[Elvis]

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/14/sport ... .html?_r=0

Winning in the N.F.L. Preseason Could Be a Bad Sign

By VICTOR MATHER

N.F.L. preseason games, which began in earnest on Thursday night, are regularly derided as meaningless. A tedious method to sort out the future backups from the soon-to-be-cut. A chance for top players to be injured. A cash grab with high-priced tickets, food and parking for an inferior product.

Coaches are reluctant to play their best players or show off their offensive and defensive schemes. No one wants to get hurt. The end result looks like football, but without consequence or passion.

Still, when fans see their team perform well in exhibitions, they may have at least a glimmer of hope that the new season will be a good one.

Well, shut off that glimmer. A strong preseason performance in the N.F.L. not only does not predict a good season, it could actually be a sign of a bad one.

In the last 10 years, 18 teams have been unbeaten and untied in preseason play. Those teams went on to post a combined regular-season record of only 130-158.

In some cases, a good preseason did herald a successful year. The Broncos parlayed a perfect preseason in 2005 into a 13-3 record, and the 2013 Seahawks won the Super Bowl after a 4-0 preseason.

But more often, the preseason wonders flopped when the games started to count. In 2013, the Redskins, who had won 10 games the previous season, fell to 3-13. The 2011 Rams won all four games in the preseason, then went on to win just two regular-season games.

The most egregious case was the 2008 Lions. They swept through the preseason, outscoring their four opponents by 80-32. Among their victims were the Giants, who would go 12-4 that year.

The Lions fell apart in the regular season. Trying out Jon Kitna, Dan Orlovsky and Daunte Culpepper as starting quarterbacks, Detroit staggered to the league’s first 0-16 record.

In contrast to the summertime highfliers, eventual Super Bowl champions generally had undistinguished preseasons. Even with the 2013 Seahawks’ 4-0 record, the winners of the last 10 Super Bowls have posted a combined preseason record of only 23-17.

Preseason games have value to fringe players, coaches, and teams’ bottom lines. And FiveThirtyEight.com last year showed that the preseason can indicate whether a new quarterback is likely to succeed.

But in general, the prevailing wisdom about the preseason is correct. A great record is not a great sign for the future.

[Elvis]

I used to be a pretty big proponent that when the 1's were going against the 1's those results meant something. But even that doesn't seem true to me anymore.

But if the eyeball test tells us anything, this year's team looks a lot like last year's team...

[The Ripper]

A good example is the Patriots they seem to lose most of their preseason games.

[snackdaddy]

I used to be a pretty big proponent that when the 1's were going against the 1's those results meant something. But even that doesn't seem true to me anymore.

But if the eyeball test tells us anything, this year's team looks a lot like last year's team...

Yeah, there's always the inevitable "its just the preseason" response when people are concerned about the level of play. And there is something to that. So all we have to go on is last season. Last season we didn't seem to play with any sense of urgency during the preseason and it carried over to the start of the regular season. Losing big to a very beatable Vikings team.

If we showed a good offense in previous seasons, I wouldn't worry much about it. But we were not good. In fact we were bad. So when I see the lackluster performance again in the first game, I don't sit here thinking "its just the preseason". I think "here we go again." At some point they're gonna have to play better to convince me we're improving. Because from where I'm sitting I don't see it.

[Elvis]

If we showed a good offense in previous seasons, I wouldn't worry much about it. But we were not good. In fact we were bad. So when I see the lackluster performance again in the first game, I don't sit here thinking "its just the preseason". I think "here we go again." At some point they're gonna have to play better to convince me we're improving. Because from where I'm sitting I don't see it.

I hear you snack. For me that point is the regular season. But also, i'm really not expecting a lot of improvement from the offense. I'm not sure a Jeff Fisher/Frank Cignetti offense has a lot of upside.

The upside for a Jeff Fisher/Gregg Williams defense on the other hand, is pretty darned high.

But who knows what will actually happen? Week one of the regular season is when, for me, we'll start to see what's what.

Of course that doesn't mean i won't watch as much preseason and training camp as i possibly can...

[RedAlice]

A good example is the Patriots they seem to lose most of their preseason games.

A good example is our Rams in 2011. 4-0 in preseason. 2-14 in regular season.

[Hacksaw]

Fish seems like a guy with a plan and the plan right now is to see how ALL the players look in a game sitch. Winning isn't as important. BUT ,, It is a good thing to create a winning culture. It's gotta be comforting to have the depth if/when those inevitable injuries occur.

[TomSlick]

A good example is the Patriots they seem to lose most of their preseason games.

A good example is our Rams in 2011. 4-0 in preseason. 2-14 in regular season.

If I had my druthers, I'd take a 2-2 preseason. It doesn't matter much because come the season opener I'll be freaking nervous as hell and won't remember the preseason.

[Elvis]

A good example is the Patriots they seem to lose most of their preseason games.

A good example is our Rams in 2011. 4-0 in preseason. 2-14 in regular season.

Steve Spagnulo was the king of preseason: 10-2 with the Rams. In fact that was his motto: "I don't care if it's preseason or regular season, i'll get you 10 wins over 3 years."

But to be fair to those who do put stock in preseason games, they're not saying it's about wins and losses. They're looking at other things...

[TomSlick]

But to be fair to those who do put stock in preseason games, they're not saying it's about wins and losses. They're looking at other things...

Agreed, but the first preseason game is a really preliminary look at the squad. Maybe the players have camp legs (a little gassed). I'll leave it to the coaches to figure it out.