[Elvis]

Good point. I didn't realize they were gonna have Saturday games.

If Denver, Miami, and GB win this week, then we don't clinch.

And then I bet they move us to Saturday.

And if week 18's game is for the division regardless of SOV, could end up on Sunday Night Football.

Personally i'm rooting for a nice meaningless Sunday afternoon game...

[max]

And if week 18's game is for the division regardless of SOV, could end up on Sunday Night Football.

Personally i'm rooting for a nice meaningless Sunday afternoon game...

If both SEA and Rams lose week 17, the Rams will lose the tiebreaker to SEA if AZ beats SF in week 18.

I'm not sure how else SoV gets eliminated as the primary tiebreaker option. And if thats the case I'm not rooting for week 18 being for the division on SNF.

[Elvis]

If both SEA and Rams lose week 17, the Rams will lose the tiebreaker to SEA if AZ beats SF in week 18.

I'm not sure how else SoV gets eliminated as the primary tiebreaker option. And if thats the case I'm not rooting for week 18 being for the division on SNF.

If they both lose this week, week 18 would be for the division.

Rams win, the have the better record.

Seattle wins, they win based on division record.

If Seattle loses tonight, SOV no longer matters in any scenario. Both teams have to win this week for SOV to matter.

[actionjack]

If they both lose this week, week 18 would be for the division.

Rams win, the have the better record.

Seattle wins, they win based on division record.

If Seattle loses tonight, SOV no longer matters in any scenario. Both teams have to win this week for SOV to matter.

This!!!

[max]

If they both lose this week, week 18 would be for the division.

Rams win, the have the better record.

Seattle wins, they win based on division record.

If Seattle loses tonight, SOV no longer matters in any scenario. Both teams have to win this week for SOV to matter.

True. But I’m not gonna root for them both to lose just to have week 18 be for the division. That’s what I meant. I hate the idea of getting swept by AZ.

So how else can we play for the division in week 18 if we beat AZ? I don’t see one. Which means I don’t want to be on SNF.

[actionjack]

Just have to beat the cardinals

[Elvis]

That graphic is slightly off, Rams only need 4 points. Here's the updated and corrected version:

[max]

That graphic is slightly off, Rams only need 4 points. Here's the updated and corrected version:

Seems like SEA needs only 13 points not 14.

[max]

So here's some funky math just for fun...

We can use the binomial probability formula to calculate the probability that we get at least 4 wins out of 6 games. Let's start by assuming the average success rate of each of the 6 games going our way is 50-50 or 0.5. Then:

The binomial probability formula: P(k; n, p) = (n choose k) * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k)
where P(k; n, p) is the probability of getting exactly k successes in n trials, p is the success probability for each trial, and (n choose k) is the binomial coefficient.
Exactly 4 wins
To find the probability of getting exactly 4 wins in 6 games (i), we take n=6, k=4, and, p=0.5: P(4; 6, 0.5) = (6 choose 4) * 0.5^4 * 0.5^(6-4) = 15 * 0.5^6 = 15/64
At Least 4 wins
For at least 4 wins, we need to calculate the probabilities for getting 4, 5, and 6 wins and sum them up.
P(4 wins) = 15/64 (as calculated above)
P(5 wins) = (6 choose 5) * 0.5^5 * 0.5^(6-5) = 6 * 0.5^6 = 6/64
P(6 wins) = (6 choose 6) * 0.5^6 * 0.5^(6-6) = 1 * 0.5^6 = 1/64
Adding these probabilities gives us the probability of getting at least 4 wins: P(at least 4 wins) = P(4 wins) + P(5 wins) + P(6 wins) = (15+6+1)/64 = 22/64 = 11/32 =0.34

But if you think it’s more likely greater than 0.5 that the average of all 6 games goes our way then substitute a higher value for p in the equations above.

For example, if you use 0.6 instead of 0.5, meaning you think the average success rate of the 6 games is 60-40, which I think is a best case value, then the probability jumps to 0.54.

Takeaway here is that at best it's 50-50 that we clinch in week 17.