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This is from FiveThirtyEight. Pretty interesting too. The link it better.

Good argument on Gurley being the beneficiary, but this begs another question. Is this ALL caused by McVay? How much credit needs to go to Goff for forcing the 6 man boxes? Would Gurley still get that favorable defense with any QB?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to ... ry-twitter

Todd Gurley Is In The Right System At The Right Time
Josh Hermsmeyer2:41 PM
Oct. 19, 2018, at

Todd Gurley is off to one of the hottest starts in NFL history. After rushing for a league-leading 623 yards and nine touchdowns — plus 247 receiving yards and two more TDs through the air — Gurley has accumulated the fifth-most adjusted yards1 from scrimmage through six games since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, joining former Rams greats Marshall Faulk and Eric Dickerson near the top of the list. The Rams are 6-0 on the young season, and Gurley’s breakneck performance is often cited as a catalyst for the team’s success. He has even been in the early discussion for league MVP.

But is that really warranted? Does the Rams offense truly run through Gurley, or should we be giving head coach Sean McVay more of the credit?

One approach to answering that question is to look at how McVay’s scheme affects Gurley’s performance. So far this year, the Rams have run nearly every offensive play from what is called the “11” personnel: one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers. According to charting from Sports Info Solutions, the Rams have run 95 percent of their offensive plays from this package — 32 percentage points more than the league average of 63 percent. And while heavy utilization of three wide receiver looks isn’t new to McVay — the Rams ran 81 percent of their plays out of “11” in 2017 — 2018 is a massive outlier. McVay appears to have concluded that the deception afforded the offense by lining up with the same personnel package each play is greater than the constraints it places on his play calling.

The Rams rarely stray from their favorite formation

NFL teams by the share of their plays run in each of the three most popular offensive formations, 2018

Offensive formation
Team 11: ONE RB, ONE TE, three WRs 12: ONE RB, TWO TEs, TWO WRs 21: Two RBs, one TE, two WRs
L.A. Rams 95% 2% 0%
Green Bay 77 14 1
Miami 77 8 1
Seattle 77 9 5
Indianapolis 72 18 3
Cleveland 70 16 1
Jacksonville 70 10 6
Cincinnati 69 20 2
Washington 69 17 0
Oakland 68 13 7
N.Y. Giants 67 23 4
Tampa Bay 67 14 7
Arizona 66 19 4
Denver 66 13 11
Buffalo 64 20 10
Chicago 64 20 10
Houston 62 34 0
Minnesota 62 23 9
Detroit 61 10 5
Pittsburgh 61 15 7
New Orleans 60 13 12
Carolina 59 14 8
Kansas City 59 22 9
Dallas 57 18 6
Atlanta 56 14 13
L.A. Chargers 56 17 10
Philadelphia 54 36 0
Tennessee 53 35 2
N.Y. Jets 52 24 0
New England 49 9 28
Baltimore 48 26 1
San Francisco 40 8 41
Average 63 17 7
Source: Sports Info Solutions

There are other benefits from repeatedly giving the opponent the same look, however, and they affect Gurley’s performance in important ways. When a team can spread a defense out laterally across the field, it opens up the middle and makes running the ball easier. Running backs with at least 20 carries averaged 4.75 yards per carry against six men in the box from 2016 to 2018.2 That’s well over half a yard higher than the average of 4.09 yards per carry when that same group of runners faced seven defenders near the line of scrimmage. Against eight-man fronts, the average gain falls to 3.59. Facing a loaded box makes running much more difficult.

McVay is no rube. He likely realizes that if you are going to run in the NFL, you should do so against a light box. Even better, this is something he can control. An offense exerts quite a bit of influence over how many box defenders it faces by how many wide receivers it chooses to deploy. When offenses play three wideouts, NFL defensive coordinators will typically match body type with body type and send a nickel defensive back in to cover the third receiver, leaving six defenders in the box.

As a consequence, Gurley has faced more six-man fronts on his carries than any other running back in football since McVay took over as head coach of the Rams. It has paid serious dividends. So far this season, Gurley is crushing it against those fronts, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. But against a neutral seven-man front, he’s been below league average at just 3.7 yards per attempt.

Gurley thrives when there are fewer defenders

Number of carries and yards per carry against a standard defense of six men in the box, 2017-18

Player No. of carries yards per carry
Todd Gurley 202 5.12
Kareem Hunt 113 4.91
Lamar Miller 112 4.42
LeVeon Bell 103 4.45
Melvin Gordon 101 4.73
Source: Sports Info Solutions

Gurley is basically the same back he has always been since he came into the league. If you use broken and missed tackles as a proxy for talent,3 you can see that Gurley makes defenders miss when running against six-man fronts far less than expected. He thrives, like most running backs, when he’s allowed to hit open holes and get to the second level relatively unscathed.


So Gurley is the beneficiary, not the proximate cause, of the Rams’ offensive resurgence under McVay. Gurley has been put in a position to succeed and has taken full advantage. Crucially, while the Rams have benefited from being smart in their offensive schemes and decision-making, it’s likely that many teams could emulate them and achieve similar success on the ground. Spreading a defense out and running against a light front is not a particularly novel idea. The commitment shown by running 95 percent of your plays out of a formation that encourages that result, however, is quite innovative. McVay pushes winning edges better than any coach in the NFL — and he, not his running back, is the principal reason that the Rams are currently the toast of the league.

Check out our latest NFL predictions.

[Kid Charlamagne]

This seems pretty simple, why are the rams the only ones doing it?

[aeneas1]

good stuff!

i will say that a lot of folks who report on the rams use of 11-personnel act as if the 11 is an offensive alignment, used play after play, as opposed to a personnel package consisting of 1 rb, 1 te and 3 wr... the other assumption seems to be that because the 11 employs 3 wide receivers, it forces defenses to spread themselves thin in the middle, by having to cover multiple receivers split wide.

neither is accurate when describing the rams... in fact i'd like to see a piece that plots the ridiculous number of different alignments the rams get from their 11-personnel scheme... for example, from the 11 the rams will align gurley wide left or right, outside of the numbers, and put a te in the slot, giving the look of a 00 (0 rb, 0 te, 5 wr).

here's an example of what i'm talking about, from 538:

There are other benefits from repeatedly giving the opponent the same look, however, and they affect Gurley’s performance in important ways. When a team can spread a defense out laterally across the field, it opens up the middle and makes running the ball easier.

McVay appears to have concluded that the deception afforded the offense by lining up with the same personnel package each play is greater than the constraints it places on his play calling.

do these two examples look like a defense spread thin because of 11-personnel, by having to cover receivers split wide?

[Rams1PlateSince1976]

We Not Me. Without a tailback like Gurley McVay would be much more challenged in running so much 11..

Also tough to run 11 without good wide-outs.

I expect to see more Tight End action. (It is probably coming. McVay has a lot of play book left.) Also interesting that McVay backed off use of the screen pass lately. He is changing his pattern to confound Defensive coordinators but those screens still remain very much alive in the playbook,

[Extremes]

What should be the real question is where the fuck are our Tight Ends...? We wasted a second round pick on Gerald Everett...

[Rams1PlateSince1976]

Patience. Haven't needed them yet.

[aeneas1]

Patience. Haven't needed them yet.

nope... and, again, mcvay's rep for loving to throw to tight ends was way overblown, reed was a friggin' wr for all intents and purposes... anyway, whatever makes this offense even more potent i'm all in on, altho cutting into woods/cooks/kupp/gurley targets just for the sake of showing that you're involving a tight end doesn't make too much sense to me at the moment, only so many targets to go around.