[PARAM]

(Sat: 4:30) LA Chargers (11-6) @ Houston (10-7) >>>> {LA -3} Weather: Domed

The Chargers have won 3 straight, 4 of their last 7 and 7 of their last 10. They're 3-5 vs teams with winning records. Houston has lost 2 of their last 3, 3 of their last 6 and 5 of their last 9. They're 1-5 vs teams with winning records. This is a tough one to call. I'm inclined to go with the dog at home but I feel Dicker the kicker wins it at the end.

(Sat: 8:00) Pittsburgh (10-7) @ Baltimore (12-5)>>>> {Balt - 9.5} Weather: Sunshine/Clouds 39/26

The Steelers were 10-3 and lost their last 4....ugly. They were 4-0 vs teams with winning records until they lost their last 4 vs teams with winning records. Baltimore has won 4 straight and 7 of their last 9. They're 9-3 vs teams with winning records. This matchup is always entertaining if you like hard hitting 70's-type football (I do). And then there's the Lamar factor. Potential 3 time MVP, 2-4 in the postseason. 4 TD passes, 0 TD runs, 5 Int in those 4 losses; 1 TD pass, 3 TD runs and 1 pick in the 2 wins. It's all on Lamar, fair or not. If he plays well, Pittsburgh is golfing next weekend. If he doesn't......the story goes on.

(Sun: 1:00) Denver (10-7) @ Buffalo (13-4)>>>> {Buffalo -8.5} Weather: Cloudy, 32/feels like 18
This game could be tricky. Rookie starting his first postseason game but he hasn't looked like a rookie lately. 21 TD, 6 Int, 2022 yards, 108.0 QB rating his last 8 games (5-3). But Denver is 2-6 vs winning teams and one of those 2 was vs KC's 2's. The Broncos have the #6 D in yards, #3 in points allowed. Buffalo seems primed for their first SB appearance in 31 years. They won't have to play KC until the CCG but they'll probably have to beat Baltimore to get there. And they'll definitely have to be prepared for anything with Denver.

(Sun: 4:30) Green Bay (11-6) @ Philadelphia (14-3)>>>>{Philly -4.5} Weather: Partly Cloudy 38/21

The Packers have lost 3 of their last 5 (3-5 vs .500+). They're banged up and have lost their deep threat, Christian Watson. Their best bet IMHO is Josh Jacobs, Josh Jacobs and more Josh Jacobs. But they have to score TDs. Hurts is coming off a concussion and I heard a stat saying QB's don't fair too well their first game back. Good thing they have Barkley and it will be interesting to see if they have a 3rd or 4th and 1, will they use the tush-push? If they do, Hurts is fine. If they don't, hmmmm. This is going to be a hard pull for Green Bay but if they're successful running the ball and play a clean game, there's a chance. They're gonna need to be + in the turnover edge. Perhaps the biggest question is, how is Love's groin?

(Sun: 8:00) Washington (12-5) @ Tampa (10-7)>>>>{Tampa -3}

The Commanders have won 5 straight but they've only faced one .500+ team in that span. Still, Daniels doesn't play like a rookie. He's dangerous and doesn't seem flustered by anything. They lost to Tampa in week 1 but like Bowles said, they aren't the same team they were then. The Bucs have won 6 of their last 7 (1 vs .500+). And Baker is on fire. 41 TDs and NFL high 16 picks (17-7; 1995 yds; 111.5 QB rating the last 7 games). Should be a great finale to the weekend.

Philly, Tampa, Rams win = Rams at Detroit; Tampa at Philly
Green Bay, Tampa, Rams win = Rams at Tampa; Green Bay at Detroit
Green Bay, Washington, Rams win = Rams vs Washington; Green Bay at Detroit
Philly, Washington, Rams win = Rams at Philly; Washington @ Detroit

My choice? Beat Minnesota and I don't care where we go.

Who do YOU like?

[snackdaddy]

My picks. LAC, BAL, Buffalo, Philly, Wash and LAR.

[Elvis]

I tend to lean towards the home teams and with two of them being 10 point favorites, give or take, not a terrible way to go.

It used to be with the top 2 seeds getting byes, the wildcard was kind of a free for all and then order would be more or less restored when the good teams got into action the following weeks.

But now with only 1 bye per conference, you have the 2 vs. 7 game which is generally not a great matchup. But the 3/6 and 4/5 are the same as it ever was so i guess it's not that different...

[Elvis]

BTW, if i've got this right, teams resting their starters last week were:

KC
Eagles
Rams
Bills
Texans (to some extent)

We'll see how they make out...

[PARAM]

I tend to lean towards the home teams and with two of them being 10 point favorites, give or take, not a terrible way to go.

It used to be with the top 2 seeds getting byes, the wildcard was kind of a free for all and then order would be more or less restored when the good teams got into action the following weeks.

But now with only 1 bye per conference, you have the 2 vs. 7 game which is generally not a great matchup. But the 3/6 and 4/5 are the same as it ever was so i guess it's not that different...

I'm looking at it from a betting perspective. 10 points is A LOT, especially in the postseason. While I wouldn't take Pittsburgh and the points, due to the way they've played lately, nor am I confident Lamar and Baltimore will blow them away, I'm intrigued by Denver with 10. And though the Chargers are playing well, that old unwritten rule, "never bet against the dog at home" keeps ringing in my ears. IMO, the Tampa/Washington game is a toss up. Green Bay is banged up and Philly is so strong, it would be hard to take the Packers. But I have my own unwritten rule having lived in the greater Philly area most of my life. "Never bet on or against the Eagles" . Most times I get screwed in either scenario.

[rams74]

BTW, if i've got this right, teams resting their starters last week were:

KC
Eagles
Rams
Bills
Texans (to some extent)

We'll see how they make out...

The only problem I have with resting starters in week 18 is when you're going to have a first-round bye anyway. Two weeks without playing can kill momentum, if you've got any.

The Lions didn't go that way, so I guess we'll just see if that affects the Chiefs or not.

[rams74]

Green Bay is banged up and Philly is so strong, it would be hard to take the Packers. But I have my own unwritten rule having lived in the greater Philly area most of my life. "Never bet on or against the Eagles" . Most times I get screwed in either scenario.

I'm taking the Packers, just got a feeling. Probably wrong. But it's not that hard when I'm not putting any money on them.

[Elvis]

If we're going by spreads, favorites have been covering a lot this year.

Probably take Houston and the points, won't be surprised at all if they win.
I would never give that many points but if you forced me: Baltimore
Take the points with Denver
Eagles, think there's a good chance they roll over GB but i'll be rooting for GB.
TB, home team by default but not much of an opinion on this one. If GB has somehow upset Phili when this kicks off, we'll all be rooting hard for WA.
Rams, pick 'em or give me points...

[Elvis]

The only problem I have with resting starters in week 18 is when you're going to have a first-round bye anyway. Two weeks without playing can kill momentum, if you've got any.

The Lions didn't go that way, so I guess we'll just see if that affects the Chiefs or not.

Chiefs is a little wild with the more than 2 week off but hard to doubt a team that's won 3 of the last 5 SBs.

Lions needed to try this week but could've rested week 17. If they win the SB, people will say it's smart to play your starters even when you don't need to. If they falter, people will say the opposite. But there are probably other factors in play too...

[Youngblood22]

Upset of the weekend, Denver beats Buffalo. I just have a feeling.