Rams Fans United - Los Angeles Rams Fan Discussion Forum

Using the ESPN Playoff Machine:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

If the Rams lose to the Jets but beat Seattle and AZ while AZ and Seattle win both of their non Rams games, the Rams win the division tied with Seattle at 10-7, Rams having beaten Seattle twice win the tie. AZ would be 9-8 in this scenario.

If the Rams beat the Jets and AZ and Seattle loses to MN but the Rams lose to Seattle the last week and Seattle and AZ win every other game not mentioned, the Playoff machine says the Rams would win the division tied with Seattle at 10-7. I'm not sure why the Rams would win the tie breaker in that scenario but that's what ESPN says.

So if it's right, in that 2nd scenario, the last game against Seattle wouldn't matter as far as the division is concerned...

I don't know what formula ESPN is using but this is what the NFL has listed as tie breaking procedure.

The following procedures will be used to break standings ties for postseason playoffs and to determine regular-season schedules.
Note: Tie games count as one-half win and one-half loss for both clubs

TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION
If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same
division finish with the best won-lost-tied percentage, the following
steps will be taken until a champion is determined:

TWO CLUBS
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games
between the clubs).

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.

4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the
conference.

5. Strength of victory in all games.

6. Strength of schedule in all games.

7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points
scored and points allowed in all games.

8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored
and points allowed in all games.

9. Best net points in common games.

10. Best net points in all games.

11. Best net touchdowns in all games.

12. Coin toss.


THREE-OR-MORE CLUBS
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after one-or-more clubs are
eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of two-club
format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club is eliminated
during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of three-club format.)
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games
among the clubs).

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the
division.

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.

4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the
conference.

5. Strength of victory in all games.

6. Strength of schedule in all games.

7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points
scored and points allowed in all games.

8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored
and points allowed in all games.

9. Best net points in common games.

10. Best net points in all games.

11. Best net touchdowns in all games.

12. Coin toss.

Rams 8-6 (3-1)(5-5) -28 Pt Diff.
Seattle 8-6 (3-2)(4-5) +2 Pt. Diff.

Rams have 2 division and conference games remaining (Arizona; Seattle), 1 vs AFC (NY Jets)
Seattle has 1 division, 3 conference games remaining (Minnesota, Chicago, LA Rams)

Applying those tie breaking procedures above, I can only come up with one way we win the division when we both finish at 10-7 with Seattle beating us. That's with a larger point differential. And that would take Seattle getting beat bad by Minnesota, squeaking by Chicago and beating us by a low number while we were beating the Jets and Arizona by a large number. We would have to make up more than 30 points in the next two weeks with enough cushion to cover a loss to Seattle. It could be done but man that's gonna be tough.

We could lose to the Jets, beat Arizona and Seattle and win the division, even if Seattle beat Minnesota and Chicago by virtue of head to head sweep. We could beat the Jets, lose to Arizona and beat Seattle and win the division if Arizona lost to either Carolina or San Francisco. I'm not sure how it would be if the Rams, Seattle and Arizona finish with the same record.

Of course I could be reading that tie breaking procedure wrong. I would love that. Somebody tell me what I've misread. ESPN doesn't usually screw up but .....

If we tie with Seattle at 10-7, with them losing to Vikings but beating us and we only losing to Seattle, then we’ll have the same division record.

So then it comes down to common games and we would be 7-5 and Seattle would be 6-6. Please check my math.

Opp Rwins Swins
AZ 1 2
SF 2 0
CHI 0 1
MINN 1 0
NE 1 1
JETS 1 1
BILLS 1 0
MIA 0 1
GB 0 0
DET 0 0


I think what this means is if Seattle loses to Vikings next week and we win our next 2 games, we clinch the west. And we’d only be playing for the 3rd playoff seed.

max wrote:If we tie with Seattle at 10-7, with them losing to Vikings but beating us and we only losing to Seattle, then we’ll have the same division record.

So then it comes down to common games and we would be 7-5 and Seattle would be 6-6. Please check my math.

Opp Rwins Swins
AZ 1 2
SF 2 0
CHI 0 1
MINN 1 0
NE 1 1
JETS 1 1
BILLS 1 0
MIA 0 1
GB 0 0
DET 0 0


I think what this means is if Seattle loses to Vikings next week and we win our next 2 games, we clinch the west. And we’d only be playing for the 3rd playoff seed.

Seattle has 1 win over SF , so it's 7 wins each

IMO its not so much a matter of the Rams probably not making it in. As I pointed out in another post, that is just half of the equation, the one the Rams can control. Just as important is the playoff seeding. Being #3 where they would be seeded should they simply win out is far far better than being the the number 4 seed.

Tampa has an easier schedule than the Rams and are likely to win out. They are currently tied with the Rams in terms of wins vs losses.

Wildcard round

2. Eagles vs Commanders
3. Rams vs GB
4. Tampa vs Vikings

Divisional round

1. Lions vs Rams
2. Eagles vs Vikings

I'd rather face the Lions in a Dome than the Eagles in a snowy open stadium. The Rams match up better with the Lions than Philly.

NFC Championship

Rams (at SoFi) vs the Vikings

If the Rams are the 4th seed they would face the Vikings at home. Win that and if is #3 and Tampa beats GB which is possible, then the Rams would travel to Philly to face the Eagles in the snow, not the best matchup. So yeah seeding matters. In 2021 the 49ers did the heavy lifting in the playoffs as the top wildcard. At #3 division winner the Rams could benefit by having the Vikings do likewise this year.

This is the way I'm looking at it. At 3 seed the Rams could potentially play the NFC Championship game at SoFi. No matter what the Rams will travel in the division round. Better to Detroit than Philly IMO.

At #4:

IMO it would come down to hoping that GB beats Tampa which could happen. So then they would travel to Philly and they are built to play in the snow. The Rams would then face the Vikings in the Wildcard round.

PARAM wrote:Seattle has 1 win over SF , so it's 7 wins each

Thx.

So then it goes to conference record. I think ours is better. But it will be same if we lose to Seattle and they lose to Vikings.

I found this…
strength of victory (the composite record of teams defeated).

So it would come down to the record of the teams we beat vs the record of the teams Seattle beat.

I think beating Vikings and Bills gives us the edge.

There are 3 games left for everyone. Tiebreakers will change depending on the outcome of each game.

AZ has CAR, LAR and SF left to play.
Sea has MN, Chi and LAR left to play
Rams have NYJ, AZ and SEA left to play.

Obviously because the Rams, Cards and Seahawks have games with each other left to play, there won't be a scenario where all 3 teams win out. If one wins out they will have a good path to the playoffs. Right now I would give the Rams the edge over the other two. Mainly because they are playing better down the stretch. But there's still games to play. It ain't over till its over.

PARAM wrote:I don't know what formula ESPN is using but this is what the NFL has listed as tie breaking procedure.



Rams 8-6 (3-1)(5-5) -28 Pt Diff.
Seattle 8-6 (3-2)(4-5) +2 Pt. Diff.

Applying those tie breaking procedures above, I can only come up with one way we win the division when we both finish at 10-7 with Seattle beating us. That's with a larger point differential. And that would take Seattle getting beat bad by Minnesota, squeaking by Chicago and beating us by a low number while we were beating the Jets and Arizona by a large number. We would have to make up more than 30 points in the next two weeks with enough cushion to cover a loss to Seattle. It could be done but man that's gonna be tough.

I think the strength of victory is not point differential. It's beating teams with better records.

I expect the Seahawks to lose to the Vikings, just like I expected them to lose to GB.

Basically down to the Cardinals game for the division, unless Cards lose to Panthers and we beat the Jets.