by Elvis 21 hours 23 minutes ago Total posts: 40136 Joined: Mar 28 2015 Los Angeles Administrator Re: Playoff Scenarios: AZ Eliminated POST #111 TOPIC AUTHOR And just to be clear, Rams need 4 of 15 games to go their way to win SOV. 6 of those 15 are played this week. So if they get 3 points this week, they would only need to get 1 more point in week 18 to wrap up SOV.SOV only matters if the Rams beat AZ.If the Rams lose to AZ, they win the division by beating Seattle in week 18. Nothing can happen this week that can change that. Even if not a single thing goes right for the Rams this week, they still control their own destiny, still win the division by beating Seattle... RFU Season Ticket Holder by Elvis 21 hours 8 minutes ago Total posts: 40136 Joined: Mar 28 2015 Los Angeles Administrator Playoff Scenarios: AZ Eliminated POST #112 TOPIC AUTHOR max wrote:For example, if you use 0.6 instead of 0.5, meaning you think the average success rate of the 6 games is 60-40, which I think is a best case value, then the probability jumps to 0.54.Takeaway here is that at best it's 50-50 that we clinch in week 17.Somewhere you can look up percentages based on spread but:Buff -10, Wash -4, Cinci -3, MN -1, SF +3.5, Cle +6.5 RFU Season Ticket Holder by ramsman34 19 hours 42 minutes ago Total posts: 9470 Joined: Apr 16 2015 Back in LA baby! Moderator Re: Playoff Scenarios: AZ Eliminated POST #113 Rams need to smoke the Cards then sit back and see what else happens. I think the staff is already preparing for Seattle game as “must win”. Provided the Rams take care of business, they host either the Packers or Commanders in the WC - both of whom are tough match ups. by PARAM 18 hours 58 minutes ago Total posts: 12704 Joined: Jul 15 2015 Just far enough North of Philadelphia Hall of Fame Playoff Scenarios: AZ Eliminated POST #114 RedAlice liked this post ramsman34 wrote:Rams need to smoke the Cards then sit back and see what else happens. I think the staff is already preparing for Seattle game as “must win”. Provided the Rams take care of business, they host either the Packers or Commanders in the WC - both of whom are tough match ups.Who wouldn't love a smoke job? Like the 2021 Wild Card Game!!! But I'll take a freaking win anyway they can get it. I'm not worried about style points (not suggesting you are either). Just get the fooking win. Been following the horns since the Coliseum had a Roman playing there. McVay: 77-49, 2 Superbowls, 1 Lombardi............Doubt at your own peril 1 by ramsman34 18 hours 35 minutes ago Total posts: 9470 Joined: Apr 16 2015 Back in LA baby! Moderator Re: Playoff Scenarios: AZ Eliminated POST #115 Ya same. But, I’m thinking psychologically. The Rams have won a number of ways. Blowing a team out is not one of those ways…yet. by max 15 hours 56 minutes ago Total posts: 5639 Joined: Jun 01 2015 Sarasota, FL Hall of Fame Playoff Scenarios: AZ Eliminated POST #116 Elvis liked this post Elvis wrote:Somewhere you can look up percentages based on spread but:Buff -10, Wash -4, Cinci -3, MN -1, SF +3.5, Cle +6.5Yeah, someone did it on another board and came up with an average win probability of 0.513That gives us a 37% chance of getting at least 4 of 6 wins.Thats kind of what I think we got here. We probably won't clinch in week 17, but it's certainly possible. ~ max ~“The consciousness of good intentions disdains ambiguity.” - Alexander Hamilton, The Federalist Papers 1 Reply 12 / 12 1 12 Display: All posts1 day7 days2 weeks1 month3 months6 months1 year Sort by: AuthorPost timeSubject Sort by: AscendingDescending Jump to: Forum Rams/NFL Other Sports Rams Fans United Q&A's Board Business 116 posts Dec 28 2024
by Elvis 21 hours 8 minutes ago Total posts: 40136 Joined: Mar 28 2015 Los Angeles Administrator Playoff Scenarios: AZ Eliminated POST #112 TOPIC AUTHOR max wrote:For example, if you use 0.6 instead of 0.5, meaning you think the average success rate of the 6 games is 60-40, which I think is a best case value, then the probability jumps to 0.54.Takeaway here is that at best it's 50-50 that we clinch in week 17.Somewhere you can look up percentages based on spread but:Buff -10, Wash -4, Cinci -3, MN -1, SF +3.5, Cle +6.5 RFU Season Ticket Holder by ramsman34 19 hours 42 minutes ago Total posts: 9470 Joined: Apr 16 2015 Back in LA baby! Moderator Re: Playoff Scenarios: AZ Eliminated POST #113 Rams need to smoke the Cards then sit back and see what else happens. I think the staff is already preparing for Seattle game as “must win”. Provided the Rams take care of business, they host either the Packers or Commanders in the WC - both of whom are tough match ups. by PARAM 18 hours 58 minutes ago Total posts: 12704 Joined: Jul 15 2015 Just far enough North of Philadelphia Hall of Fame Playoff Scenarios: AZ Eliminated POST #114 RedAlice liked this post ramsman34 wrote:Rams need to smoke the Cards then sit back and see what else happens. I think the staff is already preparing for Seattle game as “must win”. Provided the Rams take care of business, they host either the Packers or Commanders in the WC - both of whom are tough match ups.Who wouldn't love a smoke job? Like the 2021 Wild Card Game!!! But I'll take a freaking win anyway they can get it. I'm not worried about style points (not suggesting you are either). Just get the fooking win. Been following the horns since the Coliseum had a Roman playing there. McVay: 77-49, 2 Superbowls, 1 Lombardi............Doubt at your own peril 1 by ramsman34 18 hours 35 minutes ago Total posts: 9470 Joined: Apr 16 2015 Back in LA baby! Moderator Re: Playoff Scenarios: AZ Eliminated POST #115 Ya same. But, I’m thinking psychologically. The Rams have won a number of ways. Blowing a team out is not one of those ways…yet. by max 15 hours 56 minutes ago Total posts: 5639 Joined: Jun 01 2015 Sarasota, FL Hall of Fame Playoff Scenarios: AZ Eliminated POST #116 Elvis liked this post Elvis wrote:Somewhere you can look up percentages based on spread but:Buff -10, Wash -4, Cinci -3, MN -1, SF +3.5, Cle +6.5Yeah, someone did it on another board and came up with an average win probability of 0.513That gives us a 37% chance of getting at least 4 of 6 wins.Thats kind of what I think we got here. We probably won't clinch in week 17, but it's certainly possible. ~ max ~“The consciousness of good intentions disdains ambiguity.” - Alexander Hamilton, The Federalist Papers 1 Reply 12 / 12 1 12 Display: All posts1 day7 days2 weeks1 month3 months6 months1 year Sort by: AuthorPost timeSubject Sort by: AscendingDescending Jump to: Forum Rams/NFL Other Sports Rams Fans United Q&A's Board Business 116 posts Dec 28 2024
by ramsman34 19 hours 42 minutes ago Total posts: 9470 Joined: Apr 16 2015 Back in LA baby! Moderator Re: Playoff Scenarios: AZ Eliminated POST #113 Rams need to smoke the Cards then sit back and see what else happens. I think the staff is already preparing for Seattle game as “must win”. Provided the Rams take care of business, they host either the Packers or Commanders in the WC - both of whom are tough match ups. by PARAM 18 hours 58 minutes ago Total posts: 12704 Joined: Jul 15 2015 Just far enough North of Philadelphia Hall of Fame Playoff Scenarios: AZ Eliminated POST #114 RedAlice liked this post ramsman34 wrote:Rams need to smoke the Cards then sit back and see what else happens. I think the staff is already preparing for Seattle game as “must win”. Provided the Rams take care of business, they host either the Packers or Commanders in the WC - both of whom are tough match ups.Who wouldn't love a smoke job? Like the 2021 Wild Card Game!!! But I'll take a freaking win anyway they can get it. I'm not worried about style points (not suggesting you are either). Just get the fooking win. Been following the horns since the Coliseum had a Roman playing there. McVay: 77-49, 2 Superbowls, 1 Lombardi............Doubt at your own peril 1 by ramsman34 18 hours 35 minutes ago Total posts: 9470 Joined: Apr 16 2015 Back in LA baby! Moderator Re: Playoff Scenarios: AZ Eliminated POST #115 Ya same. But, I’m thinking psychologically. The Rams have won a number of ways. Blowing a team out is not one of those ways…yet. by max 15 hours 56 minutes ago Total posts: 5639 Joined: Jun 01 2015 Sarasota, FL Hall of Fame Playoff Scenarios: AZ Eliminated POST #116 Elvis liked this post Elvis wrote:Somewhere you can look up percentages based on spread but:Buff -10, Wash -4, Cinci -3, MN -1, SF +3.5, Cle +6.5Yeah, someone did it on another board and came up with an average win probability of 0.513That gives us a 37% chance of getting at least 4 of 6 wins.Thats kind of what I think we got here. We probably won't clinch in week 17, but it's certainly possible. ~ max ~“The consciousness of good intentions disdains ambiguity.” - Alexander Hamilton, The Federalist Papers 1 Reply 12 / 12 1 12 Display: All posts1 day7 days2 weeks1 month3 months6 months1 year Sort by: AuthorPost timeSubject Sort by: AscendingDescending Jump to: Forum Rams/NFL Other Sports Rams Fans United Q&A's Board Business 116 posts Dec 28 2024
by PARAM 18 hours 58 minutes ago Total posts: 12704 Joined: Jul 15 2015 Just far enough North of Philadelphia Hall of Fame Playoff Scenarios: AZ Eliminated POST #114 RedAlice liked this post ramsman34 wrote:Rams need to smoke the Cards then sit back and see what else happens. I think the staff is already preparing for Seattle game as “must win”. Provided the Rams take care of business, they host either the Packers or Commanders in the WC - both of whom are tough match ups.Who wouldn't love a smoke job? Like the 2021 Wild Card Game!!! But I'll take a freaking win anyway they can get it. I'm not worried about style points (not suggesting you are either). Just get the fooking win. Been following the horns since the Coliseum had a Roman playing there. McVay: 77-49, 2 Superbowls, 1 Lombardi............Doubt at your own peril 1 by ramsman34 18 hours 35 minutes ago Total posts: 9470 Joined: Apr 16 2015 Back in LA baby! Moderator Re: Playoff Scenarios: AZ Eliminated POST #115 Ya same. But, I’m thinking psychologically. The Rams have won a number of ways. Blowing a team out is not one of those ways…yet. by max 15 hours 56 minutes ago Total posts: 5639 Joined: Jun 01 2015 Sarasota, FL Hall of Fame Playoff Scenarios: AZ Eliminated POST #116 Elvis liked this post Elvis wrote:Somewhere you can look up percentages based on spread but:Buff -10, Wash -4, Cinci -3, MN -1, SF +3.5, Cle +6.5Yeah, someone did it on another board and came up with an average win probability of 0.513That gives us a 37% chance of getting at least 4 of 6 wins.Thats kind of what I think we got here. We probably won't clinch in week 17, but it's certainly possible. ~ max ~“The consciousness of good intentions disdains ambiguity.” - Alexander Hamilton, The Federalist Papers 1 Reply 12 / 12 1 12 Display: All posts1 day7 days2 weeks1 month3 months6 months1 year Sort by: AuthorPost timeSubject Sort by: AscendingDescending Jump to: Forum Rams/NFL Other Sports Rams Fans United Q&A's Board Business 116 posts Dec 28 2024
by ramsman34 18 hours 35 minutes ago Total posts: 9470 Joined: Apr 16 2015 Back in LA baby! Moderator Re: Playoff Scenarios: AZ Eliminated POST #115 Ya same. But, I’m thinking psychologically. The Rams have won a number of ways. Blowing a team out is not one of those ways…yet. by max 15 hours 56 minutes ago Total posts: 5639 Joined: Jun 01 2015 Sarasota, FL Hall of Fame Playoff Scenarios: AZ Eliminated POST #116 Elvis liked this post Elvis wrote:Somewhere you can look up percentages based on spread but:Buff -10, Wash -4, Cinci -3, MN -1, SF +3.5, Cle +6.5Yeah, someone did it on another board and came up with an average win probability of 0.513That gives us a 37% chance of getting at least 4 of 6 wins.Thats kind of what I think we got here. We probably won't clinch in week 17, but it's certainly possible. ~ max ~“The consciousness of good intentions disdains ambiguity.” - Alexander Hamilton, The Federalist Papers 1 Reply 12 / 12 1 12 Display: All posts1 day7 days2 weeks1 month3 months6 months1 year Sort by: AuthorPost timeSubject Sort by: AscendingDescending Jump to: Forum Rams/NFL Other Sports Rams Fans United Q&A's Board Business 116 posts Dec 28 2024
by max 15 hours 56 minutes ago Total posts: 5639 Joined: Jun 01 2015 Sarasota, FL Hall of Fame Playoff Scenarios: AZ Eliminated POST #116 Elvis liked this post Elvis wrote:Somewhere you can look up percentages based on spread but:Buff -10, Wash -4, Cinci -3, MN -1, SF +3.5, Cle +6.5Yeah, someone did it on another board and came up with an average win probability of 0.513That gives us a 37% chance of getting at least 4 of 6 wins.Thats kind of what I think we got here. We probably won't clinch in week 17, but it's certainly possible. ~ max ~“The consciousness of good intentions disdains ambiguity.” - Alexander Hamilton, The Federalist Papers 1 Reply 12 / 12 1 12 Display: All posts1 day7 days2 weeks1 month3 months6 months1 year Sort by: AuthorPost timeSubject Sort by: AscendingDescending Jump to: Forum Rams/NFL Other Sports Rams Fans United Q&A's Board Business