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 by Elvis
7 years 5 months ago
 Total posts:   38885  
 Joined:  Mar 28 2015
United States of America   Los Angeles
Administrator

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/12/30/nfl- ... day-primer

NFL Black Monday: What to Expect as the Carousel Spins

Three teams already have sideline vacancies. Who’s next? Here’s a primer on what to watch for as Week 17 concludes, including a separation in San Diego, postseason or bust in Detroit and a potential rare coaching trade

by Albert Breer

Black Monday isn’t what it used to be.

The Rams and Jaguars are already in the thick of research to find new coaches. The Bills are getting their search started. And the 2016 season doesn’t even end for another couple days.

So some of the drama that usually lurks on the final Sunday and into Monday morning won’t be there the way it usually is.

But history says we’re not done yet. There have been a staggering 45 coaching changes over over the past six years, with no less than seven in any single year over that stretch. That number—45—is even crazier when you consider 25 of the league’s 32 teams have accounted for all the changes.

Think that gives the seven clubs that have remained stable (Packers, Patriots, Ravens, Saints, Seahawks, Steelers, Bengals) an edge?

Some of the usual suspects will be back on the block again next week. Some, like the Bills and Jags—each looking for their fourth coach over that six-year stretch—are already there. It won’t lack drama or intrigue. So here, as the carousel starts to spin, and following weeks of conversations with people in front offices and on coaching staffs on these matters, are some things to keep an eye on …

THREE THINGS TO WATCH FOR

1. Postseason movement isn’t always only caused by terminations. Could we see a retirement or two? While neither has lent validity to the idea first-hand, there continues to be speculation in league circles about whether Arizona’s Bruce Arians or Denver’s Gary Kubiak could walk away in the near future. Both had health issues this year, and both had 2015 seasons that rubber-stamp their legacies as head coaches. Arians is 64; Kubiak is 55. If either of those jobs were to open up, they’d be considered top-of-the-NFL type positions. And along those lines, there also have been questions about whether Packers GM Ted Thompson could retire after this season, with Eliot Wolf a potential heir to the throne his dad, Ron, once held.

2. Would the Saints trade Sean Payton a year after signing him to a five-year, $45 million contract extension? I know from having talked to Payton that he values living in New Orleans and being a short flight away from watching his son play high school football in Dallas. But the potential lure of California (where his daughter is in college) has come up before. That could put the Rams in play again, as they would’ve been if they’d had an opening last year. And I wouldn’t rule out the Rams doing a deal, provided they’re comfortable that Payton still has the drive he had in rebuilding the Saints. But remember, L.A. doesn’t have a ton to give after last year’s trade for Jared Goff, and the Rams sort of went down that high-profile road before with Jeff Fisher. My sense is the Saints, after 11 years with Payton, would listen if another team came calling.

3. What do the Colts do? This will be the second straight year that Indianapolis has failed to make the playoffs, and the Texans and Titans both appear to be ascending in what has been a soft AFC South. That said, I don’t think owner Jim Irsay cuts the cord with Chuck Pagano and Ryan Grigson. There are three years remaining on their contracts, and the team’s history suggests that the Colts would be hesitant to eat all that dough in order to make a change, plus Grigson put into motion a renewed focus on making the team younger this year.

THREE THINGS THAT ARE ASSUMED

1. A divorce in San Diego. Chargers coach Mike McCoy survived last year, and got a one-year extension in the process to ensure he wouldn’t be a lame duck in 2016. The Chargers will finish with double-digit losses for the second straight season. Now, McCoy has dealt with horrific injury luck and the looming presence of a potential move to L.A. two years in a row, so it’s not like this is all on him. And I think the line of teams waiting to hire him as a coordinator are proof that the Bolts should think hard about this before pulling the trigger. But there is a feeling in league circles that this one is a fait accompli. Potential mitigating factor: If the Chargers are moving, it’d be tough to run a proper coaching search. Would that stop the Spanos family from making a change? Probably not.

2. The Niners are going to be making changes. The brass has already begun looking at every facet of its operation to determine what has gone so terribly wrong over the past three years. Chances are, the fix will start with a new general manager to take Trent Baalke’s place. (Eliot Wolf’s name has been bandied about here, too.) The Niners like coach Chip Kelly and what he’s done through a trying year, but his future likely won’t be determined until the GM situation is sorted out. Is that fair? Kelly was handed a bottom-three roster and the team has continued to fight, so the fair thing would be to let him find a quarterback. The truth is, it’d look a little ridiculous to drop the hammer considering the circumstances, and it wouldn’t make anyone look good to have consecutive head coach one-and-dones. But the NFL isn’t a fair place, and this will likely be a different-looking organization in 2017.

3. Something has to happen in Cincinnati. Marvin Lewis’ contract expires after 2017. Three years in a row he’s gotten a one-year extension. He’s been adamant over the past few weeks that he’s not retiring. So do the Bengals give him another one-year deal? Do they extend him long-term? Last year Lewis and Hue Jackson discussed a potential succession plan, before Lewis’ OC left for Cleveland, so it’s not as if he hasn’t contemplated walking away. Next year would be Lewis’ 15th as Bengals coach.

THREE THINGS THAT GAMES COULD INFLUENCE

1. Playoffs or bust for Caldwell? Most people would agree that Jim Caldwell has assembled a rock-solid staff and generally done a good job since taking over in Detroit in 2014. If the Lions win Sunday, they’ll be playoff-bound for the second time in three years, the first such stretch since the ’90s. If they lose? Well, there are least some on staff who feel uneasy about their futures. By all accounts Caldwell and GM Bob Quinn have forged a great working relationship. But sometimes a new GM wants his own guy. And because 2017 is the final year of Caldwell’s contract, and someone like Quinn’s former staffmate Josh McDaniels might be off the market after this January, it seems like this would be the time for Quinn to decide if Caldwell’s the coach to whom he wants to hitch his future.

2. Bye-week interviews. Three offensive coordinators figure to be in play for a number of places—McDaniels, Atlanta’s Kyle Shanahan and Dallas’ Scott Linehan. It’s likely all three will have byes next week and thus have the chance to interview. What’s less certain is when any of the three will be available to actually hire. Would a team be willing to wait until after the Super Bowl to poach one of them? The Falcons—who waited for Dan Quinn two years ago—would be one example of the benefit of showing patience. After all, if these are viewed as 10-year decisions for franchises, what’s a couple weeks?

3. Lasting impression in Chicago and Minnesota. The Vikings and Bears played Halloween night at Soldier Field. In the time since, the rivals are a collective 3-12. They play again Sunday in Minneapolis. The future for both teams is interesting. Speculation about John Fox’s job status has run rampant the past couple months. The Vikings could be looking at some more subtle changes in the wake of their second-half collapse. In both cases, you get the feeling the final impression the team leaves will mean something.

 by RamsFanSince82
7 years 5 months ago
 Total posts:   5851  
 Joined:  Aug 20 2015
United States of America   So. Cal.
Hall of Fame

Here's another similar article.



Blanket Coverage: Examining ideal coaching fits for NFL teams ahead of Black Monday

Quickly
With Black Monday fast approaching, let’s take a look at the NFL head coaching jobs that will most likely be open this time next week (and the positions that are already open...) and select our dream picks for each team.

’Tis the season for coaching and regime changes around the NFL. We’ve already seen the Rams, Jaguars and Bills get a jumpstart on the job market by dumping their coaches; there will surely be more to follow, accompanied by the musical chairs of coaching interviews and hirings.
With that in mind, let’s play a little fantasy off-season football. What follows are the seven most likely head coaching openings along with our dream fits from the pool of likely available coaches.

Already open
Los Angeles Rams

After five straight losing seasons under Jeff Fisher (bottoming out with this 4–11-and-counting campaign), the Rams finally fired him—a choice they should have made two years ago. Complicating this situation is the fact that GM Les Snead is still running personnel, but team president Kevin Demoff said Snead’s future has not yet been determined. Rookie quarterback Jared Goff may get mixed reviews, but candidates will be enticed by the location, deep pockets and owner Stan Kroenke, who is fairly hands off.

Best fit: Sean Payton, current head coach of the Saints. He’s had a successful 11-year run with the Saints (including a Super Bowl win), but after three-straight losing seasons, plus Drew Brees nearing the end of his contract/career, instability with the ownership and a team mired in salary-cap hell, it’s a good time for Payton to move on and start fresh. The question is, what kind of compensation would the Saints want in return? After the Goff trade, the Rams have limited draft resources, but perhaps second-round picks the next two years could do the deal. As an added bonus for Payton, he could fire defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, who pointed the finger at Payton in the bounty scandal that cost Payton a year on the sidelines and millions in salary.

Jacksonville Jaguars

After three-plus seasons and a 14–48 record, the Jaguars moved on from Gus Bradley and have reportedly interviewed former Giants and Jaguars coach Tom Coughlin for the head coaching position. This job is promising because the team features young talent on both sides of the ball, an owner with patience and loads of cap space. But the QB position needs to be fixed, as Blake Bortles’s future is up in the air.

Best fit: Josh McDaniels, OC, Patriots. McDaniels, the former Broncos coach, and Jaguars GM David Caldwell were teammates in college at John Carroll. Caldwell is well liked by the ownership in Jacksonville and has done a good job upgrading the roster and fixing a financial mess. Caldwell also worked in Atlanta under Thomas Dimitroff, who previously was with the Patriots, so they’ll see things in similar terms. Bortles will be entering the final year of his contract if the team doesn’t pick up the fifth-year option, and McDaniels could bring Jimmy Garoppolo with him in a trade, or wait for his free agency after 2017.

Buffalo Bills

This job could be viewed as Browns-level toxic because owner Terry Pegula has shown he has no idea what he’s doing in the NFL and NHL (Sabres). If Pegula were smart (new owners take a while to smarten up), he would clean house and hire a football czar to fix this mess. But that won’t happen—sure, he axed Rex Ryan already, but they kept GM Doug Whaley.

Best fit: Anthony Lynn, interim coach, Bills. The way things are currently constituted, and it doesn’t appear the situation will change, the Bills are going to have a hard time convincing someone to come in and serve under Whaley, who will have a strong hand in selecting his third coach in five seasons. Current Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, who directed the Bills defense before Ryan was named head coach, would be a top outside candidate.

Should be open
San Diego Chargers

Even though the Chargers, despite suffering some brutal injuries this season, have been able to remain in every game, it’s still hard to see the team retaining coach Mike McCoy after back-to-back losing seasons, including Saturday’s loss to the winless Browns. The team has a cloudy future with the messy issue of relocation lingering, but working with QB Philip Rivers will be attractive to anyone.

Best fit: Dave Toub, special teams coordinator, Chiefs
The Chargers have already gone the offensive coordinator route with Norv Turner and Mike McCoy, and that hasn’t worked. Going with a defensive coordinator like Sean McDermott or Jim Schwartz runs the risk of negatively affecting Rivers. And would OCs Frank Reich or Ken Whisenhunt be all that different from McCoy? It’s time to go in a different direction and take the league’s best special teams coach. Maybe he likes the schemes on both sides of the ball and keeps the status quo, but Toub knows how to manage different personalities. No NFL coach has to deal with as many changes on the fly as a special teams coach.

Could be open
Cincinnati Bengals

There is speculation that Marvin Lewis’s 14th season with the Bengals could be his last after his first losing season in six years and an 0–7 postseason record. It could be retirement, as former Redskins TE Chris Cooley reported, or Lewis could be bumped up to a front office role.

Best fit: Paul Guenther, DC, Bengals. Cincinnati doesn’t tons of change under owner Mike Brown because it costs money, and this move would provide continuity. There are plenty of in-house candidates (Kevin Coyle, Jim Haslett) to take over for Guenther. Dolphins defensive coordinator Vance Joseph would be a top candidate but the Bengals wouldn’t let him out of his contract when Gary Kubiak wanted Joseph as his coordinator in Denver, and there might be some hard feelings there.

New York Jets

Reports are starting to surface that Todd Bowles is safe, and he should be. The Jets are in the midst of an entire rebuild, and the deficiencies are in the personnel, not the coaching.
Best fit: Bowles should be retained. Of course, things won’t get much better next year, but people don’t realize the size of this personnel mess.

Detroit Lions

If the Lions lose their third-straight game and miss the playoffs, there will be a lot of heat for Detroit to fire Jim Caldwell. I’m not his biggest fan, but he’s assembled a good staff and the team has played above its ability for much of the season.

Best fit: Caldwell should be retained. It’s very tempting to oust Caldwell and insert a Patriots coordinator (Josh McDaniels or Matt Patricia) to work with GM Bob Quinn, a former New England personnel executive, but the Lions are going in the right direction.

Indianapolis Colts

Owner Jim Irsay should have blown up the GM Ryan Grigson-coach Chuck Pagano tandem after last season (or at least just Grigson), but instead he signed them to contract extensions and the team marginally improved. Will Irsay swallow all that money? Doubt it. But he should.
Best fit: Likely the status quo for one more season... But if Irsay were smart, he’d hire Chiefs VP of player personnel Chris Ballard and let him figure out who should be the coach, with one favorite being Chiefs ST coordinator Dave Toub. That would be a good start at salvaging the rest of Andrew Luck’s career.

New Orleans Saints

If the Saints decide to let Payton leave for another job, they’ll have plenty of in-house candidates to fill the spot, including coordinators Pete Carmichael and Dennis Allen, while giving the team continuity in figuring out how to deal with the end of Drew Brees’s career and the inevitable rebuilding period that will follow.
Best fit: Dennis Allen, DC, Saints. Carmichael has been there longer but this setup gives New Orleans the best chance to be successful the next couple of seasons.

 by Hacksaw
7 years 5 months ago
 Total posts:   24523  
 Joined:  Apr 15 2015
United States of America   AT THE BEACH
Moderator

As an added bonus for Payton, he could fire defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, who pointed the finger at Payton in the bounty scandal that cost Payton a year on the sidelines and millions in salary.


This would be a bad juju reason to take any job imo..

 by JackPMiller
7 years 5 months ago
 Total posts:   2729  
 Joined:  Sep 22 2016
United States of America   LA Coliseum
Superstar

I would be upset if we trade for Sean Payton. I feel he licked into Manning having a strong Super Bowl run, and then lucked into Drew Brees. I am not so sure that he fit being the guy to help Goff like Kyle Shanahan.

 by HighRoller
7 years 5 months ago
 Total posts:   291  
 Joined:  Oct 28 2016
United States of America   LA Coliseum
Rookie

JackPMiller wrote:I would be upset if we trade for Sean Payton. I feel he licked into Manning having a strong Super Bowl run, and then lucked into Drew Brees. I am not so sure that he fit being the guy to help Goff like Kyle Shanahan.


And then luck into Goff?

I am most interested in best available option. Tough argument the potential of Sean not being that best available. Saying any unproven coordinator over a proven young HC (yeah 53 is young in HCing years) is a better option needs to have a solid rebuttal. I also believe any coach who comes into SoCal will breath much new energy into his game.

Today, I am all in for Sean Peyton. Well, second rounder in. :P

 by Hacksaw
7 years 5 months ago
 Total posts:   24523  
 Joined:  Apr 15 2015
United States of America   AT THE BEACH
Moderator

JackPMiller wrote:I would be upset if we trade for Sean Payton. I feel he licked into Manning having a strong Super Bowl run, and then lucked into Drew Brees. I am not so sure that he fit being the guy to help Goff like Kyle Shanahan.

He stuck it to Williams pretty good too.
Now if GW actually threw him under the bus, I can see why SP might want to retaliate, but his open camera-hog joy was just nasty to see. imo
Still, he showed great spirit and he also got over on us.
Then we trade for him :?

Agreed that MS might be the better choice for Goff,, but still not sure about him being team front man compared to a gut like Peyton.

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36 posts Jun 17 2024