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 by aeneas1
6 years 2 months ago
 Total posts:   16894  
 Joined:  Sep 13 2015
United States of America   Norcal
Hall of Fame

so can mcvay and the rams keep this thing going, can they become a postseason regular and put a stranglehold on the nfc west for years to come?

in the 40 years since the league moved to a 16-game schedule (1978), only 28 teams have jumped 7 games or more in the win column vs the previous season, the 2017 and 1999 rams are 2 of these 28 teams. here's a look at how these fared for the 3-year stretch following their big jumps... so, for example, the 1997 jets jumped from 1 win to 9 wins, a +8 win change - the following year, after their big jump, the jets won 12 games, then 8 games, then 9... the 1999 rams jumped 9 games in the win column, and followed it up by winning 10 the following year, then 14, then 7:

03.png

and here's a look at team wins over the last 40 years, since the league moved to a 16-game schedule, blue text indicates postseason appearances - what will the rams column look like in 5 years?

02.png


01.png

 by BobCarl
6 years 2 months ago
 Total posts:   4283  
 Joined:  Mar 08 2017
United States of America   LA Coliseum
Superstar

aeneas1 wrote:so can mcvay and the rams keep this thing going,


improvement over 2017 is academic ... Tavon Austin's $15 million cap hit gets reduced to $5 mill dead money for 2018 and $0 for 2019 and Tru Jo's $17 million cap hit gets erased for 2018 ....

Now McVay gets to spend that $32 mill that Fisher borrowed from 2017 to wager on his 2016 team ... A 6th grader can spend that money more wisely ... is McVay smarter than a 6th grader?

Rams 2018 draft picks:
- First Round: No. 23
- Third Round: The Rams have their own third-round pick
- Fourth Round: The Rams have their own fourth-round pick
- Fifth Round: The Rams have their own fifth-round pick
- Sixth Round: The Rams have their own sixth-round pick plus two more


Unless McVay's head explodes and he turns into Jack Del Rio, I don't think us Rams fans have anything to feel but optimistic.

 by BobCarl
6 years 2 months ago
 Total posts:   4283  
 Joined:  Mar 08 2017
United States of America   LA Coliseum
Superstar

Dick84 wrote:Saying it's academic would be ignoring multiple factors .... The main thing, to me, is to continue building a solid program.


I may be ignoring the factors that went into the 2017 success ... and as far as I know, the Rams will not be firing their Head Coach this season. Am I wrong to assume that? I doubt that the Rams GM/draft guru will be fired. Maybe I'm wrong to assume that too. Will Gurley and/or Donald sit out the entire season? I assume that they won't. Should I have doubts that McVay or Goff will improve? I don't, I honestly think it is a given that they both will be even better in 2018.

And yes, please list the other factors that I ignored. My feelings won't be hurt. Really, they won't.

I said it was "academic" because of the multiple factors I listed listed ... each of those factors are opportunities for building upon the established program and culture that began in 2017.

 by snackdaddy
6 years 2 months ago
 Total posts:   9631  
 Joined:  May 30 2015
United States of America   Merced California
Hall of Fame

The law of averages says we will see injuries on the offensive line. So yeah, its going to take some work to maintain the success. But there is a good core of players and a good system to work with.

I'm not sure we can count on the top scoring team again, but the offense should still remain a good one. Plug a few holes on defense, add depth to the offensive line and we should be a double digit win team better prepared for a playoff run.

 by aeneas1
6 years 2 months ago
 Total posts:   16894  
 Joined:  Sep 13 2015
United States of America   Norcal
Hall of Fame

fwiw there's usually not a lot of room to improve when you jump 7+ in the win column, but there's a lot of room to drop, hard to offset big drops when there's not much room to book big gains, which impacts the 4-game drop average mentioned.

the 28 teams that saw a 7+ jump in wins averaged 12 wins the year they did it - to improve on 12 wins is a tall order, only 6% of the league has managed 13 or more wins in a season since 1978, hell of a lot easier to go down from 12 than up.

anyway the mentioned 4-game drop represents a return to the norm, which is 8 wins, the league average, from 12 wins to 8... of the teams that saw a 7+ win jump:

- 23% followed up the big jump with double digit wins the following year (including the 1999 rams).
- 42% booked a winning season the following year.
- 15% posted a .500 record.
- 42% booked a losing record.

 by BobCarl
6 years 2 months ago
 Total posts:   4283  
 Joined:  Mar 08 2017
United States of America   LA Coliseum
Superstar

Dick84 wrote:36 year old left tackle ...
Left guard with a substantial injury history ...
33 year old Center with major back injury history ...
... ok I ignored this factor in my first post of this discussion. I agree that this is a factor that shouldn't be dismissed when preparing for 2018, and I'm confident that McVay and Snead will address it with some new players. Exactly how they do it remains to be seen. I'm optimistic that the O-Line can be improved.

Also.. for whatever reason you decided not to put up the quote I shared about the history of teams with that kind of breakout season.
Yes history can repeat itself. If the last 5 coin flips came up tails, then the next coin flip could come up tails too. but I am of the belief that the next coin flip isn't contingent upon the outcome of past coin flips. Just the way I roll.

That being said ... I think it is entirely possible for the Rams to go 11-5 or even 10-6 in 2018 and have a better team than 2017. I believe that a team's W-L record is an indicator of how good they are, but not a definitive thermometer of how good they actually are.

 by pmill66
6 years 2 months ago
 Total posts:   152  
 Joined:  Jan 14 2017
United States of America   LA Coliseum
Rookie

Like the Rams to follow the Green Bay record, averaging 11 wins over the past 7 years. But would trade a down year or 2 for a Super Bowl win.

 by BobCarl
6 years 2 months ago
 Total posts:   4283  
 Joined:  Mar 08 2017
United States of America   LA Coliseum
Superstar

Dick84 wrote:But I think it has some merit.
yes it does have merit. thank you for your perspective.

I'm *very* positive about the Rams future.. I just think they're a couple of drafts away from having a very resilient and complete roster.
I'm thinking that way too. and ... With a good amount of cap $$ being available next season, I'm optimistic about FA acquisitions too.

 by sloramfan
6 years 2 months ago
 Total posts:   1581  
 Joined:  Jun 09 2015
United States of America   cen coast cal
Pro Bowl

im very positive about the players we have...

and especially the guys at the top, working the system... gotta have a vision, and i think our leaders have the positives to build from what they have seen... i think thier plan is already in motion...

after the year we had, how can anyone doubt the obvious... the new regime is on top of thier plan to move foward..

we literally just have to shore up some very small parts of our game.. ie run stopping...

go rams

slo

 by /zn/
6 years 2 months ago
 Total posts:   6758  
 Joined:  Jun 28 2015
United States of America   Maine
Hall of Fame

BobCarl wrote:improvement over 2017 is academic ... Tavon Austin's $15 million cap hit gets reduced to $5 mill dead money for 2018 and $0 for 2019 and Tru Jo's $17 million cap hit gets erased for 2018 ....

Now McVay gets to spend that $32 mill that Fisher borrowed from 2017 to wager on his 2016 team ... A 6th grader can spend that money more wisely ... is McVay smarter than a 6th grader?

Rams 2018 draft picks:
- First Round: No. 23
- Third Round: The Rams have their own third-round pick
- Fourth Round: The Rams have their own fourth-round pick
- Fifth Round: The Rams have their own fifth-round pick
- Sixth Round: The Rams have their own sixth-round pick plus two more


Unless McVay's head explodes and he turns into Jack Del Rio, I don't think us Rams fans have anything to feel but optimistic.


BC, they don't gain that 30+ M in cap space by losing Tru and Tavon. They have a certain amount of space BUT need to sign Donald, Joyner, and Watkins.

The issue with Tru becomes replacing him. If Tru was too expensive to sign longterm because of his demands, it was either let him walk or franchise him. The coach can say, well he's good but he's not worth what he's asking--a decision that puts them in the "let him walk or tag him" situation. One of the coaches who said that was McVay, in 2017, though probably he leaned a lot on Snead and Phillips in making that assessment. So 2 different coaches, first Fisher then McVay, made that call with Tru.

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19 posts Mar 28 2024