[aeneas1]

nflpickwatch.com scours the net and tallies game picks made by media outlets, the site usually includes 100+ picks each week.

elliot harrison, an nfl.com analyst, leads the nflpickwatch.com pack on the year with a 68.2% success rate - he's picked the rams to knock off the saints.

jason la canfora, mr. scoop, comes in at dead last on among pickers with a 52.3% success rate on the year - he's picked the saints to beat the rams.

on a side note, kurt warner ranks one rung above la canfora on the year, second to dead last, ha ha.

so there's that.

elliot harrison's take:

Los Angeles Rams 28, New Orleans Saints 24
3:05 p.m. ET (FOX) | Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans)

The question on most people's minds, presumably: Will this title bout resemble the Week 9 game between these two teams? The Saints and Rams played arcade football in early November, trading blows (and points) until New Orleans emerged with a 45-35 win. It was a huge factor in the Saints earning the very home-field advantage they will enjoy when Los Angeles comes to town this Sunday. So, will the NFC Championship Game mirror that previous meeting? No way.

Two and a half months later, both defenses are different -- and, frankly, much better. Start with the visitors, who were without a key cog in their defense back in November. With CB Aqib Talib sidelined by injury, coordinator Wade Phillips was forced to start Troy Hill opposite Marcus Peters. Talib's ready to rock for this Sunday's affair. Moreover, Aaron Donald's production really picked up after that loss. The All-Pro defensive tackle -- and likely Defensive Player of the Year for the second consecutive season -- recorded 10.5 sacks, 20 QB hits, 13 tackles for a loss and 31 overall tackles since the loss ... in only seven games. Phillips' defense as a whole picked it up during the back stretch, as well. After getting embarrassed by the Russell Wilson-led Seahawks and the Patrick Mahomes Experience in back-to-back weeks, L.A.'s defense came out of the bye and authored three quality starts in December, and then another last Saturday night against Cowboys. The outliers being a 30-23 loss to the Eagles and Nick Foles (shocking ... not really), and in Week 17 against the 49ers, when the team tapped the brakes late with a huge lead (L.A. was up 48-17 midway through the fourth quarter before the Niners tacked on two late touchdowns).

The Saints started off the 2018 campaign with a shocking 48-40 home loss to the Fitzmagic Bucs. But New Orleans matured into top-shelf Scotch over the remainder of the regular season, and defensive coordinator Dennis Allen deserves a ton of credit for getting the Saints to where they are today. After looking like a lost heap of preseason promise through the first eight games (a stretch that ended with the Saints spotting Sean McVay's outfit 35 points), Allen's side of the ball responded. Over the next seven games, New Orleans gave up 102 points -- that's 14 and change per outing. (We're not counting that meaningless Week 17 dance-off with the Panthers when Sean Payton rested numerous starters.) Last week, Foles shredded New Orleans early, but then Marshon Lattimore came up with the biggest takeaway of the Saints' season. After that play early in the second quarter, the only Philly special was a deep drive that resulted in another Lattimore pick (with a little help from Alshon Jeffery). New Orleans didn't allow a single point in the final 49 minutes of play. Thus, I have a difficult time seeing 45-35 2.0.

So, who wins? Taking the Rams. Jared Goff is out of his slump. Todd Gurley is healthier. C.J. Anderson suddenly appears to be the top RB2 since Bronko Nagurski was spelling Red Grange -- and he's plowing people like the Bronk, too. McVay has almost all of his tools at his disposal. Three more factors worth noting:

1) The Saints' offense hasn't been the Saints' offense for some time. Since Week 13, New Orleans has reached 30 points once. And three times during this span, Payton's crew has failed to eclipse 20. (Again, that is excluding the Week 17 "contest" with Carolina.)

2) Alvin Kamara is one of the most explosive and exciting players in the NFL today. Yet, since taking that huge (illegal) hit from Jaylon Smith in Week 13, the running back's productivity is way down. During this span, including the Divisional Round, he is well under his season averages in rushing yards per game, yards per carry and yards per catch. His touchdown production is down, too, although I've always felt that is overrated as a measure of individual performance. It's still a team stat, really.

3) I have often stated that Goff might be the premier intermediate thrower in the game. Well, he's certainly the most prolific. The third-year QB leads the league in passing on throws that travel 10-30 yards (2,223 yards on the season). His 11.1 yards per attempt on these throws is an excellent figure.

[laram]

Well here in Nawlins not surprisingly the natives are quite confident.

The Saints run a far more diverse offense than the Cowboys with a HOF qb so I would take nothing from that game.

I’m telling you very few people are considering the Ted Ginn effect.

He will stretch the defense and if the Rams zone Thomas Ginn will force man to his side which could open all kinds of stuff for the running game and Kamara underneath.

Rams didn’t see his speed first time around, it will make a difference.

He’s running all the clear outs!!

[SWAdude]

Well here in Nawlins not surprisingly the natives are quite confident.

The Saints run a far more diverse offense than the Cowboys with a HOF qb so I would take nothing from that game.

I’m telling you very few people are considering the Ted Ginn effect.

He will stretch the defense and if the Rams zone Thomas Ginn will force man to his side which could open all kinds of stuff for the running game and Kamara underneath.

Rams didn’t see his speed first time around, it will make a difference.

He’s running all the clear outs!!

6 teams, 33 yoa........

They are reaching if you ask me.

But no one ever does.

[aeneas1]

The Saints run a far more diverse offense than the Cowboys with a HOF qb so I would take nothing from that game.

you're talking about the hof qb who put up 10 offensive points on the team the rams just smoked for 30? the hof qb who, in his last 5 outings, has led his team to an average of 20.2 points per game while throwing 5 tds, 5 picks, for a qb rating of 84.4? that hof qb? didn't ginn play last week when the saints put up just 20 offensive points at home and barely got by the eagles?

the ram defense has blown chunks against the league's top qbs but they seem to be coming around a bit, can the same be said about that hof qb?

[aeneas1]

more heartache for saints fans on the way!

[laram]

you're talking about the hof qb who put up 10 offensive points on the team the rams just smoked for 30? the hof qb who, in his last 5 outings, has led his team to an average of 20.2 points per game while throwing 5 tds, 5 picks, for a qb rating of 84.4? that hof qb? didn't ginn play last week when the saints put up just 20 offensive points at home and barely got by the eagles?

the ram defense has blown chunks against the league's top qbs but they seem to be coming around a bit, can the same be said about that hof qb?

Yeah the same guy who put up 350 and 4 TDS vs the Rams in the regular season.

The same guy who is the most accurate qb in nfl history with the most yards thrown in nfl history!!

Yeah....same guy!!

[69RamFan]

I've been one of the harshest critics of Suh's play this season, because I knew what this guy is capable of doing and I was convinced he wasn't giving 100% every week. After watching him play in our first playoff game, I could be wrong here, but I'd swear blind that Suh has been sandbagging all season. Surprisingly, he looked like his old self again last week. And it couldn't of come at a better time of the year. The big question for me going into this game is can the performance of the Rams defense against the Cowboys carry over into the Saints game. I personally think its a real possibility. For this to happen, first and foremost, I feel like the onus will be on Suh to put in another dominant performance, as Suh stood out as probably the biggest component in our defensive upturn against Dallas. If Suh is firing on all cylinders I think the Rams have a great chance tomorrow. When you consider how badly the Rams defense played against the Saints last time around, yet the Rams were still able to tie the Saints with under five minutes to go. It most definitely gives me reason to believe we can win this game. The crowd noise will be an issue for the Rams offense, but I've not forgotten how well Jared Goff has played in his trips to the Superdome in his young career. So hand on heart, I honestly feel like the Rams have got a great chance to win this game as long as they don't make any silly mistakes, like last year against Atlanta in the playoffs.

He has been sandbagging,,,, he has been playing like a smart vet,,, saving his body for the real games... "The Playoffs"

If you look at other sports,,, like basketball... famous players take nights off to save their bodies through a long season...

But when the playoff started,,, then you see them take it to another level...

Younger players, they are the ones that you will see them giving all of their efforts, cause they want to make a name for themselves.... and once they reach that stage.... then they can do what Suh!!! is doing...

The Numbers that Suh has giving us for this season,,, are basically standard.... and now the playoffs has started and he is giving us outstanding numbers.... I'll take that all day long... especially for a ring....

[dieterbrock]

Yeah the same guy who put up 350 and 4 TDS vs the Rams in the regular season.

The same guy who is the most accurate qb in nfl history with the most yards thrown in nfl history!!

Yeah....same guy!!

So Goff is good for 390 yards and 3td then?

[aeneas1]

So Goff is good for 390 yards and 3td then?

only if sammy watkins joins the rams before kickoff.

[Neil039]

Neil039 had a day dream today 38-10 Rams....if it comes true I am on my way to Vegas for my Super Bowl bet.