[Ramzee]

How can they use a first round pick on a position the year after spending a third on it? Gee almost sounds like Todd Gurley all over again. If You have a chance to upgrade at a clear position of need then you do it.

IMO it's called wasting draft picks and it's akin to having no foresight or "vision."

lol I always loved that winning formula of drafting a guy, drafting his replacement the next year, then trading the first guy you drafted for far less than what you spent to get him in the first place. Like people being more than happy to get a 5th round pick for Tre Mason.

[Hacksaw]

Ramzee is in the house. Welcome.

[OldSchool]

How can they use a first round pick on a position the year after spending a third on it? Gee almost sounds like Todd Gurley all over again. If You have a chance to upgrade at a clear position of need then you do it.

IMO it's called wasting draft picks and it's akin to having no foresight or "vision."

lol I always loved that winning formula of drafting a guy, drafting his replacement the next year, then trading the first guy you drafted for far less than what you spent to get him in the first place. Like people being more than happy to get a 5th round pick for Tre Mason.

A third rounder for a backup at QB or RB is a wasted pick? Interesting, how many draft picks actually pan out? Half? A third? I didn't realize we were shopping Mason but with his off field issues I doubt we would get a 5th for him with the leagues stance on off field issues.

[The Ripper]

How can they use a first round pick on a position the year after spending a third on it? Gee almost sounds like Todd Gurley all over again. If You have a chance to upgrade at a clear position of need then you do it.

IMO it's called wasting draft picks and it's akin to having no foresight or "vision."

lol I always loved that winning formula of drafting a guy, drafting his replacement the next year, then trading the first guy you drafted for far less than what you spent to get him in the first place. Like people being more than happy to get a 5th round pick for Tre Mason.

A third rounder for a backup at QB or RB is a wasted pick? Interesting, how many draft picks actually pan out? Half? A third? I didn't realize we were shopping Mason but with his off field issues I doubt we would get a 5th for him with the leagues stance on off field issues.

Just look at 1999's draft. 5 QB's in the first 12 picks and only 2 of them lasted more than 5 years.

[TSFH Fan]

Interesting, how many draft picks actually pan out? Half? A third?

I liked Ramsey's work about QB drafting http://www.ramsondemand.com/threads/str ... ata.43527/

Bottom Line
In the last 9 drafts, since 2006 draft on, 106 quarterbacks have been picked from the (5th pick of first round) through the end of 7th round.

The best of the 106? Teddy Bridgewater, Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton, Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson, Derrek Carr, Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco. Eight solid starting quarterbacks in 10 years! Only Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, and Andy Dalton were drafted after the first round. The others are either retired, washed up, on a downward spiral, or haven't done it yet.

I thought the time frame was a bit too short and maybe there are arguments on assessments of individual QBs, but I thought, overall, his work seemed solid.

[OldSchool]

Interesting, how many draft picks actually pan out? Half? A third?

I liked Ramsey's work about QB drafting http://www.ramsondemand.com/threads/str ... ata.43527/

Bottom Line
In the last 9 drafts, since 2006 draft on, 106 quarterbacks have been picked from the (5th pick of first round) through the end of 7th round.

The best of the 106? Teddy Bridgewater, Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton, Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson, Derrek Carr, Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco. Eight solid starting quarterbacks in 10 years! Only Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, and Andy Dalton were drafted after the first round. The others are either retired, washed up, on a downward spiral, or haven't done it yet.

I thought the time frame was a bit too short and maybe there are arguments on assessments of individual QBs, but I thought, overall, his work seemed solid.

Nice work and I'd wager it's not exclusive to QB. You would find similar results in every position for the first round.

[/zn/]

how many draft picks actually pan out? Half? A third?

I calculated that once by looking at a few good drafting teams, and found that a team is doing well if it gets 40% "hits" (hit = continuing starter and/or significant role player like a consistently used 3rd WR). 40% is good drafting; more than that is superlative; average is around 30% which means across several drafts you average a little more than 2 hits per draft.

It is significantly worse for qb than several other positions.

Looking at all rounds from 2002-2011 (ie. a decade, ending long enough ago to be able to make judgments), 132 qbs were taken in that period. For qb, I count starters as hits, not backups.

I count these hits: Rivers, Rodgers, Roethislberger, Eli, Palmer, Ryan, Cutler, Newton, Flacco, A.Smith, Schaub (even though he melted down in the end), Stafford, Dalton, Carr, and Bradford.

The borderline guys are Fitzgerald, Kaepernick, McCown, and Taylor.

The rest are already established as back-ups or busts.

So out of 132 that's 11.4% hits, 3% borderline cases, and 85.6% busts-n-backups.

Of the "hits" at qb, 12 were taken in the 1st round. That's out of 30 1st round qbs picked in that period. Though there are always years that buck the 1st round trend and this year may be one of them. This draft is reportedly deep at qb, but deep in the 2nd tier--guys who could go anywhere from the 2nd half of the 1st round to the 3rd round. Those are developmental types but there are reportedly more of those this draft than usual.

...

[Hacksaw_64]

Boggles the mind how you draft a QB in the 3rd round and after one year we're already looking to draft a new one.

Welcome aboard Ramzee!

Not that I was thrilled with the pick because frankly I wasn't. But I think comparing the two are apples and oranges. One is a developmental guy and one is a projected franchise QB. It was a late third round pick and if Mannion happens to develop into a solid #2 then I can live with it. I'm going to wait and see if he develops into a decent #2 option before I can justify ripping the Rams for the pick. For the record I liked Hundley over Mannion. But for that third round pick I wanted the Rams to draft Paul Dawson ILB. I thought we reached for Mannion and Donnal. But what do I know? I'll give it three years and come back to evaluate.

[Ramzee]

How can they use a first round pick on a position the year after spending a third on it? Gee almost sounds like Todd Gurley all over again. If You have a chance to upgrade at a clear position of need then you do it.

IMO it's called wasting draft picks and it's akin to having no foresight or "vision."

lol I always loved that winning formula of drafting a guy, drafting his replacement the next year, then trading the first guy you drafted for far less than what you spent to get him in the first place. Like people being more than happy to get a 5th round pick for Tre Mason.

A third rounder for a backup at QB or RB is a wasted pick? Interesting, how many draft picks actually pan out? Half? A third? I didn't realize we were shopping Mason but with his off field issues I doubt we would get a 5th for him with the leagues stance on off field issues.

My problem isn't with the position in the round. I don't expect lock Hall of Fame QB's to be available in the 3rd round. I wouldn't pass up on a premium talent in the 1st because we have a developmental maybe waiting in the wings. This isn't as much about QB's and Mannion as it is about the Rams proven drafting logic.

My problem is with the logic that it's cool to be spending premium pick after premium pick after pick on the same position year after year. I consider up to the 3rd round a premium pick. That's not progress on a team wide level, when you're a team with many many holes year after year. It's the enemy of progress. Maybe we can draft a replacement for GRob or Havenstein at OT this year? lol

The bottom line is IMO it's bad business to consistently spend premium picks on the same positions and even worse to trade them for less value than you spent in the first place after one or two seasons. Doing so is idiotic IMO. See: Jerome Bettis. That's bad drafting. Not even allowing the guy to develop before trading him/cutting him is even more stupid. See: Mark Barron. The reality is after one year, even two, the sample size is too small to determine anyways. There are plenty of guys in the league who get better with time. How do you know if that guy is the one if you don't have the patience enough to wait? There's certainly no guarantee your replacement will be any better.

[Ramzee]

Ramzee is in the house. Welcome.

Thanks bro! Nice to be here.