Where has all the offense gone this season?
PostPosted:1 year 1 month ago
https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/a ... ency-2023/
Where has all the offense gone this season?
If the NFL feels different this year, that’s because it is.
If it seems less exciting, less competitive, and less entertaining…that’s because it is.
No, your eyes aren’t deceiving you.
What you sense when you are watching these games is what the product is becoming.
It’s the direction the game is trending.
The product feels bland.
Superstars don’t feel as “super” this year.
Elite teams don’t feel as “elite” or unstoppable this year.
I’ve seen it on social media plenty and heard it directly from fans. There is less enthusiasm around the product and less excitement.
So, what specifically has changed? And to what extent is what we’re watching different from previous years?
It’s easiest to point the blame to defenses and their adjustments. They’ve adapted the last two years and are playing a style of defense that has reduced big plays. We’ll get into the weeds as to what they are doing differently later.
But the offensive coordinators are not blameless themselves.
Their inability to keep their quarterbacks upright (more sacks) coupled with more conservative approaches and less aggressive play calling throughout the game (early scoring vs. late scoring) and worse red zone play calling (historically bad performance) has severely hampered scoring. And we’ll dig deeply into that, as well.
And let’s not forget the NFL itself.
The new rules emphasized over the last two years have been quite “pro-defense,” and the results are unmistakable. Both at the line of scrimmage, with far fewer defensive pre-snap penalties and far more offensive pre-snap penalties, as well as in big plays, with a reduction of pass interference and an emphasis on ineligible man downfield penalties negating big plays.
I have the penalty data, and we’ll walk through it.
The collective result is what we’re seeing play out in front of our eyes:
This year, there are far fewer touchdowns (less excitement) and far fewer points scored (less excitement). Scoring output (43.4 ppg) is down to pre-2010 rule change levels.
But somehow, there are also more blowouts (less excitement) and fewer underdogs barking (less excitement). Underdogs are covering at a 44.8% rate, the worst rate we’ve seen in two decades (2003).
Even the oddsmakers, experts in setting predicted outcomes for games, can’t keep up with the lack of scoring or excitement in today’s NFL.
Case in point: Oddsmakers have set the average point total for games at 44.1 projected points scored. That’s an extremely low number. In fact, it is the lowest they’ve set average point totals since 2011. But they recognize how neutered the game is right now.
However, despite the extremely low expectations for scoring, only 38.5% of games have gone over their predicted point total. That is the lowest rate of games going “over the total” or more points being scored than predicted in more than three decades (1991).
The level of offensive impotency we are witnessing this season is simply extraordinary. This is not a slight downturn in scoring nor a blip in the radar.
There are many factors, which we will investigate, but it’s hard to imagine this is good for the NFL.
Does the NFL really want fewer points being scored, defenses given the upper hand in the rules emphasized over the last few years, fewer big plays or highlights to showcase the sport internationally, less excitement for fantasy managers, and more questionable officiating, decisions that are impacting game outcomes more directly because every yard and every point is now more important due to the reduction in scoring?
They may not want any of that. They should not want any of that.
But that is what they are getting in 2023.
So, let’s go unpack everything that has transpired these first six weeks. Let’s look at data in 2023 compared annually over the prior 10 years since 2013 to make sense of what we’re seeing and to try to put our finger on exactly what is transpiring this year.
For this entire analysis, I will be pulling data from TruMedia for Weeks 1 through 6 of each season so that the comparison is as apples-to-apples as possible.
Low NFL Scoring in 2023
In 2023, teams are combining to score just 43.4 points per game.
Last year, it was 43.3.
These last two years of scoring represent the fewest points per game scored that we’ve seen since the NFL put an emphasis on roughing the passer and illegal hits over the middle of the field on defenseless receivers back in 2010.
Immediately thereafter, starting in 2011, we saw offenses begin to pass the ball more often, and the league flourished as scoring increased.
Fantasy football took off, TV viewership took off, and the popularity of the product took off, as well. This occurred only a few years after Rodger Goodell took over the NFL in 2006.
Average combined points per game by year, Weeks 1-6:
2010: 41.8
2011: 45.4
2012: 46.5
2013: 45.9
2014: 46.7
2015: 46.6
2016: 45.9
2017: 44.4
2018: 48.3
2019: 44.7
2020: 50.8*
2021: 47.8
2022: 43.3
2023: 43.4
The spike in scoring, thanks to the rule changes of 2010 and the passing revolution that followed, is apparent.
The 2020 season must be understood with the context that no fans were allowed to attend games due to COVID. As a result, road offenses received a solid boost, and collectively, teams found it easier to audible at the line of scrimmage. That resulted in a scoring rise which disappeared immediately in 2021.
In the last two years, scoring is down to levels lower than prior to the rule emphasis on protecting quarterbacks in 2010.
The initial reason why scoring increased after 2010 was pass rates, which had been in the 57% to 58% range annually from 2006 through 2010. It increased to 60 to 61% from 2011 through 2015.
But the reason scoring is down now is not because of a huge return to the ground game.
Indeed, teams are still passing at a 60.8% clip, which is within 0.3% of the 10-year average from 2013 to 2022 (61.1%).
However, as you’ll see as we progress through the entire landscape of the NFL’s changing league-wide trends, these small tenths-of-a-percent accumulate into some of what we are witnessing.
That said, we had a 60.0% pass rate in 2014, a 60.2% pass rate in 2017, and a 60.6% pass rate in the scoring explosion that was the 2020 season, and all of those seasons still saw significantly higher scoring than we are seeing in 2023, despite passing the ball more now than we did then.
Through Week 6 in 2018, we saw 328 offensive touchdowns scored in 186 games played.
We’ve played 186 games this year.
Through Week 6 this year, we’ve seen just 245 offensive touchdowns scored!
From 328 down to 245. 83 fewer offensive touchdowns, a drop of over 25%.
While 328 was a high mark, in 2020 and 2021, we saw 318 and 321 offensive touchdowns scored in the first six weeks.
We haven’t been close to that in the last two years (245 in 2023 and 257 in 2022).
The reason the NFL feels different is because the drop in scoring is significant.
And you can feel it when you sit on your couch and have less to jump up and down about.
The sense of a reduction in excitement is not in your mind. It is quite real.
Where has all the offense gone this season?
If the NFL feels different this year, that’s because it is.
If it seems less exciting, less competitive, and less entertaining…that’s because it is.
No, your eyes aren’t deceiving you.
What you sense when you are watching these games is what the product is becoming.
It’s the direction the game is trending.
The product feels bland.
Superstars don’t feel as “super” this year.
Elite teams don’t feel as “elite” or unstoppable this year.
I’ve seen it on social media plenty and heard it directly from fans. There is less enthusiasm around the product and less excitement.
So, what specifically has changed? And to what extent is what we’re watching different from previous years?
It’s easiest to point the blame to defenses and their adjustments. They’ve adapted the last two years and are playing a style of defense that has reduced big plays. We’ll get into the weeds as to what they are doing differently later.
But the offensive coordinators are not blameless themselves.
Their inability to keep their quarterbacks upright (more sacks) coupled with more conservative approaches and less aggressive play calling throughout the game (early scoring vs. late scoring) and worse red zone play calling (historically bad performance) has severely hampered scoring. And we’ll dig deeply into that, as well.
And let’s not forget the NFL itself.
The new rules emphasized over the last two years have been quite “pro-defense,” and the results are unmistakable. Both at the line of scrimmage, with far fewer defensive pre-snap penalties and far more offensive pre-snap penalties, as well as in big plays, with a reduction of pass interference and an emphasis on ineligible man downfield penalties negating big plays.
I have the penalty data, and we’ll walk through it.
The collective result is what we’re seeing play out in front of our eyes:
This year, there are far fewer touchdowns (less excitement) and far fewer points scored (less excitement). Scoring output (43.4 ppg) is down to pre-2010 rule change levels.
But somehow, there are also more blowouts (less excitement) and fewer underdogs barking (less excitement). Underdogs are covering at a 44.8% rate, the worst rate we’ve seen in two decades (2003).
Even the oddsmakers, experts in setting predicted outcomes for games, can’t keep up with the lack of scoring or excitement in today’s NFL.
Case in point: Oddsmakers have set the average point total for games at 44.1 projected points scored. That’s an extremely low number. In fact, it is the lowest they’ve set average point totals since 2011. But they recognize how neutered the game is right now.
However, despite the extremely low expectations for scoring, only 38.5% of games have gone over their predicted point total. That is the lowest rate of games going “over the total” or more points being scored than predicted in more than three decades (1991).
The level of offensive impotency we are witnessing this season is simply extraordinary. This is not a slight downturn in scoring nor a blip in the radar.
There are many factors, which we will investigate, but it’s hard to imagine this is good for the NFL.
Does the NFL really want fewer points being scored, defenses given the upper hand in the rules emphasized over the last few years, fewer big plays or highlights to showcase the sport internationally, less excitement for fantasy managers, and more questionable officiating, decisions that are impacting game outcomes more directly because every yard and every point is now more important due to the reduction in scoring?
They may not want any of that. They should not want any of that.
But that is what they are getting in 2023.
So, let’s go unpack everything that has transpired these first six weeks. Let’s look at data in 2023 compared annually over the prior 10 years since 2013 to make sense of what we’re seeing and to try to put our finger on exactly what is transpiring this year.
For this entire analysis, I will be pulling data from TruMedia for Weeks 1 through 6 of each season so that the comparison is as apples-to-apples as possible.
Low NFL Scoring in 2023
In 2023, teams are combining to score just 43.4 points per game.
Last year, it was 43.3.
These last two years of scoring represent the fewest points per game scored that we’ve seen since the NFL put an emphasis on roughing the passer and illegal hits over the middle of the field on defenseless receivers back in 2010.
Immediately thereafter, starting in 2011, we saw offenses begin to pass the ball more often, and the league flourished as scoring increased.
Fantasy football took off, TV viewership took off, and the popularity of the product took off, as well. This occurred only a few years after Rodger Goodell took over the NFL in 2006.
Average combined points per game by year, Weeks 1-6:
2010: 41.8
2011: 45.4
2012: 46.5
2013: 45.9
2014: 46.7
2015: 46.6
2016: 45.9
2017: 44.4
2018: 48.3
2019: 44.7
2020: 50.8*
2021: 47.8
2022: 43.3
2023: 43.4
The spike in scoring, thanks to the rule changes of 2010 and the passing revolution that followed, is apparent.
The 2020 season must be understood with the context that no fans were allowed to attend games due to COVID. As a result, road offenses received a solid boost, and collectively, teams found it easier to audible at the line of scrimmage. That resulted in a scoring rise which disappeared immediately in 2021.
In the last two years, scoring is down to levels lower than prior to the rule emphasis on protecting quarterbacks in 2010.
The initial reason why scoring increased after 2010 was pass rates, which had been in the 57% to 58% range annually from 2006 through 2010. It increased to 60 to 61% from 2011 through 2015.
But the reason scoring is down now is not because of a huge return to the ground game.
Indeed, teams are still passing at a 60.8% clip, which is within 0.3% of the 10-year average from 2013 to 2022 (61.1%).
However, as you’ll see as we progress through the entire landscape of the NFL’s changing league-wide trends, these small tenths-of-a-percent accumulate into some of what we are witnessing.
That said, we had a 60.0% pass rate in 2014, a 60.2% pass rate in 2017, and a 60.6% pass rate in the scoring explosion that was the 2020 season, and all of those seasons still saw significantly higher scoring than we are seeing in 2023, despite passing the ball more now than we did then.
Through Week 6 in 2018, we saw 328 offensive touchdowns scored in 186 games played.
We’ve played 186 games this year.
Through Week 6 this year, we’ve seen just 245 offensive touchdowns scored!
From 328 down to 245. 83 fewer offensive touchdowns, a drop of over 25%.
While 328 was a high mark, in 2020 and 2021, we saw 318 and 321 offensive touchdowns scored in the first six weeks.
We haven’t been close to that in the last two years (245 in 2023 and 257 in 2022).
The reason the NFL feels different is because the drop in scoring is significant.
And you can feel it when you sit on your couch and have less to jump up and down about.
The sense of a reduction in excitement is not in your mind. It is quite real.