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 by RamsFanSince82
6 years 3 months ago
 Total posts:   5851  
 Joined:  Aug 20 2015
United States of America   So. Cal.
Hall of Fame



With the NFL down to its final four, 28 of the league's 32 teams are already thinking about next season. That also means 28 of the league's 32 fan bases are focusing on the offseason to come and what to expect from their team in 2018.

Of course, it's too early to have a strong sense about what each team's roster construction will look like. We don't know who will retire, where players will end up in free agency or who will end up drafting who when. All of that is true, but it doesn't make guessing or projecting any less fun.

So let's do that. I'm going to run through each team and project what I think their over/under will be in Las Vegas for the 2018 season. To do this, I'm using their performance from the 2017 season (and years past), applying whatever I learned from living in Las Vegas for a year and talking to bookmakers during my time at Grantland and making various assumptions about what each team will do during the offseason. These aren't the numbers I would project for each organization in 2018, but instead my guess as to what the actual lines might be come April.

For the uninitiated, an over/under bet on a team's win total is a bet on whether a team will finish with more wins than the listed total. The Patriots, for example, were posted with a 12.5-win total in 2017. An over bet would have required them to win 13 games, which they successfully accomplished. An under bet would have won if the Patriots had won 12 or fewer games.

Games that end in a tie count as losses.

If a team matches its over/under (as the Titans did by going 9-7 with a nine-win over/under), the bettor is returned whatever he/she bet without any profit or loss.

The typical bet is -110, meaning bettors need to bet $110 on either side of the over/under to win $100. That will be the default line for the bets listed below, but a few bets will have juice weighted toward one side of the line or the other. The 2017 Patriots, for example, were listed as even money over 12.5 wins and -120 on the under. That means a $120 bet on the over would have paid $120, while a $120 bet on the under would only have paid $100 if it won.

Let's get to the teams, in order from lowest projected over/under to highest. You won't be surprised with where we start or end.

I'm only going to post the NFC West teams. You can go to the link to read about the other teams or copy and paste the rest of the teams into the thread.

Arizona Cardinals

Projected 2018 over/under: 7 wins

It's almost impossible to project the Cardinals, given that they don't have a head coach or an obvious choice at quarterback. If general manager Steve Keim opts to go for a veteran and trades for Alex Smith, this number will be higher, even if the Cardinals performed far worse than their 8-8 record this past season. And likewise, if Arizona settles for a stopgap such as Josh McCown and drafts a quarterback 15th overall, this number might fall below six in a division that already has three franchise quarterbacks.

San Francisco Niners

Projected 2018 over/under: 7.5 wins (Over -130, Under +110)

And this was the toughest number to peg, if only because the Niners looked like a totally different animal while going 5-0 under Jimmy Garoppolo. Kyle Shanahan's team isn't going to go undefeated in 2018 with its new quarterback, but the 49ers are going to return Jimmy GQ and a defense with as many as six first-round picks. And they should have something in the range of $100 million to work with in free agency. They could get good in a hurry. San Francisco also is in a tough division, and the NFC West has to face off against the NFC North and AFC West next year. The Niners' road schedule includes six teams that were .500 or better this past season, along with a game at Lambeau Field against the Packers.

Seattle Seahawks
Projected 2018 over/under: 9.5 wins

The Seahawks we saw roll off five consecutive double-digit win seasons from 2012 to 2016 might not resemble the team we see in 2018. Even getting beyond Cliff Avril and Kam Chancellor possibly retiring and Jimmy Graham leaving in free agency, Seattle could choose to cut ties with the likes of Michael Bennett and Richard Sherman as it transitions to a new core of talent. Coach Pete Carroll also has replaced both coordinators, and the hires -- Brian Schottenheimer and Ken Norton Jr. -- aren't exactly slam dunks. The floor for a team with Russell Wilson and Earl Thomas is pretty high, but this roster could look very different by the time we get to September.

Los Angeles Rams

Projected 2018 over/under:9.5 wins

If your friend tells you that they knew the Rams were going to breakout in 2017, keep in mind that their Vegas over/under before Week 1 was at six wins with heavy juice (-160) on the under. Very few people saw this year's 11-5 breakout coming, and while the Rams are returning many of their big names, their secondary will be a question mark if they can't resign Trumaine Johnson and Lamarcus Joyner. The Rams also have to figure out whether to retain Sammy Watkins, who was their fourth target in the passing game this past season, and they are missing their second-round pick in the draft. Sean McVay's team improved by seven wins over that of 2016; since 1989, teams that have jumped by seven or more wins in a given year declined by nearly four wins the following season.

 by RamsFanSince82
6 years 3 months ago
 Total posts:   5851  
 Joined:  Aug 20 2015
United States of America   So. Cal.
Hall of Fame

Only four teams have a higher projected win total than the Rams. The Packers (10 wins), Eagles (10 1/2), Steelers (10 1/2), and Pats (12).

 by Elvis
6 years 3 months ago
 Total posts:   38771  
 Joined:  Mar 28 2015
United States of America   Los Angeles
Administrator

Kind of hard to read but 5Dimes has win totals up for 2018 and the Rams are at 9.5 but considering the vig looks like money is coming in on the under...

Arizona Cardinals NFL Regular Season Wins
Thu 9/6 26001 ARI regular season wins over 6½
+100
12:00PM 26002 ARI regular season wins under 6½
-140
Atlanta Falcons NFL Regular Season Wins
Thu 9/6 26021 ATL regular season wins over 9
-140
12:00PM 26022 ATL regular season wins under 9
+100
Baltimore Ravens NFL Regular Season Wins
Thu 9/6 26041 BAL regular season wins over 8½
+120
12:00PM 26042 BAL regular season wins under 8½
-160
Buffalo Bills NFL Regular Season Wins
Thu 9/6 26061 BUF regular season wins over 6½
-125
12:00PM 26062 BUF regular season wins under 6½
-115
Carolina Panthers NFL Regular Season Wins
Thu 9/6 26081 CAR regular season wins over 9
+100
12:00PM 26082 CAR regular season wins under 9
-140
Chicago Bears NFL Regular Season Wins
Thu 9/6 26101 CHI regular season wins over 6½
-130
12:00PM 26102 CHI regular season wins under 6½
-110
Cincinnati Bengals NFL Regular Season Wins
Thu 9/6 26121 CIN regular season wins over 7
-140
12:00PM 26122 CIN regular season wins under 7
+100
Cleveland Browns - NFL Regular Season Wins
Thu 9/6 26141 CLE regular season wins over 4½
+120
12:00PM 26142 CLE regular season wins under 4½
-160
Dallas Cowboys NFL Regular Season Wins
Thu 9/6 26161 DAL regular season wins over 9
-145
12:00PM 26162 DAL regular season wins under 9
+105
Denver Broncos NFL Regular Season Wins
Thu 9/6 26181 DEN regular season wins over 7
-175
12:00PM 26182 DEN regular season wins under 7
+135
Detroit Lions NFL Regular Season Wins
Thu 9/6 26201 DET regular season wins over 8
+120
12:00PM 26202 DET regular season wins under 8
-160
Green Bay Packers NFL Regular Season Wins
Thu 9/6 26221 GB regular season wins over 10
+120
12:00PM 26222 GB regular season wins under 10
-160
Houston Texans NFL Regular Season Wins
Thu 9/6 26241 HOU regular season wins over 8½
-120
12:00PM 26242 HOU regular season wins under 8½
-120
Indianapolis Colts NFL Regular Season Wins
Thu 9/6 26261 IND regular season wins over 5½
-350
12:00PM 26262 IND regular season wins under 5½
+250
Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Regular Season Wins
Thu 9/6 26281 JAX regular season wins over 8½
-190
12:00PM 26282 JAX regular season wins under 8½
+150
Kansas City Chiefs NFL Regular Season Wins
Thu 9/6 26301 KC regular season wins over 9
+130
12:00PM 26302 KC regular season wins under 9
-170
Los Angeles Chargers NFL Regular Season
Thu 9/6 26321 LAC regular season wins over 8
-150
12:00PM 26322 LAC regular season wins under 8
+110
Los Angeles Rams NFL Regular Season Wins
Thu 9/6 26341 LAR regular season wins over 9½
+115
12:00PM 26342 LAR regular season wins under 9½
-155
Miami Dolphins NFL Regular Season Wins
Thu 9/6 26361 MIA regular season wins over 7
+110
12:00PM 26362 MIA regular season wins under 7
-150
Minnesota Vikings NFL Regular Season Wins
Thu 9/6 26381 MIN regular season wins over 9½
-110
12:00PM 26382 MIN regular season wins under 9½
-130
New England Patriots NFL Regular Season Wins
Thu 9/6 26401 NE regular season wins over 12
+135
12:00PM 26402 NE regular season wins under 12
-175
New Orleans Saints NFL Regular Season Wins
Thu 9/6 26421 NOR regular season wins over 9½
+115
12:00PM 26422 NOR regular season wins under 9½
-155
New York Giants NFL Regular Season Wins
Thu 9/6 26441 NYG regular season wins over 6
-150
12:00PM 26442 NYG regular season wins under 6
+110
New York Jets NFL Regular Season Wins
Thu 9/6 26461 NYJ regular season wins over 5
-120
12:00PM 26462 NYJ regular season wins under 5
-120
Oakland Raiders NFL Regular Season Wins
Thu 9/6 26481 OAK regular season wins over 8
-140
12:00PM 26482 OAK regular season wins under 8
+100
Philadelphia Eagles NFL Regular Season Wins
Thu 9/6 26501 PHI regular season wins over 10½
+100
12:00PM 26502 PHI regular season wins under 10½
-140
Pittsburgh Steelers NFL Regular Season Wins
Thu 9/6 26521 PIT regular season wins over 10½
+100
12:00PM 26522 PIT regular season wins under 10½
-140
San Francisco 49ers NFL Regular Season Wins
Thu 9/6 26541 SF regular season wins over 7½
-260
12:00PM 26542 SF regular season wins under 7½
+180
Seattle Seahawks NFL Regular Season Wins
Thu 9/6 26561 SEA regular season wins over 9
-120
12:00PM 26562 SEA regular season wins under 9
-120
Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Regular Season Wins
Thu 9/6 26581 TB regular season wins over 6½
-120
12:00PM 26582 TB regular season wins under 6½
-120
Tennessee Titans NFL Regular Season Wins
Thu 9/6 26601 TEN regular season wins over 7½
-170
12:00PM 26602 TEN regular season wins under 7½
+130
Washington Redskins NFL Regular Season Wins
Thu 9/6 26621 WAS regular season wins over 7
-110
12:00PM 26622 WAS regular season wins under 7
-130

 by Hacksaw
6 years 3 months ago
 Total posts:   24523  
 Joined:  Apr 15 2015
United States of America   AT THE BEACH
Moderator

Translation por favor?

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5 posts May 18 2024