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 by Elvis
21 hours 23 minutes ago
 Total posts:   40136  
 Joined:  Mar 28 2015
United States of America   Los Angeles
Administrator

And just to be clear, Rams need 4 of 15 games to go their way to win SOV. 6 of those 15 are played this week. So if they get 3 points this week, they would only need to get 1 more point in week 18 to wrap up SOV.

SOV only matters if the Rams beat AZ.

If the Rams lose to AZ, they win the division by beating Seattle in week 18. Nothing can happen this week that can change that. Even if not a single thing goes right for the Rams this week, they still control their own destiny, still win the division by beating Seattle...

 by Elvis
21 hours 8 minutes ago
 Total posts:   40136  
 Joined:  Mar 28 2015
United States of America   Los Angeles
Administrator

max wrote:For example, if you use 0.6 instead of 0.5, meaning you think the average success rate of the 6 games is 60-40, which I think is a best case value, then the probability jumps to 0.54.

Takeaway here is that at best it's 50-50 that we clinch in week 17.


Somewhere you can look up percentages based on spread but:

Buff -10, Wash -4, Cinci -3, MN -1, SF +3.5, Cle +6.5

 by ramsman34
19 hours 42 minutes ago
 Total posts:   9470  
 Joined:  Apr 16 2015
United States of America   Back in LA baby!
Moderator

Rams need to smoke the Cards then sit back and see what else happens. I think the staff is already preparing for Seattle game as “must win”. Provided the Rams take care of business, they host either the Packers or Commanders in the WC - both of whom are tough match ups.

 by PARAM
18 hours 58 minutes ago
 Total posts:   12704  
 Joined:  Jul 15 2015
Barbados   Just far enough North of Philadelphia
Hall of Fame

ramsman34 wrote:Rams need to smoke the Cards then sit back and see what else happens. I think the staff is already preparing for Seattle game as “must win”. Provided the Rams take care of business, they host either the Packers or Commanders in the WC - both of whom are tough match ups.


Who wouldn't love a smoke job? Like the 2021 Wild Card Game!!! But I'll take a freaking win anyway they can get it. I'm not worried about style points (not suggesting you are either). Just get the fooking win.

 by ramsman34
18 hours 35 minutes ago
 Total posts:   9470  
 Joined:  Apr 16 2015
United States of America   Back in LA baby!
Moderator

Ya same. But, I’m thinking psychologically. The Rams have won a number of ways. Blowing a team out is not one of those ways…yet.

 by max
15 hours 56 minutes ago
 Total posts:   5639  
 Joined:  Jun 01 2015
United States of America   Sarasota, FL
Hall of Fame

Elvis wrote:Somewhere you can look up percentages based on spread but:

Buff -10, Wash -4, Cinci -3, MN -1, SF +3.5, Cle +6.5


Yeah, someone did it on another board and came up with an average win probability of 0.513

That gives us a 37% chance of getting at least 4 of 6 wins.

Thats kind of what I think we got here. We probably won't clinch in week 17, but it's certainly possible.

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116 posts Dec 28 2024