[AvengerRam]

How many games does it take to create a trend?

More than 2, I’d say.

Let’s see what happens in Chicago.

[Elmgrovegnome]

Remember he was nearly as off in Detroit where weather was not a factor.

So weather isn't what the Lions and Broncos games have in common.

I think Detroit and last year's Atlanta game have a common theme. They both came after a week off. And Goff was not as sharp, or was out of rhythm.

[Elmgrovegnome]

I agree with Zach. It makes sense about the defenses. Not only did they throw Goff out of sync, but it took McVay until the half to adjust his strategy to counter them. So it three him off a bit too.


The Bears aren't as worrisome for me because their schedule is weak and they lost to the good teams that they played, plus a pretty bad one. I just hope the cold doesn't affect Jarred so much.

[aeneas1]

the notion that goff doesn't play well in cold weather strikes me as an enormous reach given the sample size, no? same goes for him not playing well against top defenses.

generally speaking, qbs don't make a living lighting up the league's top defenses on the road, the #2 ranked defense in offensive points allowed (cowboys) shut down brees last thursday night... sure, top qbs have booked great games against top defenses on the road, or at neutral sites, but it's certainly not a slam dunk it will happen. as for goff, he's only faced 2 top 5 defenses on the road since mcvay has been hc, and he's 1-1 in those games, a tiny sample size to be sure.

however seattle is a top 10 defense in offensive points allowed thru week 13, and goff and the rams hung 33 on them in seattle, the saints are ranked at 13th thru week 13, and goff and the rams hung 35 on them in new orleans, does that count for anything?

anyway, for shits and giggles:

there have been 64 games played in 20 degree temps or lower since 2010, here's how they shook out... in 14 of these games (22%), qbs posted ratings of 100+, while their teams averaged 35 points per game and booked a 10-3-1 record - on the opposite side of the spectrum, in 10 of these games (16%), qbs posted ratings in the 50's or lower, while their teams averaged 13 points per game and booked a 3-7-0 record:

anyway, i think it's pretty silly to constantly come up "goff won't be elite until x" milestones.

[PARAM]

the notion that goff doesn't play well in cold weather strikes me as an enormous reach given the sample size, no?

......

however seattle is a top 10 defense in offensive points allowed thru week 13, and goff and the rams hung 33 on them in seattle, the saints are ranked at 13th thru week 13, and goff and the rams hung 35 on them in new orleans, does that count for anything?

......

anyway, i think it's pretty silly to constantly come up "goff won't be elite until x" milestones.

Did he ever play in cold weather in college? Up in Washington or Oregon?
Does cold weather affect only the QB?

The Rams offense can hang high numbers on any defense it would appear.

Hmm. Was Peyton Manning "not elite" until he beat the Bears in a Superbowl? And then not elite for a decade more until winning one with Denver? There's no way of knowing if Goff is "elite" whether he accomplishes this or that. Time will tell if he's elite.

[max]

the notion that goff doesn't play well in cold weather strikes me as an enormous reach given the sample size, no? same goes for him not playing well against top defenses.

generally speaking, qbs don't make a living lighting up the league's top defenses on the road, the #2 ranked defense in offensive points allowed (cowboys) shut down brees last thursday night... sure, top qbs have booked great games against top defenses on the road, or at neutral sites, but it's certainly not a slam dunk it will happen. as for goff, he's only faced 2 top 5 defenses on the road since mcvay has been hc, and he's 1-1 in those games, a tiny sample size to be sure.

however seattle is a top 10 defense in offensive points allowed thru week 13, and goff and the rams hung 33 on them in seattle, the saints are ranked at 13th thru week 13, and goff and the rams hung 35 on them in new orleans, does that count for anything?

anyway, for shits and giggles:

there have been 64 games played in 20 degree temps or lower since 2010, here's how they shook out... in 14 of these games (22%), qbs posted ratings of 100+, while their teams averaged 35 points per game and booked a 10-3-1 record - on the opposite side of the spectrum, in 10 of these games (16%), qbs posted ratings in the 50's or lower, while their teams averaged 13 points per game and booked a 3-7-0 record:

VirtualBox_2018-12-04_01-29-57.png

anyway, i think it's pretty silly to constantly come up "goff won't be elite until x" milestones.

That’s great stuff a1.

So an average performance in cold weather is 81.4. I don’t expect anything better than that this Sunday from Goff. My guess is that we will see a lot of Gurley and the debut of the kids, Kelly and Davis.

Honestly, I’m just hoping Goff doesn’t turn the ball over more than once. On the road against a good D in the cold, you can write it down, Goff will not fare well. Not saying many QBs would outside of Brady, but we ain’t winning this game if we need to rely on Goff having a good game. I just hope Mcvay doesn’t rely on it.

[snackdaddy]

Against KC Goff was very good. Against the Lions not so much. We have short memories and we're only as good as our last game. I don't recall anyone saying the Cowboys had a great defense until they beat the Saints. Who saw that coming? This is the NFL. Sometimes defenses come up with a good game plan. Although I don't know if holding a team to 30 points was that great a game plan. I've seen the Patriots win by 20 when Brady isn't all that sharp. Its about knowing how to win.

[aeneas1]

here's a look at the qbs that booked 100+ rating in sub 20 weather dating back to 2010, and those who booked ratings in the 50s or lower.

in 2013 the cowboys played in chicago on december 9, the temp was 8 degrees at kickoff, both romo and mccown booked 100+ qb ratings and combined for 7 td passes, bears won 45-28... not sure anyone has called mccown elite because of this great game in freezing temps.

2013 cowboys @ chicago, 8 degrees at kickoff:

[aeneas1]

Against KC Goff was very good. Against the Lions not so much. We have short memories and we're only as good as our last game.

so true.

I don't recall anyone saying the Cowboys had a great defense until they beat the Saints.

i think plenty of folks knew about the cowboys defense heading into that game, how they ranked top 5 in offensive points allowed, it was mentioned during the broadcast, and i know i posted about it, but that's a far cry from folks believing for a moment that they would completely shut down brees and the saints, that was a shocker.

[dieterbrock]

I don't recall anyone saying the Cowboys had a great defense until they beat the Saints. .

I don't have all the data to back it up, but IIRC the Saints record on the road with Brees/Payton hasn't been that stellar over the years, 2 tough road games coming up
2018 5-1 record, Home 38 ppg Away 32 ppg
2017 4-4 record, Home 30 ppg Away 26 ppg
2016 3-5 record, Home 32 ppg Away 26 ppg
2015 3-5 record, Home 33 ppg Away 19 ppg