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 by max
4 years 6 months ago
 Total posts:   5714  
 Joined:  Jun 01 2015
United States of America   Sarasota, FL
Hall of Fame

I'm not sure if it means anything, but Goff has a top level completion rate inside the 20, but a mediocre one inside the 10. The difference is 10 percentage points, that's a huge drop off compared to other starting QBs.

Why would that be?

 by /zn/
4 years 6 months ago
 Total posts:   6942  
 Joined:  Jun 28 2015
United States of America   Maine
Hall of Fame

max wrote:I'm not sure if it means anything, but Goff has a top level completion rate inside the 20, but a mediocre one inside the 10. The difference is 10 percentage points, that's a huge drop off compared to other starting QBs.

Why would that be?


I think that difference is kind of a mirage. Doesn't espn's throws inside opp-19 to goal include throws inside opp-10 to goal numbers? Obviously they do, so both his redzone sacks and his 1 redzone INT come inside the 10. They count in both metrics, but he just has fewer throws inside the 10, so they hurt the qb rating more.

Is there a reason for those 3 negative plays occurring inside the 10? Probably not, I suspect it's just sheer randomness.

Meanwhile Goff's highest rated category according to the field position metric is throwing inside the opp-19, where he rates out at 105.0.

Image

 by max
4 years 6 months ago
 Total posts:   5714  
 Joined:  Jun 01 2015
United States of America   Sarasota, FL
Hall of Fame

/zn/ wrote:I think that difference is kind of a mirage. Doesn't espn's throws inside opp-19 to goal include throws inside opp-10 to goal numbers? Obviously they do, so both his redzone sacks and his 1 redzone INT come inside the 10. They count in both metrics, but he just has fewer throws inside the 10, so they hurt the qb rating more.

Is there a reason for those 3 negative plays occurring inside the 10? Probably not, I suspect it's just sheer randomness.

Meanwhile Goff's highest rated category according to the field position metric is throwing inside the opp-19, where he rates out at 105.0.

Image


But why the difference in Comp% from 65% (inside 20) to 55% (inside 10)?

From PFR,
Jared Goff 33 of 51 and 11 of 20

 by /zn/
4 years 6 months ago
 Total posts:   6942  
 Joined:  Jun 28 2015
United States of America   Maine
Hall of Fame

max wrote:But why the difference in Comp% from 65% (inside 20) to 55% (inside 10)?


Why? Random.

 by max
4 years 6 months ago
 Total posts:   5714  
 Joined:  Jun 01 2015
United States of America   Sarasota, FL
Hall of Fame

Dick84 wrote:Totally speculating.. but I'd guess that percentage is lower for most NFL QBs. Less space to defend.


About 6 or 7 are better. Most are actually lower, but how much lower is the issue...
Image

 by /zn/
4 years 6 months ago
 Total posts:   6942  
 Joined:  Jun 28 2015
United States of America   Maine
Hall of Fame

max wrote:About 6 or 7 are better. Most are actually lower, but how much lower is the issue...


Issue? What "issue"?

In your stat, he is in the top 10, which for some odd reason you're trying to dismiss.

Here's another, related stat. He's 11th in this metric: %Touchdowns/Attempt, In 10: http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/lead ... L&rank=050

...

 by max
4 years 6 months ago
 Total posts:   5714  
 Joined:  Jun 01 2015
United States of America   Sarasota, FL
Hall of Fame

/zn/ wrote:Issue? What "issue"?

In your stat, he is in the top 10, which for some odd reason you're trying to dismiss.

Here's another, related stat. He's 11th in this metric: %Touchdowns/Attempt, In 10: http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/lead ... L&rank=050

...


I’m wondering why his completion% drops 10 points when he goes from inside 20 to inside 10. That’s the biggest drop among starting QBs.

Inside the 10, Goff is only 11 of 20. You think that’s too small sample size? Maybe.

 by /zn/
4 years 6 months ago
 Total posts:   6942  
 Joined:  Jun 28 2015
United States of America   Maine
Hall of Fame

max wrote:I’m wondering why his completion% drops 10 points when he goes from inside 20 to inside 10. That’s the biggest drop among starting QBs.

Inside the 10, Goff is only 11 of 20. You think that’s too small sample size? Maybe.


But according to your own stat he's in the top 10 among other qbs. So there's no "issue." Whatever lowers completion percentage inside the 10 works universally.

 by max
4 years 6 months ago
 Total posts:   5714  
 Joined:  Jun 01 2015
United States of America   Sarasota, FL
Hall of Fame

/zn/ wrote:But according to your own stat he's in the top 10 among other qbs. So there's no "issue." Whatever lowers completion percentage inside the 10 works universally.


No. Goff is 26th in completion% inside the 10.

 by PARAM
4 years 6 months ago
 Total posts:   13219  
 Joined:  Jul 15 2015
Barbados   Just far enough North of Philadelphia
Hall of Fame

Dick84 wrote:Whole team sucks today... that's on the coaches.

But.. um.. yeah...


Yeah, kinda predictable

1st down, run
2nd down, sack
3rd down, inc or 6 yard pass
4th down, punt

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157 posts Jul 08 2025