[Elvis]

If you like the Rams over this year, you can now get them at -110 for over 7.5...

http://lvasports.com/nfl-season-wins-betting/

NFL Season Wins Betting

Posted on 2015-07-27 by FrankB

Season Wins lines have been up for months and Nevada sports books have something of a love/hate attitude towards these bets. They love holding onto the players money for the time it takes to settle the wagers. Those betting in the late spring will have had there money tied up in the neighborhood of eight months by the time they get a result. Whatever the house does with those funds during that stretch of time you can be sure the money doesn’t sit idle. They’re putting it to work while you wait until New Years comes and goes before getting your money back into action.

What the books hate about Season Wins bets is that they’ve fared mediocre to poorly on these for a long time. It’s primarily the more educated bettors that get involved with Season Wins when they first get posted. The casual bettors have no interest in looking that far ahead nor devoting any of their bankroll to such a long-term proposition. If the average fan gets involved with NFL futures they most often opt for Super Bowl or Conf championship bets which is something they can do preseason or at anytime during the regular season.

Betting six months in advance means you’re making some educated assumptions regarding team personnel and their use along with the impact of new players and coaches. What many rely heavily on is schedule analysis and pythagorean discrepancies. Pythagorean basically takes a teams stats and states how many games a team with those numbers should have won. What handicappers take from this is how good or bad a team may have ran that year. For example, in 2013 the NYJets went 8-8. Their estimated Pythagorean Wins were only 5.5 that year so they seemingly ran good. The expectation then is that their initial season wins number may be posted a bit high and that sustaining whatever good fortune that allowed them to exceed those 5.5 theoretical wins would be unlikely. The line on the Jets season wins closed at 8 and they proceeded to go 4-12 last year. The preference is to target teams that over performed the previous season rather than those that under performed and there are a few basic reasons for this that will be discussed in the coming weeks. While the Jets dropped off last year as expected, 2014s most popular preseasons OV bet, the Tampa Bay Bucs (-24.5% actual wins vs pyth wins in 2013) finished the season 2-14.

Schedule analysis primarily consists of examining the quality of a teams opponents for the upcoming campaign. Other factors regarding schedule that can be looked at are the scheduling situations that a team will encounter throughout the season. A good free resource for looking at such details is available from KillerSports.com Killer Sports Season Wins Info

Some surprising inequities in the leagues schedules exist and Killer Sports did a good job of presenting them. For example, the Seattle Seahawks must play four times vs a team that will be coming off their bye week. No other team has that distinction while nine teams never face a team coming off a bye. The Dolphins seem to have it pretty good this season as they rank at or near the top of multiple advantageous categories. Miami never has to face a team who last played on Thurs (a team with 10 days rest) yet plays 3 times vs teams who play their next game on Thurs. They’re the only team in the league that plays three sandwich games (opponent has a div game both before and after playing the Dolphins) and they’re the only team that plays four teams who are on the road for the second or third week in a row. These are just some of the things professional bettors may consider when formulating their season win projections.

The biggest leap from a teams 2014 win total vs their opening 2015 O/U total was on Tampa.
The Bucs won 2 games in 2014 and the line on their Season Wins for 2015 opened 5.5 OV.

The biggest drop from a teams 2014 win total vs their opening 2015 O/U total was on Arizona.
The Cards won 11 games in 2014 and the line on their Season Wins for 2015 opened 8.0 UN.

Both Tampa and Arizona have been bet up since these numbers opened at CGTechnology.

49ers 8.5 wins (OVER -120, UNDER -110)
Bears 7 wins (OVER -115, UNDER -115)
Bengals 8.5 wins (OVER -105, UNDER -125)
Bills 8.5 wins (OVER -110 , UNDER -120)
Broncos 10 wins (OVER -130 , UNDER +100)
Browns 6 wins (OVER -125 , UNDER -105)
Buccaneers 5.5 wins (OVER -130 , UNDER +100)
Cardinals 8 wins (OVER -110 , UNDER -120)
Chargers 8.5 wins (OVER -115 , UNDER -115)
Chiefs 8.5 (OVER -105 , UNDER -125)
Colts 9.5 wins (OVER -120 , UNDER -110)
Cowboys 9.5 wins (OVER -115, UNDER -115)
Dolphins 8 wins (OVER +100 , UNDER -130)
Eagles 9 wins (OVER -110 , UNDER -120)
Falcons 8 wins (OVER -120 , UNDER -110)
Giants 8 wins (OVER +100 , UNDER -130)
Jaguars 5.5 wins (OVER -110, UNDER -120)
Jets 6.5 wins (OVER -110 , UNDER -120)
Lions 8.5 wins (OVER -110 , UNDER -120)
Packers 10 wins (OVER -145 , UNDER +115)
Panthers 8.5 wins (OVER -110, UNDER -120)
Patriots 10.5 wins (OVER -135 , UNDER +105)
Raiders 4.5 wins (OVER -140 , UNDER +110)
Rams 7.5 wins (OVER -110, UNDER -120)
Ravens 9 wins (OVER -120 , UNDER -110)
Redskins 6 wins (OVER -115 , UNDER -115)
Saints 9 wins (OVER -110, UNDER -120)
Seahawks 11 wins (OVER +100, UNDER -130)
Steelers 8.5 wins (OVER -115, UNDER -115)
Texans 8.5 wins (OVER +100 , UNDER -130)
Titans 5 wins (OVER -130 , UNDER +100)
Vikings 6.5 wins (OVER -120 , UNDER -110)

[kayfabe]

Code: Select allJust did a little Pythagorean analysis myself (the formula is actually surprisingly simple
and is based soley on points for and against) to see where there might be some win value
this year (and there's a bunch of assumptions I'm making here, especially in terms of
team schedule strength, and the MAJOR assumption that each NFL team is just as good or
bad as last year's).  And basically I took each team's first fifteen games (throwing out
week #17 entirely, since I don't know who showed up for that week or not), and got the
stats below. 

First here's the legend --

PF       = Team points scored throughout the year (net of week #17)
PA       = Team points allowed throughout the year (net of week #17)
PyWP     = The expected Pythagorean win percentage.  The formula is just
                      1.0 / (1.0 + (PA/PF)^2.38)
AW       = Actual 2014 team wins
CurrOdds = Odds as reported in the above lvasports.com article
PyWins   = Expected wins this year (or simply PyWP * 16)
Diff     = The positive or negative differential between the expected
           Pythagorean wins and the current odds.  The bigger (or
           smaller), the more theoretical gambling opportunity


===============================================================
Team              PF   PA    PyWP  AW   CurrOdds  PyWns    Diff
NewEngland       459  296   .7396  12  10.5o-135  11.83   +1.33
Buffalo          326  280   .5895   9   8.5u-120   9.43   +0.93
Miami            364  336   .5475   8   8.0u-130   8.76   +0.76
NYJets           246  377   .2657   4   6.5u-120   4.25   -2.25
 
Pittsburgh       409  351   .5900  11   8.5o-115   9.44   +0.94
Cincinnati       348  317   .5552  10   8.5u-125   8.88   +0.38
Baltimore        389  292   .6643  10   9.0o-120  10.63   +1.63
Cleveland        289  317   .4452   7   6.0o-125   7.12   +1.12
 
Indianapolis     431  359   .6071  11   9.5o-120   9.71   +0.21
Houston          349  290   .6084   9   8.5u-130   9.74   +1.24
Jacksonville     232  389   .2261   3   5.5u-120   3.62   -1.88
Tennessee        244  411   .2606   2   5.0o-130   4.17   -0.83
 
Denver           435  340   .6430  12  10.0o-130  10.28   +0.28
KansasCity       334  274   .6157   9   8.5u-125   9.85   +1.35
SanDiego         341  329   .5213   9   8.5u-115   8.34   -0.16
Oakland          239  405   .2218   3   4.5o-140   3.55   -0.95
 
Dallas           423  335   .6353  12   9.5o-115  10.17   +0.67
Philadelphia     440  374   .5955  10   9.0u-120   9.52   +0.52
NYGiants         354  366   .4802   6   8.0u-130   7.68   -0.32
Washington       284  394   .3145   4   6.0u-115   5.03   -0.97
 
GreenBay         456  328   .6866  12  10.0o-145  10.99   +0.99
Detroit          301  252   .6042  11   8.5u-120   9.67   +1.17
Minnesota        312  334   .4596   7   6.5o-120   7.35   +0.85
Chicago          310  429   .3158   5   7.0u-115   5.05   -1.95
 
Carolina         305  371   .3855   7   8.5u-120   6.17   -2.33
NewOrleans       378  404   .4605   7   9.0u-120   7.37   -1.63
Atlanta          378  383   .4922   6   8.0o-120   7.87   -0.13
TampaBay         257  387   .2740   2   5.5o-130   4.38   -1.12
 
Seattle          374  248   .7266  12  11.0u-130  11.63   +0.63
Arizona          293  279   .5291  11   8.0u-120   8.46   +0.46
SanFrancisco     286  323   .4281   8   8.5o-120   6.85   -1.65
StLouis          318  334   .4708   6   7.5u-120   7.53   +0.03
===============================================================

So taking the 49ers as an example:  based solely on points scored and allowed prior to week #17,
the 49ers should've finished with a .428 win percentage or 6.85 wins.  But their actual win
total was 8...meaning they actually outperformed what was expected (i.e., their wins were close
but their losses weren't).  And this year they're at 8.5 over -120, which is even MORE than
they won last year, when they overperformed.  The question then is:  did the 49ers improve
enough over last year to justify 8.5 wins?  Is their schedule easier?  The Pythagorean analysis
doesn't consider any of that, but it would tell you to take the under on them this year.

And before you throw away these numbers, consider --

* This simple Pythagorean analysis correctly predicted New England and Seattle being the top two
  teams and meeting in the Super Bowl, it had New England (11.83) beating Seattle (11.63) in the game,
  it had the Patriots and Seahawks beating the Colts and Packers in Championship Week, and it actually
  went 9 for 11 in picking post-season winners.

* Arizona way overperformed last year:  11 wins vs. what should've been a 8.46 win team.  Denver
  overperformed too (12 wins vs. 10.28).  Everyone else (including the Rams) were within about 1.5 games.

* There's some evidence of tanking to get the #1 pick as well, even with the week #17 scores thrown out. 
  I'm looking at you Tampa (2 wins vs. expected 4.38) and Tennessee (2 wins vs. expected 4.17).

Soooo (and reminder, this is for entertainment purposes only), your (early) best bets this year
would appear to be (a lot of unders) --

-----------------------------------------------------
Take Carolina     under 8.5 wins (-2.33 differential)
Take the Jets     under 6.5 wins (-2.25 differential)
Take Chicago      under 7.0 wins (-1.95 differential)
Take Jacksonville under 5.5 wins (-1.88 differential)
Take SanFran      under 8.5 wins (-1.65 differential)
Take New Orleans  under 9.0 wins (-1.63 differential)
Take Baltimore    over  9.0 wins (+1.63 differential)
-----------------------------------------------------

We'll see what happens year-end.

And finally as far as the Rams go...they have the distinction of being the most fairly priced team on the board.
The Pythagorean model has them finishing third their division, and ahead of the 49ers.  The Rams are projected to
win 7.53 games by this model and are priced at 7.5o-110.  So the least value on the board from a gambling standpoint,
assuming no improvement or decline from last year.  Which like I said in the paragraph #1 is a very big assumption
indeed...


[Elvis]

This is why we pay kayfabe the big bucks...

[kayfabe]

Code: Select allWhat?  I don't recall any big bucks.  Or any bucks for that matter...

BTW here's what happened last year (probably should've mentioned that in the previous post).
Using a filter of looking only at teams that were above or below 1.5 expected wins, there were
eleven possible wagers...and the record ended up being 8 wins, 3 losses.  I'm just sayin'...

2013 Team          PF     PA    PyWP  AW    CurrOdds  PyWns   Diff
NewEngland        410    318   .6467  12   10.5o-135  10.35  -0.15
NYJets            270    380   .3072   8    7.0o-125   4.91  -2.09
Miami             310    315   .4905   8    8.0u-130   7.85  -0.15
Buffalo           319    354   .4384   6    6.5o-130   7.01  +0.51

Cincinnati        396    288   .6809  11    9.0o-135  10.89  +1.89
Pittsburgh        359    363   .4934   8    8.5o-120   7.89  -0.61
Baltimore         303    318   .4712   8    8.5o-120   7.54  -0.96
Cleveland         301    386   .3562   4    6.5o-150   5.70  -0.80

Indianapolis      361    326   .5604  11    9.5u-150   8.97  -0.53
Tennessee         346    371   .4586   7    7.0o-130   7.34  +0.34
Jacksonville      237    419   .2049   4    4.5o-150   3.28  +1.22
Houston           266    412   .2608   2    7.5o-145   4.18  -3.32

Denver            572    385   .7196  13   11.0o-140  11.51  +0.51
KansasCity        406    278   .7112  11    8.0o-120  11.38  +3.38
SanDiego          369    324   .5768   9    8.0o-120   9.23  +1.23
Oakland           308    419   .3247   4    5.0u-150   5.19  +0.19

Philadelphia      418    360   .5880  10    9.0u-135   9.41  +0.41
Dallas            417    408   .5130   8    8.0o-110   8.21  +0.21
NYGiants          274    377   .3188   7    7.5o-135   5.10  -2.40
Washington        328    458   .3111   3    7.5u-145   4.98  -2.52

GreenBay          384    400   .4757   8   10.0o-145   7.61  -2.39
Chicago           417    445   .4615   8    8.0o-140   7.38  -0.62
Detroit           382    362   .5320   7    8.0o-150   8.51  +0.51
Minnesota         377    467   .3753   5    6.0u-125   6.00  +0.00

Carolina          345    221   .7427  12    8.0o-130  11.88  +3.88
NewOrleans        372    287   .6496  11    9.5o-150  10.39  +0.89
Atlanta           333    422   .3627   4    8.0o-130   5.80  -2.20
TampaBay          271    347   .3570   4    7.0o-120   5.71  -1.29

Seattle           390    222   .7927  13   11.0o-120  12.68  +1.68
SanFrancisco      383    252   .7303  12   10.5o-120  11.69  +1.19
Arizona           359    301   .6033  10    7.5o-120   9.65  +2.15
StLouis           339    337   .5035   7    7.5o-110   8.06  +0.56


==================    ==================   =======================
2014 PRESEASON O/U    DIFFERENTIAL         ACTUAL 2014 WNS  RESULT
==================    ==================   =======================
NYJets  under  7.0    differential -2.09   (2014 wins:  4)  WIN
Cincy   over   9.0    differential +1.89   (2014 wins: 10)  WIN
Houstn  under  7.5    differential -3.32   (2014 wins:  9)  LOSS
KanCity over   8.0    differential +3.38   (2014 wins:  9)  WIN
Giants  under  7.5    differential -2.40   (2014 wins:  6)  WIN
Washngn under  7.5    differential -2.52   (2014 wins:  4)  WIN
GrnBay  under 10.0    differential -2.39   (2014 wins: 12)  LOSS
Seattle over  11.0    differential +1.68   (2014 wins: 12)  WIN
Arizona over   7.5    differential +2.15   (2014 wins: 11)  WIN
Carlina over   8.0    differential +3.88   (2014 wins:  7)  LOSS
Atlanta under  8.0    differential -2.20   (2014 wins:  6)  WIN
                                              =================
                                                     8-3 RECORD