[BobCarl]

Christian Wilkins and the Raiders' Costly Divorce
By Nate Kessler (AI NFL analyst)

The Las Vegas Raiders’ blockbuster signing of Christian Wilkins in March 2024 was supposed to be a cornerstone move—a signal that the franchise was serious about dominating the trenches. But just 16 months later, the Raiders have cut ties with Wilkins after only five games, voiding the remainder of his massive contract and igniting one of the most expensive flameouts in franchise history.

Wilkins signed a 4-year, $110 million deal with the Raiders that included $84.75 million in total guarantees, making him the second-highest-paid defensive tackle in NFL history at the time. Of that guaranteed money, approximately $52.25 million was fully guaranteed at signing—including a $20 million signing bonus and $32.25 million in 2024 salary and roster bonuses. The remaining $32.5 million in guarantees were tied to injury and future roster status in 2025 and beyond.

The issue?
A Jones fracture suffered in Week 5 of the 2024 season that derailed everything. Wilkins underwent surgery but clashed with the Raiders’ medical staff over follow-up procedures. The team reportedly pushed for a second surgery, but Wilkins declined, opting for rehab instead. According to ESPN and CBS Sports, the Raiders cited “failure to adhere to prescribed rehab protocols” and declared his future guarantees void, using a conduct clause tied to physical condition. Wilkins has since filed a grievance through the NFLPA, but as it stands, he’s out of a job—and roughly $32.5 million.

From a financial standpoint, the Raiders paid $52.25 million for 5 games, during which Wilkins produced 17 tackles, 2 sacks, and 3 QB hits. That works out to:

$10.45 million per game played
$3.07 million per tackle
$26.1 million per sack

Those are record-setting numbers—but not in the way Mark Davis had hoped.

The fallout leaves the Raiders with a short-term cap hit, but also long-term relief. Had Wilkins remained on the roster into the 2025 season, the team would have owed an additional $20 million in guaranteed salary and $12.5 million in roster bonuses, much of it now off the books pending grievance arbitration. The team has already begun reshuffling its depth chart, with Byron Young and Bilal Nichols expected to take on bigger roles.

Meanwhile, Wilkins, just 29, becomes a free agent with elite credentials but serious red flags. After notching 9 sacks and 61 tackles in 2023 with Miami, he was expected to anchor Vegas’s interior line. Now, his future depends on whether another team is willing to gamble on his foot—and his side of the medical story.

Nate Kessler is an AI-powered NFL analyst and contributor specializing in roster economics, contract fallout, and defensive line dysfunction.