Conference Championship and Super Bowl Thread
PostPosted:3 months 2 weeks ago
Kansas City (13-6) @ Baltimore (14-4)
Lamar is the favorite to win the MVP Award. It would be his second. Mahomes has two MVPs. This should be a classic matchup. Before we get into that, this is Mahomes 6th CCG in the last 6 years. And that's not even a record....Brady went to 8 straight from 2011-2018. He was 5-3. Mahomes is 3-2 with both losses coming in OT. The Chiefs were not the Chiefs of old all season. And yet, here they are in the CCG again. We should have seen it coming.
Baltimore has been steady all season. They haven't had consecutive losses and they've had lopsided wins in week 4 ( Cleveland 25 pts), week 7 (Detroit 32 pts), week 9 (Seattle 34 pts) and week 17 (Miami 37 pts). Three of those were against playoff teams. The combined deficit of their 4 losses was 19 points. Many believe the Ravens are going to the Superbowl.
But they're playing Mahomes and the Chiefs, who've been just the opposite. Fighting and clawing all season long. They had three comfortable wins (vs Chicago, N.England and the WC game vs Miami). The rest were dogfights. But somehow, when the dust settled, here they are, needing 1 win to get to the Superbowl.
Baltimore is a pressure D. They get pressure with their DL and they blitz LBers and DBs. But is that a wise approach to Mahomes? We might find out. But they might be wise to bluff blitzes more often than actually using them. Although he can be chased off his mark, he improvises so well and does much of his damage in those situations. He has a lack of weapons among his receivers. Kelce (93 rec), Rice (79 rec) and not much more (the next WR has 27). Pacheco is a helluva RB though. Violent is the best way to describe him. And they've run the ball well of late...132, 123, 147 and 146 the last 4 games (5.0 per att). They averaged 6.1 vs Buffalo.
The Chiefs D has been playing well. Spags may be a shitty head coach but he's a damn good DC. But they are faced with a similar conundrum. Blitz Lamar or contain him? He has more weapons than he's ever had in his career. Flowers, OBJ, Agholor and Likely, who has 23 receptions since taking over for Andrews (7 games) with 6 TDs in his last 6 games. And Andrews could be back. Baltimore ran for 2661 yards (Lamar 821, #1) so the KC D is going to get tested (they allowed 182 to the Bills and 157 to the Raiders in week 16; 637 in their last 5 games....127/g). I think they'd be even better if the rookie Keaton Mitchell (8.4 ypc on 47 att) didn't get injured. It's going to have all the drama any CCG has and I don't know if this isn't the best matchup possible. Buffalo was good but they have a lot of injuries.....and Allen seems to make a bonehead play every now and then.
I'm gonna go out on a limb here and pick Baltimore, 26-20 but you never know with Mahomes.
Detroit (14-5) @ San Francisco (13-5)
The bad assed 49ers vs the knee biting Lions. I'm gonna watch!!
The Lions signed Zach Ertz due to the injury to Brock Wright. LaPorta isn't 100%. Khalif Raymond probably won't play. But Goff still has a large array of weapons. St. Brown, Reynolds, Jameson Williams, Gibbs, Montgomery and even a dinged up LaPorta has 12 receptions this postseason. What Ertz will provide is anybody's guess. The question is, can the Detroit D stop SF? They haven't allowed 100 yards on the ground since week 14 (407 yards the last 4 games 3.4 ypc). And against Tampa, who we all thought would blitz the hell out of Goff, they brought some blitzes from the secondary that seemed to give Baker fits. They also have 9 interceptions the last 5 weeks, along with 17 sacks. They are going to need to disrupt Purdy.
SF has a star studded cast. Deebo (he's only 50/50), Aiyuk, McCaffrey, Kittle, etc. They scored 30 or more in 9 of the 17 games this season. But a funny thing happened to Brock Purdy in 4 of their 5 losses. He was pressured (10 sacks) and he panicked throwing 9 interceptions. In fact in those 4 losses, he threw a pick every 13 attempts. They barely got by Green Bay and though Purdy ended up with 245 yards passing, 1 TD, 0 Int and just 1 sack, he missed some guys badly and 2 picks were dropped. I don't know who else saw it but he was demonstrative towards the receivers, seemingly blaming some for the problems. Can Mr. Irrelevant handle the pressure (and stay healthy for 60 minutes)?
On D, SF will surely pressure Goff. They know him pretty well and they know what bothers him. And we all know they're dirty. In fact, both these teams play in the margins of legality. During the game last week, the TV crew made it known the niners hadn't allowed a 100 rusher in 51 games. Not only did that streak end but it should have ended 6 weeks ago when they allowed Arizona to rush for 234 yards. The only reason they didn't have a 100 yard rusher is because everybody was doing well. Conner had 86 on 14 carries (6.1). Demercado had 64 on 4 attempts (16.0). Carter had 27 on 3 rushes (9.0) and Murray had 49 on 6 (8.0). If Detroit has a chance to win, it'll require a huge effort on the ground. They have the horses to do it too.
I'm gonna go with my heart and not my head to pick the Lions 29-26. Maybe SF will allow two 100 yard rushers this week?
Have fun watching the games!!!!
Lamar is the favorite to win the MVP Award. It would be his second. Mahomes has two MVPs. This should be a classic matchup. Before we get into that, this is Mahomes 6th CCG in the last 6 years. And that's not even a record....Brady went to 8 straight from 2011-2018. He was 5-3. Mahomes is 3-2 with both losses coming in OT. The Chiefs were not the Chiefs of old all season. And yet, here they are in the CCG again. We should have seen it coming.
Baltimore has been steady all season. They haven't had consecutive losses and they've had lopsided wins in week 4 ( Cleveland 25 pts), week 7 (Detroit 32 pts), week 9 (Seattle 34 pts) and week 17 (Miami 37 pts). Three of those were against playoff teams. The combined deficit of their 4 losses was 19 points. Many believe the Ravens are going to the Superbowl.
But they're playing Mahomes and the Chiefs, who've been just the opposite. Fighting and clawing all season long. They had three comfortable wins (vs Chicago, N.England and the WC game vs Miami). The rest were dogfights. But somehow, when the dust settled, here they are, needing 1 win to get to the Superbowl.
Baltimore is a pressure D. They get pressure with their DL and they blitz LBers and DBs. But is that a wise approach to Mahomes? We might find out. But they might be wise to bluff blitzes more often than actually using them. Although he can be chased off his mark, he improvises so well and does much of his damage in those situations. He has a lack of weapons among his receivers. Kelce (93 rec), Rice (79 rec) and not much more (the next WR has 27). Pacheco is a helluva RB though. Violent is the best way to describe him. And they've run the ball well of late...132, 123, 147 and 146 the last 4 games (5.0 per att). They averaged 6.1 vs Buffalo.
The Chiefs D has been playing well. Spags may be a shitty head coach but he's a damn good DC. But they are faced with a similar conundrum. Blitz Lamar or contain him? He has more weapons than he's ever had in his career. Flowers, OBJ, Agholor and Likely, who has 23 receptions since taking over for Andrews (7 games) with 6 TDs in his last 6 games. And Andrews could be back. Baltimore ran for 2661 yards (Lamar 821, #1) so the KC D is going to get tested (they allowed 182 to the Bills and 157 to the Raiders in week 16; 637 in their last 5 games....127/g). I think they'd be even better if the rookie Keaton Mitchell (8.4 ypc on 47 att) didn't get injured. It's going to have all the drama any CCG has and I don't know if this isn't the best matchup possible. Buffalo was good but they have a lot of injuries.....and Allen seems to make a bonehead play every now and then.
I'm gonna go out on a limb here and pick Baltimore, 26-20 but you never know with Mahomes.
Detroit (14-5) @ San Francisco (13-5)
The bad assed 49ers vs the knee biting Lions. I'm gonna watch!!
The Lions signed Zach Ertz due to the injury to Brock Wright. LaPorta isn't 100%. Khalif Raymond probably won't play. But Goff still has a large array of weapons. St. Brown, Reynolds, Jameson Williams, Gibbs, Montgomery and even a dinged up LaPorta has 12 receptions this postseason. What Ertz will provide is anybody's guess. The question is, can the Detroit D stop SF? They haven't allowed 100 yards on the ground since week 14 (407 yards the last 4 games 3.4 ypc). And against Tampa, who we all thought would blitz the hell out of Goff, they brought some blitzes from the secondary that seemed to give Baker fits. They also have 9 interceptions the last 5 weeks, along with 17 sacks. They are going to need to disrupt Purdy.
SF has a star studded cast. Deebo (he's only 50/50), Aiyuk, McCaffrey, Kittle, etc. They scored 30 or more in 9 of the 17 games this season. But a funny thing happened to Brock Purdy in 4 of their 5 losses. He was pressured (10 sacks) and he panicked throwing 9 interceptions. In fact in those 4 losses, he threw a pick every 13 attempts. They barely got by Green Bay and though Purdy ended up with 245 yards passing, 1 TD, 0 Int and just 1 sack, he missed some guys badly and 2 picks were dropped. I don't know who else saw it but he was demonstrative towards the receivers, seemingly blaming some for the problems. Can Mr. Irrelevant handle the pressure (and stay healthy for 60 minutes)?
On D, SF will surely pressure Goff. They know him pretty well and they know what bothers him. And we all know they're dirty. In fact, both these teams play in the margins of legality. During the game last week, the TV crew made it known the niners hadn't allowed a 100 rusher in 51 games. Not only did that streak end but it should have ended 6 weeks ago when they allowed Arizona to rush for 234 yards. The only reason they didn't have a 100 yard rusher is because everybody was doing well. Conner had 86 on 14 carries (6.1). Demercado had 64 on 4 attempts (16.0). Carter had 27 on 3 rushes (9.0) and Murray had 49 on 6 (8.0). If Detroit has a chance to win, it'll require a huge effort on the ground. They have the horses to do it too.
I'm gonna go with my heart and not my head to pick the Lions 29-26. Maybe SF will allow two 100 yard rushers this week?
Have fun watching the games!!!!