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 by R4L
5 years 10 months ago
 Total posts:   1301  
 Joined:  May 08 2017
United States of America   Dayton, Ohio
Pro Bowl

So i really don't care for the Rams picks this season. They call him trader Les but sometimes trading down for a bunch of 6th round picks isn't the way to go imo. I know guys like Peters, Talib and Cooks are part of this draft, but i will consider it a great off-season if and when Peters and Cooks re-sign. So i decided to look up Snead's draft record on picks. The Redskins trade was supposed to stock this team well into the future but there are only Brockers and Donald left to show for it. This is all my opinion so some may disagree. Looking forward to your comments.

2012
Good
Brockers
Jenkins
Johnson
Zuerlein

Bad
Quick
Pead
Watkins
A.Brown
D.Richardson

2013
Good
Ogletree
McDonald

Bad
Austin
Bailey
B. Jones
McGee
Stacey

2014
Good
Donald
Joyner
Gaines

Bad
Robinson
Mason
Alexander
Gilbert
Van Dyk
Bryant
Sam
Rhaney

2015
Good
Gurley
Havenstein
Brown
Mannion
Hager

Bad
Donnal
Sasser
Wichmann
Ifedi

2016
Good
Goff
Higbee
Hemingway?
Thomas

Bad
Forrest

2017
Good
Everett?
Kupp
Johnson
Reynolds
Ebukam
Smart?

Bad
Rogers

The guys with question marks are unknowns at this point but are still on the roster.

 by Flash
5 years 10 months ago
 Total posts:   1203  
 Joined:  Jan 13 2016
United States of America   Houston
Pro Bowl

I was going to write something along the lines that drafting for Fisher's scheme probably handicapped Snead some. But then going over the list, did he have some misses? Yes but all in all I'd say above average.
Moving forward with a 21st century scheme I could even better resuts (once we start picking in first round again).

 by /zn/
5 years 10 months ago
 Total posts:   6758  
 Joined:  Jun 28 2015
United States of America   Maine
Hall of Fame

R4L wrote:So i really don't care for the Rams picks this season. They call him trader Les but sometimes trading down for a bunch of 6th round picks isn't the way to go imo. I know guys like Peters, Talib and Cooks are part of this draft, but i will consider it a great off-season if and when Peters and Cooks re-sign. So i decided to look up Snead's draft record on picks. The Redskins trade was supposed to stock this team well into the future but there are only Brockers and Donald left to show for it. This is all my opinion so some may disagree. Looking forward to your comments.

2012
Good
Brockers
Jenkins
Johnson
Zuerlein

Bad
Quick
Pead
Watkins
A.Brown
D.Richardson

2013
Good
Ogletree
McDonald

Bad
Austin
Bailey
B. Jones
McGee
Stacey

2014
Good
Donald
Joyner
Gaines

Bad
Robinson
Mason
Alexander
Gilbert
Van Dyk
Bryant
Sam
Rhaney

2015
Good
Gurley
Havenstein
Brown
Mannion
Hager

Bad
Donnal
Sasser
Wichmann
Ifedi

2016
Good
Goff
Higbee
Hemingway?
Thomas

Bad
Forrest

2017
Good
Everett?
Kupp
Johnson
Reynolds
Ebukam
Smart?

Bad
Rogers

The guys with question marks are unknowns at this point but are still on the roster.


It;s too soon to do 2017. Or 2016. Counting back from 2015, I don't think we know enough to count Mannion. So I put him with unknowns. For 2014 picks, Alexander played for a year under Wms, and was graded well, but did not fit Wade's scheme. That's not on Snead. That's a system fit issue. So I count him as a hit. 2013, I don't count Bailey against them...he got shot. Has nothing to do with Snead. So I don't count him either way. I don 't count Austin as a bad pick. He was productive in his role as an offensive weapon, and until 2017 on special teams too. In terms of just hits and misses, that's a hit. If you're going to go beyond hits and misses and grade picks, then you mark Austin down for not living up to high first round value. But that;s a different issue.

So I come up with this. Doing just 2012-15, and not counting Bailey either way, it's:

Hits: 15
Misses or unknowns: 20

That's a hit percentage of 42.8%.

I have done this kind of thing before where I compare the Rams raw basic hit percentage to known good drafting teams. Here's what I've found.

Below 20% is just plain awful.
Below 30% is poor.
Average hit rate is 30% to mid 30s.
High 30s edging up to 40% is above average, approaching good.
Good hit rate is 40% to high 40s.
50% is very rare and is exceptional.

In addition to having a hit rate in the 40s, if you;re just going to grade them, you have to consider these things.

* Austin was picked too high for what his real role was. Robinson was a bust, and a 2nd pick bust has to count against you.

* Very few teams in all of NFL history have accomplished the following or anything like it--picked an offensive rookie of the year who became an offensive player of the year, picked a defensive rookie of the year who became a defensive player of the year, picked a qb who was a solid pro bowler in his 2nd season. (I didn't do hit percentage on the 2016 draft but now in this part of the discussion, it;s fair to count Goff.)

Off the top of my head, I would say that was like the Steelers in 69-72, when in 4 drafts with high picks, they got Joe Greene, Bradshaw, and Harris.

Some people say, well, the Rams picked high a lot. Okay. But. Virtually every team has picked high at some point in its history. But very few teams that picked high scored that way, like the Rams did in 2014-2016.

 by snackdaddy
5 years 10 months ago
 Total posts:   9631  
 Joined:  May 30 2015
United States of America   Merced California
Hall of Fame

When grading overall drafts I always felt including late rounders is a moot point. How many GM's hit a lot on day 3 picks? Most those guys don't end up good NFL players. A few turn out ok, some round out the depth chart and some don't make it at all.

 by dieterbrock
5 years 10 months ago
 Total posts:   11512  
 Joined:  Mar 31 2015
United States of America   New Jersey
Hall of Fame

snackdaddy wrote:When grading overall drafts I always felt including late rounders is a moot point. How many GM's hit a lot on day 3 picks? Most those guys don't end up good NFL players. A few turn out ok, some round out the depth chart and some don't make it at all.

Agreed.
I find it hard to consider anything after a 3rd rounder to be a miss.
I also don't know how to judge the hit/misses from the Fisher era, because of the offensive incompetence of that regime

 by /zn/
5 years 10 months ago
 Total posts:   6758  
 Joined:  Jun 28 2015
United States of America   Maine
Hall of Fame

snackdaddy wrote:When grading overall drafts I always felt including late rounders is a moot point. How many GM's hit a lot on day 3 picks? Most those guys don't end up good NFL players. A few turn out ok, some round out the depth chart and some don't make it at all.


So if a team is better than average at finding lower round picks who can play, they are drafting above the norm.

 by BobCarl
5 years 10 months ago
 Total posts:   4283  
 Joined:  Mar 08 2017
United States of America   LA Coliseum
Superstar

R4L wrote: Snead's draft record on picks


I heard that Snead did a great job drafting in Atlanta, before joining the Rams

does anyone have the good vs bad info from his Atlanta days?

 by Elvis
5 years 10 months ago
 Total posts:   38377  
 Joined:  Mar 28 2015
United States of America   Los Angeles
Administrator

I definitely think you have to do a pre Fisher and post Fisher analysis. With the Rams there's a high level of collaboration between the HC and GM so it's pretty hard to analyze Snead independent of the HC he's working for/with.

You also have to consider what we did with some of our picks: Got Sammy Watkins for a year, got Marcus Peters, got Brandin Cooks, got Aquib Talib.

In the end the only metric that really matters is wins and losses. If they're winning, they're doing it right...

 by R4L
5 years 10 months ago
 Total posts:   1301  
 Joined:  May 08 2017
United States of America   Dayton, Ohio
Pro Bowl

dieterbrock wrote:Agreed.
I find it hard to consider anything after a 3rd rounder to be a miss.
I also don't know how to judge the hit/misses from the Fisher era, because of the offensive incompetence of that regime

.
I just included them because some complained that i didn't calculate the whole draft. And i included last year's draft because Kupp and Johnson were big hits imo. It's just for fun.

 by dieterbrock
5 years 10 months ago
 Total posts:   11512  
 Joined:  Mar 31 2015
United States of America   New Jersey
Hall of Fame

R4L wrote:.
I just included them because some complained that i didn't calculate the whole draft. And i included last year's draft because Kupp and Johnson were big hits imo. It's just for fun. A side note, Snead is also very good at UDFAs with 13 still in the league.

Well IMO, anyone who is criticizing the Rams draft (or any team for that matter), isn't really criticizing the players chosen as much as they are complaining that the team didn't take players they prefer. Only time will tell if the team got it right.
I definitely like our 1st round pick, Cooks....

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63 posts Mar 28 2024