475 posts
  • 26 / 48
  • 1
  • 26
  • 48
 by Horny Mcbae
5 years 7 months ago
 Total posts:   1543  
 Joined:  Mar 12 2018
United States of America   South Bay, Los Angeles
Pro Bowl

I was reading an article about Running Backs and of course they talked about Todd and his new contract and there were a few insights into how the negotiatons went that might be relevant to the way Snead and the Rams are negotiating with Donald.. I'll post the relevant content but you can read the whole thing here.....

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/8/16/17697750/running-back-market-todd-gurley-position-allure


When Snead, Rams chief operating officer Kevin Demoff, and Gurley’s agent, Ari Nissim, began negotiations for an extension, they all understood that they were venturing into uncharted territory. “Because Le’Veon didn’t get a long-term deal, we were the rebels,” Snead says. “We were the pioneers blazing the trail. It becomes creative between ourselves, Todd, and Ari.”

A few relevant contract numbers served as reference points, but none were tied to current deals at the position. Before Gurley inked his contract, Freeman’s five-year, $41.3 million deal included the highest average annual value at the position. For Gurley, that price was a nonstarter. To Nissim and Roc Nation, Gurley occupied a different plane than any other back who’d recently signed long-term deals. Finding the right number became a matter of discerning Gurley’s value relative to all players around the league. “With [RB], it’s really just two letters in the alphabet,” Snead says. “Then there’s a subset of human beings that play running back. In Todd’s case, he’s the offensive MVP … so he’s not just a ‘running back.’ He’s not just an RB.”

In trying to decipher the proper price tag, two letters—RB—gave way to four: OPOY. Gurley’s status as the 2017 Offensive Player of the Year had a profound effect on the way the two sides discussed his value. Rather than getting bogged down in any one stat, the debate turned more theoretical.

Gurley’s workload as a receiver may have been limited during his first two NFL seasons under former head coach Jeff Fisher, but successor Sean McVay saw a player ready and willing to take on more responsibility. “Just seeing the stuff in OTAs [last year], you kind of got excited,” Gurley says. “Seeing guys like Chris Thompson and Matt Jones, what he was doing with those guys [in Washington]. You see the way the league has changed, becoming more of a passing league, and you want to get in on the fun.”

What makes Gurley so valuable is that he’s a 224-pounder who can occupy the same role, with the same effectiveness, as the 195-pound Thompson. With players like Gurley and Bell, the label third-down back becomes obsolete. These guys can stay on the field in any situation, and because they’re viewed as such rushing threats on early downs, passes in those scenarios become all the more effective. Bell tallied 38 of his 85 receptions on first down, the fifth-highest mark in the league. Gurley hauled in 26 catches on first down—41 percent of his total. On those plays, he averaged 12.7 yards per reception, a better first-down average than Larry Fitzgerald, Keenan Allen, and Michael Thomas. “He can run, and catch, and block for us, which allows Sean to do a lot more,” Snead says. “Because he can do all three things, [you have] less tendencies.”

There were two numbers that came to serve as the foundation of Gurley’s negotiation. “The anchor point was probably Le’Veon’s franchise tag, and then probably, which seems outdated, but the Adrian Peterson standard,” Snead says. “He’s more than just an RB. He’s Adrian Peterson.” Because Peterson’s deal was signed seven years ago, in an era with a different salary-cap structure, the percentage of the cap occupied by that contract, rather than the total, became a jumping-off point. Both sides reached figures they could live with: $57.5 million with $45 million in guarantees and an AAV of $14.4 million. All three are the highest in the league at the position, and with a four-year deal, Gurley is set to hit free agency again before age 30.

Snead knows the risk involved in giving a running back a paradigm-shifting contract. He also knows that special players like Gurley don’t come along often. “Human beings go to the Hall of Fame,” Snead says. “Positions don’t.”

When Gurley signed his deal, it was cause for running backs at every level to rejoice. High school stars saw reason to stay at the position. Cook saw a light at the end of his rookie contract. The trajectory of the narrative around the state of the running back changed. And based on results from the past few seasons, it seems like it may trend upward for years to come. “It feels good, to be able to be that guy, to set the bar high,” Gurley says. “One thing about the league, we love to see another guy get his payday. And I’m happy to be one of the guys on top.”

 by /zn/
5 years 7 months ago
 Total posts:   6758  
 Joined:  Jun 28 2015
United States of America   Maine
Hall of Fame

Vincent Bonsignore
I expect Donald to be back by the end of the preseason. Whether it's under a new deal....not sure yet. Obviously there is ground to be made up. They are talking, and both sides are motivated. That's always a good sign

 by snackdaddy
5 years 7 months ago
 Total posts:   9631  
 Joined:  May 30 2015
United States of America   Merced California
Hall of Fame

/zn/ wrote:Vincent Bonsignore
I expect Donald to be back by the end of the preseason. Whether it's under a new deal....not sure yet. Obviously there is ground to be made up. They are talking, and both sides are motivated. That's always a good sign


It does make sense for Donald to report. There is a precedent for someone holding out into the season. But it didn't work out too well. Kam Chancellor held out the first two games in 2015 but reported without a new deal. It was two years before he got his new deal.

Donald could report without a new deal and expect to be franchise tagged next season. But it will be way less than what he could likely sign for right now. And there will be another holdout next year.

Both sides would be better served if they could find that common ground. I believe the team has more leverage than Donald. This holdout is his only leverage and it would not be productive for him to continue it into the season.

 by /zn/
5 years 7 months ago
 Total posts:   6758  
 Joined:  Jun 28 2015
United States of America   Maine
Hall of Fame

snackdaddy wrote:It does make sense for Donald to report. There is a precedent for someone holding out into the season. But it didn't work out too well. Kam Chancellor held out the first two games in 2015 but reported without a new deal. It was two years before he got his new deal.

Donald could report without a new deal and expect to be franchise tagged next season. But it will be way less than what he could likely sign for right now. And there will be another holdout next year.

Both sides would be better served if they could find that common ground. I believe the team has more leverage than Donald. This holdout is his only leverage and it would not be productive for him to continue it into the season.


My expectation is that if he is tagged next year he doesn't report and demands a trade. A tag counts against the cap whether or not the player reports (there are details on how that works but still, it counts). That I have seen, namebrand players who demand trades get traded. Either that or the Rams face a cap hit for Donald without either having Donald or getting anything for him.

Anyway as I keep saying, I don't put this (the slow dealmaking) either on Donald or the Rams. IMO, to me, both assumptions are just that, assumptions.

 by Hacksaw
5 years 7 months ago
 Total posts:   24523  
 Joined:  Apr 15 2015
United States of America   AT THE BEACH
Moderator

/zn/ wrote:Disagree. The assumption that it is all on Donald is against the few facts we have. Those facts are, they are working and negotiating and moving toward compromise. That probably means BOTH that the Rams initial offer was too low, and that Donald's initial demand was too high, and that it always was just going to be a tough negotiation striving for middle ground. Which as far as we know right now, is exactly what they're doing.

There are all sorts of professionals in the NFL who struggle with contracts just like this one all the time. There's nothing that makes it automatically smooth, or that backs the assumption that management is always getting it right. There's no more reason to assume the Rams are completely in the right on this than there are reasons to assume AD is completely in the wrong. For that matter, given what we know, the same statement works in reverse too.

Given what facts we have, there's nothing to support the assumption that Donald is the problem, or that the Rams are. For that matter it could be both. From another point of view it's possible there isn't a problem at all...just hard negotiations.


Seems to me that if the Rams offer was to low it would be Donald who was the one determining that. I assume that the rams have a line they don't feel comfortable crossing based on salary cap restraints and future team needs. If the deal was fat enough Donald would have signed it already so it's most likely to low for AD (or his expectations are too high) .

 by /zn/
5 years 7 months ago
 Total posts:   6758  
 Joined:  Jun 28 2015
United States of America   Maine
Hall of Fame

Hacksaw wrote:Seems to me that if the Rams offer was to low it would be Donald who was the one determining that. I assume that the rams have a line they don't feel comfortable crossing based on salary cap restraints and future team needs. If the deal was fat enough Donald would have signed it already so it's most likely to low for AD (or his expectations are too high) .


My post for the day on this.

My take is, given what little we actually know right now, many different and opposite statements could be equally true (or false) at this point. So I can just reverse your statements about it and what I come up with, for all we know, is just as possibly true or false as yours are.

So another (hypothetical) view of it is that the Rams might be too slow to offer AD what he is worth in this market, which actually isn't that hard to figure out. Before, with guys like Watts and Von Miller, a "best defender" type was getting around 80% of what the highest paid qb was getting. This year that would be about 24 M. So hypothetically, if the Rams aren't offering that yet, why would AD sign for less than what he's worth? In terms of the cap that number is affordable, and team needs are easy with this one---a team needs to sign its elite players, especially ones who make an entire unit better. Again, hypothetically (because we don;t know) maybe the Rams are reluctant to cross a line and pay AD more than all but 6 or 7 qbs in the league get. If so, in this hypothetical take on it, IMO the Rams would be the problem.

What isn't hypothetical about that is that yes a cap hit in that range is affordable, even with Goff coming up in a year or 2. And signing a core of key, including elite, players IS the way you sustain a team (Goff, AD, Cooks, Gurley, probably Peters, with room in future caps for a few more).

What do I personally believe is happening? Well based on satellite recon photos of what appear to be the tea leaves in this cup 8-) .... I would say it's a typical tough negotiation where the Rams started out way too low and AD way too high and they are slogging it out toward a workable middle ground. I also believe the Rams want Donald and Donald wants to be a Ram. As deals go this is a tough one though because the numbers involved break the top 10 qb contracts barrier, and that freaks some people in the league out (which to me is fine because Watt and Von Miller already did that in earlier years). And that's nobody's "fault." It's just how it works.

Some day we really could know which if any of these scenarios (yours, my hypothetical one, others) is actually close to what really happened.

Meanwhile go Rams and enjoy the game today.

...

 by TomSlick
5 years 7 months ago
 Total posts:   2907  
 Joined:  Jun 01 2015
Italy   Many of us know the feeling of the universe conspiring to bring car and driver together.
Superstar

/zn/ wrote:Well based on satellite recon photos of what appear to be the tea leaves in this cup 8-)


That's some snappy writing, zn. Excellent.

 by Hacksaw
5 years 7 months ago
 Total posts:   24523  
 Joined:  Apr 15 2015
United States of America   AT THE BEACH
Moderator

/zn/ wrote:My post for the day on this.

My take is, given what little we actually know right now, many different and opposite statements could be equally true (or false) at this point. So I can just reverse your statements about it and what I come up with, for all we know, is just as possibly true or false as yours are.

So another (hypothetical) view of it is that the Rams might be too slow to offer AD what he is worth in this market, which actually isn't that hard to figure out. Before, with guys like Watts and Von Miller, a "best defender" type was getting around 80% of what the highest paid qb was getting. This year that would be about 24 M. So hypothetically, if the Rams aren't offering that yet, why would AD sign for less than what he's worth? In terms of the cap that number is affordable, and team needs are easy with this one---a team needs to sign its elite players, especially ones who make an entire unit better. Again, hypothetically (because we don;t know) maybe the Rams are reluctant to cross a line and pay AD more than all but 6 or 7 qbs in the league get. If so, in this hypothetical take on it, IMO the Rams would be the problem.

What isn't hypothetical about that is that yes a cap hit in that range is affordable, even with Goff coming up in a year or 2. And signing a core of key, including elite, players IS the way you sustain a team (Goff, AD, Cooks, Gurley, probably Peters, with room in future caps for a few more).

What do I personally believe is happening? Well based on satellite recon photos of what appear to be the tea leaves in this cup 8-) .... I would say it's a typical tough negotiation where the Rams started out way too low and AD way too high and they are slogging it out toward a workable middle ground. I also believe the Rams want Donald and Donald wants to be a Ram. As deals go this is a tough one though because the numbers involved break the top 10 qb contracts barrier, and that freaks some people in the league out (which to me is fine because Watt and Von Miller already did that in earlier years). And that's nobody's "fault." It's just how it works.

Some day we really could know which if any of these scenarios (yours, my hypothetical one, others) is actually close to what really happened.

Meanwhile go Rams and enjoy the game today.

...


Too low an offer by whos calculation..?

 by Zen_Ronin
5 years 7 months ago
 Total posts:   2036  
 Joined:  Sep 26 2016
Canada   Edmonton, AB
Pro Bowl

Demoff saying Donald wants to be playing against the Raiders week 1 is a good thing. Not sure where he got that, but one would assume it was said during one of his conversations with McVay. I think the communication between McVay and Donald during the negotiations is a real positive, regardless of the outcome.

 by dieterbrock
5 years 7 months ago
 Total posts:   11512  
 Joined:  Mar 31 2015
United States of America   New Jersey
Hall of Fame

Zen_Ronin wrote:Demoff saying Donald wants to be playing against the Raiders week 1 is a good thing. Not sure where he got that, but one would assume it was said during one of his conversations with McVay. I think the communication between McVay and Donald during the negotiations is a real positive, regardless of the outcome.

Was great to hear Demoff so positive about it in the booth yesterday. Really great

  • 26 / 48
  • 1
  • 26
  • 48
475 posts Mar 28 2024