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 by aeneas1
5 years 5 months ago
 Total posts:   16894  
 Joined:  Sep 13 2015
United States of America   Norcal
Hall of Fame

pass attempts per game have soared since 1970 and, with them, offensive points per game.

compared to 1970-1975 (see following chart), 2018 pass attempts per game are up 41% while offensive points per game are up 30%... more recently, compared to 2006-2010, 2018 pass attempts per game are up 10% while offensive points per game are up 17%.

me? throw the ball. and find guys who can stop the bad guys from throwing the ball (successfully).

VirtualBox_2018-10-21_02-43-43.png


note: stats are for games 1-6 for all season shown.

 by phoenixrising
5 years 5 months ago
 Total posts:   816  
 Joined:  Aug 05 2016
United States of America   Arroyo Grande, CA
Veteran

Reluctantly, I have to agree with you. I've argued against you in the past. Removing the QB's fear of getting hit has made a huge difference in the way the game is played.

 by snackdaddy
5 years 5 months ago
 Total posts:   9630  
 Joined:  May 30 2015
United States of America   Merced California
Hall of Fame

phoenixrising wrote:Reluctantly, I have to agree with you. I've argued against you in the past. Removing the QB's fear of getting hit has made a huge difference in the way the game is played.


Not to mention you can't jar the ball loose with from a receiver going over the middle with a hard hit. Player safety rules almost always favor the offense and passing game.

 by aeneas1
5 years 5 months ago
 Total posts:   16894  
 Joined:  Sep 13 2015
United States of America   Norcal
Hall of Fame

phoenixrising wrote:Removing the QB's fear of getting hit has made a huge difference in the way the game is played.

i think it's more than that, it seems that "like thinking" among nfl teams through the decades has been equally responsible, i.e. teams aping other teams, reluctant to change until other teams change, very few coaches thinking outside of the box, reluctant (or flat-out not knowing how) to lead the way, out of fear of failure / firing.

in this chart i've added the afl circa 1960-1965, a league that came out throwing the ball compared to their nfl rivals, and with those throws came offensive points... through 6 games the 2018 teams are throwing the ball 14% more than the 1960-1965 afl teams, and scoring 10% more.

as far as i know, no one ever accused afl qbs of having it easy in terms of league protection, those guys got their arses kicked!


VirtualBox_2018-10-21_09-55-17.png

 by phoenixrising
5 years 5 months ago
 Total posts:   816  
 Joined:  Aug 05 2016
United States of America   Arroyo Grande, CA
Veteran

snackdaddy wrote:Not to mention you can't jar the ball loose with from a receiver going over the middle with a hard hit. Player safety rules almost always favor the offense and passing game.


That too. There's been a steady progression. I just think the quantum leap in QB play this year is due to the fear factor.

 by phoenixrising
5 years 5 months ago
 Total posts:   816  
 Joined:  Aug 05 2016
United States of America   Arroyo Grande, CA
Veteran

aeneas1 wrote:i think it's more than that, it seems that "like thinking" among nfl teams through the decades has been equally responsible, i.e. teams aping other teams, reluctant to change until other teams change, very few coaches thinking outside of the box, reluctant (or flat-out not knowing how) to lead the way, out of fear of failure / firing.

in this chart i've added the afl circa 1960-1965, a league that came out throwing the ball compared to their nfl rivals, and with those throws came offensive points... through 6 games the 2018 teams are throwing the ball 14% more than the 1960-1965 afl teams, and scoring 10% more.

as far as i know, no one ever accused afl qbs of having it easy in terms of league protection, those guys got their arses kicked!


I guess where I've finally succumbed is I no longer believe you can win with a run the ball/defense first mentality. Prior to this year I still maintained it could be done, ala Tom Coughlin, etc. That's where we use to disagree.

I think now you are crazy to hire anything other than an offense guy as head coach. While a defense HC can be successful with the right OC, the OC just gets hired away as HC.

Let's just say the McVay effect has gotten to me!

 by aeneas1
5 years 5 months ago
 Total posts:   16894  
 Joined:  Sep 13 2015
United States of America   Norcal
Hall of Fame

phoenixrising wrote:I guess where I've finally succumbed is I no longer believe you can win with a run the ball/defense first mentality. Prior to this year I still maintained it could be done, ala Tom Coughlin, etc. That's where we use to disagree.

I think now you are crazy to hire anything other than an offense guy as head coach. While a defense HC can be successful with the right OC, the OC just gets hired away as HC.

Let's just say the McVay effect has gotten to me!

honestly, i don't think i remember that, ha ha... re win with a run the ball / defense mentality, i think that used to clearly be the case, but primarily because that's what everyone (relatively speaking) was trying to do, it was just a matter of who did it better, ha ha, but the league has obviously shifted away from that approach (despite fisher not wanting to believe it, and probably not knowing how to change).

 by snackdaddy
5 years 5 months ago
 Total posts:   9630  
 Joined:  May 30 2015
United States of America   Merced California
Hall of Fame

phoenixrising wrote:That too. There's been a steady progression. I just think the quantum leap in QB play this year is due to the fear factor.


Yup, the Chiefs defender let Brady score because he thought Brady was throwing the ball and didn't want to get penalized.

 by aeneas1
5 years 5 months ago
 Total posts:   16894  
 Joined:  Sep 13 2015
United States of America   Norcal
Hall of Fame

i dunno guys, like every year i've seen qbs take shots in 2018, including goff, whether it's during a sack or after the ball is released, goff has been drilled more than a few times this season, and has gotten up slowly, something the 22 shows well.... my guess is if you asked nfl qbs if they think they now have a free lunch back there, and no longer have to worry about hard hits, you wouldn't get too many "yeah, it's awesome now!".

btw, i'm hugely in favor of the new rules to protect the qb, altho i'm not in favor of how arbitrary and inconsistent some of the calls have been... i've always loved the controlled violence of the nfl, but what i've never liked, ever, was when defenders drilled unprotected qbs, especially from the blindside, it was bullshit, and so were the celebrations, as if the defender took out a ready equal, mano a mano, instead it was just celebrating after cold-clocking a (usually much smaller) guy.

 by phoenixrising
5 years 5 months ago
 Total posts:   816  
 Joined:  Aug 05 2016
United States of America   Arroyo Grande, CA
Veteran

aeneas1 wrote:i dunno guys, like every year i've seen qbs take shots in 2018, including goff, whether it's during a sack or after the ball is released, goff has been drilled more than a few times this season, and has gotten up slowly, something the 22 shows well.... my guess is if you asked nfl qbs if they think they now have a free lunch back there, and no longer have to worry about hard hits, you wouldn't get too many "yeah, it's awesome now!".

btw, i'm hugely in favor of the new rules to protect the qb, altho i'm not in favor of how arbitrary and inconsistent some of the calls have been... i've always loved the controlled violence of the nfl, but what i've never liked, ever, was when defenders drilled unprotected qbs, especially from the blindside, it was bullshit, and so were the celebrations, as if the defender took out a ready equal, mano a mano, instead it was just celebrating after cold-clocking a (usually much smaller) guy.


Oh, the QB's still take hits. But when you don't have to worry as much about blowing out your knees, or getting drilled senseless in the melon it's a big difference. And I think back to that cheap shot Clay Mathews put on Nick Foles--just went completely horizontal and speared him in the sternum with the crown of his helmet--seemed like Foles was never the same after that.

I agree completely with the second part. It's not really sport to watch a 300 lber running a 4.7 teeing off on a totally vulnerable 220 lber.

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14 posts Mar 28 2024