[PARAM]

Don't they get an extra 7 for their.2nd Arizona win and the Rams an extra 6 for the 2nd SF win? That would bring it to a difference of 3.

45 to 42

And that could change and make it a wash by years end if SF beats Arizona and both end up with 7 wins.

[max]

Nice work max. See my post(s) and others above.

New Orleans plays LV week 17, so unless they tie, that's another point for us.

Seattle can potentially pickup 5 points week 18 and they could also potentially win the next tiebreaker so i think we'd need to be ahead by 6, not 4, going into week 18 for it to be a lock...

Don't know how they pick up 5. But I see that they can pick up 4 because of Chicago. Where do they get the 5th one from?

I ran this thru the ESPN machine. Put us up by 5 after week 17, then did worst case scenario in week 18 and we still won the division.

What I missed was I didn't count Chicago winning in week 18 as being critical. Thats why we need a lead of 5 to clinch.

Here's more...

Looking at these 5 games as being critical for us:
Minn - GB
Buff - Jets
Wash - Atl
Cinn - Den
Clev - Miami

If 3 of the 5 first teams listed in these games wins next week, then we clinch, IMO.

[Elvis]

Don't know how they pick up 5. But I see that they can pick up 4 because of Chicago. Where do they get the 5th one from?

I ran this thru the ESPN machine. Put us up by 5 after week 17, then did worst case scenario in week 18 and we still won the division.

What I missed was I didn't count Chicago winning in week 18 as being critical. Thats why we need a lead of 5 to clinch.

In week 18 Seattle can get:

Miami, Chicago, AZ, Denver, Atlanta.

Do i have it wrong?

[max]

In week 18 Seattle can get:

Miami, Chicago, AZ, Denver, Atlanta.

Do i have it wrong?

I think you're right about AZ counting, just like SF does, since they both split with one of us and got swept by the other.

That does change the games that matter next week to 6 games. We have to add the Det SF game to the mix.

So we actually need 4 of these 6 games to go our way to clinch:
Minn - GB
Buff - Jets
Wash - Atl
Cinn - Den
Clev - Miami
SF - Det

[Elvis]

Don't they get an extra 7 for their.2nd Arizona win and the Rams an extra 6 for the 2nd SF win? That would bring it to a difference of 3.

45 to 42

And that could change and make it a wash by years end if SF beats Arizona and both end up with 7 wins.

AZ and SF are already factored into the 39-35 number.

With NO and LV playing each other, Rams effectively have a 5 game lead in SOV right now. If they can make that 6 by the end of this coming week, game over, Rams would win SOV regardless of what happens in week 18.

But if you look at the games, not the most likely scenario...

[max]

AZ and SF are already factored into the 39-35 number.

With NO and LV playing each other, Rams effectively have a 5 game lead in SOV right now. If they can make that 6 by the end of this coming week, game over, Rams would win SOV regardless of what happens in week 18.

But if you look at the games, not the most likely scenario...

Yeah, its not as easy as we hoped to clinch b4 week 18.

And here's the annoying thing about the SoV.

If we don't clinch, and have to beat SEA to ensure the division win, its gonna look bad if we lose to SEA and win the tiebreaker based on SoV.

There will be a lot of the Rams backed into the playoffs talk.

So, for me, if we don't clinch with SoV before week 18, I say just beat SEA and forget about SoV.

[Dare]

Just remember the Rams were 12-5 NFCW division champ in the 2021 season the #4 seed. That was the last time AZ was in the playoffs and the Rams kicked their butts in the wildcard round. IMO the talent gap between AZ and LA is even bigger.

My point is the SB Champ Rams weren't either the one or two seed in the playoffs. The playoff seeding worked for the Rams that year. IMO the number 3 seed is good spot for what I see as the most likely playoff teams/matchups.

The best spot would be #2 but that ain't gonna happen. But at #3 the Rams have a legit shot at a Super Bowl appearance. Another Lombardi will guarantee Stafford's HOF credentials, and McVay's as well.

[Elvis]

I think you're right about AZ counting, just like SF does, since they both split with one of us and got swept by the other.

That does change the games that matter next week to 6 games. We have to add the Det SF game to the mix.

So we actually need 4 of these 6 games to go our way to clinch:
Minn - GB
Buff - Jets
Wash - Atl
Cinn - Den
Clev - Miami
SF - Det

JB agrees:

[Elvis]

Current spreads on those games:

CIN -3, BUF -9.5, MIN -1, CLE +6.5, WAS -4, SF +3.5

If KC beats Pittsburgh tomorrow, could change Buffalo's approach on Sunday...

[max]

Just remember the Rams were 12-5 NFCW division champ in the 2021 season the #4 seed. That was the last time AZ was in the playoffs and the Rams kicked their butts in the wildcard round. IMO the talent gap between AZ and LA is even bigger.

My point is the SB Champ Rams weren't either the one or two seed in the playoffs. The playoff seeding worked for the Rams that year. IMO the number 3 seed is good spot for what I see as the most likely playoff teams/matchups.

The best spot would be #2 but that ain't gonna happen. But at #3 the Rams have a legit shot at a Super Bowl appearance. Another Lombardi will guarantee Stafford's HOF credentials, and McVay's as well.

Good points.

We really need to win our next 2 games to have a good chance of doing damage in the playoffs.

What I do find interesting is how people in both the media and message boards are saying the Rams clinch if the beat AZ, or that it would take a miracle for the Rams not to win division.

Here is one viable situation that gives SEA the division if they beat the Rams...

Week 17 goes like this...
Den over Cincy
Miami over Clev
GB over Minn
ATL over Wash

Then week 18 goes like this...
Atl over Panthers
Den over KC (Chiefs will be resting starters)
Chargers over LV
TB over Saints
Det over Minn

Guess what, if that happens SEA wins the West.