[aeneas1]

Or...

Kurt Warner: 124 games, 174 turnovers, 1.40 per game

first 70 starts, to name a few...

[PARAM]

It's wild to me that people can't accept qualitative differences in the same numbers.

What is the difference between 2 games with 7 turnovers and 11 games with 8? Qualitatively speaking, those 11 games were much, much better than those 2 games.

[aeneas1]

It's wild to me that people can't accept qualitative differences in the same numbers.
For example.. Joey Bosa and Dante Fowler had the same number of sacks last year.

how does this apply to your take on goff? i mean you know fowler played 60% more snaps than bosa, right?

1995-2000, qb turnover rate per game, qb's first 70 starts:

[PARAM]

I'm talking about the actual turnovers.

As in what throws they're being asked to make in what context.. etc..
And.. as I've said repeatedly on here... it's the bone-headed, unforced mistakes that worry me. Because there's no rhyme or reason to them.

Okay, since you've obviously examined in-depth the actual turnovers, he's had 15. How many of them were "boneheaded"? Getting clocked by a LB from the blindside and fumbling for instance.....is that "boneheaded"? How about getting clocked by a DL as he's releasing the pass? Boneheaded? Somebody beating their guy and whacking his arm causing a fumble? Boneheaded? Obviously, "boneheaded" is somewhat subjective as two people could have two different ideas what construes "boneheadedness".

Just like last season for instance.....some fans believe, 'no playoffs' = terrible year.
Some fans believe, 'no playoffs' = disappointing year but 1 missed FG or two 3rd and 16 conversions away from 11-5.
Some fans may even believe, 'with all the injuries to the OL, the reshuffling, the fact we played with so many different line combos, 9-7 was pretty respectable when it's all said and done.
If we factor in as of 11:30 EST on December 10, the Rams have had 4 consecutive winning seasons for the first time since 1986, 9-7 doesn't taste as sour as it might.

I get it Dick, I truly do. You believe he's got turnover issues because sometimes they're boneheaded. Some of us don't think it's a turnover issue. Different sets of eyes. Different ideas of boneheaded. Different opinions.

What I don't get is why other fans not believing it's an issue, is an issue with you?

[aeneas1]

I'm talking about the actual turnovers.

so not only are goff's turnover issues worse than other qbs, but the manner in which he turns the ball over is also worse than other qbs, do i have that right?

[69RamFan]

I don't know if you're responding to me.. but I'll respond to the post.

The turnovers I've discussed have been turnovers that are unforced and come from just awful decisions or throws (my interpretation of the plays, obviously).

The Sherman Int in the second 9ers game? Ridiculous. The fumble in that game from not sliding? Ridiculous.

If we want to look other throws in this vein? The pick-6 against the 9ers last season or the Int to start the second half of the Pittsburgh game last season (1st and 10 on the 50, down one td).

Yes.. Goff makes some excellent plays and good decisions... HE'S SUPPOSED TO.

What I don't do is play the.. "Why can't he do what Mahomes and Rogers do?" game.. I understand who Goff is and what he can/can't do. I just want him to make good decsions within that framework.

The Parcells quote? Well.. that was in the context of taking chances to make a big play... the turnovers I'm talking about aren't that, from my eyes. I guess you could lump the Steelers Int into that... but, it was a shitty decision and throw.

No I wasn't responding to you directly,,, just in general...

As I stated in other postings,,, not sure if it was this site or another...
I did state that the INT/Sherman and the fumble on Goffs running the ball and not sliding,,, was on him...

But at the same time, the other INT/pick6 was not on him, that was on DH not running into the right spot,,,, IMO,,, he ran outside the block instead of inside the block in where he had two more free blockers to free up the middle of the field,,,

Second, McVay for some reason, stuck to his 11PG,,, I believe 89% of the time,,, and never did any power runs up the middle... until the end of the game...

All of the mistakes were in the first half and early 3rd qtr... after we took the lead,,,,
McVay should of change it up with some 12PG and do some pwr runs in the game...

We can't always put the blame on Goff,,, yes he is a big part of the game,,, and I agree that he should make better decision, especially on those running plays and sliding...

On that INT/from Sherman,,, hard to tell what Goff was seeing... that was just a bonehead throw...

But other games,,, like against Miami,,,
I just think in that game,,, McVay got out coached in that game,,
and tried to make a point on his 11PG and he can beat what they throw at him,

But even after the game,,, he even admitted, he didnt have an answer right off the bat.

On the Fumbles, that was not Goffs fault,,, that was a missed assignment by DH IMO,,,
and a missed block by Everett coming from the blind side..

On the INTs,,, one was well disguised, I just call it a great play from the ILBers, and Goff didn't see him...

on the other INT,,, Goff had a DL man come right up the middle,,, and made his throw go off...

The quote I put up by Parcells, I was just basically saying is, I think he makes more escape plays than bad plays by taking chances...

As for last season on specific games,,,, I'm not to fresh in memory unless I review some game tapes,,, so really not going there...

Just concern about this season...

[aeneas1]

Not what I'm talking about. Break down win rate on pass rush.. how long it took to get to QB.. etc..
The quality of the actual sack.
That's what I'm talking about with Goff's ints. He has brain-fart, catastrophic TOs that pop up for no reason.

win rate, time to qb, sack count, etc., etc., etc., all quantitative not qualitative, and it's very easy to quantify bosa's production vs fowlers, so i'm not sure where you're going with this?

re goff, it seems clear that your (subjective) opinion of him is that he has a turnover problem that's worse than most qbs, and that the timing of his turnovers, the degree of harm they cause, and the poor judgement on his part that results in these turnovers is worse than most qbs as well.

i just don't happen to agree with any of this, not because i'm a goff fanboy, not because i feel a need to mitigate his turnovers, but because the numbers clearly (imo) don't support the take, nor do i believe the "quality" of his turnovers is any worse than other qbs.

some of the things that i have seen that makes goff, mcvay and the rams offense look bad include when the rams continue to get fooled by dlinemen in 6+ man fronts who drop into shallow coverage and pick off passes, or when one-read rb screens continue to result in the back getting caught up in trench traffic, unable to find space, giving the qb nowhere to throw the ball, or requiring him force the ball (or throw it away).

[moklerman]

win rate, time to qb, sack count, etc., etc., etc., all quantitative not qualitative, and it's very easy to quantify bosa's production vs fowlers, so i'm not sure where you're going with this?

re goff, it seems clear that your (subjective) opinion of him is that he has a turnover problem that's worse than most qbs, and that the timing of his turnovers, the degree of harm they cause, and the poor judgement on his part that results in these turnovers is worse than most qbs as well.

i just don't happen to agree with any of this, not because i'm a goff fanboy, not because i feel a need to mitigate his turnovers, but because the numbers clearly (imo) don't support the take, nor do i believe the "quality" of his turnovers is any worse than other qbs.

some of the things that i have seen that makes goff, mcvay and the rams offense look bad include when the rams continue to get fooled by dlinemen in 6+ man fronts who drop into shallow coverage and pick off passes, or when one-read rb screens continue to result in the back getting caught up in trench traffic, unable to find space, giving the qb nowhere to throw the ball, or requiring him force the ball (or throw it away).

Goff is 22nd in INT% which loosely correlates with his passer rating(24th). Neither is good or very good. His turnovers are on the high side just about any way you slice it in terms of the season. But, as has been rightly pointed out, turnovers or turnover % alone won't tell the whole story. That has to be weighted against production. Warner had a lot of turnovers but the Rams scored so much, that the impact was lessened. At least for a short while.

But, something I'm curious if you've ever seen or looked at is TD% minus INT%. Both of those are strong indicators when looking at QB production and efficiency but I don't think I've ever seen it used as a metric. Kind of the football equivalent of slugging percentage? I know the passer rating formula is already basically that but it also incorporates arbitrary numbers as "perfection".

For example: Aaron Rodgers would be 8.7 - 0.9 for a 7.8.
Russel Wilson : 7.8 - 2.6 for 5.2.
Patrick Mahomes: 6.6 - 1.0 for 5.6.

I really don't understand why perfection isn't considered 100% completion, 99 ypa and 1TD/completion?

The TD% - INT% basically removes completion % and YPA which both can easily be skewed. A high completion% is good but it is sometimes misrepresentative IMO. Same thing with YPA. Those can both be inflated by scheme and personnel and make the QB look more productive than he might actually be. Jeff Garcia's time in TB as an example. Brees to a lesser extent.

[CRamsFly]

I found a table of Career QB Interception % from Football Database (http://www.footballdb.com) - I assume this is accurate? As this is only INT%, it doesn't include fumbles. Sorry about the format - I can't figure out how I can embed a spreadsheet.

Player Int%
1 Aaron Rodgers, 2005-20 1.35
2 Patrick Mahomes, 2017-20 1.44
3 Dak Prescott, 2016-20 1.74
4 Colin Kaepernick, 2011-16 1.77
5 Tom Brady, 2000-20 1.81
6 Derek Carr, 2014-20 1.84
7 Russell Wilson, 2012-20 1.89
8 Carson Wentz, 2016-20 2.01
9 Sam Bradford, 2010-18 2.06
10 Alex Smith, 2005-20 2.07
11 Neil O'Donnell, 1990-03 2.11
12 Nick Foles, 2012-20 2.14
13 Deshaun Watson, 2017-20 2.14
14 Matt Ryan, 2008-20 2.16
15 Donovan McNabb, 1999-11 2.18
16 Case Keenum, 2012-20 2.24
17 Jeff Garcia, 1999-09,11 2.26
18 Jared Goff, 2016-20 2.26
19 Drew Brees, 2001-20 2.29
20 Matthew Stafford, 2009-20 2.32
21 Mark Brunell, 1993-11 2.33
22 Brian Hoyer, 2009-20 2.33
23 Kirk Cousins, 2012-20 2.34
24 David Garrard, 2002-13 2.37
25 Joe Flacco, 2008-20 2.37
26 Jason Campbell, 2005-14 2.38
27 Ryan Tannehill, 2012-20 2.39
28 Steve Bono, 1985-99 2.47
29 Rich Gannon, 1987-93,95-04 2.47
30 Marcus Mariota, 2015-20 2.51
31 Andrew Luck, 2012-19 2.52
32 Kyle Orton, 2005-14 2.54
33 Philip Rivers, 2004-20 2.57
34 Joe Montana, 1979-90,92-94 2.58
35 Steve Young, 1985-99 2.58
36 Ben Roethlisberger, 2004-20 2.58
37 Bernie Kosar, 1985-96 2.59
38 Chad Pennington, 2000-10 2.59
39 Byron Leftwich, 2003-12 2.62
40 Steve McNair, 1995-07 2.62
41 Andy Dalton, 2011-20 2.65
42 Peyton Manning, 1998-15 2.68
43 Tony Romo, 2004-17 2.7
44 Matt Schaub, 2004-20 2.72
45 Ken O'Brien, 1983-93 2.72
46 Michael Vick, 2001-07,09-15 2.74
47 Cam Newton, 2011-20 2.76
48 Brad Johnson, 1992-08 2.82
49 Blake Bortles, 2014-20 2.85
50 Jeff George, 1990-02,04,06 2.85

[CRamsFly]

I'm actually surprised that Goff is #18 in career INT%, just ahead of Drew Brees!

I think some of this discussion about the "bonehead" turnover is perception, especially perception based on recent performance. For example, #8 on the career leader on INT% is Carson Wentz. But in 2020, everyone thinks that Wentz has been horrific on turnovers. I think many fans believe that their QB often throws "boneheaded" interceptions. (Maybe not Green Bay fans, unless we're talking Brett Favre)

I do think that Goff's performance in 2019-2020 is not as good as 2017-2018. I'm hoping that McVay, Goff and the Rams can get back to that level of offensive performance.