[Elvis]

http://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/9/t/1294884.aspx

1 Sea +7

2 NE +6

3 GB+6

4 Den +5

5 Indy +4

These will SURELY move considerably after we see a few weeks of football. My ratings utilize some regression in the ratings, but that has NOT been correct the last few years (the good teams have remained good). I am confident in these numbers to start the year! To get a point spread take the difference in the ratings, factor in 3 (see chart for non 3 teams) for HFA and you have a good starting number (if it is above 7, you need to tweek the number down however).

31-Dec Week1 HFA if not 3
Arizona -3 0.5
Atlanta -2 -0.5
Baltimore 2.5 3
Buffalo -1.5 1
Carolina -3 -1.5
Chicago -8 -6 2
Cincy 2 2.5
Cleveland -3 -4
Dallas 2 2.5 2
Denver 6 5
Detroit 2 1.5
Green Bay 6.5 6 4
Houston -3.5 -1
Indy 4 4
Jax -10 -6.5 2
KC 1.5 1.5
Mia 1.5 2 2
Minny -3.5 0
NEW Eng 8 6
New Orl 0 0
NYG -4 -3 2
NYJ -6 -2 2
Oakland -10.5 -6 2
Philly 1.5 3
Pit 1.5 2.5
SD -0.5 0.5
SF -2 -6 2
Sea 8 7 4
St. Louis -1 -1
Tampa -9 -6 2
Ten -11 -5 2
Wash -7.5 -6 2

[Elvis]

So, going by Fezzik's numbers:

Seattle is +7 while the Rams are -1 and the Rams home field advantage is 3 so the spread should be Seattle by 5.

The actual spread is Seattle by 4 so Fezz probably likes Seattle a little bit in this game...

[kayfabe]

For the record the Rams HFA is a bit closer to 2 than 3 (Massey has them at 2.48,
The Gold Sheet is at 3.00), but I'll use the Gold Sheet numbers for all the games
and apply Fezzik's ratings to see where's there's some value (again, this is for
entertainment purposes only) --

NWE vs. Pit: 6.0 - 2.5 + 3 ==> NewEng by 6.5 (actual spread: 7.0, off by 0.5)
CHI vs. Gnb: -6.0 - 6.0 + 2 ==> GrnBay by 10.0 (actual spread: 7.0, off by 3.0)
HOU vs. Kan: -1.0 - 1.5 + 3 ==> Houstn by 0.5 (actual spread: 1.0, off by 0.5)
NYJ vs. Cle: -2.0 --4.0 + 3 ==> NYJets by 5.0 (actual spread: 3.0, off by 2.0)
BUF vs. Ind: 1.0 - 4.0 + 3 ==> BufInd pick'em (actual spread: 2.5, off by 2.5)
WAS vs. Mia: -6.0 --2.0 + 2 ==> MiamiD by 2.0 (actual spread: 4.0, off by 2.0)
JAC vs. Car: -6.5 --1.5 + 3 ==> Carlna by 2.0 (actual spread: 3.5, off by 1.5)
STL vs. Sea: -1.0 - 7.0 + 3 ==> Seattl by 5.0 (actual spread: 4.0, off by 1.0)
ARI vs. Nor: 0.5 - 0.0 + 3 ==> Arizna by 3.5 (actual spread: 2.5, off by 1.0)
SDG vs. Det: 0.5 - 1.5 + 3 ==> SanDgo by 2.0 (actual spread 3.0, off by 1.0)
TAM vs Ten: -6.0 --5.0 + 2 ==> TampaB by 1.0 (actual spread 3.0, off by 2.0)
OAK vs. Cin: -6.0 - 2.5 + 2 ==> CincyB by 6.5 (actual spread 3.5, off by 3.0)
DEN vs. Bal: 5.0 - 3.0 + 3 ==> Denver by 5.0 (actual spread 4.5, off by 0.5)
DAL vs. Nyg: 2.5 --3.0 + 2 ==> Dallas by 7.5 (actual spread 5.5, off by 2.0)
ATL vs. Phi: -0.5 - 3.0 + 3 ==> Philly by 0.5 (actual spread 2.5, off by 2.0)
SFO vs. Min: -6.0 - 0.0 + 2 ==> Minnst by 4.0 (actual spread 2.5, off by 1.5)

Not too many bargains here. In fact every game is lined within three points
of his ratings. Will be interesting to see what he plays in the
Westgate (formerly the Las Vegas Hilton Superbook) Contest, where he needs to pick
just five games a week. From the above it looks like he'd lean to a
bunch of road favorites (Green Bay, Cincy, Miami), but that's usually not his style.
Would be very surprised though if Buffalo wasn't one of his plays...

And for the record I've got the Rams game lined at Seattle 23.1, StlRams 19.4, so Seattle by 3.7.
Or basically right on the spread and over/under number as well...

[Hacksaw]

WK 1 is always tough to call.

[Elvis]

Good stuff kayfabe, that's why it's so hard to bet the NFL, lines are usually where most people think they should be.

I really have to learn how to use the Table tags, my data looks horrible...

[Hacksaw]

NFL Nation reporters say Rams will go 4-12
By Nick Wagoner

http://espn.go.com/blog/st-louis-rams/p ... ll-go-4-12

EARTH CITY, Mo. -- On Tuesday, our 32 NFL Nation reporters offered game-by-game predictions for the teams we cover. I had the St. Louis Rams finishing at 8-8, which would be a two-game improvement over last year and the best record the team has posted under coach Jeff Fisher.

It would also qualify as a disappointment in Year 4 of the Fisher regime. But in rounding up the scores from the reporters on the other side, it's apparently also quite optimistic. I scanned the predictions of the reporters on the other side of these games and, added together, they have the Rams going 4-12. Fisher teams rarely drop to those levels and there are some surprising picks, such as the Rams losing at home to the Browns coming out of their bye week and to a Tampa Bay team they've owned recently at home near the end of the season. The NFC North reporters actually offered the Rams the most respect, with only the Packers predicted to defeat the Rams in those four division games.

Here's the breakdown:

Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 13, vs. Seattle, 1 p.m. ET

Wagoner: Rams 13, Seahawks 10. Record: 1-0

Seahawks reporter Sheil Kapadia: Seahawks 17, Rams 13. Rams record via NFL Nation: 0-1

Week 2: Sunday, Sept. 20, at Washington, 1 p.m. ET

Wagoner: Rams 24, Redskins 14. Record: 2-0

Redskins reporter John Keim: Redskins 17, Rams 14. Rams record via NFL Nation: 0-2

Week 3: Sunday, Sept. 27, vs. Pittsburgh, 1 p.m. ET

Wagoner: Steelers 30, Rams 20. Record: 2-1

Steelers reporter Jeremy Fowler: Steelers 24, Rams 20. Rams record via NFL Nation: 0-3

Week 4: Sunday, Oct. 4, at Arizona, 4:25 p.m. ET

Wagoner: Cardinals 20, Rams 16. Record 2-2

Cardinals reporter Josh Weinfuss: Rams 17, Cardinals 10. Rams record via NFL Nation: 1-3

Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 11, at Green Bay, 1 p.m. ET

Wagoner: Packers 34, Rams 17. Record: 2-3

Packers reporter Rob Demovsky: Packers 37, Rams 13. Rams record via NFL Nation: 1-4

Week 6: Bye

Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 25, vs. Cleveland, 1 p.m. ET

Wagoner: Rams 24, Browns 9. Record: 3-3

Browns reporter Pat McManamon: Browns 17, Rams 16. Rams record via NFL Nation: 1-5

Week 8: Sunday, Nov. 1, vs. San Francisco, 1 p.m. ET

Wagoner: Rams 20, 49ers 14. Record: 4-3

49ers reporter Paul Gutierrez: 49ers 27, Rams 16. Rams record via NFL Nation: 1-6

Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 8, at Minnesota, 1 p.m. ET

Wagoner: Vikings 31, Rams 13. Record: 4-4

Vikings reporter Ben Goessling: Rams 21, Vikings 16. Rams record via NFL Nation: 2-6

Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 15, vs. Chicago, 1 p.m. ET

Wagoner: Rams 31, Bears 21. Record: 5-4

Bears reporter Jeff Dickerson: Rams 28, Bears 6. Rams record via NFL Nation: 3-6

Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 22, at Baltimore, 1 p.m. ET

Wagoner: Ravens 26, Rams 19. Record: 5-5

Ravens reporter Jamison Hensley: Ravens 16, Rams 6. Rams record via NFL Nation: 3-7

Week 12: Sunday, Nov. 29, at Cincinnati, 1 p.m. ET

Wagoner: Rams 27, Bengals 13. Record: 6-5

Bengals reporter Coley Harvey: Bengals 17, Rams 13. Rams record via NFL Nation: 3-8

Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 6, vs. Arizona, 1 p.m. ET

Wagoner: Rams 13, Cardinals 6. Record: 7-5

Weinfuss: Cardinals 24, Rams 14. Rams record via NFL Nation: 3-9

Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 13, vs. Detroit, 1 p.m. ET

Wagoner: Lions 26, Rams 20. Record: 7-6

Lions reporter Mike Rothstein: Rams 24, Lions 17. Rams record via NFL Nation: 4-9

Week 15: Thursday, Dec. 17, vs. Tampa Bay, 8:25 p.m. ET

Wagoner: Rams 22, Buccaneers 10. Record: 8-6

Buccaneers reporter Pat Yasinskas: Bucs 24, Rams 14. Rams record via NFL Nation: 4-10

Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 27, at Seattle, 4:25 p.m. ET

Wagoner: Seahawks 20, Rams 9. Record: 8-7

Kapadia: Seahawks 21, Rams 14. Rams record via NFL Nation: 4-11

Week 17: Sunday, Jan. 3, at San Francisco, 4:25 p.m. ET

Wagoner: 49ers 16, Rams 13. Record: 8-8

Gutierrez: 49ers 23, Rams 20. Rams record via NFL Nation: 4-12

[OldSchool]

So many of the teams worth picking are road favorites in week 1, that's never a reassuring bet.

[Elvis]

Yeah, tough week to start in a suicide pool.

In the NFL Nation thing we have Arizona and Minnesota writers predicting home losses to the Rams with Chicago and Detroit writers predicting losses in St. Louis...

[Elvis]

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/kawakami/2 ... e-em-both/

NFL Picks, Week 1: Raiders and 49ers both home underdogs? To open a season? That’s rare and I’ll take ’em both

Posted on September 10, 2015 by Tim Kawakami

Two new coaches. One in Oakland.

And one in Santa Clara.

Both start their new gigs in their home stadiums as underdogs. What does the esteemed NFL Picks Panel do about this? Well, here we go again…

–Just some stats from last year: According to pro-football-reference.com, the 49ers were 4-10-2 against the Las Vegas number last season, including losing their last six in a row ATS.

–The Raiders were 8-8 ATS last year, according to pro-football-reference.com.

1. RYAN (last season 30-31-1)/

* RAIDERS +3, over Cincinnati. Ryan comment: I like the Raiders to hit that range of 7-9 wins that Jack Del Rio has made famous. To do that, this has to be one of them. Carr picks up where he left off and this year has some competence on the outside and on the other side of the ball.

* MINNESOTA -2.5, over 49ers. Ryan comment: We’ll hear all week about how good the 49ers have been at bottling up Adrian Peterson. Forget that. These aren’t those 49ers.

* GREEN BAY -7, over Chicago. Ryan comment: Mike McCarthy might have been indelicate with his comment about kicking Bear butt, but he wasn’t wrong.

2. PURDY (last season 27-34-1)/

* RAIDERS +3, over Cincinnati. Purdy comment: I have a gut feeling that the Del Rio era will start out with a bang. Can’t guarantee the bang will sustain over 16 games but on Opening Day, I think the troops will be fired up to show they aren’t the same old Raiders.

* 49ERS +2.5, over Minnesota. Purdy comment: Yikes. A home underdog in the prime team season opener against a non-playoff team? My, how the 49ers’ reputation has fallen. But I’m sticking with my prediction of a 8-8 season. And I’ve got this slated as one of the eight victories. But that right side of the offensive line is such a concern. Look for many bailout runs by Kaepernick to his left. He might have 100 yards rushing. That won’t work all season long but for one game, it might be enough.

* INDIANAPOLIS -3, over Buffalo. Purdy comment: I’m riding the Colts all the way this season. Andrew Luck has never seen a Buffalo defense he didn’t love to chew up… he even beat the Bills during his up-and-down rookie season in 2012.

3. KAWAKAMI (last season 26-35-1)/

* RAIDERS +3, over Cincinnati. My comment: Haven’t been able to trust the Raiders with formula plays for much of the last decade, but I really do think Jack Del Rio will bring a stabilizing NFL normalcy to the proceedings.

In other words, the Raiders probably will win most of the games they’re supposed to win, they’ll still lose most of the games they’re supposed to lose, and in the toss-up games, you just go with the formula. For this week, that’d be: At home getting points, you jump on that.

The Bengals are definitely more talented and more experienced; but it’s always tough to open a season on the road, and as I’ve often said, sometimes the team that shows up after a five-hour flight isn’t the same one that got on that plane. Just happens that way.

I think this might one of those times; I can see a few Bengals turnovers, a good Raiders pass rush, some decent Raiders run-stuffing, a play here or there by Derek Carr and Amari Cooper, and something like a 20-17 outright Raiders victory.

* 49ERS +2.5, over Minnesota. My comment: Didn’t notice this until just a few days ago–this game has had a massive 6-point swing since Vegas opened it back in the spring–the 49ers started as a 3.5-point favorite and now they’re almost a FG underdog.

Obviously, since April the 49ers have lost a whole barrage of players and Adrian Peterson has been ruled eligible for the Vikings, so it’s all explainable. But man, that is a huge, huge swing and I admit it has changed my mind on this game.

If the line hadn’t moved, there’s no way I would’ve taken the 49ers–we just don’t know what to expect from a Jim Tomula/Geep Chryst/Eric Mangini team that doesn’t have Patrick Willis, Justin Smith, Frank Gore, Aldon Smith and Anthony Davis.

We know Minnesota is pretty good–7-9 last year without Peterson for most of the season, in Teddy Bridgewater’s rookie season, and the Vikings should be better this season.

But giving points on the road to open the season… when they were 2-6 on the road last season… I can’t do that and I will presume Colin Kaepernick, Carlos Hyde and the makeshift 49ers offensive line can move the ball enough to score 20 points and the 49ers defense still has enough talent to keep Peterson from controlling the game.

Here’s a 2014 stat: The 49ers’ offense failed to gain over 350 yards in seven straight games from Nov. 2 to Dec. 9. That’s not a workable number (even though two of those were against the Seahawks).

I think if the 49ers can limit the sloppiness (TBD), they’ll have every chance to win this outright, something like 20-13. Champagne all around to start the Tomsula Era.

* NEW ENGLAND -7, over Pittsburgh. My comment: I’m not saying the defending champions will rise up from these last few rocky months and go 16-0 this season, blow everybody out, and cover the spread every time… but I would think Belichick & Brady will do a lot of that, especially at home, especially at the start.

I am flashing to the 2007 squad, which was in the middle of the SpyGate accusations and investigation, and did actually go 16-0 in the regular season, outscoring opponents by 315 points. That team started 8-0 against the Vegas spread, covering four games when they were giving up more than two TDs.

So with all the emotion of opening on the featured Thursday game, with Brady just released from the NFL’s four-game suspension, with all that pent-up Patriots fervor in front of the home crowd… I would think the Steelers are going to have a tough time in this one.

Might not last all season for either team, but I’ll say it’s something like 34-14 New England, easily covering the number.

4. BACH (last season 25-37-1)/
-Picks TBA.

— MARCUS THOMPSON II (last season DNP)/

* CINCINNATI -3, over Raiders. Thompson comment: This home opener is huge for the Raiders. The Coliseum is sure to be turnt on Sunday. Expecting it to feel like the 49ers’ visit last year. It can go either way, which speaks well of the Raiders.

Oakland will get pressure on Andy Dalton, who is under a microscope. But the Bengals have a pretty good fall-back plan. Two of them, actually: Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard. The versatility of their run game, the threat that A.J. Green poses, that’s a handful for this new Raiders defense, which gave up more points than any team in the league last year.

Conversely, the Bengals defense might be returning to form. Geno Atkins reportedly looks like he’s back to being a stud. Not fully recovered from a 2013 ACL tear, Atkins struggled in 2014. If he’s back to form, that immediately gives the Bengals a top-10 defensive line, which also got end Michael Johnson back.

That Bengals defense still won’t have Vontaze Burfict back, but it should be sturdy enough to prove a stern test for the Raiders offense, which should be much improved.

Can Latavius Murray make headway against that defensive front? Can Derek Carr and his weapons take advantage of a secondary with some areas to attack?

Sure. Cincinnati managed just 20 sacks as a team last year. I can see where the Raiders might have success.

But overall the Bengals are more talented, they have experience, they’ve been together a while — and usually wait until the end of the year to start choking.

The Raiders take a tough-but-encouraging loss as they start the process of learning how to win. Even in a loss, though, the Raiders display how much they’ve grown.

* 49ERS +2.5, over Minnesota. Thompson comment: The Vikings have Adrian Peterson, who is fresh and motivated. But they have an offensive line with major question marks (on the right side, just like the 49ers). And the 49ers have NaVorro Bowman, formidable opposition for the greatness of AP.

Minnesota has a good looking young quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater. But he has yet to beat a winning team (not that he’s facing one on Monday). He has his issues with accuracy, which should help a 49ers defense trying to reacquire its mojo.

The Vikings’ defense was pretty good in keeping points off the board. But they’re a suspect run defense. And since the 49ers’ strength is going to be running the ball, whether it be Carlos Hyde or Colin Kaepernick, that’s not a good sign.

Both of these teams have issues. Yeah, they have some bright spots. But both are flawed with holes all over the place. That’s a schedule blessing for the 49ers, who truly needed to start the season against a team as suspect as they are.

Being home, the relief of finally playing after an offseason of tumult, and the play of Kaepernick is enough to get it done. The Vikings are on the rise, just not there yet.

* ST. LOUIS +4, over Seattle. Thompson comment: This might be the worst possible scenario for the Seahawks to open the season. Seattle’s offensive line, which in essence has three new players, has to build chemistry against the best defensive front in the league. Ouch. Beastmode and Russell Wilson and Jimmy Graham will be tested straight out the gate.

And there are question marks on Seattle’s defense. Kam Chancellor is holding out. Cary Williams is a journeyman corner starting opposite Richard Sherman since Byron Maxwell took the Eagles’ money. And stud free safety Earl Thomas hasn’t played a game since the Super Bowl thanks to shoulder surgery.

Last year, the Rams beat Seattle. This year, the Rams are better and Seattle may not be (at this point). And St. Louis is home, where they are fighting to keep the team in town and show Stan Kroenke why he should take the new waterfront stadium instead of moving to Los Angeles.

Yeah, I’m going Rams.

—-My extra stuff…

I’ll make New England -7 my 6-star play. Last season I ended up with 0 stars.
I’ll make Houston +1 over Kansas City my Special Non-Counting Bonus Pick. Last season I ended up 6-10-1 in my SNCBPs.

[kayfabe]

Let's play again this week, shall we? After all Fezzik went 7-1 ATS last week in
games in which his own line was off by two or more points from what Vegas had.
To refresh, those games were --

GreenBay -7.0 (WIN)
NYJETS -3.0 (WIN)
BUFF +2.5 (WIN)
Miami -4.0 (WIN)
Tenn +3.0 (WIN)
Cincy -3.5 (WIN)
DALLAS -5.5 (LOSS)
ATLANTA +2.5 (WIN)

Now did those games match up to what he ultimately gave out to his customers? For
the most part, YES. So I'm guessing he made a bunch of money last week.
He gave out ATLANTA +3(W), Minny +3(L), JAX +3(L), TENN +3(W), GrnBay -6(W),
Miami -2.5(W), HOUSTON +1(L), JETS -3(W).

So Atlanta, Tennessee, GreenBay, Miami, Jets all common between his power
ratings and customer plays. A solid 5-0 right out of the gate.

(Then again apparently everybody did well last week gambling-wise; Vegas had
arguably the worst opening week they've ever had in the NFL. And they lost
especially big on the Rams/Hawks. More people on Seattle but way bigger
money on the Rams) --

http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/136 ... nfl-sunday

So for week #2 Fezzik's power ratings were posted tonight and are here --

http://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/9/t/1300885.aspx#0

I'll spare everybody the details except to say same rules as last week, using
The Gold Sheet home field advantage numbers with the power ratings.

KNC vs. Den: 3.0 - 3.5 + 3 ==> KanCty by 2.5 (actual spread: 3.0, off by 0.5)
CAR vs. Hou: 0.0 --2.0 + 3 ==> Caroln by 5.0 (actual spread: 3.0, off by 2.0)
NOR vs. Tam: -1.5 --7.5 + 3 ==> NewOrl by 9.0 (actual spread: 9.5, off by 0.5)
PIT vs. Sfo: 1.0 --2.0 + 3 ==> Pittsb by 6.0 (actual spread: 6.0, off by 0.0)
MIN vs. Det: -2.0 - 0.0 + 3 ==> Minnes by 1.0 (actual spread: 3.0, off by 2.0)
BUF vs. Nwe: 2.0 - 6.0 + 3 ==> NewEng by 1.0 (actual spread: 1.0, off by 0.0)
CHI vs. Ari: -5.5 - 0.5 + 2 ==> Arizna by 4.0 (actual spread: 2.0, off by 2.0)
CLE vs. Ten: -5.0 --2.5 + 3 ==> Tennse by 0.5 (actual spread: 2.0, off by 2.5)
CIN vs. Sdg: 3.0 - 1.0 + 3 ==> CincyB by 5.0 (actual spread: 3.0, off by 2.0)
WAS vs. Stl: -6.0 - 0.0 + 2 ==> STRams by 4.0 (actual spread 3.5, off by 0.5)
NYG vs Atl: -3.5 - 0.0 + 2 ==> Atlant by 1.5 (actual spread 2.5, off by 4.0)
OAK vs. Bal: -7.0 - 2.0 + 2 ==> Baltmr by 7.0 (actual spread 5.5, off by 1.5)
JAC vs. Mia: -7.5 - 2.0 + 2 ==> MiamiD by 7.5 (actual spread 6.0, off by 1.5)
PHI vs. Dal: 3.0 - 2.0 + 3 ==> Philly by 4.0 (actual spread 5.0, off by 1.0)
GNB vs. Sea: 6.0 - 5.0 + 4 ==> GreenB by 5.0 (actual spread 3.5, off by 1.5)
IND vs. Nyj: 3.0 --1.0 + 3 ==> Indian by 7.0 (actual spread 7.0, off by 0.0)

So that means there's six plays this week (again, for entertainment purposes only) --

CAROLINA -3.0 (should be -5.0)
DETROIT +3.0 (should be +1.0)
ARIZONA -2.0 (should be -4.0)
TENNESSEE +2.0 (should be -0.5)
CINCY -3.0 (should be -5.0)
ATLANTA +2.5 (should be -1.5)

We'll see if there's the same success rate and correlation to client picks as last week...