[Elvis]

http://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/9/t/1365791.aspx

(+7) San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears

SF worst team in NFL

Outside of a victory vs Falcons three weeks ago
SF dominated by opponents the other 8 most recent games:
First Downs: opponents 192; SF 105
Yards: opponents 3374; SF 2128
Time of Possession: opponents 284 mins; SF 196 mins

SF with worst net yardage differential in NFL (-1127) … over 400 yards worse than #31 team.

Wiseguys feel as if San Fran’s coaching staff has been overmatched this season.

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Vegas now considers Blaine Gabbert to be a slight upgrade over Colin Kaepernick

Many Wiseguys feel as if Chicago has been coached BETTER than any team in the league this season.

Bears have covered only 17 of last 43 games ATS

Bears have covered only 5 of their last 23 home games

Last 20 games: Opponents have outscored Bears 334-175 in First Half

(-10) Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

First time Bengals favored on the road by more than 9 points (database extends back to 1989)

NFL home underdogs +8 or bigger: 34-15 ATS

How big of a QB downgrade

Browns QB Austin Davis is certainly below average … but note that he STARTED 8 games last season for Rams.

Underdog series

Cincy vs. Cleveland: Favorite has covered only 3 of last 17 games in this series

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Road team in Cincinnati games has covered only 16 of last 46

Browns have many good players, but not at skill positions. It’s difficult to win with such limitations in the modern NFL.

Last season’s OC Kyle Shanahan departure from Browns a big loss (he’s excelling this year as OC for the Falcons)

Browns Dwayne Bowe: only 1 catch this entire season

Browns: #31 rushing offense

Cincy #1 scoring defense

(+2½) Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

50th out of 54 games Jax an underdog

Tennessee home field

Last 20 home games, Titans have covered only 3 times

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Tennessee: covered only 7 of last 32 games

Mariota sacked:
6 times last two weeks
1 time combined in two weeks prior
17 times in four weeks prior

Jags last 16 games: sacked 62 times

Tennessee: #30 offense by yards and by scoring

Jags #1 rushing D per attempt

(+3) Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills

Fundamental change

Houston has gone from running the most plays per game on offense (fastest pace) to running the least number of plays (slowest pace)!

Houston #30 yards per pass attempt
Houston #31 yards per rush attempt

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After losing on the road: Bills 25-7 ATS the next game

Vegas upgrades Texans by +2 points after last game (tied for second biggest upgrade of week)

(+4) Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins

Bad Miami Trends

Dolphins, as a home favorite: 13-40 ATS (back to 2003)

Dolphins have lost 14 of 15 AFTER playing Jets (4-11 ATS)

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Four games under coach Joe Philbin: Dolphins had a total of 1 sack. Seven games under Dan Campbell: 22 sacks

Road team in Miami games 68-50 ATS

Ravens playing first games in 17 years without either Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, or Terrell Suggs anchoring Ravens defense

Baltimore pass rush has been feeble this season

How will Harbaugh’s intensity and frustration wear on the team during a lost season?
Stakes have changed … can team rally around a new purpose?

Vegas downgrades Dolphins by 2.5 points (second biggest downgrade of week)

Miami worst rushing defense in NFL

(-7) Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

Early line (before last week’s game): Carolina -3.5 (via Westgate)

Only 3rd time since 1999 that Saints a home underdog by +6 or more

Carolina #1

First time this season Carolina ranked by Vegas as BEST TEAM in NFL! Carolina started the season ranked as a BELOW AVEAGE team (8.5 point improvement)

Carolina has outgained their opponent 16 of last 18 games

Change of Direction

Saints #3 offense
but
More than one Wiseguy has mentioned recently that Drew Brees simply looks old.

Saints #32 scoring defense
but
New Saints defensive coordinator Dennis Allen has received quite positive public feedback from his players … expect improvement on the defensive side of the ball for New Orleans.

Saints Home Field

Panthers have covered 11 of 14 in New Orleans

Saints at home: 4-8 ATS last 12
Prior 19 games: 18-0-1 ATS

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Ron Rivera had started seasons slow in past (SU)
2011: 1-5
2012: 1-6
2013: 1-3
2014: 2-2
But now …
2015: 11-0

Panthers in December: 24-13 ATS

Road team in Saints games (coached by Sean Payton) has covered 12 of last 20. Prior 44 games: road team covered only 6 times.

Coach Payton off a loss: 24-13 ATS

Saints off a road loss: 24-7 ATS [from 9/24/2007]

Saints have allowed opposing QBs to have be best passer rating (including yielding 30 TDs with only 5 INTs)

Carolina #3 highest scoring team
Carolina #2 defense
Carolina has hold opposing QBs to the worst passer rating (including yielding only 13 TDs with 19 INTs)

Carolina +16 turnover margin (best in NFL)

(PK) Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings

Stats that will surprise many

Minny: #1 rushing offense … #31 passing offense
Minny #2 scoring defense
but
Vikings have been outgained by opponents this season

Seattle has the second most rushing yards
and
Seattle #2 yards per pass attempt

Late Season Teams

Seattle in December: 14-2-1 ATS (prior four seasons)

Vikings in December: 11-2 ATS

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Initially it was thought that Seattle’s O-line just needed experience – now, Wiseguys are speculating the players are just not that good.

Seattle thinner on defense than in recent years – which might not hurt for a single game, but a significant negative factor on the season … and might be the source of some of Seattle’s 2nd Half problems.

Seattle also lost key coaches this offseason (possibly inferior halftime adjustments)

Seattle (starting in 2005): at home (62-30-2)
On road during same period: 37-52-2
If simply play on at home, against on road: 114-67-4 ATS

Seattle: 38-21-2 ATS overall last 61 games

Seattle: 21-11-2 ATS vs. teams with a winning record

Seattle vs Non-Div foes: 32-19-2 ATS

[borderline]
Last 23 times Seattle an underdog, lost against the spread only FIVE TIMES

Seattle in December or later: 19-6-1 ATS (last four seasons)

(-5½) Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams

Arizona’s Consistency

Arizona best net yardage differential in NFL (+920) … and it’s not even close: #2 Denver is +663

Arizona: #1 offense by yards and by scoring

In Cardinals two losses this season: Arizona -6 in turnovers
(Arz outgained the victor in both games – by a combined 278 yards)
Arizona has not really been outplayed yet this season.

Carson Palmer has won 22 of 26 starts

Arizona has allowed only FIVE 100 yard rushers last 38 games

Arizona RBs

Arizona RB Chris Johnson OUT. His counting stats were good … but the advanced metrics have graded his performance this season as below average.
Back-up Andre Ellington questionable.
Rookie David Johnson thrust into larger role (35 carries for 139 yards) … leads all rookie running backs and receivers with eight total touchdowns.

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Vegas ranks Keenum and Foles EQUAL

Rams: #31 offense by yards and by scoring

Todd Gurley rushing decline:
19 yards (9 carries) last week
66 yards (25 carries) two weeks ago
45 yards (12 carries) three weeks ago
89 yards four weeks ago
133 yards five weeks ago
128 yards six weeks ago
159 yards seven weeks ago
146 yards eight weeks ago

Jeff Fischer strong as underdog throughout his coaching career
winning 58% of the time against the Vegas number when getting points [97-70 ATS]

[borderline]
Last 14 times Rams home dogs by 6 points or more: lost only TWICE Against The Spread

Cards on road 48-61-4 ATS (since 2002)

Coach Brice Arians 18-10 ATS as a favorite

Arizona is 27-10 SU last 37 (no matter who the QB)
Losing only 13 times against the spread

Rams #32 yards per pass attempt

(+1½) Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Both teams MAX motivated

Tampa to stay in the playoff race

Atlanta to break losing streak.
though
Matt Ryan seems more and more physically limited as the season progresses.

TB Home Struggles

Tampa has lost 12 of 14 at home.
Tampa at home: 17-39 ATS

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Next game after a loss: Atlanta 30-17 ATS (9-14 ATS last 23)
Falcons Off a loss of 6 or more points:
22-9 ATS last 31 (started 17-0 ATS, but 5-9 ATS since)

Devonta Freeman had 10 TDs early in the season over a four game stretch (only one TD the last five weeks)

Atlanta with 3rd best yardage differential in NFL (+599)

Tampa with 10th best yardage differential in NFL (+324)

Falcons on road: 7-14 SU

Tampa in December: 12-27-1 ATS (last 8 seasons)

Bucs in games decide by 6 points or less under Lovie Smith: 3-9 SU

Vegas ranks Atlanta as a lesser team right now (-1.5 compared to average NFL team) than they did at the start of the season (-.5)

Falcons have played an exceptionally easy strength of schedule.

Falcons struggle putting pressure on the opposing QB

Tampa #3 rushing offense

Atlanta’s D has yielded only 13 TD passes (with 13 interceptions)

(-2½) New York Jets at New York Giants

Last 25 times Giants a home underdog, won game only 4 times

Giants OVERrated

Giants #31 in yardage differential (-715)

Giants +9 turnover margin (third best in NFL)

Jets Back to decent health

Players missing games were not the biggest names, so the market undervalued how badly NYJ were affected by injuries.

Not Full Home Field Advantage for NYG

Elements of Home Field Advantage

1) Travel
2) Familiar surroundings at home
3) Familiar field
4) Crowd

ONLY #4 applies in this game (due to ticket circustances)

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At home: Giants only 2 of 16 winning seasons ATS

Giants vs. winning teams:
3-16 SU (6-13 ATS)

Vegas downgrades Giants by 2.5 points (third biggest downgrade of week)

Vegas upgrades Jets by +2 points after last game (tied for second biggest upgrade of week)

18 of last 23 Jets losses by a TD or more
Early line (before last week’s game): Giants -1.5 (via Westgate)

Giants #32 defense

Jets #1 rush defense

(-4) Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers

Denver last 59 games, favored 54 times

WOW

Broncos have won 14 straight divisional road games (SU) – an NFL record (13-1 ATS record)

Passing the torch?

Vegas ranks Manning and Osweiler EQUAL

SD Home Field Limited

3 current reasons:
- high percentage of transient residence means less rabid fans, and more fans of other teams
- team not winning
- speculation about team leaving San Diego

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Denver has won 36 games since the start of 2013 season:
27 of first 30 wins by a TD or more.
(but only 1 of last 6)

December or later: San Diego, December and later: 38-14 SU (31-21 ATS)

Chargers defense had only 1 sack first three games – had 20 last eight games

SD: #6 offense
SD: #31 yards yielded per pass by opponent

Denver: #1 Defense

SD #32 D per rush attempt
(-3) Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders

Rolling

KC has covered 5 straight (beating the spread by an average of over 17+ points per game)

Oakland Impressing below radar

Vegas Rankings has upgraded Oakland the second most of any team since the start of the season (only Carolina upgraded more)

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Oakland at home: 35-63-1 (since 2003) … including 9-17 ATS last 26

Wiseguys supported KC heavily early in the season (mostly unsuccessfully) … more recently: KC with five easy covers in their last give games

Alex Smith last 69 games as a starter: 46-22-1 SU

Andy Reid has excelled away from home: 86-55 ATS

Last 23 road games, Chiefs have lost only 7 TIMES against the spread

KC as division favorites: 5-15 ATS

KC +12 turnover margin (second best in NFL)

(+10) Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots

Only 2nd time Eagles a double digit underdog since 2007

Pats downgraded

Patriots with significant injuries on offensive line
and at skill positions
Have injuries finally reached a tipping-point of limitations?
Replacing skill players during the season is MUCH more difficult than replacing during offseason.

NE limited not only loss of players, but it’s current “thinness” at the skill position will likely motivate Belichick to play conservatively … this is a big negative since NE throws the ball so much more effectively than they run the ball.

Vegas says …
High-point for NE a month ago … +11 points better than average NFL team
Currently rated +5.5 points better than average NFL team

Trends

Pats at home in regular season NOT laying Double Digits: 28-8 ATS
Laying Double Digits: 6-12 ATS

Off loss, Patriots 31-11 ATS (since 2003)

Opponent who have lost 2 or more straight games, Patriots 34-16 ATS (in Tom Brady era)

Quit?

Professional bettors are asking serious questions about what level of effort can be expected from the Eagles this week.

No reasonable amount of points can compensate for a team who does not try 100%.

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Typically fading popular teams more profitable (since public support places a premium on such teams) … but, starting AFTER Brady and Belichick’s first Super Bowl victory, in every game since: 137-102-6 ATS

Don't underestimate how quickly Vegas adjusts to a dominate team: legendary 2007
Patriots started 8-0 ATS, but then went 2-9 ATS after that

Vegas downgrades Eagles by 3 points (biggest downgrade of week)

Eagles downgraded by 6.5 points since start of season (second biggest downgrade behind only Baltimore)

Vegas ranks Bradford +1 points over Sanchez

SNF: (+7) Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers

Steelers 2-15 ATS when FAVORED the week BEFORE playing Cincinnati

Vegas ranks Hesselbeck -4 compared to Luck

Colts in December: 12-5-1 ATS

Pitt: #30 passing defense

MNF: (+4½) Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins

Dream Crusher

The Cowboys playoff dream was crushed with last week’s loss plus the injury to Romo … you have to wonder about the Dallas effort this week.

Romo worth 6 points per game

H/A

Washington this season:
Home 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS)
Away 0-5 SU (1-4 ATS)

Cousins:
Home: 113 Passer Rating
Away: 69.8 Passer Rating

Redskins current stadium opened in 1997.
Over that period …
Home teams league-wide played 5.34 points better at home.
Not counting this season, Redskins have played only 3.03 points better at home.

Washington at home vs. team with fewer wins: 2-17 ATS

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Dallas as dogs by more than a FG: 18-4 ATS

Cowboys on MNF: 1-9 ATS

The underdog in Dallas games has covered 67% of the time (60-30 ATS since 2010)

Cowboys, playing within the division: 24-38 ATS

Late in the season is not the time to back the Cowboys.
Since 2005, Dallas has covered only 37% of games in December (15-26-1)
(4-0 ATS in 2014)

Dallas on road:
2-3 in 2015
Dallas 8-0 SU on road during 2014 regular season (every other team lost at least 3 road games) (2007 Pats only other 8-0 SU regular season team since 1991)

Kirk Cousins has highest interception rate of any active QB with at least 400 career passes. Extremely difficult to win in the NFL turning the ball over

Washington O-line scheme/coaching liked by wiseguys

Redskins (since start of 2013 season)
12-31 SU (15-28 ATS)

Redskins have lost 8 of 11 against the spread AFTER playing Giants

Redskins: 15-5 ATS vs. Cowboys

Wash as favorite: 53-85-3 ATS

Vegas upgrades Washington by +2 points after last game (tied for second biggest upgrade of week)

Dallas -12 turnover margin (worst in NFL)

RJ Bell - Pregame.com Founder & CEO | Twitter: @RJinVegas

[Elvis]

Here's the Rams part:

(-5½) Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams

Arizona’s Consistency

Arizona best net yardage differential in NFL (+920) … and it’s not even close: #2 Denver is +663

Arizona: #1 offense by yards and by scoring

In Cardinals two losses this season: Arizona -6 in turnovers
(Arz outgained the victor in both games – by a combined 278 yards)
Arizona has not really been outplayed yet this season.

Carson Palmer has won 22 of 26 starts

Arizona has allowed only FIVE 100 yard rushers last 38 games

Arizona RBs

Arizona RB Chris Johnson OUT. His counting stats were good … but the advanced metrics have graded his performance this season as below average.
Back-up Andre Ellington questionable.
Rookie David Johnson thrust into larger role (35 carries for 139 yards) … leads all rookie running backs and receivers with eight total touchdowns.

MORE

Vegas ranks Keenum and Foles EQUAL

Rams: #31 offense by yards and by scoring

Todd Gurley rushing decline:
19 yards (9 carries) last week
66 yards (25 carries) two weeks ago
45 yards (12 carries) three weeks ago
89 yards four weeks ago
133 yards five weeks ago
128 yards six weeks ago
159 yards seven weeks ago
146 yards eight weeks ago

Jeff Fischer strong as underdog throughout his coaching career
winning 58% of the time against the Vegas number when getting points [97-70 ATS]

[borderline]
Last 14 times Rams home dogs by 6 points or more: lost only TWICE Against The Spread

Cards on road 48-61-4 ATS (since 2002)

Coach Brice Arians 18-10 ATS as a favorite

Arizona is 27-10 SU last 37 (no matter who the QB)
Losing only 13 times against the spread

Rams #32 yards per pass attempt

[Stranger]

Our offense is such a goddam embarrassment. Geesh.