12.25. Perhaps the .50 disparity in the Rams' favor is a more realistic outcome (rounded to Rams 13-3, Saints 12-4). I certainly hope it is!

[sloramfan]

just win..

go rams

slo

[PARAM]

I think the schedule favors the Rams but the Saints game was not in our favor. Saints are very good at home and we just happened to play them there. We don't want to go there if we meet them in the playoffs. I think this is good for us. Things came too easy until the loss. Now they're not the team with the target on their backs.

Oh they'll be the team with the target on their backs again very soon. But this loss was good, or at least as good as a loss can possibly be. Use whatever clique you wish. A wake up call. A call for adjustments. Circle the wagons. They have now been whipped by a good team and they know they need to refocus and get better. Awesome timing. Seattle, KC and then the bye. Would love to see them sitting at 10-1 with the last 5 to go.

[Hacksaw]

On a side note, I can't believe we're already talking the stretch run. Where did the season go?