[R4L]

Perhaps not (and that's a pretty high bar), but it should be pointed out... Brady, Manning and Brees were not the Brady, Manning and Brees we know today at Goff's age:

Best single season before age of 26 (Goff will be 26 next October):

Passing Yards
Goff 4,688
Manning 4,413
Brady 3,764
Brees 3,159

Touchdowns
Manning 33
Goff 32
Brady 28
Brees 27

Passer Rating
Brees 104.8
Goff 101.1
Manning 94.7
Brady 85.7

What we've seen from Goff thus far may be inconsistent, and he definitely has not learned to handle all situations, but he's still had some very good production.

If anyone thinks he's peaked and is now regressing, I strongly disagree. I believe he still has the capacity to become considerably better - meaning that his performance in "clean" games will not be so different from his performance in more challenging circumstances.

And I still think that McVay is the guy to help him get there.

Great research my friend. Good stuff as always.

But i have one quibble. None of those that you mentioned hit the wall the following year did they? I don't believe they did.

I want Goff to be great. Really i do. But I'm beginning to wonder if that's ever going to happen.

It seems to me McVay and Goff got by with smoke and mirrors the first 2 years and now the league is spry to them.

I know Goff is the QB here. But if he regresses again next season, do the Rams move on from him?

[AvengerRam]

Great research my friend. Good stuff as always.

But i have one quibble. None of those that you mentioned hit the wall the following year did they? I don't believe they did.

Well... I guess it depends on how you define your terms.

After turning 26, Manning had a year with an 88.8 passer rating and 19 INTs.

In the 3 years after turning 26, Brees had two years with sub-90.0 passer ratings, and had 15 and 18 INTs in those seasons.

Brady, at 26 and at 29, had passer ratings of 85.9 and 87.9.

Does any of this mean that Goff will one day be a future HOFer like Manning, Brees and Brady? Of course not.

What it does show, however, is that QB progression is not always linear, and it can take time for a QB to become elite.

I think Goff is off to a good start, and I'm hopeful he'll get even better.

[PARAM]

But i have one quibble. None of those that you mentioned hit the wall the following year did they? I don't believe they did.

Depends on what you mean by "hit a wall".

Goff went from a 101.1 in 2018 to 84.8 in 2019, a drop of 16.3 in rating. The Rams went from 13-3 to 8-6 and counting.
Brees went from 104.8 in year 4 (year 3 as a starter) to 89.2 in year 5, a drop of 15.6 in rating. The Chargers went from 12-4 to 9-7.
The minutia could be examined more closely of course.

[PARAM]

Depends on what you mean by "hit a wall".

Goff went from a 101.1 in 2018 to 84.8 in 2019, a drop of 16.3 in rating. The Rams went from 13-3 to 8-6 and counting.
Brees went from 104.8 in year 4 (year 3 as a starter) to 89.2 in year 5, a drop of 15.6 in rating. The Chargers went from 12-4 to 9-7.
The minutia could be examined more closely of course.

And Manning went from 94.7 at age 24 to 84.1 at age 25. The Colts went from 10-6 to 6-10 while his TD-Int went from 33-15 to 26-23. I wouldn't call it "hitting a wall" but then I wouldn't call Goff 2018 to 2019 "hitting a wall" either.

Brady never dropped drastically but then in his first 4 years as a starter (age 24-27), he had just one where his QB rating was above 85.9 and that was 92.6 in his 4th year (as a starter).


I tend to agree with Avenger....

Well... I guess it depends on how you define your terms.

After turning 26, Manning had a year with an 88.8 passer rating and 19 INTs.

In the 3 years after turning 26, Brees had two years with sub-90.0 passer ratings, and had 15 and 18 INTs in those seasons.

Brady, at 26 and at 29, had passer ratings of 85.9 and 87.9.

Does any of this mean that Goff will one day be a future HOFer like Manning, Brees and Brady? Of course not.

What it does show, however, is that QB progression is not always linear, and it can take time for a QB to become elite.

I think Goff is off to a good start, and I'm hopeful he'll get even better.

[dieterbrock]

Interceptions thrown in first 4 seasons
Manning P 81 (64 games)
Brady 52 (62 games)
Favre 64 (61 games)
Goff 41 (52 games)

[snackdaddy]

But if he regresses again next season, do the Rams move on from him?

I don't think so. Its not like quarterbacks grow on trees. No matter how much he might regress, odds are there aren't any rookies they can find in the later rounds that could do better. They don't have to the cap dollars to sign a more expensive vet backup.

It would likely cost more to release Goff than keep him. They have to make it work with Goff. And they can't approach it like "What if he gets worse?" They have to approach with the mindset "Lets help him get better".

[CanuckRightWinger]

Most competent 4th year NFL QBs decide not make that throw!
Just sayin'

[CanuckRightWinger]

On the phone with ramsrams for the game (as is our Great Canadian Tradition) and I scream out "Holy Fook, we intercept the ball on Niner 25 yard line and end up missing a 52 yard FG!!! How did we do THAT!!??"

ramsrams in his priceless montone: "Don't overthink it my friend....

IT'S JUST THE WORLD ACCORDING TO GOFF!!"

CLASSIC!!!!!

[moklerman]

Nothing crumbles quite like Goff-ee cake.

[aeneas1]

bad (or very risky at best) play design on that pick, it's a no-look play where the qb locks his eyes downfield in an effort to sell coverage on a downfield pass, in and effort to draw coverage away from the intended screen play, then turns and quick throws, so many bad things can happen, including the intended target falling down and the qb not aware of it... oh well.