[kayfabe]

Two articles today from Las Vegas Sun on sportsbook results; upshot is that
books would've made a killing if not for two prop bets that the public
destoyed: Von Miller at MVP odds of up to 40-1, and "will there be a 2-point
conversion" both came in for the public, wiping out millions in sportsbook
profits.

http://lasvegassun.com/blogs/talking-po ... odest-win/
http://lasvegassun.com/blogs/talking-po ... uper-bowl/


By Case Keefer

Monday, Feb. 8, 2016 | 3:15 p.m.
Related Coverage

Super Bowl 50 will go down as the most prolifically bet game in Nevada sports books'
history.

Bettors gambled $132.5 million on the Denver Broncos 24-10 victory over the Carolina
Panthers, the Nevada Gaming Control Board announced Monday afternoon. The total walloped
the previous record of $119.4 million set two years ago when the Seattle Seahawks
defeated the Broncos.

Super Bowl 48 will still stand as the states most lucrative game. Nevada's 194 sports
books collectively reported a win of $13,314,539 on Super Bowl 50 for a hold of
10.1 percent, as compared with a $19,673,960 win and 16.5 percent hold two years ago.

As expected, sports books profited for the 25th time in the past 27 years since the
commission began keeping the data. Super Bowl 50 was the third largest Super Bowl win
for the casinos, but only eighth in terms of hold percentage.

Denver defeating Carolina in a low-scoring Super Bowl 50 would have registered as
an ideal result for Nevada sports books a few days ago.

That changed leading up to kickoff Sunday afternoon in Santa Clara, Calif. Casinos
will experience no major financial windfall in the wake of the Broncos overcoming
their status as 5.5-point underdogs to defeat the Panthers 24-10.

"Denver moneyline and under must have been the play of the day at the coffee shop,"
said Jimmy Vaccaro, veteran bookmaker at South Point. "For the last six or eight
hours this morning, everyone at the window was passing up the points and taking
Denver to win. That made it a wash for us".

...

"It wasn't a perfect result" said Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading at
William Hill sports books. "But it was a good-enough result. We just really
needed to avoid Carolina covering and the over."

They were hardly ever threatened with either of those scenarios. The Panthers, which
were as high as 6-point favorites in the two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl,
never held a lead.

Defense dictated the contest, allowing gamblers who wagered on the under 45 points to
collect comfortably. Denver linebacker Von Miller recorded six tackles, 2.5 sacks
and two forced fumbles to become the 10th defensive Super Bowl MVP, which cost
William Hill dearly.

Nevada's largest sports book operator opened odds on Miller to win the MVP
at 40-to-1, and closed at 15-to-1 after printing 350 tickets on him.

"They made a good call on that one" Bogdanovich said. "There were a lot of
happy bettors."

That wasn't what hurt the worst, though. William Hill's most popularly bet proposition
was the one asking bettors if there would be a two-point conversion, with 96 percent
of the action coming in on the "yes."

Peyton Manning's successful conversion pass to Bennie Fowler with three minutes
remaining had bookmakers across the state cursing.

"That was the worst one, but there were some other bad ones," Bogdanovich said. "About
seven or eight of the biggest ones came in. I'd guess it's only a small win on the props."

No sports book directors were complaining about the volume of bets. Casinos were
slammed all weekend with patrons looking to bet on the game.

...

"It doesn't even sound realistic, but we had 25 windows open between the sports book,
the race book and the ballrooms and there were never less than 10 people in a line
all day", Vaccaro said.

...

The casinos' celebrations would have been bigger if Carolina found a way to win while
Denver sneaked in beneath the point spread, but in the end, they'll still come out
ahead for the eighth consecutive year.

"I've been in this racket long enough to know there's nothing you can do about it,"
Vaccaro said. "You want to win them all big but you understand you can't. Up until
this morning, we needed Denver for a sizable portion but we couldn't stop people from
betting them."

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected].
Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.