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 by Elvis
6 years 1 month ago
 Total posts:   38381  
 Joined:  Mar 28 2015
United States of America   Los Angeles
Administrator

http://www.espn.com/blog/los-angeles-ra ... ot-offense

Rams' Super Bowl chances could hinge on defense, not offense

Alden Gonzalez
ESPN Staff Writer

Here's a look at the Super Bowl prospects of the Los Angeles Rams, who finished the season 11-5. The tiers consist of: Realistic Super Bowl expectations; Should contend, but there are question marks; Middle of the pack; Lots of work to do; and Nowhere close.

Westgate odds to win Super Bowl LIII: 25-1.

Image
Rams brass should have a better idea what kind of players to add to Wade Phillips' defense, and the front office has its work cut out on that score this offseason. Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports

Should contend, but there are question marks: Expectations have risen dramatically for the Rams, enough so that a large segment of the fan base will no doubt be disappointed with the team's latest Super Bowl odds. The Rams led the NFL in points this past season and should only be better on offense in their second year under coach and playcaller Sean McVay. Jared Goff, established as the team's franchise quarterback, will be entering his third season, and there's at least a decent chance the entire starting offense will return intact around him.

But the same can't be said on defense, with safety Lamarcus Joyner, cornerback Trumaine Johnson and outside linebacker Connor Barwin all slated for unrestricted free agency. The Rams could also have some tough contractual decisions to make with edge rusher Robert Quinn and inside linebacker Mark Barron. Les Snead, entering his seventh offseason as the general manager, will focus on scheme fits for defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, which should be a lot easier to identify now that an entire season has been played.

History, however, is not on the Rams' side. From the start of 1990 to the end of 2016, 23 teams did what the 2017 Rams just pulled off and improved by seven or more victories from one season to the next. But those teams averaged 3.8 fewer wins the following season, which is why McVay knows nothing is promised.

"Everything is earned in this league," McVay said after winning the Associated Press Coach of the Year Award at NFL Honors on Saturday, which came after Todd Gurley was named AP Offensive Player of the Year and Aaron Donald was named AP Defensive Player of the Year. "Just because we won the division this year doesn't mean anything going into next year. You feel really good about the players we have in place, but you have to earn it every single day. It's a very humbling league."

 by PARAM
6 years 1 month ago
 Total posts:   12186  
 Joined:  Jul 15 2015
Barbados   Just far enough North of Philadelphia
Hall of Fame

History, however, is not on the Rams' side. From the start of 1990 to the end of 2016, 23 teams did what the 2017 Rams just pulled off and improved by seven or more victories from one season to the next. But those teams averaged 3.8 fewer wins the following season, which is why McVay knows nothing is promised.


History is not on the Rams side as far as having 11 wins or more in 2018. The facts are this: of those 23 teams, only three repeated their win total or improved upon it. They were the 1998 Jets, the 2015 Texans and the 2013 Colts. One reason they may have managed it is they were all 2-14 or worse the year before their 7 win + performance. The Jets went from 1-15 to 9-7 to 12-4. Houston went from 2-14 to 9-7 to 9-7. And Indy went from 2-14 to 11-5 to 11-5.

On the other side of the coin there were three teams who had records of 14 wins or more. Is it a huge surprise they dropped off??? Only one (Pittsburgh 2005) had double digit wins the next season (11-5). But they did win the Superbowl that year despite dropping 4 in the win column. :idea: Another team, SF dropped 2 wins off their 2011 pace (13-3) with 11 wins and lost the Superbowl. In fact 7 of those 23 teams went to the postseason the year after the huge improvement. And 3 of those 23 teams didn't make the postseason in the season of that 7 win + improvement! The article fails to mention that.

One of those 23 teams to make the postseason the year after that huge improvement was the 2000 Rams. Armed with an explosive offense the 1999 Rams scored more points than anybody else in the NFL and the following year that offense carried them to the postseason, despite dropping 3 in the win column. The numbers show it's not common to make such a huge improvement of 7 wins or more and maintain it. But the numbers also show that 7 win improvement doesn't mean you can make it to the playoffs the following year (7 of the 23 did) or the Superbowl (2 of the 23 did).

Everyone knows nothing is promised. The fans, McVay and the players. They don't need some random chart of 7 wins of improvement to convince them. Sure just 26% of those teams won 10 games the next year but on the other hand 26% of those teams won 10 games the next year. Hell 30.4% made the playoffs the next year!!! And like I said 2 went to the Superbowl.

It's equally convincing to say making it back to the Superbowl in consecutive seasons is rare. There have been 52 Superbowls played and of the 102 participating teams (can't count SB52) just 21 made it back the next year. Hell only 8 won it back to back. Daunting odds but we don't need a chart on Superbowls to convince us. :idea:

Let's be honest. Nobody knows for sure but the Rams appear to be in a good place and set up for success over the near future. I don't care if they have less wins next year. They could go 10-6 or 10-5-1 and win the Superbowl. IMHO, statements like 'after improving by 7 wins or more, the average drop the following year is 3.8'. It suggests "don't expect the postseason again in 2018". I think they'll be there, period.

 by actionjack
6 years 1 month ago
 Total posts:   3899  
 Joined:  May 19 2016
United States of America   Sactown
Superstar

PARAM wrote:History is not on the Rams side as far as having 11 wins or more in 2018. The facts are this: of those 23 teams, only three repeated their win total or improved upon it. They were the 1998 Jets, the 2015 Texans and the 2013 Colts. One reason they may have managed it is they were all 2-14 or worse the year before their 7 win + performance. The Jets went from 1-15 to 9-7 to 12-4. Houston went from 2-14 to 9-7 to 9-7. And Indy went from 2-14 to 11-5 to 11-5.

On the other side of the coin there were three teams who had records of 14 wins or more. Is it a huge surprise they dropped off??? Only one (Pittsburgh 2005) had double digit wins the next season (11-5). But they did win the Superbowl that year despite dropping 4 in the win column. :idea: Another team, SF dropped 2 wins off their 2011 pace (13-3) with 11 wins and lost the Superbowl. In fact 7 of those 23 teams went to the postseason the year after the huge improvement. And 3 of those 23 teams didn't make the postseason in the season of that 7 win + improvement! The article fails to mention that.

One of those 23 teams to make the postseason the year after that huge improvement was the 2000 Rams. Armed with an explosive offense the 1999 Rams scored more points than anybody else in the NFL and the following year that offense carried them to the postseason, despite dropping 3 in the win column. The numbers show it's not common to make such a huge improvement of 7 wins or more and maintain it. But the numbers also show that 7 win improvement doesn't mean you can make it to the playoffs the following year (7 of the 23 did) or the Superbowl (2 of the 23 did).

Everyone knows nothing is promised. The fans, McVay and the players. They don't need some random chart of 7 wins of improvement to convince them. Sure just 26% of those teams won 10 games the next year but on the other hand 26% of those teams won 10 games the next year. Hell 30.4% made the playoffs the next year!!! And like I said 2 went to the Superbowl.

It's equally convincing to say making it back to the Superbowl in consecutive seasons is rare. There have been 52 Superbowls played and of the 102 participating teams (can't count SB52) just 21 made it back the next year. Hell only 8 won it back to back. Daunting odds but we don't need a chart on Superbowls to convince us. :idea:

Let's be honest. Nobody knows for sure but the Rams appear to be in a good place and set up for success over the near future. I don't care if they have less wins next year. They could go 10-6 or 10-5-1 and win the Superbowl. IMHO, statements like 'after improving by 7 wins or more, the average drop the following year is 3.8'. It suggests "don't expect the postseason again in 2018". I think they'll be there, period.


I agree the record doesnt mean much, it is all about the playoffs. But I expect this team to win 10 games with this roster. They have to improve of defense though. Also the offense will have to deal with teams adjusting to what the Rams did well this past season.

 by BobCarl
6 years 1 month ago
 Total posts:   4283  
 Joined:  Mar 08 2017
United States of America   LA Coliseum
Superstar

PARAM wrote:History is not on the Rams side as far as having 11 wins or more in 2018.


I'm curious though ... what is the Rams strength-of-schedule in 2017 vs 2018?

 by PARAM
6 years 1 month ago
 Total posts:   12186  
 Joined:  Jul 15 2015
Barbados   Just far enough North of Philadelphia
Hall of Fame

BobCarl wrote:I'm curious though ... what is the Rams strength-of-schedule in 2017 vs 2018?



Their strength of schedule in 2017 was .503.9 (129-127 at season's end).
Before the season it was .482 (121-130-5)

Their strength of schedule going into 2018 is .523.4 (134-122) but as always, that will be different at season's end.

 by BobCarl
6 years 1 month ago
 Total posts:   4283  
 Joined:  Mar 08 2017
United States of America   LA Coliseum
Superstar

PARAM wrote:Their strength of schedule going into 2018 is .523.4 (134-122) but as always, that will be different at season's end.

It will be slightly harder to get 11 wins.

I don't think 2017 was a fluke, but work is cut out for us already.

 by /zn/
6 years 1 month ago
 Total posts:   6758  
 Joined:  Jun 28 2015
United States of America   Maine
Hall of Fame

actionjack wrote:I agree the record doesnt mean much, it is all about the playoffs. But I expect this team to win 10 games with this roster. They have to improve of defense though. Also the offense will have to deal with teams adjusting to what the Rams did well this past season.


Defense is important this off-season, no question.

But they also need OL depth. Whitworth and Sullivan won't last forever and the 3 other starters are all FAs after this season.

 by Hacksaw
6 years 1 month ago
 Total posts:   24523  
 Joined:  Apr 15 2015
United States of America   AT THE BEACH
Moderator

We can get better and I'm sure that's the plan. A lot went out way but with more time together and by filling up some holes / depth, we could also improve.

 by BobCarl
6 years 1 month ago
 Total posts:   4283  
 Joined:  Mar 08 2017
United States of America   LA Coliseum
Superstar

Hacksaw wrote:We can get better and I'm sure that's the plan. A lot went out way but with more time together and by filling up some holes / depth, we could also improve.


The headline could go the other way .... "STOPPING the Rams from getting to the Super Bowl hinges on the Rams opponent's defense, not offense."

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9 posts Mar 29 2024