Schedule Breakdown and Prediction
PostPosted:6 years 1 week ago
To come up with a prediction, I'm putting the games on the schedule into three categories: SHOULD WIN (S), TOSS-UP (T) and LONG SHOT (L).
I then base my prediction on the Rams winning 75% of S games, 50% of T games, and 25% of L games.
So here is my 2018 breakdown:
@Raiders - S
Cardinals - S
Chargers - T
Vikings - T
@Seahawks - S
@Broncos - S
@49ers - T
Packers - S
@Saints - T
Seahawks - S
Chiefs (Mexico City) - T
Lions - S
@Bears - S
Eagles - T
@Cardinals - S
49ers - S
So, that is 10 S games (7.5 expected wins), 6 T games (3.0 expected wins).
Total wins: 10.5 (I’m rounding up to 11)
I think that's about right. If you applied a margin of error of one game, that would be 10-12 wins, which is probably what most people are predicting for the Rams.
As you can see, I don't see any game on the schedule this year as a "long shot" (in past years, there have been several, but at this point I believe the Rams have at least a 50/50 chance of winning any game on its schedule).
An 11-5 record would likely be good enough to win the NFC West again, and could be enough for a bye (probably not the #1 seed, but potentially the #2 seed).
Agree? Disagree?
I then base my prediction on the Rams winning 75% of S games, 50% of T games, and 25% of L games.
So here is my 2018 breakdown:
@Raiders - S
Cardinals - S
Chargers - T
Vikings - T
@Seahawks - S
@Broncos - S
@49ers - T
Packers - S
@Saints - T
Seahawks - S
Chiefs (Mexico City) - T
Lions - S
@Bears - S
Eagles - T
@Cardinals - S
49ers - S
So, that is 10 S games (7.5 expected wins), 6 T games (3.0 expected wins).
Total wins: 10.5 (I’m rounding up to 11)
I think that's about right. If you applied a margin of error of one game, that would be 10-12 wins, which is probably what most people are predicting for the Rams.
As you can see, I don't see any game on the schedule this year as a "long shot" (in past years, there have been several, but at this point I believe the Rams have at least a 50/50 chance of winning any game on its schedule).
An 11-5 record would likely be good enough to win the NFC West again, and could be enough for a bye (probably not the #1 seed, but potentially the #2 seed).
Agree? Disagree?