[Elvis]

And just to be clear, Rams need 4 of 15 games to go their way to win SOV. 6 of those 15 are played this week. So if they get 3 points this week, they would only need to get 1 more point in week 18 to wrap up SOV.

SOV only matters if the Rams beat AZ.

If the Rams lose to AZ, they win the division by beating Seattle in week 18. Nothing can happen this week that can change that. Even if not a single thing goes right for the Rams this week, they still control their own destiny, still win the division by beating Seattle...

[Elvis]

For example, if you use 0.6 instead of 0.5, meaning you think the average success rate of the 6 games is 60-40, which I think is a best case value, then the probability jumps to 0.54.

Takeaway here is that at best it's 50-50 that we clinch in week 17.

Somewhere you can look up percentages based on spread but:

Buff -10, Wash -4, Cinci -3, MN -1, SF +3.5, Cle +6.5

[ramsman34]

Rams need to smoke the Cards then sit back and see what else happens. I think the staff is already preparing for Seattle game as “must win”. Provided the Rams take care of business, they host either the Packers or Commanders in the WC - both of whom are tough match ups.

[PARAM]

Rams need to smoke the Cards then sit back and see what else happens. I think the staff is already preparing for Seattle game as “must win”. Provided the Rams take care of business, they host either the Packers or Commanders in the WC - both of whom are tough match ups.

Who wouldn't love a smoke job? Like the 2021 Wild Card Game!!! But I'll take a freaking win anyway they can get it. I'm not worried about style points (not suggesting you are either). Just get the fooking win.

[ramsman34]

Ya same. But, I’m thinking psychologically. The Rams have won a number of ways. Blowing a team out is not one of those ways…yet.

[max]

Somewhere you can look up percentages based on spread but:

Buff -10, Wash -4, Cinci -3, MN -1, SF +3.5, Cle +6.5

Yeah, someone did it on another board and came up with an average win probability of 0.513

That gives us a 37% chance of getting at least 4 of 6 wins.

Thats kind of what I think we got here. We probably won't clinch in week 17, but it's certainly possible.

[Elvis]

[max]

If Cincy wins then we only need 3 of 5 to clinch this week. That’s 52%.

[Zen_Ronin]

Only 3 more points needed tomorrow. Thank you Bengals!

[Elvis]

Seattle won and Rams won (both barely) so SOV still matters.

Cinci won so Rams now only need 2.5 more points to clinch the division.

Jets at Bills in the morning, we want Bills.

Dolphins at the Browns and Packers at the Vikings in the afternoon. We want Browns and Vikings.

SNF: Falcons at Commanders. We want Commanders.

MNF: Detroit at SF, can't say we want it but SF win gives us a point.