[aeneas1]

- patriots 3rd ranked offense vs texans 7 ranked defense.
- patriots 1st ranked defense vs texans 28th ranked offense.

patriots are currently 16 point favorites - since the first super bowl was played in 1966, 51 years ago, there have only been 3 postseason spreads of 16 points or more:

1998 - min 16.5 point favorites vs ari, divisional round, won 41-21, covered.
1994 - sfo 19 point favorites vs sdg, super bowl 29, won 49-26, covered
1968 - bal 18 point favorites vs nyj, super bowl 3, lost 7-16, did not cover

patriots 6-2 at home, texans 2-6 on the road. patriots faced least toughest schedule of all teams in 2016, texans faced the 13th toughest. teams met once in 2016, in new england, patriots won 27-0 with brisset at qb.

---------------------------------

- cowboys 5th ranked offense vs packers 27th ranked defense.
- cowboys 8th ranked defense vs packers 4th ranked offense.

the 38-13 whipping the packers gave the giants this weekend made it 5 consecutive games in which the packers offense has scored 30 or more points - for the 5 game stretch the packers offense has averaged 35 points per game. perhaps even more impressive, three of the five games were against the vikes 5th ranked defense, the seahawks 3rd ranked defense, and the giants 2nd ranked defense in offensive points allowed. wow. all told, the packers offense has scored 175 points in their last five games, which is just 39 fewer points than what the rams offense scored all year.

prescott will be the 13th rookie qb to start a postseason game since the 2000 season - 6 of the 12 won their first postseason game, 6 lost... those that played their first postseason game at home, which will be the case for prescott, were 3-2, those who played their first postseason game on the road were 3-4. of the 6 that won their first game, only 2 won in the next round - none reached the super bowl.

cowboys 7-1 at home, packers 4-4 on the road. cowboys faced the 21st toughest schedule, the packers the 17th toughest. teams met once in 2016, in dallas, cowboys won 30-16, prescott threw for 3 tds and a 117.4 qb rating. dallas currently 4 point home favorites.

---------------------------------

- falcons 1st ranked offense vs seahawks 3rd ranked defense.
- falcons 29th ranked defense vs seahawks 14th ranked offense.

will the falcons abysmal defense sink their high-flying offense in the postseason, as the 2000 rams abysmal defense sunk their high-flying offense in the postseason? the falcons have the highest ranked scoring offense among postseason teams, and the lowest ranked defense. also worth keeping an eye on, the falcons only faced 3 defenses ranked in the top 10 in offensive points allowed in 2016, moreover they faced a lot of very bad defenses. all told, the average ranking of the defenses they faced in 2016, in offensive points allowed, was 20th. against the the 3 teams they faced with top 10 defenses the falcons were 1-2, and averaged 25 offensive points per game. against their other opponents, teams without top 10 defenses, the falcons were 10-3 and averaged 33.3 offensive points per game.

the seahawks finished the year ranked 14th in offensive scoring, but in their last 6 games, including their 26-6 playoff dusting of the lions, they've averaged 26 offensive points per game, a 6th ranking equivalent, impressive considering they averaged just 20 per game through the first 11, a 23rd ranking equivalent.

falcons 5-3 at home, seahawks 3-4-1 on the road. falcons faced 18th toughest schedule, seahawks faced the 30th. teams met once in 2016, in seattle, seahawks won 26-24, as the falcons gained their 4th fewest yards of the season. atlanta currently 4.5 home favorites.

---------------------------------

chiefs 17th ranked offense vs steelers 11th ranked defense.
chiefs 6th ranked defense vs steelers 10th ranked offense.

the chiefs have advanced to the postseason 8 times since 1994, and last year was the first time they didn't get bounced in the first round, can they make it 2 years in a row? teams met once in 2016, in pittsburgh, steelers won 43-14, the chiefs worse loss margin since 2011, as the steelers completely shut down smith's favorite target, te kelce, who gained just 23 yards on 8 targets.

chiefs 6-2 at home, steelers 5-3 on the road. chiefs faced 8th toughest schedule, steelers faced the 14th. chiefs currently 1 point home favorites.

[snackdaddy]

I know the Cowboys have the good record, offensive line, running back and home field, but it would be hard to count out Aaron Rogers the way he's playing right now.

Falcons/seahags should be an interesting matchup. I'd like to see what Shanahan can dial up as far as ways to attack the hags defense.

Patriots shouldn't get much resistance from the Texans. I don't see that one as close.

Steeler/Chiefs should be a good one. Chiefs have some good cover guys. Steelers have the good receivers and quarterback. Something's gotta give there.

[Neil039]

This might be great week of football fans get to watch. Thanks for the post @aeneas1

[aeneas1]

This might be great week of football fans get to watch. Thanks for the post @aeneas1

agree, altho i thoroughly enjoyed the first round....

[Elvis]

[aeneas1]

looks like the patriots / texans spread is going to close at the whopping 16, thought it might shrink a point or two, because 16 is so huge.... the falcons / seahawks spread has seen movement during the week, from -4.5 falcons to -6, cowboys were -4 vs packers, now -4.5, chiefs still 1 point home favorites vs steelers.

[snackdaddy]

I can see 3 of the 4 games being close. But its hard to imagine the Texans giving the Patriots much resistance.

I know the Cowboys have the glitzy record and home field throughout, but I keep getting the sense that they might be a paper tiger. Aaron Rogers is playing as well as he ever has. The Giants had a good secondary but they way scrambles its impossible to cover a receiver that long. I wouldn't be shocked to see Green Bay win this one if their defense comes to play. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked to see them in the Superbowl the way Rogers is playing.

I like the Falcons and that offense, but their defense is scary. The seahags don't have a great offense but they're plenty capable of putting up points against a lesser defense. And their defense is still pretty good.

[Elvis]

Got me wondering how close that NE spread was to the biggest in playoff history and found this:

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/21 ... s-patriots

January 10, 2017
THE LONGEST NFL PLAYOFF ODDS EVER

The NFL's Wild Card weekend featured its fair share of one-sided affairs, but this week's slate may have one of the most inequitable affairs in league history. The Patriots, the top seed in the AFC and arguably the best team in the league, have drawn the J.J. Watt-less Texans, a plucky but offensively challenged opponent out of the woeful AFC South. The matchup appears to so heavily favor New England that Las Vegas has placed a 15 1/2-point spread on the game as of Tuesday, one of the largest in postseason history.

Yet, as massive as that figure looks at present (late betting can move the line prior to kickoff), it falls just outside the very largest playoff spreads on record.

With that in mind, which teams faced the longest odds in NFL postseason history? (All spreads come from Pro Football Reference's database.)

T-19. 1997 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Game: Divisional round at Green Bay Packers
Spread: 13.0

Before Jon Gruden arrived to straighten out a talented but often underperforming Buccaneers franchise, the team found occasional success in the late 1990s in the NFC Central division. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, that division also contained the Packers during Brett Favre's MVP years. Worse, when the two squads met in the playoffs, the temperatures at Lambeau Field fell into the 20-degree range. That proved to be too much for the Florida-based Bucs to handle.

Covered? No (21-7 Packers)

T-19. 1989 Denver Broncos
Game: Super Bowl XXIV vs. San Francisco 49ers
Spread: 13.0

More than any other of John Elway's losses, the Broncos defeat in Super Bowl XXIV cemented his early career reputation as a championship choke artist. While Denver's defense did him no favors against one of Joe Montana's best 49ers squads, Elway threw two interceptions and fumbled twice. His only score came on a late-game scramble, providing fodder for countless pundits and one hilarious Simpsons sketch.



Covered? No (55-10 49ers)

T-12. 2011 Denver Broncos
Game: Divisional round at New England Patriots
Spread: 13.5

While Elway needed two championships in the final years of his career to change his narrative, Tim Tebow's came fully formed courtesy of two collegiate national titles at Florida. During his second year in the pros, the former Gator quarterback led the Broncos to the playoffs and miraculously pulled off an upset over the heavily-favored Steelers in the wild-card round. While some in Denver thought the prodigal son could work his magic a second time against the Patriots, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick turned it into a laugher.

Covered? No (45-10 Patriots)

T-12. 2007 Jacksonville Jaguars
Game: Divisional round at New England Patriots
Spread: 13.5

Probably the best Jacksonville team of the 21st century, the 2007 Jaguars drove versatile running back Maurice Jones-Drew to a wild-card berth and a first-round win over the favored Steelers. Like many Cinderella stories, they ran into a buzz saw in the form of the undefeated Patriots. However, unlike most underdogs facing New England, they made the fight respectable.

Covered? Yes (31-20 Patriots)

T-12. 1998 Miami Dolphins
Game: Divisional round at Denver Broncos
Spread: 13.5

By '98, the Dolphins found themselves running on fumes. Their future Hall of Fame quarterback, Dan Marino, had seen his health deteriorate while the roster around him featured few field-tilting weapons. When they arrived in Denver to face the defending-champion Broncos, most believed Miami couldn't muster an upset. They were right.

Covered? No (38-3 Broncos)

T-12. 1995 Pittsburgh Steelers
Game: Super Bowl XXX vs. Dallas Cowboys
Spread: 13.5

In a vacuum, the Steelers of the mid-1990s looked more than capable of winning a championship. They possessed a fearsome defense and a better-than-remembered offense behind quarterback Neil O'Donnell and running back Bam Morris. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, the NFC produced the triplets-era Cowboys. Still, the Steelers kept it close until Larry Brown's interception and Dallas' subsequent score put the game away for good.

Covered? Yes (27-17 Cowboys)

T-12. 1995 Philadelphia Eagles
Game: Divisional round at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: 13.5

Before the 1995 Cowboys met the Steelers in Super Bowl XXX, they hosted their NFC East-rival Eagles in the divisional round. Philadelphia still had Randall Cunningham under center, though the once physics-breaking signal-caller had lost much of the athleticism that made him a superstar during the late 1980s and early '90s. The Eagles also didn't have defensive stalwarts Reggie White and Jerome Brown anymore. They didn't stand a chance against the eventual champions.

Covered? No (30-11 Cowboys)

T-12. 1993 Green Bay Packers
Game: Divisional round at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: 13.5

Before Favre began his streak of MVP awards, the Packers entered the playoffs in '93 as newcomers with minimal expectations. After all, the franchise hadn't reached the postseason in over a decade at that point. A vastly superior Dallas team built a massive lead by the halftime, but a late push by Green Bay resulted in a backdoor cover.

Covered? Yes (27-17 Cowboys)

T-12. 1967 Oakland Raiders
Game: Super Bowl II vs. Green Bay Packers
Spread: 13.5

In Vince Lombardi's final game as the Packers head coach, his team defended its Super Bowl title against a frisky Raiders squad molding under the watchful eye of general manager Al Davis. While this Green Bay squad had lost some of its edge with age, it still played the hard-nosed style of football Lombardi made famous. The Pack never trailed in Super Bowl II.

Covered? No (33-14 Packers)

T-6. 2007 San Diego Chargers
Game: AFC title game at New England Patriots
Spread: 14.0

In a different world, the '07 Chargers might have become the team to upset the undefeated Patriots, not the Giants. Philip Rivers, LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates formed one of the league's premier quarterback-tailback-receiver triads, and when healthy, they had the ability to challenge any defense. However, Tomlinson practically didn't play in the AFC title game due to a knee issue while Rivers toughed out a torn knee ligament of his own. Meanwhile, Gates struggled through a dislocated toe. Even so, San Diego kept New England within a possession until the fourth quarter.

Covered? Yes (21-12 Patriots)

T-6. 2001 New England Patriots
Game: Super Bowl XXXVI vs. St. Louis Rams
Spread: 14.0

Before they became the NFL's evil empire, the Pats were plucky upstarts taking on the "Greatest Show on Turf" Rams for a championship. Brady, then a first-year starter, went toe to toe with the league MVP Kurt Warner in one of the greatest Super Bowls in NFL history. A clutch kick from Adam Vinatieri in the closing seconds helped New England pull off the unthinkable.

Covered? Yes (20-17 Patriots)

T-6. 1999 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Game: NFC title game at St. Louis Rams
Spread: 14.0

Prior to the Patriots playing David to the Rams' Goliath, St. Louis became an unlikely powerhouse in 1999. That proved unfortunate for the Buccaneers, who had the second-best record in the conference. Tampa Bay had a championship defense and managed to keep its NFC Championship opponent largely off the scoreboard. Still, the Rams had Warner at the controls while the Buccaneers had the inexperienced and forgettable Shaun King under center.

Covered? Yes (11-6 Rams)

T-6. 1996 New England Patriots
Game: Super Bowl XXXI vs. Green Bay Packers
Spread: 14.0

When the Patriots arrived at Super Bowl XXXI, they came armed with future Hall of Fame coach Bill Parcells, future Hall of Fame tailback Curtis Martin, and talented young gunslinger Drew Bledsoe. However, the NFC-champion Packers possessed the league's No. 1 offense and defense as well as Favre, its MVP. New England established a brief lead at the end of the first quarter, but the game devolved into a one-sided affair in favor of Green Bay soon thereafter.

Covered: Push (35-21 Packers)

T-6. 1991 Detroit Lions
Game: NFC title game at Washington
Spread: 14.0

The Lions have enjoyed little postseason success during the Super Bowl era, but they reached the conference championship during the 1991 season. Though viewed as massive underdogs, Detroit did have one of the league's true X-factors in running back Barry Sanders. Despite Sanders' individual brilliance, he only managed 59 yards from scrimmage against Washington, which went on to win the Super Bowl two weeks later.

Covered? No (41-10 Washington)

T-6. 1966 Kansas City Chiefs
Game: Super Bowl I vs. Green Bay Packers
Spread: 14.0

In the first annual meeting of the soon-to-be-merged NFL and AFL, Hank Stram's Chiefs drew the Lombardi-era Packers. At the time, conventional wisdom dictated that the AFL had inferior talent and coaching. Though the Jets shattered this belief a few years later, the Kansas City offered little resistance to the team of the 1960s.

Covered? No (35-10 Packers)

5. 1978 Atlanta Falcons
Game: Divisional round at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: 15.0

The Falcons were still a relatively new franchise when they qualified for their first postseason berth in 1978. Led by former No. 1 overall pick Steve Bartkowski, the team narrowly won a Wild Card matchup with the Eagles on Christmas Eve. That performance did little to encourage linemakers about Atlanta's chances against the defending-champion Cowboys. Still, the Falcons nearly pulled off the upset, not yielding the winning score until the fourth quarter.

Covered? Yes (27-20 Cowboys)

4. 1994 Chicago Bears
Game: Divisional round at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: 15.5

The 1990s proved to be a lost decade for the Bears, but they did manage to slip into the postseason as the fourth team out of the NFC Central. Their surprise playoff berth even led to an upset over the division-rival Vikings in the first round. Chicago's luck didn't last much longer, though, ending in a lopsided defeat to the eventual Super Bowl-champion 49ers.

Covered? No (44-15 49ers)

3. 1998 Arizona Cardinals
Game: Divisional round at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: 16.5

Before the 2016 Lions elevated the fourth-quarter comeback to an art form, the 1998 Cardinals gave fans their fair share of cardiac arrests. A single score decided 10 of their regular-season games that season, largely due to the up-and-down performance of quarterback Jake Plummer. Still, the team managed to reach the divisional round to take on the record-setting Vikings. Minnesota's title hopes were eventually derailed, but not before embarrassing visiting Arizona.

Covered? No (41-21 Vikings)

2. 1968 New York Jets
Game: Super Bowl III vs. Baltimore Colts
Spread: 18.0

The first of many guarantees in American sports history, quarterback Joe Namath promised that his AFL-champion Jets would not only put up a fight against the heavily-favored Colts, but they would in fact win the ballgame. After two Super Bowls that resulted in landslide victories for the NFL, Namath's words came across as brash and irreverent. In the end, Broadway Joe proved prescient. New York never trailed at any point during the game.

Covered? Yes (16-7 Jets)

1. 1994 San Diego Chargers
Game: Super Bowl XXIX vs. San Francisco 49ers
Spread: 19.0

In '94, the Chargers appeared to be a team on the rise. Headed by future Hall of Famer Junior Seau on defense and Pro Bowler Natrone Means on offense, they somewhat surprisingly won the AFC. Meanwhile, the 49ers had the burden of expectations weighing them down. Head coach George Seifert and quarterback Steve Young wanted desperately to escape the shadows of predecessors Bill Walsh and Joe Montana respectively. Though Seifert had guided San Francisco to a championship four years earlier, most viewed him as a caretaker for what remained Walsh's team. At the same time, Young had not won a title as the starter. That finally changed in Super Bowl XXIX, with the signal-caller tossing six touchdowns in a one-sided affair.

Covered? No (49-26 49ers)

[CarolinaRam]

My main concern is ATL needs to beat the Hags! If the Hags win then they will host the NFC Championship game if The Pack beats Dallas. They would end up in the SB which will make me puke!! I hate the Hags and their cheerleader boy coach. I hope it is ATL vs GB..but if ATL losses I have to pull for Dallas.

[aeneas1]

Got me wondering how close that NE spread was to the biggest in playoff history and found this:

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/21 ... s-patriots

yeah, posted the same in one of the playoff threads from last week, to show just how big a spread 16 was, pulled the info from pro football reference's query tool, here's a summary, since 1960... teams may not always cover the huge spread (12-12-1 since 1960) but they usually win straight up (21-5)...