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 by aeneas1
7 years 2 months ago
 Total posts:   16894  
 Joined:  Sep 13 2015
United States of America   Norcal
Hall of Fame

next generation stats has started to compile some interesting data, which i've loaded into a spreadsheet to get a better, more telling narrative.

here's a look at the average yardage separation between receiver (wr/te) and defender at the point of completion or incompletion - interestingly, separation seems to correlate to the amount of defensive cushion given at the snap of the ball.

for example, through 3 weeks of the 2017 season those who have ranked in the top 10 in largest cushion average have averaged 2.3 yards of separation a the point of catch or incompletion, which is almost 20% more in separation than those who ranked in the bottom 10 in cushion average. for the 2016 season the percentage was 26%, which is nothing to sneeze at. when looking at the top 20 in cushion average, separation is around 17% greater than bottom 20 for both 2017 and 2016.

increased cushion also seems to correlate to catch rate, i.e. those who rank in the top 10 in catch rate have a higher cushion average than those who rank in the bottom 10, same goes for top 20, in 2017 and 2016.

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and here's a comparison between 2016/2017 rams receivers and the nfl average... a couple of things that jump out from this chart:

- watkins defies the league average in terms separation vs cushion. his average cushion of 3.6 yards is very low, well below the league average of 5.9 yards, yet his separation average is high, well above the 2017 league average.

- rams receivers are catching the catching the ball in 2017 or, more likely, are seeing more catchable balls. this in turn has produced a very high yards per target rate, well above last year's rams receivers and well above the league average.

- goff has thrown a lot of passes beyond 15 yards, which accounts for his league leading yards per attempt average. however he is not unleashing a bunch of bombs, which is why the average depth of receiver target appears a bit low compared to last season and the league average.

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note: the above stats are for wr and te and only include the most targeted, a min 43 targets in 2016 and a min 8 targets in 2017.

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1 post Dec 09 2024