[aeneas1]

I'm not ashamed of being a Bradford fan.

to say the least, yikes!

[PARAM]

the cold hard facts speak for themselves. Goff hasn't really compared to his peers in a long while now.

I don't know about that. Hasn't compared "in quite some time"?

Last 3 years (2018-2020)

Quarterback........Attpts..........Yards..........TDs..........Ints..........Comp%........QB Rating........Wins
Mahomes............981..............13336.........109...........22..............66.8%..........110.7...............35
Brady.................1680.............11908.......... 83...........30..............63.7%...........93.7.................31
Goff....................1662.............12835...........72...........39..............65.1%...........93.2.................31
Wilson................1402.............11243..........102..........24..............67.4%..........108.6...............30
Rodgers..............1614.............12129..........90............10..............64.3%..........102.9...............29
Brees..................1165...............9167...........77............12..............74.2%..........114.4...............28
Jackson..............881................6546...........60............16..............63.8%..........101.3...............27
Rivers.................1553.............12430...........75...........41..............67.4%...........96.7.................26
Watson...............1431.............11778...........77...........27..............68.1%...........103.2...............25
Allen...................1252..............8804............58...........30..............60.9%...........87.6................25
Cousins...............1450.............11199...........83..........28...............69.1%..........102.9...............24
Trubisky..............1149..............7697.............54..........27...............64.6%..........89.7.................23
Mayfield..............1394............10337............72..........43...............61.7%..........88.8.................21
Tannehill.............963...............7930.............67..........20...............66.7%..........106.5...............21
Ryan...................1722.............13050........... 80..........32...............66.6%..........96.9.................18
Carr.....................1506............11446............64..........25...............69.2%..........98.7.................18
Wentz..................1445.............9733..............64..........29...............63.5%..........89.5.................17
Stafford...............1308.............9798..............62..........25...............64.9%..........95.2.................14

[max]

I don't know about that. Hasn't compared "in quite some time"?

His passer rating over the last 3 years isn't anything to write home about, but he does have wins.

The obvious question is how much credit does he get for the wins. IOW, how many fewer wins would the Rams have if they had one of the 20 or so QBs with a better passer rating instead of Goff? That's all debatable. If the Rams had Watson, for instance, do the Rams really have fewer wins? I doubt it.

The point here is that using wins as an argument that 1 QB is better than another QB is tricky. Too many other variables.

[PARAM]

His passer rating over the last 3 years isn't anything to write home about, but he does have wins.

The obvious question is how much credit does he get for the wins. IOW, how many fewer wins would the Rams have if they had one of the 20 or so QBs with a better passer rating instead of Goff? That's all debatable. If the Rams had Watson, for instance, do the Rams really have fewer wins? I doubt it.

The point here is that using wins as an argument that 1 QB is better than another QB is tricky. Too many other variables.

Oh I'm not using wins to determine the talent or performance of a QB, but it does come into play. A shitty QB isn't going to win very often. See Trubisky or Wentz (lately). And a talented QB on a crappy team isn't going to win much either (see Stafford). Which is why it's tricky. I simply listed them by wins because in the end, that is the most important thing for a TEAM.

And sure his passer rating isn't great over that period but is it as bad as we are led to believe? For a guy who "doesn't compare to his peers in quite some time" I'd think he be much lower than Brady.

What are the top factors in figuring passer rating?

#1 Most important is Yds/Att
#2 is Int%
#3 is TD%
#4 Is completion percentage, the starting point

So passing yards will help, provided the number of attempts to gain them isn't too high.
TD passes are important, particularly with respect to interceptions. Because QBs are penalized more for interceptions than credited for TDs.
It's an easy formula.

But is passer rating the true measure of how good a QB actually is? I think there's more to it than that. And that can be explained in a couple of ways.

[/zn/]

His passer rating over the last 3 years isn't anything to write home about

His rating in 2018 was just fine.

His rating in 2019 is a direct effect of having a problem OL most of the season. Having a problem OL being the issue that many people say they factor in but then some actually don't. Favorite additional examples: Ryan and Rivers had big OL issues in 2019 too. Ryan had a rating of 108.1 in 2018 and with that OL in 2019 it slipped to 92.1. In 2018 Rivers was 105.5, in 2019 88.5. All 3 qbs had similar OL issues and all 3 had similar drops in effectiveness.

His rating in 2020 is tilted by the 3 bad games. So again it gets down to whether you believe those 3 bad games are a big indication of who he is and always on the verge of happening, or just bad games that happened for specific reasons and not a regular thing to worry about going forward.

....

[PARAM]

His rating in 2018 was just fine.

His rating in 2019 is a direct effect of having a problem OL most of the season. Having a problem OL being the issue that many people say they factor in but then some actually don't. Favorite additional examples: Ryan and Rivers had big OL issues in 2019 too. Ryan had a rating of 108.1 in 2018 and with that OL in 2019 it slipped to 92.1. In 2018 Rivers was 105.5, in 2019 88.5. All 3 qbs had similar OL issues and all 3 had similar drops in effectiveness.

His rating in 2020 is tilted by the 3 bad games. So again it gets down to whether you believe those 3 bad games are a big indication of who he is and always on the verge of happening, or just bad games that happened for specific reasons and not a regular thing to worry about going forward.

....

He's actually rebounded from 2019 and that bad line to some degree. Sure they were decent early before the injuries and got better towards the end of the season with the replacements. But it was a bad year, statistically for Goff. Not that it wasn't his fault to some degree. His TDs are up (3.5% to 3.8%) and his picks are down (2.6% to 2.3%) and will probably get better over the next 3 games. His pass attempts per game are down from 2019 (39.1/g to 36.5/g) but that has actually gone up the last 6 games (42.0). He was averaging 31.9 over the first 7 games.

I'm sure there will be some fans who point to the TD passes and ask, why so low? Well maybe 1 reason is because, of all those QBs I listed, none of them are in an offense with more rushing TDs than the Rams (62 from 2018-2020). Why pass it in when you can run it in? In fact the only QBs that I listed who have engineered more TD drives than Goff (134) are Mahomes (152) and Wilson (144). Rodgers is right behind with 133.

[sloramfan]

how in the hell does a bradford/ goff comparison even come up again???!!

that's a dead horse that's been beaten to dust... THAT ARGUMENT AIN'T EVEN CLOSE!!!!!

my god, don't you guys remember the those dire straight times with sam we all are so happy to be out of FINALLY!!!

let's rejoice in the opportunity this football team, and it's QB, now present us with...

we got lucky, of the two available at the time, we got it right... so don't argue, celebrate...

go rams

slo

[/zn/]

I'm not giving him the SF game though. The pick-six he threw is exactly the kind of unforced mistake that he must avoid for this team to win a championship, imo.

I do. I give him that game. I think the pick 6 is more than balanced out by coming back from behind twice in the 2nd half against the league's #2 defense (once to take the lead, once to tie). He was pressured 12 times in that game yet came through in the 2nd half, and that's without a running game (24 for 72). Whenever I mention that game some people point to the roll-outs, but SF caught on to that and adjusted to it. So it was an honest uphill fight in the 2nd half to twice come from behind in that game.

To me that will always be the "you don't give up a 1st down on 3rd and 16 late in the 4th quarter--let alone twice" game.

[/zn/]

I still don't.
Don't make a blind throw.. which he pretty much admitted to... and it's a different game. Wins are precious, so's the ball.

I just was hit with the thought tonight.. how have the QBs for teams ahead of the Rams in the standings done in turnovers? Not surprisingly, to me, is that they've all done better than Goff this year in that aspect.

I don't have any problem with any other part of his overall performance. Fix the turnovers.. especially the brain-freeze kinds.. and I'll be happy with him. It's not like I'm expecting him to turn into a gun slinger or something. Protect the ball.

Well not much to add because we both just put in our 2 cents on either side. But just adding that I believe a player like Goff can learn to protect the ball. What I think is innate and not something that can be learned--something you either have or you don't--is the kind of mindset and skill to come back under difficult conditions (including self-inflicted ones) and take a game back. I think SF 2019 showed that. I like that kind of get up off the mat and take the fight to them kind of mentality. So if it works out the way we want, he will always have that mentality, but will cut down on the kinds of turnovers he had in his bad games.

...

[PARAM]

Turnovers are bad. "If Goff doesn't make that blind throw, it's a different game"? Sure it is. But that doesn't mean SF doesn't win anyway. Yes, turnovers are bad. Goff has 63 from 2017 through 2020. Aaron Rodgers has just 26 over the same period. So, logically thinking folks would naturally assume because of the disparity in ball security, Aaron Rodgers would have much more success than Jared Goff over that period. And yet he doesn't.

Rodgers: 13,804 yards passing 106 TDs 16 Ints (102.2 rating) 33-18-1
Goff: 16,639 yards passing 100 TDs 46 Ints (94.8 rating) 42-18-0

From 1999-2002 Kurt Warner had 76 turnovers for the Rams, in 50 games (36 wins, .720 win pct) and he's revered by Ram fans.