[/zn/]

The problem with that stat is they measure TDs per trips to the redzone.

It's good to be rated highly in that regard, but a more refined stat measures percentage of TDs per attempts inside the 10.

Why inside the 10? 2 reasons. It's more of a passing opportunity. Inside the 20 can mean that a first down is an option as much as throwing to the endzone. So it's more watered down.

Also, one of the oldest and best sources of NFL stats, http://www.stats.com, does that stat (inside the 10). The reason that's good is because it automatically allows for comparisons. They do all the work and the rankings. (The easiest access to STATS.com is through the Washington Post: http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/index.asp ).

A qb who can throw a high percentage of TDs per attempts inside the 10 can mean the difference sometimes between FGs and TDs. If your team also has a running game and the defense knows you're efficient passing it makes you harder to defend.

Inside the 10, so far, Goff is 12 of 31. That does not indicate he had 12 trips to inside the 10 and scored on all of them.

I expect Goff to improve in this category though he's not bad now. In fact he has improved during the season.

...

[ramsman34]

Okay, fair enough, I misread a bit.

In terms of your last statement there, yes we're more or less in the same ballpark, it's just that you see more growth NOW and maybe Max sees more of it coming down the line.

In terms of clutch ability...now that I think about it, I am not sure that's a factor of time. I think you have that, or you don't. And so I would say right now that I don't know yet if he has that. He has shown some signs of it.

Fair enough. I studied and tested what it means to be "clutch" in our sports psychology lab in undergrad. It is a very difficult thing to measure. While choking, on the other hand, seems easier to measure. We could not conclusively attribute being clutch to experience or to being born with it. However, it IS a mentality - controlling for ability, opportunity, etc. Some guys thrive under pressure, some guys don't. Goff seems to have the mental make up to be able to thrive under duress. Time and opportunity will tell that story.

The premise of if he is ready now or a year form now are based solely on feel and observational opinions. And we can and do all differ somewhat in those opinions. Goff SHOULD have had one of these clutch performances against Seattle week 5. He can't catch the ball he throws. Would Kupp catching that ball change Max's point of view? Have to ask him.

Frankly, he will get opportunities over time. I, for one, don't mind him not getting them as long as we are winning.

Lastly, I think opportunities for Goff being clutch are a few short weeks away - hell, maybe even in Tennessee - games are usually tighter the deeper you get in the playoffs.

We will have our answers as to how ready he is right now, very soon.

[/zn/]

He hasn't led them downfield with 1:34 left in the game to win it. And until he does, he won't have a comeback on his resume.

True. Rams were in that situation:

w/ 1:44 left in the Washington game
w/ both 4:17 and 1:07 left in the 1st Seattle game (ie. 2 different series)
w/ 3:45 left in the Phil game ....though they also had a chance at a game-winning drive (not a comeback) w/ 9:45 left.

[/zn/]

We will have our answers as to how ready he is right now, very soon.

Yeah and I take that as HOW ready...right now. Cause I see him as a fairly slow developer who nevertheless has everything he needs to become a good one. Smarts, poise, dedication, mindset, competitiveness, arm talent, feet, pocket sense, feel for the game. So no matter HOW ready he is right now, I personally see a guy who will be much MORE ready down the road.

He just needs experience to refine all that. Plus maybe another off-season to do things like work on technique and throwing on the run and things of that nature. I think he started pretty raw but with all the requisite innate stuff he needs.

[aeneas1]

It's good to be rated highly in that regard, but a more refined stat measures percentage of TDs per attempts inside the 10.

nothing "refined" about td% inside the 10, because it doesn't take picks (or other measurables) into consideration... who cares if qb ranks high in td% inside the 10 if he also has a high pick % inside the 10? cutler ranks 3rd best in td% inside the 10, why do you find that impressive, "refined", when he also ranks 4th worst in pick %, 30th in qb rating, 27th in sacks taken, and 14th in completion % inside the 10? actually i know the answer - you find that stat meaningful because you mined some numbers in an effort to marginalize goff's tremendous rz stats and stumbled on that, but it's a big swing/miss, kinda like the 31+ stuff.

[max]

nothing "refined" about td% inside the 10, because it doesn't take picks (or other measurables) into consideration... who cares if qb ranks high in td% inside the 10 if he also has a high pick % inside the 10? cutler ranks 3rd best in td% inside the 10, why do you find that impressive, "refined", when he also ranks 4th worst in pick %, 30th in qb rating, 27th in sacks taken, and 14th in completion % inside the 10? actually i know the answer - you find that stat meaningful because you mined some numbers in an effort to marginalize goff's tremendous rz stats and stumbled on that, but it's a big swing/miss, kinda like the 31+ stuff.

First off, those are too many numbers for me to digest. Second, I'm getting dumber in my old age. Third, thats why I limit myself to the eyeball test at this point in my life. Fourth, it sucks getting old. Fifth, I'm enjoying the hell out of this year and I'm walking around really happy regardless of being old.

[/zn/]

in an effort to marginalize goff's tremendous rz stats and stumbled on that

BS on motives posting. Attributing "bad motives" to your debate opponent is just not the way of good conversation, that's just flame posting. (And I have no idea what your motives are, it's just not good posting.)

Two things. To slap down a bad assumption on your part.

One is I have been using the inside the 10 percentage for years now, and it was with every major qb the Rams have started, going back to Bulger in 2006. So it has nothing to do with the little scenario you imagined for yourself there about wanting to diss Goff.

Second is, I am a big Goff advocate and didn't waver on that last year. I think I was the first here to actually post that he IS a franchise qb and only needed experience to develop (that was in the first week in October). So please don't pull the PD board style "you hate the player" flames out on me, I am looking for honest conversation on these issues. Disagreement is fine, not motives flaming.

Bad flame posting habits aside, you raise an interesting issue. My answer is this. If you want to factor in picks, then, do qb rating inside the 10. Or INT%. Or both Doing it this way (that is attempts as opposed to trips to the redzone) doesn't exclude that. That way Cutler's 2 INTs inside the 10 can balance out his 52% TD percentage, if you want. Or you can notice that someone like Wentz has a 54% TD percentage inside the 10 with no INTs.

Plus a high qb rating measured in terms of trips to the redzone is that it can be too blurry a picture. So for example espn gives Goff a qb rating of 105.2 inside the 10, which kind of hides the fact that he doesn't crack 40% in terms of TDs per attempt...when the good ones are more in the range of 50%-60%. (I assume I don't need to explain the advantage of that.) (And I also assume I don't need to explain that my entire take on Goff is always premised on him getting better with experience, and that includes TD% inside the 10.)

But...IF your aim is to find TDs PER ATTEMPT, then, just measuring TDs per trip to the redzone does not give you anything that focused.

The problem with measuring in terms of trips to the redzone is that you have less of a sense of how deadly the qb is per attempt. And there are qbs who are more deadly than others.

...

[aeneas1]

We have a very small sample size to work with here. And those are hall of fame QBs. I don't think anyone is suggesting Goff is in that echelon currently. Again, a function of time and experience. I believe Goff has enough current experience to keep winning this season. And, I think he can win late in the 4th coming from behind, based on the players around him, his own ability and development, and his coach. Not scientific by any means - observational and gut feeling.

thing is, it's possible that time and success won't even settle the debate, plenty of folks in seattle are pulling for the hags to clean house and draft a qb, plenty still fuming over wilson's sb pick, not convinced that he's "clutch", despite the wins and postseason trips he's brought to that team... and how about dak? 5 4qcb last season (a meaningless stat imo, for many reasons), proof to many that he was legit, had already arrived, haven't heard much of the same this season.

goff? he's a work in progress, unfinished, pretty sure most agree with this, hell his nfl resume alone, just 14 starts in a competent offense, a veritable rookie, underscores this, but that certainly doesn't preclude him from being capable of winning big games, showing up in spades on a big stage, in a tough sitch, he's already done it, in dallas, and he looked impressive as hell on the final drive in the first seattle game.

anyhoo, goff could put together 5 consecutive "4qcb" to finish out this season, including a dramatic "4qcb" to win the 2017 super bowl, and plenty would still have doubts next year, the moment he didn't pull a couple out, ha ha, gotta love being a fan!

imo goff has played very well this season, has exceeded just about everyone's expectations (funny how when a guy does well no one brings up the "had to learn a new system" shit, eh?) and, most importantly imo, has shown promise in terms of being a solid, top tier qb for the rams looking forward.

[ramsman34]

Yeah and I take that as HOW ready...right now. Cause I see him as a fairly slow developer who nevertheless has everything he needs to become a good one. Smarts, poise, dedication, mindset, competitiveness, arm talent, feet, pocket sense, feel for the game. So no matter HOW ready he is right now, I personally see a guy who will be much MORE ready down the road.

He just needs experience to refine all that. Plus maybe another off-season to do things like work on technique and throwing on the run and things of that nature. I think he started pretty raw but with all the requisite innate stuff he needs.

Ans on this we basically agree.

[ramsman34]

thing is, it's possible that time and success won't even settle the debate, plenty of folks in seattle are pulling for the hags to clean house and draft a qb, plenty still fuming over wilson's sb pick, not convinced that he's "clutch", despite the wins and postseason trips he's brought to that team... and how about dak? 5 4qcb last season (a meaningless stat imo, for many reasons), proof to many that he was legit, had already arrived, haven't heard much of the same this season.

goff? he's a work in progress, unfinished, pretty sure most agree with this, hell his nfl resume alone, just 14 starts in a competent offense, a veritable rookie, underscores this, but that certainly doesn't preclude him from being capable of winning big games, showing up in spades on a big stage, in a tough sitch, he's already done it, in dallas, and he looked impressive as hell on the final drive in the first seattle game.

anyhoo, goff could put together 5 consecutive "4qcb" to finish out this season, including a dramatic "4qcb" to win the 2017 super bowl, and plenty would still have doubts next year, the moment he didn't pull a couple out, ha ha, gotta love being a fan!

imo goff has played very well this season, has exceeded just about everyone's expectations (funny how when a guy does well no one brings up the "had to learn a new system" shit, eh?) and, most importantly imo, has shown promise in terms of being a solid, top tier qb for the rams looking forward.

And I agree with all of this as well.

I hope he doesn't HAVE to face a lot of "tests" in that we are winning and don't need to come back to do so. Much rather protect a lead than come from behind - as boring as that may be for some. Lost in all of this is his ability to consistently avoid the big mistake - especially while staying pretty aggressive, and even when having to come from behind - Washington game notwithstanding. That is a benchmark of a smart QB to me.