[dieterbrock]

Nonsense.

If you had Aaron Rogers on the roster would you trade up to draft Andrew Luck????

Of course not. You trade up because you need that position. C'mon.

You are confusing yourself.
If you can’t understand the differnence between trading up for the overall #1 pick and drafting at #23, I don’t know what to say.
Because when discussing bpa vs need, Aaron Rodgers is a perfect example of a team taking bpa over need in a mid 20’s pick.
Like the rams drafting Gurley and Donald despite having decent play at both positions.

[PARAM]

In your case let's say the Rams pick is at 22.

The Rams should draft #23 and alternate with Carolina the rest of the draft (which actually means their 2nd round pick they won't be using will be the 24th of the 2nd). They ended up with a lower strength of schedule than Carolina.

And I agree with you. I hope they take the BPA or trade up/down.
I agree with zn that teams don't all draft for BPA or need but a combination of both. That being said if they have a OLB ranked #22 available and a LT ranked #30, if they can't trade down I would want them to take the LT anyway. 8 spots isn't that far. However if they have the LT ranked #42 and can't trade down, then I hope they'd go OLB (ranked #23). 20 spots is a lot.

And then there's the question, without a 2nd round pick does that change the way they draft. I would hope not a lot.

Meanwhile, the point you disagreed with was a minor aside that came up in a discussion about how they will replace an aging LOT. Along with saying other things about that, I mentioned that you can't count on free agency for that because good LOTs are seldom available in free agency. So, yes, the odds are better that you can find a good LOT in the first round than in free agency. Good LOTs seldom make it to free agency...teams keep them. In the draft, there are just more of them.

Well this year was certainly the exception then. There were two OT's taken in the first round (Garrett Bolles and Ryan Ramczyk) and one taken in the second round (Cam Robinson). Meanwhile there were 4 signed in free agency (Matt Kalil, Reilly Reiff, Russell Okung and Andrew Whitworth) as well as one traded for (Duane Brown) by Seattle. Certainly that doesn't happen every year but there's no guarantee there will be "a lot" of OTs available in the first round, particularly LTs. The last two years saw a total of 7 OTs drafted in the first two rounds and just 5 of them currently play LT.

2017 / 2 (1 in 2nd)
2016 / 4 (1 in 2nd)
2015 / 6 (4 in 2nd, including Havenstein)
2014 / 5 , including GRob (4 in 2nd)

Of the 27 offensive tackles drafted in the first two rounds the last 4 seasons, 4 are currently backups (GRob, Cyrus Kouandjio, Cameron Erving, Sambrailo) and all 4 aren't with the team who drafted them. A dozen play either RT, G or C, which leaves 11 of the 27 who actually play LT. So drafting a LT in the first two rounds isn't a given.

[dieterbrock]

Disagree. The only ways to successfully draft for need is to target a specific player and trade up to get him, or get lucky that he falls in your lap.

In the Falcons case they needed a receiver and moved up for the guy they wanted, in Julio. They knew he wouldn't fall to them. At their pick they didn't feel any remaining receivers would be better than other players at other positions.

In your case let's say the Rams pick is at 22. The three tackles they graded as first round talent are off the board. The next best tackle has a mid second round to mid third round grade. You say you would use the 22nd pick on him? Even if an OLB that you rated as the 15th, or 22nd best player is there for the taking.
That is how to run a losing team.

Now, if there really isn't a good enough talent to take at 22, or then if you can trade back closer to where you value that Left Tackle and get another pick or two for it, then that is a good strategy. But you don't pass up what you think will be a great player for an average one.


I'll take it another step with your logic. You better draft another top QB in case Goff goes down to an injury be cause you won't want to watch a faltering offense and be able to say, at least I didn't draft for need. Add Running back too. If Gurley gets injured you will need a top running back to keep your offense from faltering.

Well said.
Target players, not positions.
If there is a guy you have to have, you move up to get him. If you think the guy you want will still be around, you can trade back and get him and pick up additional pick.

[dieterbrock]

Rams traded up in 2016 because they needed a qb. )

Which isn’t exactly true either.
In fact, the qb on the roster, the head coach thought had he started all of 2015 they would have been a playoff team. On the contrary, the Rams were allegedly so overwhelmed by Goff’s workouts that they had to have him, so they moved up to get him.

[/zn/]

This is utter nonsense.
Sorry... if you want to live in crazy town, have at it.

Yeah we know the story on this. They decided immediately in the off-season they were going to get a qb. Why? They needed one. Goff impressed them so he became the guy they wanted and were willing to trade up for. But, they were working him out in the first place (along with Wentz) because they had already decided qb was their biggest need.

[pmill66]

Could see a trade down into the lower part of the 1st round, picking up an additional 3rd rounder in the process, and adding a future LT. Reaching for that spot is what the Rams have to stay away from, the old saying stay true to your board certainly applies. 1st rounders have that extra year of control also.

[azramsfan93]

IMHO, the single largest reason we lost in the playoffs (beyond Pharaoh Cooper being a bonehead) was run defense.

We are in the “improving the contender” phase, and while I like long term thinking, I think the brain trust is focused on winning the Super Bowl NEXT YEAR. Fix your weakness and go for the ring. The “Not For Long” part of the NFL is real.

Fix the run defense!! Bolster the pass defense (but it was highly ranked, I am worried about TruJo and Webster). Win The Super Bowl!!

[/zn/]

IMHO, the single largest reason we lost in the playoffs (beyond Pharaoh Cooper being a bonehead) was run defense.

We are in the “improving the contender” phase, and while I like long term thinking, I think the brain trust is focused on winning the Super Bowl NEXT YEAR. Fix your weakness and go for the ring. The “Not For Long” part of the NFL is real.

Fix the run defense!! Bolster the pass defense (but it was highly ranked, I am worried about TruJo and Webster). Win The Super Bowl!!

This is the debate. It gets down to this. You can find NTs, CBs, and 3/4 OLBs in the 3rd-5th rounds. Those players would be added to a substantially strong veteran mix.

You pretty much CAN'T find left OTs after the 2nd round.

Arguably when your left OT declines the entire offense becomes a bigger problem than the run defense was.

...

[PARAM]

This is the debate. It gets down to this. You can find NTs, CBs, and 3/4 OLBs in the 3rd-5th rounds. Those players would be added to a substantially strong veteran mix.

You pretty much CAN'T find left OTs after the 2nd round.

Arguably when your left OT declines the entire offense becomes a bigger problem than the run defense was.

...

And yet, of the 27 OTs drafted in the first two rounds the last 4 years, 15 aren't starting at LT, including 4 who aren't starting anywhere. The latter is 1 in 7. The former is more than half. I think there is less an emphasis on drafting that LT high like KC Joyner and others believed a few years back. It's an important position but there are a variety of ways to find them.

Three of the 32 LTs in the NFL were UDFA's. 9 others went in the 2nd or lower. And of the 32 starting LT's in the NFL, 8 were obtained via free agency or trade (5 this season alone). There comes a time when teams have their LT and have to pay their RT almost as much. So the theory might evolve into developing a guy to take over cheaper at RT or moving the RT to LT, creating a pool of players in free agency capable of playing LT. Maybe that's why the number of OT's taken in the first two rounds has dropped the last couple of seasons.

[pmill66]

That's kinda my dream scenario. LT, CB, ILB.

Release Barron, keep Quinn one more year.

Agree to release Barron, on the fence about keeping Quinn. Think he does have value to other teams, trading him for a 3rd rounder, staying at pick 23. Sounds like it is a good year to draft pass rushers, replace him with a draft pick, to compete with Longacre. Can sign an ILB pretty reasonably, Longacre health is what is giving me pause about trading Quinn.