[aeneas1]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2 ... df3aae3b8d

Seth Walder of ESPN calculated Los Angeles would have had a 55 percent chance to win by going for the touchdown but reduced that to 43 percent with the field goal. Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders wasn’t as optimistic — his findings for the Rams were a 47 percent win probability with a try for the end zone compared with a 35 percent win probability with the field goal — but the sentiment is the same: McVay, known for taking chances, played too conservative.

yes, again i get that, but as mentioned earlier i wonder how granular the data set is? does it weigh home, away, point spread, all 4th & 1 tries, only tries from the opponent 1, etc., etc.? here's what pro football reference's win probability model comes up with for example:

saints get the ball 1st & 10 at their own 30
with 4:50 remaining in the 4th, after the rams kick a field goal (game tied):
win probability: 56.21%

saints get the ball 1st & 10 at their own 30
with 4:50 remaining in the 4th, after the rams score a td (down by 4):
win probability: 40.63%

saints get the ball 1st & 10 at their own 1
with 4:50 remaining in the 4th, after the rams fail to score a td (up by 3):
win probability: 76.64%

[BullDog99]

I think it depends on why the decision is being questioned. I don't think any Rams fans are questioning the move because they don't trust McVay or think he doesn't know what he's doing.

But I do agree that the decision is worth discussing because it was so out of character for him.

If I was coaching the game, I would have put it on the offense to get that last yard so my perception of McVay's choice is probably bias too but overall, I think many fans are just surprised that McVay would settle for the tie in that situation.

My bad.! What happened was through all the excitement of winning such an important game. I mistakenly saw the thread as someone just being overly negative.

[aeneas1]

I actually wasn't arguing, either way. Was just posting something with some numbers about it.

oh yeah, i know, sorry it came across that way, just an interesting topic... just glad we can debate it after a win vs a loss!