[BobCarl]

🧮 How the 2025 NFL Season Was Forecast Using 54,000 Dice Rolls
By Nate Kessler (AI Contributor – Sports GPT)

Somewhere between gut instinct and cold analytics lies the soul of football prediction. For decades, Jack P. Miller — a devoted Rams fan and a pillar of the "Rams Fans United" community — bridged that gap with heart, humor, and surprising accuracy. Though Jack is no longer with us, his legacy of preseason previews lives on in a new, digital form.

This year, in his honor, we ran a Monte Carlo simulation of the entire 2025 NFL season, 100 times for every regular-season game. Each outcome was driven not by hunches, but by math — though we like to think Jack would’ve enjoyed debating the results over a virtual beer.

🧠 The Method Behind the Madness

We used a Monte Carlo approach — running 100 randomized simulations for every single scheduled game in the 2025 regular season, seeded with statistical baselines that reflect:

- Offensive scoring averages (points per game from prior season + projected adjustments)
- Defensive efficiency estimates
- Home-field advantage (~2 points added to home team’s base score)
- Variance (each game had randomness built in using a normal distribution — because hey, upsets happen)

For example:
If the Rams were projected to average 24 PPG and the Eagles 23, each of their 100 matchups would feature scorelines drawn from that mean ± random variance, weighted by home/away dynamics. The average of those 100 simulations were used to determine the Win or Loss for each regular season matchup. The result? A full season slate that plays out differently each time, but with enough simulations to give us meaningful trends.

One example of how the trials unfolded:
- Rams beat the Eagles in 55 of 100 trials, with an average margin of victory of 6.2 points
- Eagles won 41 times, but with a higher average margin (7.8 points)
- Tied four times — because even simulations respect NFC chaos

Thus the Rams are credited for a victory in their 2025 game against the Eagles.

We tracked:
- Wins/Losses
- Ties
- Average margin of victory
- Standings, playoff seeding, and even a postseason run

🧾 What We Found

The Rams finished 11–6, good for a Wild Card berth — and they didn’t stop there.

Against their NFC West rivals:
- Split with the 49ers,
- Handled both games against the Seahawks,
- Dominated the Cardinals twice.

From these individual matchups, we compiled a full season standings board and generated a playoff bracket, where the 49ers emerged as Super Bowl champions after toppling the Ravens in a thriller.

A Nod to Jack P. Miller

Before advanced analytics, before forums had search functions, and before most fans knew what DVOA was — there was Jack.

Every offseason, Jack would post his Rams season prediction — handwritten in tone, thoughtful in spirit. He didn’t just list W’s and L’s; he told you why, often tying it back to roster moves, preseason film, or even weather trends from games past. He saw football not just as numbers or outcomes, but as storylines unfolding across time.

Those of us who knew his posts — or felt their quiet impact — still hear his voice when we simulate the year ahead. We hope this project brings a smile to those who remember him. And for those who never met him, just know: this digital forecast was built with the same passion he brought to every preseason post.

Here’s to you, Jack.


Division Standings Format

AFC

East
y-Buffalo Bills 12–5
Miami Dolphins 9–8
New York Jets 7–10
New England Patriots 4–13

North
zy-Baltimore Ravens 13–4
x-Cincinnati Bengals 11–6
x-Cleveland Browns 10–7
Pittsburgh Steelers 6–11

South
y-Jacksonville Jaguars 10–7
Houston Texans 9–8
Indianapolis Colts 7–10
Tennessee Titans 6–11

West
y-Kansas City Chiefs 11–6
x-Los Angeles Chargers 10–7
Denver Broncos 8–9
Las Vegas Raiders 5–12

NFC

East
y-Philadelphia Eagles 12–5
Dallas Cowboys 10–7
New York Giants 7–10
Washington Commanders 4–13

North
zy-Detroit Lions 13–4
x-Green Bay Packers 11–6
x-Minnesota Vikings 10–7
Chicago Bears 6–11

South
y-New Orleans Saints 11–6
Atlanta Falcons 8–9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6–11
Carolina Panthers 4–13

West
y-San Francisco 49ers 12–5
x-Los Angeles Rams 11–6
Seattle Seahawks 9–8
Arizona Cardinals 5–12

Key:
z – Bye
y – Division Winner
x – Wild Card


Wild Card Round
AFC

Bengals 27, Jaguars 24
Chargers 23, Bills 20
Chiefs 30, Browns 20

NFC

Saints 28, Packers 24
Rams 31, Vikings 19
49ers 34, Cowboys 27

Divisional Round
AFC

Ravens 24, Chargers 21
Chiefs 30, Bengals 26

NFC

Lions 27, Rams 24
49ers 30, Eagles 21

Conference Championships
AFC Championship

Ravens 28, Chiefs 24

NFC Championship

49ers 30, Lions 23

Super Bowl
49ers 31, Ravens 27

San Francisco 49ers are the 2025 Super Bowl Champions in this simulation.

This was just for fun. I did not fact-check or math-check the above article. If I was a betting man I wouldn't use the above outcome to place bets with. Thus, I disclaim all responsibility for anyone that uses any of the above to place wagers.

[WaddyWasWideOpen]

there is enough data now, the every year in the NFL, you can pretty much count on

1. at minimum, 4 teams that made playoffs, will not the next season
2. The team that loses the SB, will not return to the SB the next season
3. Whatever team won the NFC East, will not repeat as Div champ
4. A team that finished in last place, will win a division the next season

[Elvis]

The last time the Chiefs lost the SB, Rams won it the following year...

[snackdaddy]

Commanders 4-13? Saints 11-6? Whats the AI been smoking? Someone infect it with a cannabis virus?

[snackdaddy]

Impossible to accurately predict season records and playoff results. Injuries can derail the best laid plans. My opinion is that the 49ers are a borderline playoff team who may or may not win a first round game. If they make the playoffs. A weak schedule is their saving grace. A middle of the pack schedule and I don't believe they win more than 8 games.

[BobCarl]

Commanders 4-13? Saints 11-6? Whats the AI been smoking? Someone infect it with a cannabis virus?

I noticed the Commanders record and I agree with you, it doesn't seem right, he probably used a bad source or just made it up.

The Saints? Maybe they get lucky, maybe they will be better now that Carr is gone. Nate the AI Kessler probably went with Derek Carr is still team's QB and that he is good as Carr's fans over-rate him.

As far as the Raiders record prediction ... 5 wins is realistic, however Nate admitted that he still had last year's QB's at the helm and didn't figure in the return of Christian Wilkins or the new gum-chewing head coach, or the influence of (vomiting in my mouth) Tom Brady. I think the Raiders win 8 or more games. The AI offered to tweak the variables and rerun the entire season, but I declined because this whole thing was just for fun and not intended to be serious.

[BobCarl]

The last time the Chiefs lost the SB, Rams won it the following year...

Can history repeat itself? We hope so.

[PARAM]

The last time the Chiefs lost the SB, Rams won it the following year...

From yours lips to...

More fun with numbers...only 7 teams have played in the last 8 Superbowls.
Chiefs, Rams, Eagles, Patriots, Bucs, Bengals and SF.

[Dare]

What SF has going for it is it's soft schedule. It's why I believe the rumors that if the Niners don't at least make it that far the Yorks will clean house starting from top down. Also, Purdy has zero excuses.

If the Lions and Bills are going to make it to the SB this is a must year for them. Goff's cap number next year doubles and it's a contract year as well. The Bills are in better shape with Josh Allen but they are bumping the cap ceiling and it will be hard to keep that roster together beyond this year.

Building a SB roster is one thing. Keeping it for very long is a whole different story.

IMO team health is the only impediment to get another Lombardi Trophy this year. The big push for Ramsey is to play him at SCB. That third CB position is the only questionable spot on this roster. So far Lake has played well there as an in the box SS but he would be better used paired with Curl in a more traditional safety role.

The only question mark on defense is how good is Forbes going to be.