85 posts
  • 1 / 9
  • 1
  • 9
 by aeneas1
5 years 9 months ago
 Total posts:   16894  
 Joined:  Sep 13 2015
United States of America   Norcal
Hall of Fame

only 1 out of 10 nfl runs gain 10 or more yards, while the other 9 of 10 gain just 2.5 yards on average, in other words nfl backs tend to run into a brick wall most of the time.

but it's the 1 out of 10 runs, the 10% of rush attempts, the runs of 10+ yards, that separates the league rushing leaders from the rest of the pack - without a bunch of 10+ yard runs on the year, you're gonna have a tough time reaching 1,000 rushing yards.

and when it comes to 10+ yards runs, no one booked more in 2017 than todd gurley - these runs accounted for just 13% of his total carries yet a whopping 53% of his total yards.

2016 is pointed to as a down year for gurley, a sophomore slump year, which seems to make sense given his yardage dropped by 20% (from 1,106 to 885) while his carries increased by 20% (from 229 to 278) - the thing is, gurley actually did better in his 2016 sophomore season than in his 2015 rookie of the year / pro bowl season, on 90% of his carries that is.

the problem was gurley just couldn't rip off the 10+ yarders in 2016, as he did in his rookie season, and as he did in 2017... as mentioned earlier, gurley ranked league best in 10+ yard runs in 2017 with 38, in his rookie year he ranked 7th best with 26 - and his sophomore year? gurley ranked a lowly 24th in 10+ yard runs with just 17.

here's a look at the league's top 5 rushing leaders over the past 6 seasons, and where they ranked in runs of 10+ yards - all told, for the 6-year stretch, the top 5 guys averaged 1,375 rushing yards on the season and ranked 4th in runs of 10+ yards:

z01.png

here's a look at the top rushers of 2017 in terms of carries that went for less than 10 yards and carries that went for more than 10 yards - what's interesting about this chart is the yards per carry average for runs under 10 yards and the "10+ ratio" columns which show the % of carries and yards that runs of 10+ yards accounted for... i've also compared gurley's 3 seasons in the league (top of the chart):

z02.png


and, finally, here's a look at gurley's 2017 directional runs, i've highlighted over the top good numbers in red.. so, for example, 14% of gurley's runs went wide left, for an average of 4.6 yards per carry, and a 2.6% td to run rate. moreover 37% of these runs went for a loss, 26% gained 0-2 yards, etc...

the over the top good numbers i mentioned, in red text, include a) 7.7 yards per carry average when running at the lt b) 52% of his runs went for 5 yards or more when running at the lt c) a total td rate of 4.7% per carry d) 40% of his carries went for 5 yards or more and e) 14% of his carries went for 20 yards or more:
z03.png

 by /zn/
5 years 9 months ago
 Total posts:   6758  
 Joined:  Jun 28 2015
United States of America   Maine
Hall of Fame

and when it comes to 10+ yards runs, no one booked more in 2017 than todd gurley - these runs accounted for just 13% of his total carries yet a whopping 53% of his total yards.


Here are some different stats that back all that, though it's not geared around one player. It's F.O. on OL stats. 2 of their OL stats are Second Level Yards: Yards which the team's running backs earn between 5-10 yards past the LOS, & Open Field Yards: Yards which the team's running backs earn more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage.

In 2017 the Rams were 1st in 2nd level yards, and 11th in Open Field Yards. At the same time they were 23rd in runs stuffed. So their RBs had more negative yardage plays than most teams, but were much better than other teams on big running plays.

In 2016 the Rams were 28th in runs stuffed, but also 31st in 2nd level yards and 30th in Open Field Yards. So they weren't that much different from 2017 on negative plays, but a whole lot worse than 2017 on runs that went past the LOS.

...

 by PARAM
5 years 9 months ago
 Total posts:   12185  
 Joined:  Jul 15 2015
Barbados   Just far enough North of Philadelphia
Hall of Fame

aeneas1 wrote:the problem was gurley just couldn't rip off the 10+ yarders in 2016


Well that's one opinion!!! ;)
I'm just glad he's serious about the 12 month a year job.



Take a look at the top 3 all time Ram RBs and their production their first 3 years.

Gurley has less yards than only ED but he's also run 275 less times.
He has less rushing TD's ( 29) than just ED (44).
And more receptions (128) than only ED (92) but almost as many yards as SJ (1303 to 1315 on 152 rec) and Marshall (1303 to 1425 on 164 rec).
His average reception (10.2) is 1.5 yards better than both Marshall and SJ and he has more receiving TDs (6) than all of them.
He's got a better ypc average than Marshall (4.2 to 3.7), just shy of SJ (4.2 to 4.4). ED had a 4.9 avg.
He's got more total TDs (35) than all but ED (46).
All in all, Gurley is demonstrating the legitimacy of his draft slot......even with the off year in a historically terrible offense.
And he's only been in a good offense for 1 season. I wonder if his numbers will be even better this year?

 by snackdaddy
5 years 9 months ago
 Total posts:   9631  
 Joined:  May 30 2015
United States of America   Merced California
Hall of Fame

I'm not sure if I remember this correctly. But I recall seeing something that said Gurley faced contact behind the LOS more than anyone in the league in 2016. IIRC, that was somewhere near the halfway point of the season. To me that is a significant stat that shows how poorly the line was blocking.

 by /zn/
5 years 9 months ago
 Total posts:   6758  
 Joined:  Jun 28 2015
United States of America   Maine
Hall of Fame

snackdaddy wrote:I'm not sure if I remember this correctly. But I recall seeing something that said Gurley faced contact behind the LOS more than anyone in the league in 2016. IIRC, that was somewhere near the halfway point of the season. To me that is a significant stat that shows how poorly the line was blocking.


According to Football Outsiders stats, that might be misleading.

On their OL stats they do Runs Stuffed. Percentage of the time the RB is stopped at or behind the LOS.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

Unfortunately that stat doesn't focus on Gurley alone--it's all of the team's RBs combined. Still, Gurley got the bulk of the carries from 2015-17 so the stat ought to be fine in talking about him.

In terms of Runs Stuffed,

Rams in 2015 were ranked 28th. (Runs stuffed 23% of the time.)
Rams in 2016 were ranked 22nd. (Runs stuffed 22% of the time.)
Rams in 2017 were ranked 23rd. (Runs stuffed 22% of the time.)

So really, according to that stat, there's no difference in terms of negative running plays between 2016 and 2017.

The big difference is yards gained past the LOS, both at the 2nd level (5-10 yards past the LOS) and in the open field (10 yards past the LOS).

The Rams--meaning, really, Gurley--were good at that in 2015, bad at that in 2016, and again good at that in 2017.

...

 by /zn/
5 years 9 months ago
 Total posts:   6758  
 Joined:  Jun 28 2015
United States of America   Maine
Hall of Fame

Dick84 wrote:Gurley’s blocking was horrific in 16. There was something else going on, IMO. Either he was hurt or just had a complete mental block because of frustration... because his isolated performance did not *look* like the Gurley of 15 or 17.


I agree. There was something. McGinnis said he was hurt. He himself said he started working out in the off-season later than usual. He said 1 or 2 months later. At OTAs he discovered he had lost weight. He didn't practice that summer. All of that is consistent with something being off physically. Or could be, anyway. And he looked off from game 1. He looked off when they were winning, with a 3-1 record in the 1st 4 games, so I don't attribute it to frustration. He looked off enough for some national analysts to wonder about his explosion, vision, or power (different writers said different things). He was just not the same back in 2016. That was just visible.

All the things the doubters said he didn't have or lost in 2016, he showed in abundance in 2017.

Lots of other things were different in 2017 too obviously, but I think he was different too. He looked like what we expected after 2015.

....

 by 69RamFan
5 years 9 months ago
 Total posts:   3164  
 Joined:  Oct 15 2016
United States of America   LA CA by way of NY/NJ
Superstar

Dick84 wrote:Gurley’s blocking was horrific in 16. There was something else going on, IMO. Either he was hurt or just had a complete mental block because of frustration... because his isolated performance did not *look* like the Gurley of 15 or 17.


Gurley was not hurt....
They changed the blocking scheme from 2015 to 2016....
That's why he was so upset at the play calling and he called it some high school type of scheme/play calling...

Then in 2017, he was being interview, if my memory serves me right with Prime time,,, he said that he doesn't have they same scheme and coaches anymore... no more high school play calling...

In 2016 with the bad scheme/play calling, and the Defense was loading up the box.... no wonder why he had a bad year....

Plus thank god that Gurley and Goff didnt get hurt from the weak line schemes.

This year playing in the same scheme and play calling from McVay, we should see much improvement,,,

For every starting players, the game will be much slower because they all will know the plays like looking at the back of their hands....

 by Extremes
5 years 9 months ago
 Total posts:   121  
 Joined:  Apr 20 2018
Belarus   LA
Practice Squad

I think Gurley is overrated and I have a hard time that nobody mentions him partying at 2am the day before the Atlanta playoff game.

 by Elvis
5 years 9 months ago
 Total posts:   38377  
 Joined:  Mar 28 2015
United States of America   Los Angeles
Administrator

Extremes wrote:I think Gurley is overrated and I have a hard time that nobody mentions him partying at 2am the day before the Atlanta playoff game.


You got backup for this? TMZ reported he was out Thursday Night before the Saturday game but no indication that he was partying, and nothing about Friday night...

 by Elvis
5 years 9 months ago
 Total posts:   38377  
 Joined:  Mar 28 2015
United States of America   Los Angeles
Administrator

snackdaddy wrote:I'm not sure if I remember this correctly. But I recall seeing something that said Gurley faced contact behind the LOS more than anyone in the league in 2016. IIRC, that was somewhere near the halfway point of the season. To me that is a significant stat that shows how poorly the line was blocking.


Or how shitty the scheme was...

  • 1 / 9
  • 1
  • 9
85 posts Mar 28 2024