[PARAM]

Kansas City (13-6) @ Baltimore (14-4)

Lamar is the favorite to win the MVP Award. It would be his second. Mahomes has two MVPs. This should be a classic matchup. Before we get into that, this is Mahomes 6th CCG in the last 6 years. And that's not even a record....Brady went to 8 straight from 2011-2018. He was 5-3. Mahomes is 3-2 with both losses coming in OT. The Chiefs were not the Chiefs of old all season. And yet, here they are in the CCG again. We should have seen it coming.

Baltimore has been steady all season. They haven't had consecutive losses and they've had lopsided wins in week 4 ( Cleveland 25 pts), week 7 (Detroit 32 pts), week 9 (Seattle 34 pts) and week 17 (Miami 37 pts). Three of those were against playoff teams. The combined deficit of their 4 losses was 19 points. Many believe the Ravens are going to the Superbowl.

But they're playing Mahomes and the Chiefs, who've been just the opposite. Fighting and clawing all season long. They had three comfortable wins (vs Chicago, N.England and the WC game vs Miami). The rest were dogfights. But somehow, when the dust settled, here they are, needing 1 win to get to the Superbowl.

Baltimore is a pressure D. They get pressure with their DL and they blitz LBers and DBs. But is that a wise approach to Mahomes? We might find out. But they might be wise to bluff blitzes more often than actually using them. Although he can be chased off his mark, he improvises so well and does much of his damage in those situations. He has a lack of weapons among his receivers. Kelce (93 rec), Rice (79 rec) and not much more (the next WR has 27). Pacheco is a helluva RB though. Violent is the best way to describe him. And they've run the ball well of late...132, 123, 147 and 146 the last 4 games (5.0 per att). They averaged 6.1 vs Buffalo.

The Chiefs D has been playing well. Spags may be a shitty head coach but he's a damn good DC. But they are faced with a similar conundrum. Blitz Lamar or contain him? He has more weapons than he's ever had in his career. Flowers, OBJ, Agholor and Likely, who has 23 receptions since taking over for Andrews (7 games) with 6 TDs in his last 6 games. And Andrews could be back. Baltimore ran for 2661 yards (Lamar 821, #1) so the KC D is going to get tested (they allowed 182 to the Bills and 157 to the Raiders in week 16; 637 in their last 5 games....127/g). I think they'd be even better if the rookie Keaton Mitchell (8.4 ypc on 47 att) didn't get injured. It's going to have all the drama any CCG has and I don't know if this isn't the best matchup possible. Buffalo was good but they have a lot of injuries.....and Allen seems to make a bonehead play every now and then.

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and pick Baltimore, 26-20 but you never know with Mahomes.

Detroit (14-5) @ San Francisco (13-5)
The bad assed 49ers vs the knee biting Lions. I'm gonna watch!!

The Lions signed Zach Ertz due to the injury to Brock Wright. LaPorta isn't 100%. Khalif Raymond probably won't play. But Goff still has a large array of weapons. St. Brown, Reynolds, Jameson Williams, Gibbs, Montgomery and even a dinged up LaPorta has 12 receptions this postseason. What Ertz will provide is anybody's guess. The question is, can the Detroit D stop SF? They haven't allowed 100 yards on the ground since week 14 (407 yards the last 4 games 3.4 ypc). And against Tampa, who we all thought would blitz the hell out of Goff, they brought some blitzes from the secondary that seemed to give Baker fits. They also have 9 interceptions the last 5 weeks, along with 17 sacks. They are going to need to disrupt Purdy.

SF has a star studded cast. Deebo (he's only 50/50), Aiyuk, McCaffrey, Kittle, etc. They scored 30 or more in 9 of the 17 games this season. But a funny thing happened to Brock Purdy in 4 of their 5 losses. He was pressured (10 sacks) and he panicked throwing 9 interceptions. In fact in those 4 losses, he threw a pick every 13 attempts. They barely got by Green Bay and though Purdy ended up with 245 yards passing, 1 TD, 0 Int and just 1 sack, he missed some guys badly and 2 picks were dropped. I don't know who else saw it but he was demonstrative towards the receivers, seemingly blaming some for the problems. Can Mr. Irrelevant handle the pressure (and stay healthy for 60 minutes)?

On D, SF will surely pressure Goff. They know him pretty well and they know what bothers him. And we all know they're dirty. In fact, both these teams play in the margins of legality. During the game last week, the TV crew made it known the niners hadn't allowed a 100 rusher in 51 games. Not only did that streak end but it should have ended 6 weeks ago when they allowed Arizona to rush for 234 yards. The only reason they didn't have a 100 yard rusher is because everybody was doing well. Conner had 86 on 14 carries (6.1). Demercado had 64 on 4 attempts (16.0). Carter had 27 on 3 rushes (9.0) and Murray had 49 on 6 (8.0). If Detroit has a chance to win, it'll require a huge effort on the ground. They have the horses to do it too.

I'm gonna go with my heart and not my head to pick the Lions 29-26. Maybe SF will allow two 100 yard rushers this week?

Have fun watching the games!!!!

[max]

Mahomes is the best QB of this generation. Betting against him is very close to betting against Brady. I’m not doing it, especially now that KC has a strong D. Give me the Chiefs in a close one that has everyone saying Mahomes is just too good. 27-24

I’m still not convinced Purdy is good enough to win a big game against a really good team. Detroit will find a way to hit him, and they will hit him very hard. Thats who they are. I’m just curious to see if they break him in itsy bitsy pieces. It’s very possible. Hutchinson is a monster.
I’m going with Detroit because I think Goff is that much better than Purdy to make up for the difference in team talent. 20-17

[PARAM]

What I failed to include was previous playoff history between the teams.

Kansas City lost the Wild Card game to Baltimore back in 2010, 30-7. Matt Cassell was the Chiefs QB, Todd Haley the head coach, Charlie Weiss (OC) and Romeo Crennel (DC). Since then, the Chiefs have won 4 of 6 regular season meetings.

Detroit beat SF to win the NFL Championship in 1957, 31-27. Then in 1983, they lost to SF 24-23 on a late TD pass from Montana to Freddie Solomon. I wonder how that game would have turned out had Gary Danielson not thrown 5 picks?

[max]

Mahomes usually lights up the Ravens D. No reason to think he won’t do it again, with a healthy Kelce. Only question is can Chiefs improved D do well enough against Lamar. I think yes.

Detroit is a totally different organization since Henry Fords great granddaughter took over team. Sheila Ford Hamp is an impressive lady. She took over the reigns in 2020, cleaned house, hired Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell. My hats off to her. She’s extremely smart and competitive. Hell of an owner, you can make an argument that she’s the biggest reason for the Lions transformation.

[actionjack]

Baltimore is just too good this year, Lamar is playing his best football of his career and the Ravens defense is fast as hell. We will hear after this game that Mahomes has no weapons. Baltimore by 7+

Niner-Lions should be a war, going to be won in the trenches. Which ever QB has the most time wins. Detroit has a great o-line so I think they win this one in a tight contest. I dont like either team but can never cheer for the whiners to win.

[Elvis]

Balt -3.5
SF -7

[max]

Take KC and Detroit with the points.

[Elvis]

Take KC and Detroit with the points.

I'm with you on KC, not sure about Detroit...

[actionjack]

You gents are over valuing Mahomes and chiefs, probably played their best game last week, dont think it happens twice. Ravens D>>> than banged up Bills D.

Will see...

[PARAM]

You gents are over valuing Mahomes and chiefs, probably played their best game last week, dont think it happens twice. Ravens D>>> than banged up Bills D.

Will see...

I agree, Baltimore should win......but think Cowboys. Something seems to always happen with Baltimore that ends their season. And this year it could be the defending champs. I hope not because I'm tired of KC.