How much has the game changed in 10 years? 20?
PostPosted:7 years 3 months ago
It's become a passing league. We all know that. The 1999 Rams (particularly Mike Martz) are given credit for the change in philosophy, rightly or not. I happen to believe rightly. But how much has it changed and how can we measure it, other than examining the yardage averages year to year?
In 2016, the average number of pass attempts for a team was 571.7. In 2006 it was 512.2. The increase of 59.5 passes per year equating to 3.7 more passes per game doesn't seem like a lot does it? The total yards gained was 4089.5 minus sack yards, which averaged 34.9 sacks for 225.8 yards creating a net of 3863.7 passing yards. In 2006 the total was 3508.7 per team minus 231.7 (on 36.3 sacks) for a net of 3277.0. That's almost 600 yards more per year and 36.6 yards per game. Still doesn't seem like a lot right?
Rush attempts went down from 451.5 per team to 416.3 per team which is 35.2 less per year equating to only 2.2 attempts per game less. Yards gained dropped from 1877 to 1742.6 (134.4 per year), an average of 8.4 rushing yards per game. So we're at a net of +36.6 passing yards minus 8.4 rushing yards or a + of 28.4 offensive yards per game. Still doesn't seem like a huge change really.
Well it might if you take a look at the 2, 3 and 4 year averages by player.
For instance back in 2007, the top 5 rushing leaders over the previous 2 years looked like this:
Larry Johnson 3,539
Tiki Barber 3,522
Tomlinson 3,277
S. Alexander 2,776
Rudi Johnson 2,767
Entering this season it looked like this:
McCoy 2,162
Freeman 2,135
Gore 1,992
DeMarco Murray 1,989
Gurley 1,911
Still not convinced?
How about 03-06 (4 years) compared to 13-16?
Tomlinson 6,257
Barber 6,256
Alexander 5,907
Edge 5,472
R.Johnson 5,178
13-16
McCoy 5,088 (that 1200 yards or 300 yards per season)
Murray 4,955
Gore 4,226
Forte 4,088
Bell 4,045
I like Rudi Johnson but he was no LeVeon Bell right? Yet he gained 1,133 more yards over 4 seasons. Still almost 300 per year like L.T. over McCoy. It seems to have been such a inconsequential change.....3.7 more passes and 2.2 less rushing attempts.....but it sure as hell has had an impact on the totals over a few years. Could it also be how defense is played?
He's another one.
From 03-06 Peyton Manning in the prime of his career had 16,968 passing yards. From 2013 to 2016 Brees had 20,192. That's 3,224 more. Roethlisberger, #5 over the pass 4 years in yards, behind Brees, Ryan (18,744), Rivers (17,942) and Stafford (17,496) amassed 16,970, two more yards than PM, who was #1 over the previous 4 years going into 2007. Small changes make for some big differences.
So GLAD we got McVay and Goff. But having Gurley sure as hell doesn't hurt either!!!
FWIW, 20 years ago, the totals weren't that much different than 10 years ago.
#1 Favre, 15,497 from 1993 - 1996. Barry Sanders 6,051. Favre had about 1500 less than Manning, Sanders about 200 less than LT, which probably speaks to the talents of Favre and LT.
Thoughts?
In 2016, the average number of pass attempts for a team was 571.7. In 2006 it was 512.2. The increase of 59.5 passes per year equating to 3.7 more passes per game doesn't seem like a lot does it? The total yards gained was 4089.5 minus sack yards, which averaged 34.9 sacks for 225.8 yards creating a net of 3863.7 passing yards. In 2006 the total was 3508.7 per team minus 231.7 (on 36.3 sacks) for a net of 3277.0. That's almost 600 yards more per year and 36.6 yards per game. Still doesn't seem like a lot right?
Rush attempts went down from 451.5 per team to 416.3 per team which is 35.2 less per year equating to only 2.2 attempts per game less. Yards gained dropped from 1877 to 1742.6 (134.4 per year), an average of 8.4 rushing yards per game. So we're at a net of +36.6 passing yards minus 8.4 rushing yards or a + of 28.4 offensive yards per game. Still doesn't seem like a huge change really.
Well it might if you take a look at the 2, 3 and 4 year averages by player.
For instance back in 2007, the top 5 rushing leaders over the previous 2 years looked like this:
Larry Johnson 3,539
Tiki Barber 3,522
Tomlinson 3,277
S. Alexander 2,776
Rudi Johnson 2,767
Entering this season it looked like this:
McCoy 2,162
Freeman 2,135
Gore 1,992
DeMarco Murray 1,989
Gurley 1,911
Still not convinced?
How about 03-06 (4 years) compared to 13-16?
Tomlinson 6,257
Barber 6,256
Alexander 5,907
Edge 5,472
R.Johnson 5,178
13-16
McCoy 5,088 (that 1200 yards or 300 yards per season)
Murray 4,955
Gore 4,226
Forte 4,088
Bell 4,045
I like Rudi Johnson but he was no LeVeon Bell right? Yet he gained 1,133 more yards over 4 seasons. Still almost 300 per year like L.T. over McCoy. It seems to have been such a inconsequential change.....3.7 more passes and 2.2 less rushing attempts.....but it sure as hell has had an impact on the totals over a few years. Could it also be how defense is played?
He's another one.
From 03-06 Peyton Manning in the prime of his career had 16,968 passing yards. From 2013 to 2016 Brees had 20,192. That's 3,224 more. Roethlisberger, #5 over the pass 4 years in yards, behind Brees, Ryan (18,744), Rivers (17,942) and Stafford (17,496) amassed 16,970, two more yards than PM, who was #1 over the previous 4 years going into 2007. Small changes make for some big differences.
So GLAD we got McVay and Goff. But having Gurley sure as hell doesn't hurt either!!!
FWIW, 20 years ago, the totals weren't that much different than 10 years ago.
#1 Favre, 15,497 from 1993 - 1996. Barry Sanders 6,051. Favre had about 1500 less than Manning, Sanders about 200 less than LT, which probably speaks to the talents of Favre and LT.
Thoughts?