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 by max
5 years 11 months ago
 Total posts:   5714  
 Joined:  Jun 01 2015
United States of America   Sarasota, FL
Hall of Fame

aeneas1 wrote:here ya go, and a few more, tell me about the consistency these "trend charts" show...

z01.png
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OK, a1. I think I got it.

You added an extra game to Brady's chart at week 18. I see that you corrected that here.

Another thing you did was crop the y-axis to exaggerate the extremes. Thats an old presentation trick. I get it. You're a funny guy, but I'm an old engineer who has seen all that crap a million times before.

Here's what Brady's chart looks like when you use the same y-axis as Goff's.

You can see that Goffs extremes are greater. I get the point that no QB will have a flat trend line. But some QBs have greater variability than others, and Goff is one of those guys right now because of his inconsistency.

Image

 by max
5 years 11 months ago
 Total posts:   5714  
 Joined:  Jun 01 2015
United States of America   Sarasota, FL
Hall of Fame

moklerman wrote:Just a question: wasn't the "Mendoza" line supposed to be an >80?


Yes. Thats what I showed. Not sure what a1 is doing, but he seems to having trouble with charts today.

 by aeneas1
5 years 11 months ago
 Total posts:   16894  
 Joined:  Sep 13 2015
United States of America   Norcal
Hall of Fame

max wrote:You can see that Goffs extremes are greater.

oh my...

look at the "trend charts" i posted, tell me which ones represent the gold standard in top qb consistency that you incredibly seem to think exists... you mentioned that "goff's extremes are greater" than brady's (no way you typed that with a straight face), so that would mean had goff posted brady's chart we would be looking at something special? is that right? :oops2:

 by max
5 years 11 months ago
 Total posts:   5714  
 Joined:  Jun 01 2015
United States of America   Sarasota, FL
Hall of Fame

aeneas1 wrote:oh my...

look at the "trend charts" i posted, tell me which ones represent the gold standard in top qb consistency that you incredibly seem to think exists... you mentioned that "goff's extremes are greater" than brady's (no way you typed that with a straight face), so that would mean had goff posted brady's chart we would be looking at something special? is that right? :oops2:


I did look at your charts. They are distorted charts. Stop playing games with the y-axis.

How about the simple fact that Goff had a variance of 139.2 rating points (158.3-19.1) from his best game to his worst game. When was the last time a QB did that in a single season.

And this has nothing to do with having something special. It has to do with inconsistency.

 by /zn/
5 years 11 months ago
 Total posts:   6943  
 Joined:  Jun 28 2015
United States of America   Maine
Hall of Fame

max wrote:You can see that Goffs extremes are greater. I get the point that no QB will have a flat trend line. But some QBs have greater variability than others, and Goff is one of those guys right now because of his inconsistency.


Besides, it's not supposed to be heartening that a young Goff was more inconsistent as a 3rd year qb than Brady was is in his worst year (in terms of consistency) for years.

Playoffs included, Brady had 5 below avg. games in 2018. In the previous 2 years, counting the post-season, he had 2 below avg. games each year, and they were far apart (and not consecutive or in a bunch, like Goff's 5 of 8 at the end of 2018).

Brady's norm before 2018? That's Goff's future--or something like it, at least in terms of being more consistent. Maybe if he's still playing at 42 he'll slip too. But that's not till 2036.

....

 by PARAM
5 years 11 months ago
 Total posts:   13221  
 Joined:  Jul 15 2015
Barbados   Just far enough North of Philadelphia
Hall of Fame

max wrote:How about the simple fact that Goff had a variance of 139.2 rating points (158.3-19.1) from his best game to his worst game. When was the last time a QB did that in a single season.


Russell Wilson had a 120.4 last year.

Brees had a 91.3 in 2016

Rivers had a 91.7 last year, a 99.9 in 2017 and a 90.1 in 2016.

Roethlisberger had a 97.8 last year and a 114.7 in 2016

Come on Max!!! All it says is the QB had a really good game and a really bad game in the same season. And please, for the sake of reputation, don't try and make a big deal of the 139.2 more than the 120.4 for Wilson. I would think any time a QB had a difference of at least 90 (which is a pretty good QB rating in itself), it compares. And again, it only means they had a great game and a terrible game in the same year, not that Goff is somehow more inconsistent than others. What it also says is although the folks who figured out a QB rating system put a cap on how high the thing can be (for whatever reason) but none on how low.

 by max
5 years 11 months ago
 Total posts:   5714  
 Joined:  Jun 01 2015
United States of America   Sarasota, FL
Hall of Fame

/zn/ wrote:Besides, it's not supposed to be heartening that a young Goff is more inconsistent as a 3rd year qb than Brady was is in his worst year (in terms of consistency) for years.

Playoffs included, Brady had 5 below avg. games in 2018. In the previous 2 years, counting the post-season, he had 2 below avg. games each year, and they were far apart (and not consecutive or in a bunch, like Goff's 5 of 8 at the end of 2018).

Brady's norm before 2018? That's Goff's future--or something like it, at least in terms of being more consistent. Maybe if he's still playing at 42 he'll slip too.

....


Yeah, I get it. Brady is not the same guy he was. He is slipping despite what some in the media say. But, jeez, the guy is 42 freaking years old. No way his experience makes up for that much aging. I don't care what magic juice he's taking.

There are 2 other QBs that had a perfect passer rating, besides Goff in 2018. One is Roethlisberger, the other is Wilson. Only Wilson had a game under a 60 rating and he won it. Goff had 3 games under 60, and lost all 3.

 by aeneas1
5 years 11 months ago
 Total posts:   16894  
 Joined:  Sep 13 2015
United States of America   Norcal
Hall of Fame

max wrote:I did look at your charts. They are distorted charts. Stop playing games with the y-axis.

you can't possibly be serious...

so, again, you claim "goff's extremes are greater" than brady's (apparently, incredibly and indeed with a straight face), so to you brady's chart is pretty bitchin', eh? it's an example of what a seasoned vet's chart looks like when compared to the inconsistent chart of an inexperienced upstart, right?

and the other charts i posted (which, no surprise here, belong to other qbs you're quite fond of compared to goff), they impress you as well, more examples of what, if we're very luck, goff might be able to post some day? is that right?

:D

max wrote:How about the simple fact that Goff had a variance of 139.2 rating points (158.3-19.1) from his best game to his worst game. When was the last time a QB did that in a single season.

well, yes, "simple" (as in you have to be kidding me) does come to mind.... but since you asked, do any of these count?

25.0 - 150.0 - warner 2007
28.5 - 122.7 - montana 1994
35.0 - 129.6 - p.manning 2001
22.5 - 122.9 - brady 2003
29.6 - 138.4 - ryan 2008
34.3 - 154.5 - rodgers 2014
17.8 - 118.9 - aikman 1991

need more?

 by dieterbrock
5 years 11 months ago
 Total posts:   11512  
 Joined:  Mar 31 2015
United States of America   New Jersey
Hall of Fame

max wrote:OK, a1. I think I got it.

You added an extra game to Brady's chart at week 18. I see that you corrected that here.

Another thing you did was crop the y-axis to exaggerate the extremes. Thats an old presentation trick. I get it. You're a funny guy, but I'm an old engineer who has seen all that crap a million times before.

Here's what Brady's chart looks like when you use the same y-axis as Goff's.

You can see that Goffs extremes are greater. I get the point that no QB will have a flat trend line. But some QBs have greater variability than others, and Goff is one of those guys right now because of his inconsistency.

Image

Actually your chart shows exactly what all you data manipulators have as your golden goose. The Chicago game.

Data analysis 101 is constantly focusing on the mean. Looking at Goff’s data where you throw out his high game and his low and wow. Different story.

Would think an engineer would be capable of that kind of thought process.

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364 posts Jul 11 2025